072  
FOCN45 CWWG 241900  
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DISCUSSION ISSUED BY THE PRAIRIE AND ARCTIC STORM  
PREDICTION CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 2:00 PM CDT TUESDAY MAY  
24 2016.  
 
ALERTS IN EFFECT... SPECIAL AIR QUALITY STATEMENT FOR AREAS NEAR  
FORT MCMURRAY.  
 
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW... SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WITH A WEAKENING SURFACE  
REFLECTION NEAR OUTLOOK THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM  
THE OUTLOOK LOW SOUTHWEST TO A SECOND UPPER LOW OVER NEVADA. LARGE  
UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR CAPE DORSET WITH A WEAK 998 MB SURFACE LOW  
ASSOCIATED. 998 MB SURFACE LOW TRACKING NORTHEAST TOWARDS NORTHERN  
LABRADOR IN THE STRONG FLOW AROUND THE CAPE DORSET UPPER LOW. 1005  
MB LOW NEAR FORT NELSON TRACKING EASTWARD. SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE  
EASTERN BEAUFORT ACROSS VICTORIA ISLAND AND NORTHERN MANITOBA.  
 
DISCUSSION...  
 
WESTERN PRAIRIES...SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER  
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW WHICH GENERATED ALL THE  
RAIN SITS OVER SOUTHWESTERN SASKATCHEWAN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
ALSO POSSIBLE FROM HINTON NORTHWARD TO PEACE RIVER AS THE LOW NEAR  
FORT NELSON AND ASOCTD TROUGH MOVES INTO NWRN ALBERTA.  
 
EASTERN PRAIRIES... COLD-CORE FUNNEL CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE THIS  
AFTERNOON OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SLOW  
MOVING LOW. BEST AREA APPEARS TO BE IN THE ELBOW-OUTLOOK-ASSINIBOIA  
CORRIDOR BENEATH THE UPPER LOW. ELSEWHERE IN SASKATCHEWAN,  
NON-SEVERE PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH MLCAPES IN THE  
200-500 J/KG RANGE AND SHEAR GENERALLY LESS THAN 20 KNOTS. WEAK  
SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA  
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, POSSIBLY ORGANIZED SOMEWHAT BY LAKE  
BREEZES AND TOPOGRAPHY.  
 
FORT NELSON LOW TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN PRAIRIES BRINGING  
A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES TO NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN, EXTREME  
NORTHERN MANITOBA AND SOUTHERN KIVALLIQ WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF  
FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT AND ON WEDNESDAY.  
 
ON WEDNESDAY, AND POSSIBLY CONTINUING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, A  
SERIES OF VORTICITY MAXIMA ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEAST OUT OF  
THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES TOWARDS SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN AND  
SOUTHERN MANITOBA, DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW OVER THE EASTERN  
DAKOTAS ON WEDNESDAY. PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH PRECIPITABLE  
WATER VALUES FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE 25 TO 30 MM RANGE ON  
WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR  
MOST OF THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIES AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH THE HIGHEST  
THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING WELL SOUTH OF THE  
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. AS SURFACE LOW PUSHES NORTHEASTWARDS OUT OF  
THE DAKOTAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS IS LIKELY OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA BUT EXACT LOCATION  
AND TIMING IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.  
 
EASTERN ARCTIC... SERIES OF SYSTEMS ROTATING ABOUT THE MEAN EASTERN  
ARCTIC UPPER LOW / ARCTIC VORTEX CONTINUES, KEEPING THE REGION  
GENERALLY COLD WITH OCCASIONAL SNOW. ONE OF THESE SYSTEMS IS  
EXPECTED TO AFFECT QIKIQTARJUAQ TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH 5 TO 10 CM OF  
SNOW TODAY FOLLOWED BY 2 TO 4 CM TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR ZERO  
SO SOME MELTING AND COMPACTION COULD LIMIT THE AMOUNTS.  
 
WESTERN ARCTIC...EXTENSIVE CLOUD AND SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS  
THE SOUTHERN MACKENZIE TODAY. LOW CLOUD/FOG ALONG THE COAST. OTWZ  
NIL SIG WX.  
 
END/STAMMERS/DE GROOT  
 
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