562
FOCN45 CWWG 081900
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DISCUSSION ISSUED BY THE PRAIRIE AND ARCTIC STORM
PREDICTION CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 2:00 PM CDT THURSDAY MAY
8 2025.
ALERTS IN EFFECT...SNOWFALL WARNING FOR NAUJAAT, NU. WIND WARNING
FOR KINNGAIT, NU. SPECIAL AIR QUALITY STATEMENT FOR PORTIONS OF
WEST-CENTRAL MANITOBA. WIND WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN.
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...ALOFT, AN UPPER LOW SITS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
WITH A ZONAL FLOW TO ITS SOUTH PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TO THE EAST, AN UPPER HIGH SITS
NEAR LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION WITH AN UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS
NORTHEAST TO THE UNGAVA PENINSULA THEN ARCS NORTH THROUGH FOXE
BASIN. AN UPPER LOW SITS OVER THE CANADIAN ARCTIC ARCHIPELAGO WITH A
LONG-WAVE TROUGH EAST-SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERN GREENLAND. SOUTH OF
THIS, A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE SITS NORTHEAST OF BAKER LAKE. ANOTHER
STRONG SHORTWAVE SITS OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA. LASTLY, A LONG-WAVE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN GREENLAND SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHERN
ONTARIO WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHEAST INTO LABRADOR.
AT THE SURFACE, A 1000 MB LOW SITS NEAR LA RONGE, SK WITH A COLD
FRONT THAT SWEEPS SOUTHWEST INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND A WARM
FRONT THAT ARCS NORTHEAST INTO HUDSON BAY THEN TURNS SHARPLY
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO MINNESOTA. NORTH OF THIS, A 981 MB LOW SITS
NEAR NAUJAAT WITH A WARM FRONT THAT ARCS EAST TO SOUTHAMPTON ISLAND
THEN DROPS SOUTH THROUGH HUDSON BAY. IT HAS A COLD FRONT THAT SWEEPS
WEST-SOUTHWEST TO GREAT SLAVE LAKE THEN LIFTS ACROSS YUKON INTO
NORTHERN ALASKA. LASTLY, A 1033 MB HIGH SITS OVER JAMES BAY WITH A
BROAD AXIS OF RIDGING RUNNING SOUTHWEST AND NORTHEAST.
DISCUSSION...
AB...SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA WILL PUSH NORTHEASTWARD
TODAY. HEAVIEST SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL STAY MAINLY TO THE
WEST AND NORTH OF THE CAPITAL. THE ODD LIGHTNING STRIKE IN BEHIND
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE SHOWERS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG RIDGING
BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW BY MEADOW LAKE ARE RESULTING IN GUSTS TO 60
KM/H IN LLOYDMINISTER. FURTHER SOUTH A COLD FRONT, VISIBLE ON
RADAR PERHAPS THANKS TO A BIT OF DUST, IS PASSING THROUGH
SOUTHERN ALBERTA. GUSTS AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT WERE STRONGER THAN
EXEPCTED, IN THE 70 TO 90 KM/H RANGE THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE NOW
DIMINISHING AND WARNINGS ARE NOT DEEMED TO BE REQUIRED.
SK/MB...MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA
TODAY AS THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH OVER ONTARIO TIGHTENS AGAINST
THE SURFACE LOW PUSHING INTO MANITOBA. SOUTHERLIES WILL STRENGTHEN TO
50 GUSTING 70 KM/H OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN MANITOBA EARLY TODAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FURTHER WEST, AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN MODERATE TO STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL PUSH INTO
THE REGION. WESTERLY WINDS AS HIGH AS 60 GUSTING 80 KM/H WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GRAIN BELT TODAY, THEN WEAKEN INTO THE 30 TO 40
KM/H RANGE AS THEY SPREAD THROUGH CENTRAL MANITOBA TONIGHT. A FEW
WIND-PRONE AREAS THROUGH WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PROVINCE ALREADY
OVER-ACHIEVED THIS MORNING WITH, NOTABLY, THE KINDERSLEY REGION
HAVING REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 70 ALONG WITH GUSTS OF 90 KM/H.
THESE WINDS WILL BE MONITORED THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH WARNINGS
EXPANDED AS REQUIRED.
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID- TO UPPER 20S AND WIDESPREAD RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES OF 30% OR LESS, IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY THAT WILL
SUPPORT FIRE GROWTH AND SPREAD.
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A
WARM-SECTOR TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON EXTENDING FROM WEST-CENTRAL
MANITOBA INTO SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN. SBCAPE VALUES WILL CLIMB INTO
THE 400 TO 800 J/KG RANGE ALONG THE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 20S AND A COMBINATION OF MOISTURE
RETURN AND CONVERGENCE PUSHES DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS. BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE LIMITED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS OF
UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR. AS LONG AS TEMPERATURES CAN REACH THEIR
EXPECTED HIGHS, THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE INHIBITION TO CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT, AND A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
INITIATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN TRACK EAST THROUGH THE EVENING,
GRADUALLY WEAKENING AFTER SUNDOWN.
A FEW MORE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY OVER SOUTHERN
MANITOBA AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION; IF SHOWERS ARE ABLE
TO FORM, THEY SHOULD PUSH SOUTH QUICKLY THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE
COLD FRONT PASSES.
NUMEROUS FIRES HAVE BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
PRAIRIES THE PAST FEW DAYS AND AS THEY GROW, THEIR SMOKE PLUMES ARE
BEGINNING TO GROW THICKER AND IMPACT MORE AREAS. THE FIRST SAQS OF
THE SEASON FOR MANITOBA WERE ISSUED THIS MORNING FOR THE WILDFIRE
BURNING WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE PAS; IT BROUGHT POOR AIR QUALITY TO
FLIN FLON OVERNIGHT AND THE PLUME WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE PAS LATER
TODAY AS WESTERLY WINDS MOVE INTO THE REGION. FIRES WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR GROWTH AND AIR QUALITY IMPACTS OVER THE COMING DAYS AS
FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT FIRE GROWTH.
LASTLY, AN AREA OF RAIN WILL PUSH ACROSS NORTHERN MANITOBA LATER
TODAY AND THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. IT WILL LIKELY TRANSITION
TO SNOW BY SATURDAY MORNING AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE CHURCHILL REGION
AND COLDER AIR IS INJECTED INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING A
BROAD 5 TO 10 MM OF RAIN TO PARTS OF NORTHERN MANITOBA WITH SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 5 CM POSSIBLE AFTER THE PRECIPITATION TYPE
TRANSITION OCCURS. STRONG, GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
PRECIP FRIDAY MORNING, LARGELY OVER UNINHABITED REGIONS OF EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN MANITOBA. GUSTS OF 70 TO 80 KM/H ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
LOW WILL ABATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES INTO NORTHERN
ONTARIO.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIES, BUT A MUCH STRONGER PUSH OF WARM AIR IS
POISED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL LIFT OUT OF SOUTHERN ALBERTA INTO THE CENTRAL PRAIRIES
THIS WEEKEND AND DRAW A MUCH HOTTER AIR MASS NORTH. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH AROUND 20C OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA
AND PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN, WHICH WOULD LIKELY BRING
DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION. DEW POINT VALUES
WILL LIKELY BE LOW AND PRECLUDE ANY ISSUES WITH HUMIDEX VALUES BUT
WILL LIKELY EHANCE THE FIRE DANGER HEADING INTO THE START OF NEXT
WEEK.
NU...THE KIVALLIQ LOW WILL SPREAD HEAVY SNOW EAST ALONG ITS WARM
FRONT TODAY. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 8-9 MM OF QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM
THURSDAY AND SLR VALUES THAT SIT AROUND 12:1 TO 15:1; THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN 10 TO 14 CM OF SNOW BY THE TIME IT BEGINS TO TAPER OFF
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS AREA OF MODERATE SNOW WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHERN BAFFIN ISLAND
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BUT HEAVY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT
AS MUCH OF A CONCERN AS THIS AREA OF SNOW WILL BE MORE PROGRESSIVE AS
IT TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. THE SNOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE ISLAND BY FRIDAY MORNING, LEAVING BEHIND BROADLY
5 TO 10 CM OF SNOW, THOUGH AMOUNTS MAY BE HIGHER OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE ISLAND AND LOWER IN COMMUNITIES WHERE WARMER
TEMPERATURES MOVE IN OR OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS REDUCE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE SNOW SHIELD, PRECIPITATION WILL
TRANSITION TO RAIN WITH A BAND OF FREEZING RAIN LIKELY. WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING ABOVE ZERO IN FOR MOST OF THE AREAS THAT HAVE A
FREEZING RAIN RISK AND THE INCREASINGLY PROGRESSIVE SPEED OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD, THE IMPACT OF THE FREEZING RAIN WILL BE
LIMITED.
AS THE KIVALLIQ LOW PUSHES TOWARDS BAFFIN ISLAND, STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN HUDSON BAY AND WESTERN HUDON STRAIT,
BRINGING WIDESPREAD WINDS UP TO 60 GUSTING 80 KM/H. IN KINNGAIT, AS
THE WINDS SHIFT WESTERLY AS THE LOW PASSES, WESTERLY WINDS UP TO 70
GUSTING 100 KM/H WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL
HOURS BEFORE EASING OVERNIGHT.
HOT ON THE HEELS OF THIS FIRST LOW, A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL PUSH ANOTHER ORGANIZED BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW INTO
SOUTHERN BAFFIN ISLAND ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING
ANOTHER 5 TO 10 CM OF SNOW TO KIMMIRUT (CYLC) AND IQALUIT (CYFB) BY
FRIDAY NIGHT, THOUGH AMOUNTS MAY BE ERODED IN KIMMIRUT AS MILD
TEMPERATURES ARE DRAWN TOWARDS THE COMMUNITY. OTHER PARTS OF BAFFIN
ISLAND WILL RECEIVE LIGHT SNOW AS THE PARENT SHORTWAVES LINGER OVER
THE ISLAND AND ONSHORE FLOW BRINGS OROGRAPHIC SNOW TO SOME AREAS AS
WELL.
NT ... NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED
END/DYKES/VROLIJK/BATE
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