156  
FXCN01 CWAO 241930  
 
DAYS 1 TO 7 UPDATED SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DISCUSSION - WEST  
 
PREVIOUS DAYS 1 TO 3 SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DISCUSSION AVAILABLE HERE:  
[HTTP://COLLABORATION.CMC.EC.GC.CA/CMC/CMOP/FXCN/20180424/FX_D1-3_WEST_2018042400.HTML]  
 
PREVIOUS DAYS 4 TO 7 SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DISCUSSION AVAILABLE HERE:  
[HTTP://COLLABORATION.CMC.EC.GC.CA/CMC/CMOP/FXCN/20180424/FX_D4-7_WEST_2018042400.HTML]  
 
DAYS 1 TO 3 DISCUSSION UPDATE:  
VALID 12Z TUESDAY APRIL 24 2018 - 12Z FRIDAY APRIL 27 2018  
 
GREAT SLAVE LAKE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH HUDSON BAY TOMORROW INTO BAFFIN  
ISLAND ON THURSDAY..  
PREFERRED GUIDANCE: RDPS/GDPS  
SCENARIO CONFIDENCE LEVEL: MEDIUM-HIGH  
FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THE NAM/GFS ARE STARTING TO LAG BEHIND THE  
CANADIAN/EUROPEAN MODELS CONSENSUS. WE ACCEPT THE CANADIAN MODELS SOLUTION  
SINCE THEY ARE WELL SUPPORTED BY THE EUROPEAN ONES.  
 
SYSTEM EMERGING FROM AK INTO WESTERN ARCTIC ON WEDNESDAY TO EASTERN PRAIRIES ON  
THURSDAY..  
PREFERRED GUIDANCE: GDPS  
SCENARIO CONFIDENCE LEVEL: MEDIUM  
EUROPEAN MODELS ARE ON THE PROGRESSIVE SIDE COMPARED TO GDPS/GFS/GEPS. LOOKING  
AT THE TRENDS WE DO NOTE THAT THE EUROPEAN MODELS TRENDED FASTER AND GFS  
TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER. THE GDPS SHOWS A GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THAT SYSTEM.  
SINCE THE GDPS SOLUTION IS FAIRLY WELL SUPPORTED BY THE GEPS MEAN AND THAT THE  
GFS TRENDED TOWARD THE CANADIAN MODELS, WE LEAN TOWARD THE GDPS SOLUTION WITH  
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.  
 
DAYS 4 TO 7 DISCUSSION UPDATE:  
VALID 12Z FRIDAY APRIL 27 2018 - 00Z TUESDAY MAY 01 2018  
 
BAFFIN ISLAND SYSTEM ON THURSDAY TRACKING NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY AND WEAKENING OVER  
ARCTIC ISLAND ON SATURDAY..  
PREFERRED GUIDANCE: GDPS  
SCENARIO CONFIDENCE LEVEL: MEDIUM  
AS FOR THE SHORT TERM THE GDPS IS FAIRLY WELL SUPPORTED BY THE GEPS/EUROPEAN  
MODELS. WE STILL BELIEVE IN THE GDPS SOLUTION IN THE LONGER TERM.  
 
SATURDAY PRAIRIES SYSTEM INTO HUDSON BAY TO BAFFIN ISLAND/NORTHERN QC/LABRADOR  
ON MONDAY..  
PREFERRED GUIDANCE: GEPS  
SCENARIO CONFIDENCE LEVEL: LOW  
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT OVER THE PRAIRIES ON SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY  
GEPS/GFS LAG BEHIND THE GDPS/ECMWF AND UKMET IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE. ON MONDAY  
GEPS/GFS ARE STILL THE SLOWEST WITH A LOW OVER HUDSON BAY. THE EUROPEAN MODELS  
ARE ALONE FURTHER NORTH WITH A LOW OVER BAFFIN ISLAND AND GDPS HAS ITS LOW OVER  
NORTHERN QC. THE INDIVIDUAL GEPS MEMBERS SHOW A WIDESPREAD SET OF SOLUTIONS. WE  
SEE NO CLEAR TREND SO AT THIS POINT THE GEPS MEANS LOOKS TO BE A DECENT  
COMPROMISE WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.  
 
SOUTHERN PRAIRIES SYSTEM ON MONDAY..  
PREFERRED GUIDANCE: GDPS  
SCENARIO CONFIDENCE LEVEL: LOW-MEDIUM  
REGARDING THE SYSTEM FORECAST SOUTH OF THE PRAIRIES ON MONDAY MORNING,  
GDPS/GEPS/ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT. GFS IS NORTH OF THIS CANADIAN  
MODELS/ECMWF CONSENSUS AND UKMET IS SOUTH OF IT. AT THE MOMENT WE HAVE NO GOOD  
REASON TO REJECT THE GDPS FOR THAT SYSTEM.  
 
THE COMPLETE VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION IS AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:  
[HTTP://COLLABORATION.CMC.EC.GC.CA/CMC/CMOP/FXCN/20180424/FX_D1-7_WEST_2018042412.HTML]  
 
END/JOSSART  
 
 
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