146  
FXCN01 CWAO 202100  
 
MAIN WX DISCUSSION  
 
PRAIRIES SYSTEM...  
PREFERRED MODEL: UKMET/ECMWF  
SCENARIO CONFIDENCE LEVEL: MEDIUM  
MDLS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGRMNT WITH PRAIRIES UPR TROF AND DOWNSTREAM UPR RDG  
FIRST HALF OF PD THEN THE CDN MDLS EXPECIALLY RDPS ARE SHOWING TOO MUCH  
APLITUDE WITH THE UPR TROF AND THE DOWNSTREAM UPR RDG AND ARE LIKELY OVRDONE. AS  
A RESULT, PRAIRIES SYSTEM IS NOT FAST ENUF MOVG NEWD INTO HNSBA BY 48H.  
PREFERRED FASTER UKMET/ECMWF WITH THAT FEATURE TRACKING SYSTEM FARTHER SE INTO  
THE BAY. MDLS AGREE FOR SIG SNOW OVER AB ELBOW AND RAIN OVER NRN SK- NRN  
MB EARLY TO MID PD. CMC OBJ SEV WX CHARTS ALSO INDICATING POT FOR SEV WINDS  
OVER FAR NERN MB AND FAR NRN ONT INTO SRN HSBA AHEAD OF THE PRAIRIES SYSTEM  
EARLY IN PD.  
AS MENTIONNED IN EARLY FX, CDN MDLS ARE PUSHING QPF TOO FAR N/NW OVER NWRN  
AB AND NERN BC EARLY IN PD.  
 
ON DAY 2, MDLS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGRMNT WITH THE CO LO MOVG INTO SD BY 48H BUT  
RDPS PUSHES THE SFC TROF TOO FAR N INTO NWRN ONT COMPARE TO CONSENSUS. CDN MDLS  
PUSH QPF FARTHER N THEN CONSENSUS INTO NRWRN ONT BY 48H. PREFERRED TO GO WITH  
THE CONSENSUS OF SLOWER FOREIGN MDLS ATM.  
 
 
FRONTAL SYS TRACKING THRU NRN ONT/HNSBA/NRN QC...  
PREFERRED MODEL: BLEND OF UKMET/ECMWF  
SCENARIO CONFIDENCE LEVEL: MEDIUM  
THERE ARE MORE DISCREPENCIES WITH THE CNVTV FNTL TROF MOVG ACRS ONT INTO NRN QC  
DURG PD IN VIEW OF THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THAT SYTSEM. CDN MLDS AND UKMET ARE  
MORE GENEROUS WITH THE ASSOCIATED QPF THAN NCEP MDLS BUT IN VIEW OF RCNT VERIF  
THAT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION LOCALLY. HOWEVER MDLS LIKELY TO HAVE  
DIFFICULTIES TO PINPOINT POSITION OF THE MAX AMTS WITH THAT CNVTV SYSTEM.  
CDN MDLS LIKELY ON THE SLOW SIDE THO MOVG DEVELOPING HNSBA SFC LOW ACRS NRN  
QC AND THE TORNGATS BY END OF PD. PREFERRED TO GO WITH CONSENSUS OF FOREIGN  
MDLS FOR A FASTER SYSTEM THERE. GEPS WOULD SUPPORT FARTHER S TRACK OF  
ECMWF/UKMET BY 48H AND WILL GO WITH THAT ATM.  
 
 
FRONTAL SYS TRACKING THRU ATL PROVINCES...  
PREFERRED MODEL: UKMET/ECMWF  
SCENARIO CONFIDENCE LEVEL: MEDIUM  
LOOKING AT 6H QPF VERIF VLD AT 18Z. RDPS IS ON THE SLOW SIDE WITH MAX AMTS  
OVER WRN NFLND WITH 25-35 MM FCST. REPORTS OF CYJT STEPHENVILLE SHOWING 16 MM  
PAST 6H WHILE A STATION REPORTED 20 MM FARTHER EAST OVER CENTRAL NFLND.  
CDN MDLS LIKELY TO BE ON THE SLOW SIDE OVER SERN NFLND AS WELL BEING TOO STRONG  
WITH THE SFC RIDGE INTO SERN NFLND EARLY IN PD AND A BIT DEEPER WITH THE UPR  
TROF MOVG EAST OF NFLND BY 24H. IN VIEW OF RCNT VERIF LCL SIG AMTS ARE POSSIBLE  
LCLY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 30-40 MM OVER PARTS OF THE ISLAND.  
 
 
TROPICAL STORM JOSE...  
PREFERRED MODEL: CHC OFFICIAL TRACK  
SCENARIO CONFIDENCE LEVEL: MEDIUM-HIGH  
CDN MDLS ESPECIALLY RDPS ARE ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF SOLTNS WITH TS JOSE AND NOT  
PUSHING THE SFC TROF FAR ENUF NORTH TOWARD NS. RDPS LOOKS ALSO ON THE STRONG  
SIDE WITH THE SFC RDG DEVELOPING OVER THE MRTMS ON DAY 2.  
CDN MDLS NOT FAR ENUF NORTH WITH BAND OF CLDS AND QPF ACRS ERN NS EARLY IN PD  
WHILE SHOWING TOO MUCH QPF OVER SWRN NS.  
GDPS AND UKMET ARE A BIT FARTHER NORTH PUSHING QPF INTO SWRN NS BY 24H AND  
THAT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BUT UKMET DOES NOT SUPPORT FARTHER GDPS PUSHING  
QPF INTO SWRN NS BY 48H AND WOULD GO WITH A DRIER FCST ATM.  
 
 
SHORT WAVE TRACKING OVR YK ON D2...  
PREFERRED MODEL: GFS  
SCENARIO CONFIDENCE LEVEL: MEDIUM  
RDPS IS TOO SHARP WITH THE SHRT WV TROF MOVG OVER SERN AK BY 24H AND ON THE  
DEEP SIDE WITH THAT FEATURE MOVG ACRS YK AND NORTH OF GREAT SLAVE LAKE BY  
END OF PD AND THAT IS NOT PREFERRED. GFS OFFERS A GOOD COMPROMISE HERE BTN  
DEEPER RDPS AND WEAKER SOMEWHAT WEAKER EURO MDLS WHILE GDPS THO NOT AS DEEP AS  
RDPS, IS STILL DEEPER THAN CONSENSUS. MDLS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH QPF THO CDN  
MDLS LIKELY TOO FAR WEST OVER YK BY 36H.  
 
 
UPR TROF TRACKING ACRS HI ARCTIC...  
PREFERRED MODEL: UKMET/GFS  
SCENARIO CONFIDENCE LEVEL: MEDIUM  
MDLS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGRMNT WITH THE UPR TROF MOVG ACRS HI ARCTIC FIRST  
HALF OF PD THEN CDN MDLS BECOME DEEPER AND CLOSE UP AN UPR LOW MOVG INTO HI  
ARCTIC ISLANDS BY 48H. ECMWF ALSO SHOWING AN UPR LOW BY 48H BUT WEST OF CDN  
MDLS. PREFERRED TO GO WITH WEAKER FASTER SOLTN OF UKMNET AND GFS ATM AS THAT IS  
SUPPORTED BY GEPS.  
 
 
 
END OUELLET  
 
 
 
 
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