654  
FXCN01 CWHF 231840  
 
PERIOD OF COVERAGE: 1200Z 23 MAY TO 2400Z 24 MAY.  
 
SFC COMMENTARY: STILL ABLE TO SEE THE N ATLANTIC LOW QUITE WELL IN  
IR AND VISUAL SATELLITE IMAGERY MAKING THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW  
CENTER QUITE CONFIDENT.. AND THERE WERE SEVERAL DRIFTER BUOYS IN  
VICINITY WHICH HELP NAIL THE CENTRAL PRESSURE.  
LOW IN CENTRAL QUEBEC MAY HAVE DONE A CENTER JUMP BUT FOR ALL  
INTENTS IT IS THE SAME FEATURE SO WE LEAVE IT TRUCKING AS ONE.  
LOW OFF THE EAST COAST IS SMALL AND TIGHT BUT WELL MAKRKED IN THE  
WIND OBS OFF THE COAST. THE FRONT IS FAIRL EASY TO FIND IN THE  
TEMPERATURE DATA ALONG WITH THE WIND SHIFTS.  
 
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED RDPS. THE PROGS GRADUALLY EVOLVE INTO A  
HODGEPODGE OF LOWS THAT I DONT HAVE A HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IN  
FOR POSITION OR DEPTH. I AM HAPPY WITH THE POSITION OF THE FRONTAL  
TROF WHICH WILL CARRY THE WIND SHIFTS ACROSS IT.  
 
CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MODERATE. THIS MODEL RUN HAS PUSHED THE AREA OF  
RAIN OR SHOWERS FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND WITH THE  
LACK OF RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY MY CONFID IS QUITE REDUCED. I THINK  
THE RDPS HAS BEEN DEEPENING THE SURFACE LOWS A LITTLE TO MUCH AND  
THUS THRUSTING THE PRECIP FIELD FURTHER NORTH. BUT THE AMERICAN  
MODELS HAVE BEEN DOING THE SAME AND CHANGING AS WELL.  
 
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: LOW CLOUDS AND LOW VISIBILITY SHOULD PLAGUE THE  
MARLOAS FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HRS WITH SOME POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT INLAND  
FROM THE APPROACHES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY.  
 
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION VALID: 25 MAY THRU 27 MAY.  
 
A LARGE PRECIP EVENT WITH STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE  
TO BE IN STORE FOR FRIDAY FOR THE MARLOAS. THE TIMING OF MOVEMENT OF  
THE WARM FRONT IS STILL A LITTLE OFF BETWEEN THE GFS AND GDPS FOR  
FRIDAY AND THEN WITH SPIRAL BANDS OF PRECIP AROUND THE LOW TO SLIDE  
ACROSS SOUTHERN NS LATE THAT DAY. STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DELAY  
THE CLEARING TREND ON SATURDAY BUT IT LOOKS POISED TO INFECT THE  
AREA BY THE END OF THE DAY. CONFID IS REASONABLY GOOD FOR THE LONG  
RANGE PERIOD.  
 
END/METOC-HFX  
 
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