433  
FXCN01 CWHF 161856  
 
PERIOD OF COVERAGE: 1200Z 16 AUG TO 2400Z 17 AUG.  
 
SFC COMMENTARY: AS ANALYZED.  
 
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED RDPS. RDPS GUIDANCE USED ON PROG SET MATCHED  
FAIRLY WELL WITH THAT FROM THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE FOR  
HURRICANE GERT. THE RDPS POSITIONS BEGAN TO DIVERGE A LITTLE AT 24  
HOURS AND A BIT MORE AT 36 HOURS SO SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS WERE  
MADE TO THE PROGS.  
 
CONFIDENCE: HIGH IN THAT GERT WILL REMAIN ON A NORTHEAST TRACK WELL  
TO THE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA.  
 
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: GERT SHOULD NOT IMPACT ATLANTIC CANADA EXCEPT FOR  
SOME HIGHER SWELL ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT  
INTO THURSDAY. AS WELL THE SOUTHERN GRAND BANKS WILL LIKELY SEE  
SOME GALES ON THURSDAY.  
 
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION VALID: 18 AUG THRU 20 AUG. CONTINUES TO BE  
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG RANGE WITH THE GDPS AND THE  
GFS. A WEAK RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE MARITIMES ON FRIDAY. TROUGHING  
FROM A SOUTHERN QUEBEC LOW MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH NOVA SCOTIA LATE  
SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY. SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AMOUNTS OF  
SHOWERS AND WIND STRENGTH BETWEEN THE GDPS AND THE GFS. HOWEVER  
BOTH MODELS GIVE A SHOWERY WEEKEND ONCE AGAIN.  
 
END/METOC-HFX  
 
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