826  
FXCN31 CWHX 150000  
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE  
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 8.45 PM NDT  
FRIDAY 14 OCTOBER 2016.  
 
THIS IS THE FINAL STATEMENT FROM THE CHC ON HURRICANE NICOLE  
 
1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION  
 
AT 9.30 PM NDT, HURRICANE NICOLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.8 N AND  
LONGITUDE 55.0 W, ABOUT 599 NAUTICAL MILES OR 1109 KM SOUTH OF CAPE  
RACE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 65 KNOTS (120 KM/H) AND  
CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 971 MB. NICOLE IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AT 17  
KNOTS (31 KM/H).  
 
2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH  
 
DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND  
NDT MB KTS KMH  
OCT 14 9.30 PM 36.8N 55.0W 971 65 120  
OCT 15 3.30 AM 37.5N 53.0W 970 70 130  
OCT 15 3.30 PM 38.2N 50.4W 970 70 130  
OCT 16 3.30 AM 38.6N 48.6W 969 70 130  
OCT 16 3.30 PM 39.0N 47.6W 968 65 120  
OCT 17 3.30 AM 39.7N 46.5W 967 65 120 POST-TROPICAL  
OCT 17 3.30 PM 41.3N 44.9W 967 65 120 POST-TROPICAL  
OCT 18 3.30 AM 43.3N 43.0W 967 60 111 POST-TROPICAL  
OCT 18 3.30 PM 47.8N 39.3W 967 60 111 POST-TROPICAL  
 
3. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION  
 
A. ANALYSIS  
 
NICOLE HAS BECOMING LESS ORGANISED IN RESPONSE TO THE PERSISTENT  
DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE MAIN AREA OF CLOUD IS DISPLACED  
WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTRE AND A SMALLER AREA OF DEEPER  
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED LATE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE CENTRE. HOLYROOD  
RADAR IS DETECTING AN AREA OF WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHEASTERN  
NEWFOUNDLAND BUT THIS MOISTURE IS NOT DIRECTLY RELATED TO NICOLE. THE  
CENTRE IS NOW ENCOUNTERING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 25 DEGREES.  
 
B. PROGNOSTIC  
 
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  
NICOLE WILL TO SOME EXTENT INTERACT WITH THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH, THE  
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 950 MB RESULTING IN SOME  
INTENSIFICATION OF THE WIND FIELD AROUND IT. THE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD  
MOTION AT ABOUT 17 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE. THE STORM SHOULD THEN SLOW  
DOWN DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH BYPASSES NICOLE TO THE  
NORTH ALLOWING THE STEERING FLOW TO DIMINISH. NICOLE WILL MEANDER WELL  
SOUTHEAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND ON SUNDAY. THEN ON MONDAY, INCREASING UPPER  
LEVEL WESTERLIES WILL PUSH THE STORM WELL OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE  
ECMWF IS MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH RESPECT TO THE NORTHWARD MOTION LATE IN  
THE PERIOD.  
 
NON-TRADITIONAL TRANSITION IS STILL FORECAST TILL EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
PHASE SPACE PROGNOSES INDICATE NICOLE WILL MAINTAIN A PERSISTENT WARM  
CORE DESPITE A DEGREE OF ASYMMETRY BECOMING EVIDENT. BY MID-WEEK NEXT  
WEEK, NICOLE WILL EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO EXTRATROPICAL AS IT GETS  
PUSHED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. POST-TROPICAL NICOLE WILL REMAIN A STRONG  
LOW PRESSURE CENTRE BY MID-WEEK AND WILL EVENTUALLY FILL WELL OFF TO  
THE NORTHEAST.  
 
WAVE MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT LONG-PERIOD SWELLS FROM NICOLE WILL  
AFFECT ATLANTIC CANADA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  
 
C. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)  
 
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE  
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW  
15/00Z 190 210 170 185 115 125 115 115 55 60 50 50  
15/06Z 210 225 200 200 125 130 120 120 50 60 50 50  
15/18Z 265 265 255 185 140 135 130 130 45 60 55 55  
16/06Z 295 280 275 225 150 140 140 140 40 55 55 55  
16/18Z 300 290 290 300 150 140 140 150 40 50 50 50  
17/06Z 305 300 300 300 150 140 140 150 40 45 50 45  
17/18Z 310 300 300 300 150 140 140 150 40 45 45 40  
18/06Z 315 300 300 300 150 140 140 150 0 0 0 0  
18/18Z 315 300 300 300 150 140 140 150 0 0 0 0  
 
END/COUTURIER  
 
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