884
AGNT40 KWNM 090614
MIMATN
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
110 AM EST MON 9 NOV 2009
.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH THE GLBL MODELS DURING THE
WED THRU FRI TIME FRAME AS TO REMNANTS OF IDA OR PSBL NEW
EXTRATROPICAL LOW DEVELOPMENT OFF THE EAST COAST...THUS CONTINUE
WITH A LOW CONFDC IN THE FCST IN THE DAYS 3 THRU 5 TIME FRAME.
GFS HAS BEEN FAIRLY PERSISTANT PAST FEW RUNS IN DVLPG SIG LOW
OFF CAROLINA COAST WED AND DRIFTING SYSTEM TO THE E THU AND FRI.
HOWEVER...00Z GEFS MEAN SHOWING ONLY TROFING OFF THE EAST COAST
DURING DAYS 3 THRU 5...AND SURPRESSES ANY POTENTIAL LOW
DEVELOPMENT TO THE S. LOOKING AT THE INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS...ALL ARE S OF THE LOW AND WEAKER. 00Z UKMET SHOWS
SYSTEM A BIT FURTHER N THAN ITS PREV RUN AND IS KIND OF A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE NRN GFS AND THE SRN ECMWF. WITH SUCH
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES PERSISTING IN THE MODELS...THINK THE
BEST COURSE IS TO NOT MAKE ANY SIG CHANGES TO THE PREV FCST...AS
IT WAS TRENDING TOWARDS THE SRN ECWMF/UKMET SOLUTION ANYWAY. AS
FOR WARNINGS...WILL CONTINUE WITH GALES FOR MOST OF THE NT2
WATERS WED THRU FRI AS FAIRLY STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE N
AND NW OF THE LOW. WILL ALSO LEAVE MAX WINDS TO 40 KT FOR THIS
PACAKGE...BUT AM A BIT CONCERNED WITH POTENTIAL HIGHER WINDS IN
THE NRN NT2 WATERS IF MORE OF A COUNTER FLOW WITH THE GULF
STREAM DEVELOPS. BUT WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE FCST AT THIS
POINT...AM NOT CONFDT ENUF TO BUMP WINDS TO STORM ATTM.
SEAS...WW3 LOOKS REASONABLE ACROSS THE CSTL/OFFSHR WATERS WHEN
COMPARED TO LATEST SFC OBS. WILL STAY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE THRU 60
TO 72 HOURS...THEN DIVERT FROM THE MODEL THEREAFTER AS AM MOVING
AWAY FROM THE GFS SOLUTION. WILL PROBABLY STAY CLOSE TO THE PREV
FCST FOR SEAS IN DAYS 3 THRU 5.
WARNINGS/FORECAST CONFIDENCE
WARNINGS ARE PRELIMINARY AND ARE
SUBJECT TO CHANGE. ANY CHANGES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS
12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE.
NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS
GULF OF MAINE
NONE.
GEORGES BANK
NONE.
S OF NEW ENGLAND
NONE.
NT2 MID ATLC WATERS
HUDSON TO BALT CNYN...GALE WED INTO THU
LOW CONFDC.
BALT CNYN TO HAGUE LINE...GALE WED THRU FRI
LOW CONFDC.
BALT CNYN TO HATTERAS CNYN...GALE WED THRU FRI
LOW CONFDC.
HATTERAS CNYN TO CAPE FEAR...GALE WED THRU FRI
LOW CONFDC.
CAPE FEAR TO 31N...GALE WED THRU FRI
LOW CONFDC.
.FORECASTER ACHORN. OCEAN FORECAST BRANCH.
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