978
AGNT40 KWNM 090410
MIMATN
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
938 PM EDT TUE 8 JUL 2008
.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N
DO NOT SEE ANY SIG CHANGES TO THE FCST FOR THE UPDATE. CONDS HV
CHND LTTL SINCE THIS AFTN. LGT TO MOD SRLY WINDS CONT OVR THE
WRN OFFSHR WATERS. SEAS AREA MAINLY 2 TO 3 FT...XCPT 3 TO 5 FT
OVR THE E PRTN.
FROM THE PRVS MIM...
OPC IS PROVIDING FCST SUPPORT TO NHC ON HURCN BERTHA SO THE
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS MAY BE BRIEFER THAN NORMAL.
UPDATE: 12Z RUN OF GFS/NAM MDLS LOOKS CONSISTENT WITH PREV
RUNS...AND GFS/NAM CONT TO BE IN GUD AGREEMNT EXCEPT NAM BL
WINDS ARE NOTICEABLY HIGHER IN SW FLOW AHD OF THE COLD FNT OVER
THE NT1 WTRS LATE WED. PREFER MORE CONSERVATIVE GFS BL
WINDS...SO WILL CONT TO FAVOR THE GFS SOLN. NO SIGNIF CHANGES
ARE PLANNED TO THE CURRENT FCST TREND.
WEAK TROFG WILL BE LIFTING NE ACROSS THE NT1 WTRS TODAY AND
TONITE. ANOTHER WEAK TROF WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLC CST THIS
EVNG INTO TONITE. LOW PRES WILL MOVE NE ACROSS THE ST LWRC RVR
VLY WED THRU THU. A COLD FNT ASCD WITH THE LOW WILL APRCH THE
NEW ENG AND MID ATLC COASTS WED NITE...MOVE OFSHR THU...PASS E
OF THE OFSHR AREAS ON FRI WHILE HANGING A STNRY FNT ACROSS THE
CNTRL AND SRN NT2 WTRS. THE STNRY FNT WILL PERSIST ON SAT. HI
PRES WILL MOVE E ACROSS THE NT1 AND NRN NT2 WTRS FRI AND SAT.
THE GFS HAS BEEN PLACING A LOW ALG THE COLD FNT OVER THE S OF
NEW ENG WTRS STARTING LATE THU...BUT THIS LOW IS NOT SUPPORTED
BY THE OTHER MDLS SO WILL DISREGARD IT. OVERALL...THE GFS/NAM
AND OTHER MED RNG MDL SOLNS ARE IN GUD AGREEMNT...SO WILL FAVOR
THE GFS FOR THE OFSHR WTRS FCSTS.
BUOY 41048 NR BERMUDA HAS BEEN RPTG LONGER PRD SWELL OF ABOUT 15
SEC...AND NAH VERSION OF THE WAVEWATCH III MDL IS SHOWING THAT
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SE LONG PRD SWELL ASCD WITH HURCN BERTHA
WAS APRCHG BERMUDA EARLIER THIS MRNG. WAVEWATCH III MDL SEA HTS
LOOK REASONABLE THRU THE FCST PRD...SO AM PLANNING TO FOLLOW THE
MDL GUIDANCE FAIRLY CLOSELY.
WARNINGS/FORECAST CONFIDENCE...PRELIMINARY. ANY CHANGES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:
.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS
GULF OF MAINE
NONE.
GEORGES BANK
NONE.
S OF NEW ENGLAND
NONE.
.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS
HUDSON TO BALT CNYN
NONE.
BALT CNYN TO HAGUE LINE
NONE.
BALT CNYN TO HATTERAS CNYN
NONE.
HATTERAS CNYN TO CAPE FEAR
NONE.
CAPE FEAR TO 31N
NONE.
.FORECASTER PROSISE. OCEAN FORECAST BRANCH.
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