860
AGNT40 KWNM 190034
MIMATN
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
830 PM EDT TUE 18 JUN 2013
.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.
16Z HI RES OSCAT OVERPASS RETURNED SW 20 TO 30 KT OVER SRN
PORTION BALT CNYN TO HAGUE LINE WATERS INVOF GLF STREAM. WITH
LOW PRES PASSING NE ALNG FRONT OVERNGT EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN
GRADIENT SOMEWHAT WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW CONFIDENCE GALES IN THIS
AREA OVERNGT INTO EARLY WED. HIGHEST WINDS OVERNGT ARE LIKELY TO
OCCUR LOCALLY IN TSTMS OVERNGT. WILL BE ADDING LOCALLY STRONGER
WINDS TO 35 TO 50 KT WITH NEXT NT2 ISSUANCE BASED ON LATEST
RADAR TRNDS LIGHTNING DENSITY PRODUCT AND SATELLITE DERIVED
OVERSHOOTING TOP COOLING PRODUCT. TWRDS THE END OF THE WEEK AND
THRU THE WEEKEND MDLS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT HIGH
PRES WILL DOMINANT FEATURE. SOME MDL DIFFERENCES ARISE WED NGT
INTO SAT WITH SFC LOW DVLPMNT ANLNG STNRY FRONT NEAR CAPE FEAR.
18Z GFS...AND 18Z NAM/12Z GEM GLOBAL ESPECIALLY APPEAR OVERDONE
WITH WINDS ASSOC WITH FEATURE. CONTINUE TO PREFER WEAKER 12Z
ECMWF/UKMET. SO OVERALL WILL NOT BE MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS FROM
PREVIOUS NT1/NT2 FORECASTS. 18Z MULTIGRID WAVEWATCH III HAS A
REASONABLE HANDLE ON W ATLC SIG WV HGTS THIS EVENING WHEN
COMPARED TO SHIP/BUOY OBS OVER PAST FEW HRS.
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..PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM WRN NOVA SCOTIA SW ACROSS THE SRN
GULF OF MAINE AND INLAND ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. A HIGH PRES
RIDGE EXTENDED FROM WELL NE OF BERMUDA SW TO THE SE NT2 OFFSHORE
WATERS. WINDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WERE VARIABLE 10 KT
OVER THE GULF OF MAINE AND S TO SW 10 TO 20 KT ELSEWHERE. SEAS
AT 18Z 3 TO 7 FT WITH THE HIGHEST 5 TO 7 FT E OF 69W.
SHORT TERM...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE ACROSS THE N AND
CENTRAL WATERS TNGT THROUGH WED NIGHT...THEN STALL ACROSS THE SE
WATERS THU. A SERIES OF LOW PRES CENTERS WILL MOVE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...THEN TRAVEL NE ALONG THE FRONT WED
EXITING THE AREA EARLY WED NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME
STNRY ACROSS THE SE WATERS THU AND THU NIGHT. A HIGH PRES RIDGE
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA N OF THE FRONT WED NIGHT THROUGH THU
NIGHT.
THE GFS IS STILL FASTER MOVING EACH LOW E OF THE AREA TONIGHT
AND WED. THE ECMWF/NAM AND GEM ARE GROUPED IN THE MIDDLE AND THE
UKMET IS THE SLOWEST. FOR SHORT TERM WILL FOLLOW THE NAM. THE
WINDS S OF THE LOW OVER THE WARMER WATERS S OF THE GULF STREAM
WILL INC BRIEFLY TO GALE FORCE. FOR LATEST FCST HAVE PUSHED
FORWARD THE TIME FOR GALE FORCE WINDS INTO TONIGHT CLOSE TO
ECMWF AND NAM. FOR VERIFICATION THE PATH OF SAT PASS WILL HAVE
TO BE DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA.
LONG TERM...THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN FRI AND DISSIPATED SAT. THE
HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS BACK TO THE W LATER SAT AND SUN. THE
ECMWF AND UKMET OFFER THIS SOLUTION WHILE THE NAM ON FRI AND THE
GFS AND GEM DEVELOP A LOW SE OF CAPE HATTERAS FRI AND SAT. THE
GEM IS STRONGER WITH THE LOW AND MOVE IT N SUN. THE WPC MED
RANGE FAVORS THE ECWMF SOLUTION AND THIS WILL BE THE OPC FCST AS
WELL.
SEAS...THE MULTIGRID MODEL IS VERY CLOSE TO THE CURRENT OBS.
PLAN TO STAY CLOSE TO MODEL THROUGH SUN. THE ECMWF WAM AND
MULTIGRID MODEL KEEP SEAS BELOW 5 FT FRI INTO SUN.
EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.
WARNINGS/FORECAST CONFIDENCE
PRELIMINARY. ANY CHANGES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:
NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS
GULF OF MAINE
NONE.
GEORGES BANK
NONE.
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
NONE.
NT2 MID ATLC WATERS
HUDSON CANYON TO BALTIMORE CANYON
NONE.
BALTIMORE CANYON TO HAGUE LINE...GALE OVERNGT INTO EARLY WED
LOW CONFDC.
BALTIMORE CANYON TO HATTERAS CANYON
NONE.
HATTERAS CANYON TO CAPE FEAR
NONE.
CAPE FEAR TO 31N
NONE.
.FORECASTER CLARK/OSZAJCA. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.
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