086
AGPN40 KWNM 090249
MIMPAC
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
711 PM PDT TUE 8 JUL 2008
FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.
AT 00Z OPC PUTS THE 1028 MB NEARLY STNRY HIGH PRES W OF WA/OR
WATERS WITH A RIDGE NE ACROSS N WA WTRS. THE LOW PRES OVER SRN
CA EXTENDS TROUGH THRU NRN CA AND MAINTAINS TIGHT PG OVER THE
OR/CA WATRS. LATEST QKSCT PASS SHOWED 35 KT PEAK WINDS W OF
OR/CA WATERS. SVRL SHIP OBS WITH 30 KT WINDS ALONG THE WA/OR
WATERS. MDLS STILL IN GOOD AGRMT AND ON TRACK WITH FCST AND OBS
AND SO WILL NOT MAKE MAJOR CHANGES TO CURRENT FCST. PREV MIM
FOLLOWS...
THE 12Z MODELS STILL IN AGRMT WITH ON TRACK WITH FCST AND OBS
AND SO WILL USE GFS. MDLS STILL KEEPING THE HIGH PRES AND RDG
ANCHORED OVER THE N PAC W OF WA/OR AND N CA WATERS. A THERMAL
LOW PERSISTS OVR CNTRL CA THRU SAT WITH SLOW WKNG TREND...APART
FM DIURNAL FLUCTUATIONS...THRU SAT NIGHT UNTIL IT DSIPTS OR
SHFTS E TO GREAT BASIN AS UPR RDG OVR AREA IS REPLACED BY AN UPR
TROF OFF W CST. UPR RDG IS STRONGEST THIS EVENING AND BELIEVE
THE THERMAL TROF AND STG HIGH TO NW MAY PRODUCE STRONGEST WNDS
FAR NE NRN CA OFFSHR WTRS BUT OUTSIDE OF CSTL WTRS DUE TO
PRESENCE OF CSTL TROF. WILL CONT WITH PRESENT FCST NUMBERS BUT
LOWER WNDS TO 40 KT OVERNIGHT IN AREA CNTRD ARND PT ST GEORGE.
AS AN UPR LOW PASSES N OF AREA THRU SE AK AND NRN BC TONIGHT AND
WED H5 HEIGHTS LOWER PRODUCING SOME WKNG OF RDG IN PZ5 WTRS.
THEN H5 RDG REBLDS BHND IT THU AND FRI WITH HIGH PRES BLDG INTO
PAC NW. THIS REINFORCES THE GALES AND PERHAPS SPREADS THEN S
INTO CNTRL CA WTRS... INDICATED BY NAM AND GLOBAL MDLS OTHER
THAN GFS AND ECMWF. HENCE STIL HAVE LOW TO MDT CONFDC FOR LATE
THU INTO SAT IN NE PART OF CNTRL CA WTRS. APPRS GALES ARE LKLY
TO END BY SUN AS A DEEP UPR LOW AND TROF DROPS SE TWD AREA FM
GLFLASK AND WKNS SFC RDG AND TROF. CONDS SHOULD REMAIN TRANQUIL
IN SE HALF OF CA WTRS...WHILE TO THE N CONDS ARE LIGHTER DUE TO
PRESENCE OF RDG AND DO NOT EXPECT WNDS TO EXCEED 25 KT IN WA
WTRS.
SEAS...THE 18Z OBS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WW3 EXCEPT PERHAPS
IN GALE AREA. THE SHIP REPORTING 28 FT OFF CAPE MENDOCINO AT 18Z
LOOKS TOO HIGH. ANALYZED FOR 18 FT IN THAT AREA. WIL CONT TO ADD
UP TO 3 FT TO SEAS IN AND JUST S OF GALE AREA.
WARNINGS/FORECAST CONFIDENCE...PRELIMINARY. ANY CHANGES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:
PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS
CAPE FLATTERY TO CAPE LOOKOUT
NONE.
CAPE LOOKOUT TO POINT ST GEORGE
GALE SE PART TONIGHT INTO
SAT...MDT TO HIGH CONFDC...EXCP LOW TO MDT WED NIGHT INTO SAT.
PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS
PT ST GEORGE TO PT ARENA
GALE THRU SAT. CONFDC HIGH.
PT ARENA TO PT CONCEPTION
GALE LATE THU AND FRI OVR NE PART
AND CONTG INTO SAT WITH LOW TO MDT CONFDC.
PT CONCEPTION TO GUADALUPE ISLAND
NONE.
.FORECASTER MUSONDA/OSZAJCA. OCEAN FORECAST BRANCH.
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