451
AGPN40 KWNM 080230
MIMPAC
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
630 PM PST SAT 7 NOV 2009
.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.
WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE PZ5 WATERS
TONIGHT...THEN BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY SUN. STILL EXPECT
GALES ACROSS THE WASHINGTON AND OREGON WATERS SUN NIGHT INTO MON
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE NAM IS SHOWING A
STRONGER SYSTEM THAN THE GFS...BUT ATTM WILL LEAN MORE TOWARDS
THE GFS SOLUTION.
FARTHER S...HIGH PRES W OF THE PZ6 WATERS IS COMBINING WITH A
THERMAL TROF ALONG THE SRN CALIFORNIA COAST TO PRODUCE WINDS UP
TO 30 KT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SRN CALIFORNIA
OFFSHORE WATERS. CONDITIONS WILL WEAKEN BY MON...THEN STRENGTHEN
AGAIN BY WED AND THU AS A COLD FRONT DROPS S INTO THE SRN
CALIFORNIA WATERS. MINIMAL GALES ARE POSSIBLE BY THU...BUT ATTM
WILL HOLD THE WINDS AT 30 KT.
THE WAVEWATCH MODEL LOOKS REASONABLE AND WILL BE FOLLOWED FAIRLY
CLOSELY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. LARGE SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE WATERS TONIGHT AND SUN.
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PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
THE PATTERN ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS WILL REMAIN VERY
PROGRESSIVE OVR PZ5 WATERS WHILE FRONTS PRESS S INTO CA WATERS
AND WEAKEN. LATEST SCAT PASS INDICATES 20-30 KT WINDS ACROSS PZ5
WATERS. RECENT OBS OVR MIM AREA TEND TO BE SEVERAL FT GREATER
THAN WW3 FCST...THEREFOR IN NEXT PKG WILL MAKE NEEDED ADJUSTEMT
TO WW3. 12Z GFS IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PRV RUN WITH
ONLY MINOR CHANGES. EXPECT NEXT CHANCE FOR GALES ON SUN NIGHT
INADV OF FRONTAL BNDRY. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE ALSO IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT...ALTHOUGH ECMWF IS FURTHER SW WITH LOW CENTER SUN
NIGHT ALONG THE FRONTAL BNDRY. FURTHER S...THE LARGEST INFLUENCE
ON THE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE THE STRENGTH OF THE GRADIENT
ALONG THE CA CST. ATTM I EXPECT TO KEEP MAX WINDS TO 30 KT ALONG
SRN CA. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
CA WATES AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL RESULT.
WARNINGS/FORECAST CONFIDENCE
WARNINGS ARE PRELIMINARY AND ARE
SUBJECT TO CHANGE. ANY CHANGES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS
12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE.
PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS
CAPE FLATTERY TO CAPE LOOKOUT...GALE SUN NIGHT AND MON
MDT
CONFDC. GALE WED...LOW CNFDC.
CAPE LOOKOUT TO POINT ST GEORGE...GALE SUN NIGHT AND MON
MDT
CONFDC. GALE WED...LOW CNFDC.
PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS
PT ST GEORGE TO PT ARENA
NONE.
PT ARENA TO PT CONCEPTION
NONE.
PT CONCEPTION TO GUADALUPE ISLAND
NONE.
.FORECASTER NOLT/SHAW. OCEAN FORECAST BRANCH.
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