341  
AGPN40 KWNM 200259  
MIMPAC  
 
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN  
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC  
659 PM PST MON FEB 19 2018  
   
FORECAST DISCUSSION
 
MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT  
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.  
 
AT THIS TIME I DON'T PLAN ON MAKING CHANGES TO THE CURRENT GRIDS  
OR ASSOICATED TEXT FORECAST. THE LATEST ASCAT PASS FROM 19Z  
INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF 20-30 KT WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE  
REGION, WITH A SMALL ARE OF GALES IN THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA  
WATERS.  
 
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PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...  
 
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST OF THE REGION AND A LOW PRESSURE  
TROUGH TO THE EAST HAVE MAINTAINED A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER  
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS WHERE MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE GALE  
FORCE RANGE HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. INLAND TROUGH IS NOW WEAKENING  
THAT WILL GIVE WAY TO A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS WILL  
DIMINISH TO BELOW GALE FORCE THRESHOLD IN THE SHORT TERM. HIGH  
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE WEST OF THE SOUTHERN WATERS  
WITHE A WEAK COASTAL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. GOES16 GEOCOLOR IMAGES  
SHOW CLUSTERS OF MOSTLY LOW CLOUDS MOVING NORTHWEST ACROSS THE  
REGION WITH CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER WASHINGTON. AT 18Z, THE  
NCEP WEATHER MAP HAS HIGH PRESSURE 1040 MB NEAR 40N140W THAT  
EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN WATERS. TIGHT  
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE NORTHERN AND  
CENTRAL WATERS.  
 
MODELS HAVE INITIALIZED WELL THE 18Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND  
THEY ALL AGREE WELL IN THE SHORT TERN ON KEEPING HIGH PRESSURE TO  
THE WEST OF THE REGION AS IT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH. MODELS ARE ALSO  
IN AGREEMENT ON WEAKENING THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH TO THE EAST.  
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE STRENGTH OF  
THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST OF THE REGION BUT THEY AGREE ON  
THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND SO WILL STAY WITH GFS.  
   
SEAS
 
THEY PEAK AT 27 FT OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS AND WAVE  
MODELS NWW3 AND ECMWFWAVE FIT WELL THE OBSERVED SEAS PATTERN. IN  
THE SHORT TERM THE PEAK SEAS WILL DRIFT SOUTH WHILE SUBSIDING.  
WILL STAY WITH NWW3 FOR SEAS.  
   
EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE
 
N/A.  
 
   
WARNINGS
 
PRELIMINARY.  
   
PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS
 
   
PZZ900...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO CAPE SHOALWATER
 
 
GALE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT.  
GALE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT.   
PZZ905...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO CAPE LOOKOUT
 
 
GALE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT.   
PZZ810...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE LOOKOUT TO FLORENCE OR
 
 
GALE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  
   
PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS
 
   
PZZ820...INNER WATERS FROM POINT ST. GEORGE TO POINT ARENA
 
 
GALE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.   
PZZ825...INNER WATERS FROM POINT ARENA TO PIGEON POINT
 
 
GALE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.   
PZZ830...INNER WATERS FROM PIGEON POINT TO POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS
 
 
GALE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
 
.FORECASTER SHAW/MUSONDA. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.  
 
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