525  
AGPN40 KWNM 221522  
MIMPAC  
 
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN  
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC  
722 AM PST WED NOV 22 2017  
   
FORECAST DISCUSSION
 
MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT  
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.  
 
SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ANALYZED OVER THE E PACIFIC THIS  
MORNING, WITH THE FIRST DISSIPATING FRONT ALONG THE INNER WATERS  
ADJACENT TO THE PACIFIC NW COAST, AND THE SECOND AND MORE  
VIGOROUS BOUNDARY JUST WEST OF THE OUTER ZONES. AS THIS PARENT  
LOW (NEAR 44N138W 992 HPA) MOVES QUICKLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE  
OFFSHORES THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT  
ACROSS ZONE 900.  
 
UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST BY SATURDAY, AS UPPER TROUGH  
DIGS SOUTHEAST FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. DIGGING SHORTWAVE CARVES  
OUT A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE E PACIFIC LATE SATURDAY  
THROUGH MONDAY, WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE BASE OF  
THE TROUGH AND IMPACTING THE OFFSHORE ZONES. MODEL AGREEMENT  
SATURDAY AND BEYOND IS RATHER POOR, BUT NOT TOO UNUSUAL DURING A  
TRANSITION SEASON. COMBING THROUGH SEVERAL PREVIOUS CYCLES OF  
MODEL GUIDANCE, AND HAVING THE BENEFIT OF SEEING THE 00Z EPS  
MEAN AND 06Z GEFS MEAN, FORECAST PREFERENCE LIES WITH THE 00Z  
ECMWF FOR THE UPCOMING FORECAST PACKAGE. WILL BE MAKING SEVERAL  
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE ACTUAL WIND GRIDS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE, NAMELY  
TO MINIMIZE GALES LATE SUN NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS  
AS A LOW PRESSURE CLIPS THE AREA. WITH LITTLE MODEL AGREEMENT  
THAT FAR OUT, DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO CARRY THE 40 KNOTS  
THAT THE MODEL SUGGESTS. WOULD RATHER WAIT FOR FUTURE CYCLES  
UNTIL A MORE DEFINITIVE SOLUTION CAN BE REACHED WITH CERTAINTY.  
 
SEAS: 00Z ECMWF WAM COMPARES FAVORABLY TO THE CURRENT  
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT OBSERVATIONS, AND SINCE USING THE ECMWF  
AS THE BASIS FOR THE WINDS, SEE NO REASON TO STRAY FAR FROM THE  
WAM THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL BE MAKING DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS  
SUNDAY REFLECTING THE DEFERENCE TOWARDS WEAKER SURFACE WINDS WITH  
INCREASED UNCERTAINTY.  
   
EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE
 
NOTHING SIGNIFICANT TO NOTE  
THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  
 
   
WARNINGS
 
PRELIMINARY.  
   
PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS
 
   
PZZ800...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO CAPE SHOALWATER
 
 
GALE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.    
PZZ900...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO CAPE SHOALWATER
 
 
GALE TODAY.  
GALE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT.  
GALE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.   
PZZ805...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO CAPE LOOKOUT
 
 
GALE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT.   
PZZ905...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO CAPE LOOKOUT
 
 
GALE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.  
GALE POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.    
PZZ810...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE LOOKOUT TO FLORENCE OR
 
 
GALE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT.   
PZZ910...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE LOOKOUT TO FLORENCE OR
 
 
GALE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.  
GALE POSSIBLE SUNDAY.   
PZZ815...INNER WATERS FROM FLORENCE OR TO POINT ST. GEORGE
 
 
GALE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT.   
PZZ915...OUTER WATERS FROM FLORENCE OR TO POINT ST. GEORGE
 
 
GALE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.  
GALE POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.  
   
PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS
 
   
PZZ920...OUTER WATERS FROM POINT ST. GEORGE TO POINT ARENA
 
 
GALE POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
 
.FORECASTER COLLINS. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.  
 
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