708  
AWUS01 KWNH 250527  
FFGMPD  
OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-251100-  
 
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0823  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
126 AM EDT MON SEP 25 2017  
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST KS...SOUTHEAST CO...W OK  
PANHANDLE...NORTHEAST NM  
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE  
 
VALID 250525Z - 251100Z  
 
SUMMARY...POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING THREAT MAY EVOLVE DUE TO  
TRAINING WITH 2-3" TOTALS POSSIBLE OVER AREAS WITH SATURATED SOILS  
AND LOWER FFG VALUES.  
 
DISCUSSION...GOES-16 6.9UM AND REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICT A  
SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS NW KS AT THIS TIME WITH A  
DRAPED TROF ANGLING BACK TOWARD SE CO GENERALLY COINCIDENT WITH  
SURFACE FRONT. CIRA LPW LOOPS AND 00Z DDC/AMA RAOBS DENOTE THE  
MAIN DEEP MOISTURE AXIS IS DISPLACED WELL EAST AS MID TO UPPER  
LEVEL AIR ABOVE 7H IS QUITE DRY. EVEN THOUGH DEEP MOISTURE IS  
COMPROMISED...SFC ANALYSIS DENOTES BROAD AREA OF SOUTH-SOUTHEAST  
AND SOUTHEASTERLY 15-20KTS OF MID TO UPPER 60 TDS ARE CONVERGING  
NEARLY ORTHOGONAL TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS WHILE 850MB 30KT  
SOUTHERLY LLJ WILL ALSO MAINTAIN STRONG ASCENT/MOISTURE AND  
INSTABILITY ADVECTION INCREASING SOME RAINFALL EFFICIENCY. THIS  
ALLOWS FOR TPW OF UP TO 1.25"...AND LIKELY TO SUPPORT RATES TO  
THAT LEVEL GIVEN AVAILABLE INSTABILITY (1000-2000 J/KG MUCAPES  
FROM NM/TX BORDER TO SW KS) FOR SUSTAINING UPDRAFTS.  
 
UPSTREAM WV DEPICTS A STRETCHED OUT POSITIVE TILT SHORTWAVE  
CROSSING S CO/N NM...HELPING WITH UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING  
AND SLIGHTLY INCREASED DIFFLUENCE.  
STRONGER MID-LEVEL INFLOW (7-5H) BACKBUILDING ALONG THE FRONTAL  
BOUNDARY CAN BE EXPECTED PERHAPS AS FAR SE AS NE NM.  
10.3UM CLEAR IR AND DDC/PUB RADARS SHOW THIS SOUTHEAST BUILDING  
WITH GENERAL COOLING TOPS TOWARD APPROACHING CLUSTER OVER W  
HARDING COUNTY NM. WITH BACKBUILDING AND MEAN FLOW GENERALLY  
PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THERE IS AN AXIS FOR TRAINING AND  
THE POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2-3" THROUGH 12Z...IN LINE  
WITH RECENT HRRR/ESRL HRRRV3 AND 00Z ARW. THIS MAY LEAD TO LOW  
END FLASH FLOOD RISK MAINLY GIVEN THE LOW FFG VALUES IN THE  
VICINITY AS WELL AS SOME LOCATIONS THROUGH WEST CENTRAL KS ALREADY  
RECEIVING 1-2" THROUGH EARLIER CONVECTIVE ROUNDS.  
 
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THIS EVOLUTION IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH  
EVEN WITH SUPPORT OF RELIABLE GUIDANCE. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO THE  
FACT OF THE VERY DRY AIR ALOFT AND THE POSSIBILITY OF COLD POOL  
GENERATION. RAPID COLD POOL GENERATION WILL LEAD TO OUTFLOW  
BOUNDARIES THAT WILL DISRUPT TRAINING AXIS/CORRIDOR AS CELLS  
PROPAGATE EAST OR SOUTHEAST LIMITING THE TOTALS AND OBVIOUSLY  
FLOODING RISK.  
 
GALLINA  
   
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
 
 
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...DDC...GLD...PUB...  
 
ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...  
 
LAT...LON 39500125 39340023 38309989 37400071 36680278  
36920378 38560205  
 
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