425
FOUS30 KWBC 050157
QPFERD
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
956 PM EDT SAT JUL 04 2009
..VALID 03Z SUN JUL 05 2009 - 00Z MON JUL 06 2009
..REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE AREAS OF CONCERN FROM THE PREVIOUS
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL DISCUSSION. THE 1200 UTC ECMWF AND
THE 1800 UTC NAM/GFS RUNS ALL TRENDED WETTER FARTHER TO THE WEST
OVR THE SRN PLAINS ALONG THE SLOWLY SWD MOVG CDFNT. EVENING UPR
AIR ANALYSIS SHOWING VERY HIGH PWS ALONG THIS BNDRY..WITH READINGS
OF 2-2.25" IN THIS HIGH MOISTURE AXIS. CONVECTION WL REMAIN
ACTIVE IN THIS HIGH MOISTURE AXIS TONIGHT...WITH MODELS SHOWING
PERSISTENT INFLOW INTO THE BNDRY. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW
INCREASINGLY WSWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO THE BNDRY BY 1200 UTC.
THIS WL SUPPORT INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF CELLS IN A W-E
DIRECTION ACRS SERN OK INTO NERN TX AND CNTRL TO SRN AR. IN AREAS
OF TRAINING..ISOLATED 2"+ PCPN AMTS IN A SHRT TIME POSSIBLE.
ORAVEC
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
..OK/ARK INTO LWR OH/TN VLY
MCS OUTFLOW FM LAST NGT CONTS TO DRIVE CNVCTN INTO THIS AFTN WHILE
THE SYNOPTIC BNDRY REMAINS RATHER INACTV SO FAR. MID/UPR FLOW
REGIME WL REMAIN WRLY AND BCM SLGTLY WNW THRU THE PD WITH A BROAD
AREA OF ENTRNC REGION UPR JET DYNAMICS AND DIFL UPR FLOW. SVRLS
WEAK SHRTWVS ARE XPCTD TO GRAZE THE REGION AND PROVIDE PDS OF STGR
LIFT...WHILE GUID IS SHOWG SOME MIDLVL ENERGY LIFTG ENEWD FM THE
SRN ROCKIES ON SUN. LATEST GUID IS SHOWG A MOD LLJ DVLPG ACRS THE
REGION TNGT THAT WL REMAIN NRLY PARALLEL TO THE MID/UPR FLOW AND
SUPPORT MOD MSTR FLUX...THERMAL FORCG AND CVRG...WHILE ALSO
SUPPORTG SOME TRAING ACRS THE REGION. PWS ARE FCST TO REMAIN AOA
TWO INCHES THRU MUCH OF THE PD THAT WL FUEL POCKETS OF HVY RNFL.
THESE VALUES REMAIN 1-2 STDS ABV NRML. FFG VALUES ARE GNRLY AOA
TWO INCHES PER HR FM THE SRN PLNS INTO LWR OH VLY...SO AT THIS
TIME...XPCT ONLY ISOLD RUNOFF ISSUES.
..XTRM SERN AZ/SRN NM/XTRM WRN TX
LATEST GUID CONTS TO SHOW A TONGUE OF DEEP MSTR ACRS THE REGION.
PWS ARE GNRLY ARND 1.50 INCHES...WHICH ARE 2-3 STDS ABV NRML AND
ARND 200 PERCENT OF NRML. MID/UPR FLOW WL DIRECT MIDLVL ENERGY
ACRS THE REGION THRU THE PD THAT WL PROVIDE PDS OF STGR LIFT. URP
FLOW SHLD REMAIN DIFL. LATEST VSBL SATL PICS SHOW PLENTY OF HEATG
THIS AFTN/EVE WL ALLOW FOR CNVCTN DVLPG ALNG THE HIER TERRAIN WITH
THE ACTVTY LKLY TO DRIFT TWD THE ENE THRU THE PD. ADDTNL CNVCTN IS
PSBL ON SUN OVR THE SAME GNRL AREAS...BUT THE THREAT SHLD BE MORE
INTO FAR WRN TX. RNFL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HR THAT WL CAUSE
SOME RUNOFF ISSUES...ESPCLY OVR STEEP TERRAIN.
ECKERT
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