345
FOUS30 KWBC 240703
QPFERD
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
302 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2008
..VALID 06Z THU JUL 24 2008 - 12Z FRI JUL 25 2008
..REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 SE COT 25 S NGP 20 NE PIL 25 SE MMMA 55 SW MMMA 40 SE MMMY
50 WNW MMAN 20 WNW MMMV 105 NW MMMV 100 SSW 6R6 55 S 6R6
15 N MMPG 25 WNW COT 20 SE COT.
SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 SW FVE 20 E MLT 25 S RKD 10 SSE EWB 65 SSE FOK 30 ENE 9W7
10 E EDE 10 NW ECG 10 S WRI 15 SSE ALB 20 NNE GFL 35 NW RUT
10 NNE CMGB 15 SW CWNH 20 WNW CERM 15 SW FVE.
SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 N DMO 10 WSW STJ 15 NE BIE 20 ENE JYR OLU 15 NNE FET
15 W CSQ 30 NNW IRK 10 NE IRK 45 NNE COU 15 ENE COU 20 W JEF
20 N DMO.
MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE
FROM
25 SE CMSR 45 SE CWST 45 NW MLT 30 WNW WVL SFZ 25 S HTO
40 E MJX 15 NNE BLM 30 NNW OXC MVL 20 NNW CWQH 25 SE CWLU
25 SE CMSR.
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF FIVE INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE TO THE
RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N MMAN 40 N MMMV 80 SW MMPG 40 SW MMPG
25 SSE MMPG 20 NNE LRD 15 ENE HBV 25 NE EBG T65 15 WSW MMRX
50 W MMRX 45 ENE MMMY 60 N MMAN.
NORTHEASTERN U.S...
WIDESPREAD HVY RAINFALL LIKELY DAY 1 TO THE EAST OF THE
UNSEASONABLY STRONG AND SLOW MOVG TROF OVR THE NORTHEAST. OVERALL
THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGRMNT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROF
AND THE CORRESPONDING PCPN AXES AHEAD OF IT. WITH THE EXPECTED
SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE TROF AND ASSOC FRONT...ABOVE NORMAL PWS ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES AND VERY FAVORABLE LOW TO MID LEVEL
DYNAMICS...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT HEAVY TO LOCALLY
EXCESSIVE PCPN AMTS AREA POSSIBLE. THERE WL BE POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING OF CELLS IN A S TO N DIRECTION FROM THE COASTAL NRN MID
ATL INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS PERIOD. PCPN AMTS OF 1-2" IN AN HR OR
TWO HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM..WITH AMTS OF THIS
MAGNITUDE LIKELY THRU THE REMAINDER OF THIS PERIOD....WITH TOTALS
OF 3-5"+ FOR THE PERIOD IN AREAS OF TRAINING AND/OR OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT. WE FAVORED THE MORE WIDESPREAD DEPICTION OF HEAVY
PCPN IN THE GFS GIVEN THE OVERALL FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR HEAVY TO
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMTS.
LOWER RIO GRANDE INTO NERN MEXICO..
NO BIG CHANGES TO THINKING FROM PREV DISCUSSION WITH PCPN ASSOC
WITH DOLLY. WHILE DOLLY WL WEAKEN DAY 1 AS IT PUSHES WNWWD ACRS
FAR S TX AND INTO NERN MEXICO...HEAVY RAINS SHOULD CONT INVOF THE
CIRCULATION CNTR AS IT MOVES ACRS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE REGION.
THE HEAVIEST RAINS HAVE REMAINED FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE CNTR OF
CIRCULATION OF DOLLY WITH MODELS SHOWING THIS TREND CONT DAY
1..WITH POTENTIAL FOR AN AXIS OF 4-6"+ RAINFALL AMTS TO SPREAD
ALONG THE LOWER RIO GRANDE AND INTO NERN MEXICO.
ERN PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY...
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ACTIVE ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE WLY
FROM PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS ESEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY.
THE EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY INVOF SERN SD/NERN NE AND IA SHOULD
CONT TO SINK SEWD THU MORNING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE NW TO SE
ORIENTED FRONTAL BNDRY ACRS THIS AREA. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
LIKELY TO FORM THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI TO THE NORTH OF THIS FRONT
AS ADDITIONAL HT FALLS MOVE ESEWD ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE WLYS.
THE BIGGEST DIFFS IN THE MODELS WITH THIS SCENARIO IS THE TRACK OF
ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THE GFS IS SHOWING A MORE SEWD TRACK
THAN THE NAM...EC OR SREF MEAN. THE GFS SOLN DOES HAVE SUPPORT
FROM A FEW OF THE NAM/RSM SREF MEMBERS...ALTHOUGH OTHER SREF
MEMBERS SUPPORT THE FARTHER NWD SOLN ALSO. WE ARE FAVORING THE
FARTHER SWD AXIS OF THE GFS GIVEN THE PROPENSITY FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION TO PRESS FARTHER TO THE SE. WITH HIGH PWS PERSISTING
ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS FRONTAL BNDRY AND THE FAVORABLE MID TO UPR
LEVEL PATTERN FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION...ISOLATED RUNOFF PROBLEMS
MAY OCCUR FROM THE COMBINATION OF HEAVY RAINS FROM THIS MORNING
ACTIVITY AND A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION THU NIGHT EARLY FRI
MORNING.
ORAVEC
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