273
FOUS30 KWBC 081837
QPFERD
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
136 PM EST SUN NOV 08 2009
..VALID 18Z SUN NOV 08 2009 - 00Z TUE NOV 10 2009
..REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
..CNTL GULF COAST
VERY COMPLEX RAINFALL PATRN TO DVLP ACRS THIS REGION OVER THE NEXT
36 HRS WITH 3 SEPARATE SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE REGION..ONE S/WV
MOVING EWD FROM WRN TX/NE MEX...ANOTHER SYSTEM IN DEEP TROPICAL
AIRMASS OVER THE WRN GULF..AND THE THIRD HURRICANE IDA MOVING OUT
OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TOWARD THE CNTL GULF COAST. THERE DOES
SEEM TO BE GENERAL CONSENSUS ON BRINING SLUG OF VERY DEEP TROPICAL
MSTR NWD TOWARD THE UPR TX/SRN LA COAST OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
APCHG TX S/WV TROF...BUT DETAILS OF WHETHER A SEPARATE LOW WILL
DVLP OVER THE NW GULF AS DEEP AS THE 12Z GFS INDICATES ARE
SOMEWHAT SKETCHY AT THIS POINT. THUS HAVE NOT GONE QUITE AS HEAVY
AS THE GFS THU PARTS OF SW LA AT THIS POINT...BUT GIVEN THE
INCREASING LRG SCALE LIFT AND PWS INCREASING TO OVER 2
INCHES..STILL EXPECT A RATHER LARGE AREA OF MDT TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS TO DVLP. MEANWHILE TRACK OF HURCN IDA WILL BEGIN TO BRING
INCREASINGLY HEAVY RAINS FARTHER E ACRS THE CNTL GULF COAST ON
MON. WHILE 3 HR FF GUIDANCE VALUES ARE GENLY ABOVE 4 INCHES ACRS
THIS REGION..24 HR STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES CAN BE
EXPECTED ACRS SRN LA EWD INTO SRN MS WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME
ISOLD RUNOFF PROBLEMS IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.
SULLIVAN
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