483  
FXCA20 KWBC 171036  
PMDCA  
 
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
635 AM EDT FRI AUG 17 2018  
 
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM AUG 17/06  
UTC: TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE FORECAST TO PLAY A ROLE IN THE  
VARIABILITY OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ONE EXTENDS  
63W...APPROACHING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS WHILE DEEP CONVECTION  
TRAILS...FOCUSING ON THE FRENCH ANTILLES EARLY ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER  
WAVE EXTENDS NEAR 52W AND EXTENDS AN AXIS TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO  
GUYANA. AT UPPER LEVELS...A ROBUST UPPER HIGH IS STRENGTHENING  
WHILE CENTERING AT 22N 57W. TO THE WEST...A TUTT LOW IS MEANDERING  
NORTHWARD WHILE CENTERING OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS.  
 
AS THE MID-UPPER RIDGE MOVES WEST INTO THE BASIN...IT WILL LIMIT  
THE NORTHWARD AMPLIFICATION OF THE WAVES ARRIVING IN THE  
TRADES...LIMITING THE BULK OF THE ASSOCIATED TRAILING MOIST PLUMES  
TO THE CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.  
YET...AN ENHANCEMENT IN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED BOTH ON FRIDAY AND  
THEN ON MONDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVES. THE  
MOIST PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST WAVE WILL ARRIVE DURING  
FRIDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING...EARLY ENOUGH TO AID WITH THUNDERSTORMS  
DEVELOPMENT AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO. EXPECTING  
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES.  
 
THE SECOND WAVE ARRIVES LATE ON SUNDAY EVENING...WHICH WILL  
SUSTAIN A LESS IMPORTANT PEAK IN PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY. DURING  
THIS PERIOD...EXPECTING ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY UNDER 1 INCH/DAY.  
 
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)  
 

 
 
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