257
FXCA20 KWBC 081801
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
201 PM EDT TUE JUL 08 2008
AT 15 UTC...HURRICANE BERTHA CENTERED NEAR 22.1N 53.8W... WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 90KT. THE HURRICANE IS MOVING NW AT 9
KT. SEE TPC/NHC BULLETIN FOR DETAILS.
DISCUSSION FROM JUL 08/0000 UTC... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS TO
THE NORTHEAST FROM A HIGH CENTERED OVER SONORA/CHIHUAHUA IN
NORTHWEST MEXICO TO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN USA. AT 250 HPA THE
CLOSED HIGH IS FORECAST TO MEANDER ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
AND BUILD EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN USA. BY 72 HRS THE RIDGE WILL
BE ORIENTED EAST TO WEST FROM NORTHWEST MEXICO ACROSS TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN USA. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS VENTING DIURNAL/MONSOONAL
CONVECTION ACROSS MEXICO... WITH MOST INTENSE CONCENTRATING ON THE
SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL AND BETWEEN THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL AND
THE COASTAL PLAINS. ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL WE EXPECT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM/DAY... TO
AFFECT FROM SONORA TO DURANGO. ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL...
BETWEEN COAHUILA/NUEVO LEON AND VERACRUZ/TAMPICO... EXPECT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-25MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 75-125MM/DAY ON DAY
1 DIMINISHING TO MAXIMA OF 30-60MM ON DAY 2 AND 15-20MM ON DAY 3.
A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OFF THE EASTERN USA COAST ON DAY 1
WILL MOVE EAST THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE ASSOCIATED
TROUGH WILL EXTEND SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY 24 HRS AND
LINGER THROUGH 72/84 HRS. A TUTT LOW INITIALLY CENTERED NEAR 17N
79W WILL MOVE TO THE WEST REACHING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY 36 HRS
THEN WEAKEN AND MEANDER AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO/CAMPECHE SOUND THROUGH 72/84 HRS. THIS FEATURE WILL ENHANCE
CONVECTIONS ACROSS COSTA RICA-SOUTHERN NICARAGUA WHERE WE EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 50-100MM ON DAY 2 WITH LESSER AMOUNTS DAYS 1 AND 3.
CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT IS ALSO EXPECTED OVER EL SALVADOR-SOUTHERN
HONDURAS-SOUTHERN GUATEMALA-SOUTHERN CHIAPAS MEXICO BY 36-60
HRS... WHEN THE UPPER TROUGH IS TO INTERACT WITH THE ITCZ TO
SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 20-25MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 50-100MM.
AT 500 HPA...AN ANTICYCLONE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS... CENTERED NEAR
33N 66W AT 24 HRS ENVELOPS THE AREA NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES.
THROUGH 24-36 HRS THE RIDGE BECOMES NARROW AND ELONGATED EAST TO
WEST AS SHORT WAVE PERTURBATIONS EJECTING ACROSS THE EASTERN USA
THEN LIFTING OVER THIS RIDGE WILL ERODE THIS AXIS FROM THE NORTH.
BY 60-72 HRS THE ANTICYCLONE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO WITH A RIDGE AXIS EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. A SECOND CELL OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LIES
FARTHER EAST... WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING WEST FROM AFRICA ALONG 20N
EAST OF 50W. THIS RIDGE PERSIST OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC.
HURRICANE BERTHA LIES BETWEEN THESE RIDGES.
A LOW/MID LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH INDUCED BY HURRICANE BERTHA OVER
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE WEST INTO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
BY 36-48 HRS. THIS FAVORS AN AREA OF SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER
PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA WITH ACCUMULATION OF 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. THE CONVECTION WILL SPREAD TO JAMAICA BY 36-60
HRS WITH 05-10MM PER DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 15MM.
A POORLY ORGANIZED TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED ALONG 42W/43W AND
SOUTH OF 12N. GFS FORECAST THIS WAVE MOVING TO 44W BY 24 HRS...
47W/48W BY 36 HRS... 50W/51W BY 48 HRS... 54W/55W BY 60 HRS...
59W/60W BY 72 HRS... AND 62W/63W BY 84 HRS. CONVECTION WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD WEST INTO NORTHERN GUYANA AND NORTHEAST VENEZUELA
BY 48-60 HRS... WITH ACCUMULATION OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
35-70MM.
A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 83W AND SOUTH OF 17N IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ALONG 84W/85W BY 24 HRS... 88W/89W BY 36 HRS... 91W/92W BY 48
HRS... 93W/94W BY 60 HRS... 95W/96W BY 72 HRS...AND 100W/101W BY
84 HRS. THIS WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TUTT OVER
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN... AND AS IT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL
AMERICA/WESTERN CARIBBEAN IT WILL FAVOR ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION.
OVER NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS/NICARAGUA WE EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM... WHILE OVER SOUTHERN
NICARAGUA-COSTA RICA MAXIMA WILL PEAK AT 50-100MM. OVER QUINTANA
ROO IN THE YUCATAN AND BELIZE IT WILL FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM PEAKING AT 50-100MM MAXIMA DAY
2. FROM WESTERN GUATEMALA TO SOUTHERN MEXICO... EXPECT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 20-40MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 50-100MM.
BALCAZAR...SEMAR-CAPMAR (MEXICO)
BROWN...NMC (JAMAICA)
DANAHER...NCEP (USA)
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