001  
FXHW01 KWNH 281156  
PMDHI  
 
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
755 AM EDT SUN MAY 28 2017  
 
VALID 00Z MON MAY 29 2017 - 00Z MON JUN 05 2017  
 
LATEST GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY AGREEABLE AND CONSISTENT FOR THE  
UPCOMING WEEK'S SURFACE FORECAST. INITIALLY WEAK NATURE OF THE  
EAST-WEST RIDGE ALONG 30N LATITUDE WILL LEAD TO LIGHT TRADE FLOW  
THROUGH MONDAY AND A GREATER THAN AVERAGE LAND/SEA BREEZE FOCUS  
FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY. SUBSEQUENT STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE WILL  
BRING TRADES BACK TO MODERATE-BRISK LEVELS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH  
THE REST OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT  
NORTHEASTWARD LATE IN THE WEEK BUT MODELS/ENSEMBLES AGREE THAT IT  
MAY TAKE UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND FOR TRADES TO WEAKEN A LITTLE. WITH  
THE STRONGER TRADE FLOW EXPECT A RETURN TO GENERALLY WINDWARD  
FOCUSED RAINFALL, BUT WITH AMOUNTS TENDING TO BE IN THE LIGHTER  
HALF OF THE SPECTRUM AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN WITHIN A  
STANDARD DEVIATION EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL. A SHORTWAVE ALOFT  
CURRENTLY CROSSING THE ISLANDS MAY PROMOTE ISOLATED RAINFALL  
ENHANCEMENT EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY  
GUIDANCE IS MORE AGREEABLE REGARDING HOW QUICKLY THE FEATURE  
DEPARTS TO THE EAST, CLUSTERING MORE CLOSELY TO YESTERDAY'S  
GFS/GEFS/UKMET THAT WERE IN THE SLOWER GROUP OF SOLUTIONS.  
 
RAUSCH  
 

 
 
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