868
FXHW01 KWNH 031126
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
725 AM EDT THU JUL 03 2008
VALID 00Z FRI JUL 04 2008 - 00Z FRI JUL 11 2008
THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN SEEMINGLY REASONABLE AGREEMENT
WITH THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION...BUT HAVE SOME SMALLER
SCALE DIFFERENCES THAT ARE TYPICALLY NOT EASILY RESOLVED AT LONGER
TIME FRAMES. FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...EXPECT A SURFACE
RIDGE NORTH OF THE STATE TO SUPPORT LIGHT TO MODERATE ISLAND
TRADES AND WITH SOME WINDWARD SHOWERS. ALOFT...A RIDGE OVER THE
ISLANDS TODAY SHOULD SLIP WWD THEREAFTER AND LEAVE POTENTIAL FOR
GENERALLY WEAK IMPULSES TO TRAVEL WWD ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF
THE REMAINING E-W RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED ALONG 30N. MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT RAINFALL ENHANCEMENT DUE TO THESE FEATURES
SHOULD BE MODEST AS DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED.
HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE INCLUDING POTENTIALLY THE REMNANTS OF
CURRENT ERN PAC TS BORIS THAT GUIDANCE BRINGS WELL SOUTH OF THE
ISLANDS NEXT WED/THU MIGHT INSTEAD BE ABLE TO WORK MORE INTO THE
STATE. THIS SEEMS POSSIBLE CONSIDERING THE EXTENT OF MID-UPPER
LEVEL TROFFING SHOWN IN MOST GUIDANCE BY THEN TO THE NW OF HAWAII
AND AS HEIGHTS GRADUALLY FALL OVER THE ISLANDS LEAVING ROOM TO
BRING MOISTURE INBOUND WITHIN A MEAN TROF/WEAKNESS ALOFT.
SCHICHTEL
Q
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