150  
FXHW01 KWNH 231228  
PMDHI  
 
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
828 AM EDT SAT JUN 23 2018  
 
VALID 00Z SUN JUN 24 2018 - 00Z SUN JUL 01 2018  
 
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE CENTRAL  
PACIFIC WITH SUBTROPICAL RIDGING ELONGATED BETWEEN 30 AND 40  
DEGREES NORTH. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A TYPICAL TRADE WIND PATTERN  
WITH MAINLY WINDWARD SHOWERS EXPECTED. BY LATE IN THE FORECAST  
PERIOD, THE EC MEAN IS SLIGHTLY MORE SUPPRESSED WITH THE SURFACE  
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC THAN THE GEFS MEAN AND THE  
EC MEAN ALSO INDICATES MORE MID-LEVEL TROUGHING TO THE NORTHWEST  
OF HAWAII.  
 
A WEAK INVERTED 500MB TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH HAWAII FROM  
THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, THE 00Z EC MEAN  
IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE PROGRESSION, WITH THE OPERATIONAL  
ECMWF CLOSE TO ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE 6Z GFS IS INDICATING MORE  
OF A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAN THE GEFS MEAN AND ECMWF.  
THIS WILL ENHANCE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY COINCIDENT WITH A RISE IN  
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN AN OTHERWISE FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER  
PATTERN. A SUSTAINED MODERATE TO BRISK TRADE WIND PATTERN IS  
EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH PERSISTENT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE  
NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE CENTERED NEAR 35 DEGREES NORTH.  
 
D. HAMRICK  
 

 
 
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