745  
FXHW01 KWNH 241206  
PMDHI  
 
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
805 AM EDT MON APR 24 2017  
 
VALID 00Z TUE APR 25 2017 - 00Z TUE MAY 02 2017  
 
AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE RIDGE WILL  
DELIVER SEASONABLE TRADES THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER STARTING ON  
FRIDAY, A STRONG DIGGING MID-LEVEL UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN DIGGING  
TOWARD THE STATE FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW A STRONG  
SURFACE COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE STATE, REACHING THE  
NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE ISLANDS BY FRIDAY EVENING. THE FULL  
LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL ALLOW A PLUME OF ANOMALOUS MOISTURE  
CONTENT TO POOL IN VICINITY OF THE STATE. THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND  
ENSEMBLES ALL GENERALLY SHOW THIS SCENARIO INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WITH  
MINOR DETAIL SPREAD. IN FACT, OPERATIONAL 00Z RUNS OF GFS AND  
ECMWF SHOW UPPER DYNAMICS CLOSING OFF, A CUT-OFF LOW FORMING AND  
THIS CIRCULATION CONTINUING TO DROP SOUTH TOWARD THE STATE. THESE  
FACTORS COMING TOGETHER COULD POTENTIALLY ALLOW HEAVY RAINFALL TO  
DEVELOP FROM OAHU TO THE BIS ISLAND.  
 
MUSHER  
 

 
 
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