828
FXHW40 KWBC 211231
PMDHCO
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
830AM EDT THU MAY 21 2026
MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID JUNE 2026
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) ANOMALIES IN THE RANGE OF -0.5 TO 0.5 DEGREES
CELSIUS (C) WERE OBSERVED AROUND THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS (KAUAI, OAHU, MAUI AND
THE BIG ISLAND) DURING THE PREVIOUS WEEK.
FROM JANUARY THROUGH APRIL 2026, RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE:
LIHUE AIRPORT 26.81 INCHES (191 PERCENT OF AVERAGE)
HONOLULU AIRPORT 20.25 INCHES (293 PERCENT OF AVERAGE)
KAHULUI AIRPORT 26.86 INCHES (321 PERCENT OF AVERAGE)
HILO AIRPORT 46.54 INCHES (116 PERCENT OF AVERAGE)
MOST CLIMATE MODELS OF THE NORTH AMERICAN MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (NMME) AND THE
INTERNATIONAL MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (IMME/C3S) PREDICT POSITIVE SST ANOMALIES
AROUND THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN JUNE 2026. BASED ON MODEL SST AND SURFACE AIR
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR KAUAI (LIHUE),
OAHU (HONOLULU), MAUI (KAHULUI), AND THE BIG ISLAND (HILO).
FOR THE JUNE 2026 PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK, THE PROBABILITY OF ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS ELEVATED FOR THE BIG ISLAND, WHILE EQUAL CHANCES (EC) FOR
ABOVE, NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED FOR KAUAI, OAHU AND
MAUI. THE OUTLOOK IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST MODELS OF THE NMME AND IMME, AS WELL
AS STATISTICAL FORECASTS FROM THE CONSTRUCTED ANALOG (CA), CANONICAL
CORRELATION ANALYSIS (CCA), OPTIMAL CLIMATE NORMALS (OCN), ENSO-OCN, AND
CONSOLIDATION OF CCA/CA/ENSO-OCN/NMME.
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
HILO A60 75.4 0.4 A40 5.3 6.3 8.7
KAHULUI A60 78.0 0.5 EC 0.1 0.1 0.2
HONOLULU A50 80.3 0.4 EC 0.1 0.2 0.3
LIHUE A40 78.1 0.4 EC 1.1 1.3 1.6
SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID JJA 2026 - JJA 2027
REFER TO THE PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF THE LONG-LEAD SEASONAL OUTLOOKS FOR THE
CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) AND ALASKA FOR FURTHER DESCRIPTION OF THE EL NIñO
SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) OUTLOOK AND OTHER CLIMATE CONDITIONS RELEVANT TO
THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK. ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY PRESENT WITH
EQUATORIAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) NEAR-TO-ABOVE-AVERAGE IN THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN, AND NEAR-TO-BELOW-AVERAGE IN THE WESTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN. ABOVE-AVERAGE SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE STRENGTHENED IN THE
EAST-CENTRAL AND EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN. LOW-LEVEL WINDS WERE NEAR
AVERAGE ACROSS MOST OF THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN, AND UPPER-LEVEL WIND
ANOMALIES WERE WESTERLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL PACIFIC. ENHANCED
CONVECTION AND PRECIPITATION WAS EVIDENT NORTH OF THE EQUATOR NEAR THE DATE
LINE, WHILE SUPPRESSED CONVECTION AND PRECIPITATION WAS OBSERVED OVER
INDONESIA, THE PHILIPPINES, AND SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR NEAR THE DATE LINE. EL
NINO IS LIKELY TO EMERGE SOON WITH 82% CHANCE IN MAY-JULY 2026 AND CONTINUE
THROUGH NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WINTER 2026-27. HISTORICALLY, EL NIñO CONDITIONS
FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII IN THE BOREAL SUMMER AND EARLY
AUTUMN. THE HAWAII SEASONAL OUTLOOK FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION IS BASED
PRIMARILY ON DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS FROM THE NMME AND STATISTICAL FORECASTS
(CCA, CA, ENSO-OCN, AND OCN).
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE PREDICTED IN THE
OUTLOOK FOR LIHUE, HONOLULU, KAHULUI AND HILO BEGINNING IN JUNE-JULY-AUGUST
(JJA) AND CONTINUING THROUGH OCTOBER-NOVEMBER-DECEMBER (OND) 2026, SUPPORTED BY
NEARLY ALL DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS FROM THE NMME AND C3S, THE CA STATISTICAL
MODEL, AND CONSISTENT WITH DECADAL TIMESCALE TEMPERATURE TRENDS FOR THE REGION.
DUE TO INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE IMPACTS OF ENSO AND WEAKENING SIGNALS IN
FORECAST GUIDANCE AT LONGER LEADS, EQUAL CHANCES (EC) FOR ABOVE, NEAR OR BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED FOR HAWAII BEGINNING IN
NOVEMBER-DECEMBER-JANUARY (NDJ) 2026-27 AND EXTENDING THROUGH LONGER LEADS.
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST OVER ALL
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, KAUAI, OAHU, MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND, FROM JJA 2026 TO
SEPTEMBER-OCTOBER-NOVEMBER (SON) 2026, CONSISTENT WITH MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL
FORECASTS FROM THE NMME AND STATISTICAL FORECASTS, INCLUDING CCA, CA, ENSO-OCN,
AND NMME CONSOLIDATION. DUE TO CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE PRECIPITATION
FORECASTS FROM DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS AND THE DECREASE IN FORECAST
SIGNAL, EC IS INDICATED OVER THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BEGINNING IN OND 2026 AND
EXTENDING THROUGH LONGER LEADS.
HILO
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
JJA 2026 A70 75.2 0.4 A60 19.4 27.2 31.4
JAS 2026 A70 76.1 0.4 A60 25.2 28.6 33.4
ASO 2026 A70 76.4 0.4 A50 26.1 28.8 33.3
SON 2026 A70 76.2 0.4 A40 24.3 30.2 40.8
OND 2026 A70 75.5 0.4 EC 28.3 34.5 42.0
NDJ 2026 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.4 36.6 43.0
DJF 2027 EC 72.8 0.4 EC 19.6 30.2 33.3
JFM 2027 EC 71.8 0.4 EC 22.0 32.0 44.5
FMA 2027 EC 71.7 0.4 EC 24.6 34.1 45.5
MAM 2027 EC 72.0 0.5 EC 22.5 28.4 34.0
AMJ 2027 EC 72.9 0.5 EC 21.4 23.7 29.0
MJJ 2027 EC 74.0 0.4 EC 20.2 27.5 29.1
JJA 2027 EC 75.2 0.4 EC 19.4 27.2 31.4
KAHULUI
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
JJA 2026 A70 77.7 0.4 A50 0.7 1.1 1.5
JAS 2026 A70 79.0 0.4 A50 0.8 1.1 1.6
ASO 2026 A70 79.4 0.4 A40 0.8 1.6 2.5
SON 2026 A70 79.1 0.4 A40 2.1 3.3 4.8
OND 2026 A60 77.8 0.4 EC 4.2 5.3 8.1
NDJ 2026 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 5.2 7.6 9.5
DJF 2027 EC 73.8 0.4 EC 4.6 6.9 8.7
JFM 2027 EC 72.5 0.4 EC 4.2 6.2 8.2
FMA 2027 EC 72.3 0.4 EC 3.2 4.1 6.4
MAM 2027 EC 73.0 0.4 EC 2.5 3.5 4.6
AMJ 2027 EC 74.3 0.5 EC 1.2 1.6 2.2
MJJ 2027 EC 76.0 0.5 EC 0.7 1.1 1.8
JJA 2027 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5
HONOLULU
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
JJA 2026 A60 79.9 0.4 A40 0.7 0.8 1.3
JAS 2026 A70 81.3 0.4 A40 1.0 1.4 1.7
ASO 2026 A70 81.7 0.4 A40 1.6 2.4 3.1
SON 2026 A70 81.4 0.4 A40 2.5 4.0 5.6
OND 2026 A50 80.0 0.4 EC 4.4 6.4 8.5
NDJ 2026 EC 77.7 0.5 EC 3.9 5.6 8.8
DJF 2027 EC 75.3 0.5 EC 3.7 5.6 8.6
JFM 2027 EC 73.9 0.4 EC 2.1 4.6 7.8
FMA 2027 EC 73.8 0.4 EC 1.9 3.2 4.7
MAM 2027 EC 74.8 0.4 EC 1.8 2.6 3.0
AMJ 2027 EC 76.3 0.4 EC 1.2 1.6 1.8
MJJ 2027 EC 78.2 0.4 EC 0.8 1.4 1.6
JJA 2027 EC 79.9 0.4 EC 0.7 0.8 1.3
LIHUE
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
JJA 2026 A60 77.7 0.4 A40 4.4 5.3 6.9
JAS 2026 A70 79.0 0.3 A40 5.3 6.1 7.8
ASO 2026 A70 79.4 0.3 A40 6.2 7.9 8.4
SON 2026 A70 79.1 0.3 A40 9.2 10.0 11.2
OND 2026 A50 77.8 0.3 EC 9.2 11.7 15.6
NDJ 2026 EC 75.7 0.3 EC 8.6 12.1 16.9
DJF 2027 EC 73.6 0.4 EC 7.5 8.4 14.0
JFM 2027 EC 72.2 0.4 EC 6.5 8.8 13.8
FMA 2027 EC 72.1 0.5 EC 5.8 8.4 9.9
MAM 2027 EC 72.8 0.5 EC 5.3 6.6 8.0
AMJ 2027 EC 74.2 0.5 EC 4.7 5.5 6.0
MJJ 2027 EC 76.0 0.5 EC 4.9 5.4 5.9
JJA 2027 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 4.4 5.3 6.9
FORECASTER: LUKE HE
ANOMALIES ARE BASED ON THE 1991-2020 MEANS.
CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATED EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE PREDICTED PARAMETER WILL
FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE CATEGORIES, WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIC IN THE
TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULATE TILT
OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR
EXAMPLE A40 MEANS A 40% CHANCE THAT THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OR TOTAL
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE NORMAL CLASS, B40 MEANS A 40% CHANCE THAT
THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OR TOTAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW NORMAL
CLASS, AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OR TOTAL
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED, ALL
CATEGORIES ARE EQUALLY LIKELY.
NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THE VALID
PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD, OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS
SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO, THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE
ISSUANCES OF THE NEW SET NET MONTH, ON THU JUN 18, 2026.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page