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FXHW40 KWBC 151231
PMDHCO
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
830AM EDT THU OCT 15 2009
MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID FOR NOVEMBER 2009
SST ANOMALIES NEAR HAWAII ARE NOW AROUND ZERO DEGREE C.
FOR JANUARY 2009 THROUGH THE END OF SEPTEMBER - RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS
WERE:
- LIHUE AIRPORT 17.48 INCHES (67 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- HONOLULU AIRPORT 7.98 INCHES (73 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- KAHULUI AIRPORT 9.48 INCHES (75 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- HILO AIRPORT 87.18 INCHES (96 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
NCEP TOOLS GIVE NO INDICATION OF EITHER ABOVE OR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR
HAWAII FOR NOVEMBER 2009. NCEP MODELS ALSO PREDICT EQUAL CHANCES FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL-AND BELOW FOR TEMPERATURE FOR HAWAII FOR NOVEMBER 2009.
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
HILO EC 74.2 0.4 EC 8.8 12.9 15.8
KAHULUI EC 76.1 0.6 EC 1.0 2.0 2.2
HONOLULU EC 77.4 0.7 EC 0.6 1.0 1.5
LIHUE EC 75.8 0.5 EC 2.3 2.9 3.8
SEASONAL OUTLOOK DISCUSSION VALID FOR NDJ 2009 TO NDJ 2010
REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST AND
DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. EL NINO IS PRESENT ACROSS
THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN. DURING THE LAST FOUR WEEKS - SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE (SST) ANOMALIES REMAINED POSITIVE ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC
OCEAN - EXCEPT IN THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC - WHICH HAVE BECOME NEGATIVE.
SUBSURFACE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT ANOMALIES CONTINUED TO REFLECT A DEEP LAYER OF
ANOMALOUS WARMTH BETWEEN THE OCEAN SURFACE AND THE THERMOCLINE - PARTICULARLY
IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL PACIFIC. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS INDICATE ENHANCED
CONVECTION OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL PACIFIC AND SUPPRESSED CONVECTION OVER
INDONESIA. A MAJORITY OF THE MODEL FORECASTS FOR THE NINO-3.4 SST INDEX SUGGEST
THAT EL NINO WILL REACH AT LEAST MODERATE STRENGTH DURING THE NORTHERN
HEMISPHERE FALL. BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC AND ON
RESULTS FROM HISTORICAL STUDIES ON THE EFFECTS OF WARM EPISODES - DRIER THAN
NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER HAWAII AND SOME U.S.-AFFILATED ISLANDS
DURING THE WINTER.
NCEP MODELS PREDICT A TENDENCY FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR HAWAII FROM DJF
TO MAM 2010. BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII IS EXPECTED FROM DJF TO MAM
2010 BASED ON THE EL NINO COMPOSITE AND NCEP FORECST TOOLS.
HILO
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
NDJ 2009 EC 72.8 0.4 EC 25.5 32.9 41.7
DJF 2009 B40 72.0 0.4 B40 20.1 27.2 35.9
JFM 2010 B40 71.8 0.4 B40 23.9 30.9 39.4
FMA 2010 B40 72.1 0.4 B40 29.5 35.9 43.1
MAM 2010 B40 72.8 0.5 B40 28.3 34.9 42.6
AMJ 2010 EC 73.9 0.4 EC 22.0 26.8 32.2
MJJ 2010 EC 75.0 0.4 EC 19.1 23.1 27.8
JJA 2010 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 19.5 24.2 29.6
JAS 2010 EC 76.3 0.4 EC 22.2 27.1 32.7
ASO 2010 EC 76.2 0.4 EC 23.4 27.0 31.0
SON 2010 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 25.8 31.7 38.4
OND 2010 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.1 33.1 41.3
NDJ 2010 EC 72.8 0.4 EC 25.5 32.9 41.7
KAHULUI
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
NDJ 2009 EC 73.8 0.5 EC 5.7 7.8 10.4
DJF 2009 B40 72.5 0.5 B40 6.8 9.0 11.7
JFM 2010 B40 72.4 0.5 B40 6.0 8.1 10.6
FMA 2010 B40 73.2 0.5 B40 4.3 6.0 8.1
MAM 2010 B40 74.4 0.6 B40 2.9 4.2 5.8
AMJ 2010 EC 75.8 0.6 EC 1.0 1.8 3.1
MJJ 2010 EC 77.3 0.6 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5
JJA 2010 EC 78.6 0.5 EC 0.8 1.1 1.3
JAS 2010 EC 79.1 0.5 EC 0.9 1.2 1.5
ASO 2010 EC 78.9 0.5 EC 1.3 1.8 2.5
SON 2010 EC 77.8 0.5 EC 2.2 3.1 4.3
OND 2010 EC 75.9 0.5 EC 4.2 5.7 7.6
NDJ 2010 EC 73.8 0.5 EC 5.7 7.8 10.4
HONOLULU
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
NDJ 2009 EC 73.8 0.5 EC 5.7 7.8 10.4
DJF 2009 B40 73.5 0.4 B40 5.0 6.9 9.1
JFM 2010 B40 73.5 0.4 B40 4.1 5.8 8.0
FMA 2010 B40 74.5 0.4 B40 3.4 4.6 6.1
MAM 2010 B40 76.0 0.4 B40 2.4 3.2 4.3
AMJ 2010 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 1.2 1.8 2.6
MJJ 2010 EC 79.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 2.0
JJA 2010 EC 80.7 0.4 EC 0.8 1.2 1.6
JAS 2010 EC 81.2 0.4 EC 1.1 1.5 2.0
ASO 2010 EC 81.0 0.5 EC 1.7 2.6 3.8
SON 2010 EC 79.6 0.5 EC 2.7 4.0 5.9
OND 2010 EC 77.3 0.5 EC 4.5 6.2 8.4
NDJ 2010 EC 73.8 0.5 EC 5.7 7.8 10.4
LIHUE
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
NDJ 2009 EC 73.6 0.3 EC 9.8 12.5 15.8
DJF 2009 B40 72.4 0.4 B40 8.6 11.4 14.7
JFM 2010 B40 72.4 0.4 B40 8.0 10.8 14.1
FMA 2010 B40 73.1 0.4 B40 7.5 9.6 12.0
MAM 2010 B40 74.4 0.4 B40 7.3 9.2 11.4
AMJ 2010 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 5.3 7.0 9.0
MJJ 2010 EC 77.5 0.4 EC 4.6 6.2 8.0
JJA 2010 EC 78.8 0.3 EC 4.6 5.6 6.6
JAS 2010 EC 79.3 0.3 EC 5.1 6.2 7.4
ASO 2010 EC 79.0 0.3 EC 6.3 8.0 10.0
SON 2010 EC 77.7 0.3 EC 9.1 10.9 12.9
OND 2010 EC 75.6 0.3 EC 10.7 13.3 16.2
NDJ 2010 EC 73.6 0.3 EC 9.8 12.5 15.8
FORECASTER: LUKE HE
NOTE - ON SEPTEMBER 18 2003...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) MADE A CHANGE
TO PROBABILITIES EXPRESSED FOR THE ABOVE NORMAL...NEAR NORMAL...AND BELOW
NORMAL CATEGORIES IN ONE-MONTH AND THREE-MONTH OUTLOOKS. CPC WILL NO LONGER
EXPRESS PROBABILITIES AS ANOMALIES FROM 33 PERCENT. INSTEAD WE USE THE ACTUAL
PROBABILITES FOR THE CATEGORIES. PLEASE SEE THE FOLLOWING LINK FOR MORE DETAILS:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/90DAY/SERVICE_CHANGE_LL.HTML
NOTE - EC (EQUAL CHANCES) HAS REPLACED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES) AT
THOSE LOCATIONS WHERE THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN.
CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY
ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE
TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT
OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NORMAL - OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK.
FOR EXAMPLE -A37 MEANS A 37% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
IN THE ABOVE CLASS - B36 MEANS A 36% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT
TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS
SPECIFIED THE PROBABILITY OF THE MOST LIKELY CATEGORY CANNOT BE PREDICTED.
NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID
PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS
SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE
ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THU NOV 19, 2009
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