656  
FXHW40 KWBC 161332  
PMDHCO  
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS  
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
830AM EST THU NOV 16 2017  
 
MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID DECEMBER 2017  
 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) ANOMALIES SURROUNDING THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ARE  
 
CURRENTLY BETWEEN POSITIVE ONE-HALF DEGREE AND ONE DEGREE C.  
 
FOR JANUARY 2017 THROUGH THE END OF OCTOBER 2017, RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS  
WERE:  
 
- LIHUE AIRPORT 21.31 INCHES (78 PERCENT OF NORMAL)  
 
- HONOLULU AIRPORT 18.77 INCHES (164 PERCENT OF NORMAL)  
 
- KAHULUI AIRPORT 17.09 INCHES (139 PERCENT OF NORMAL)  
 
- HILO AIRPORT 74.72 INCHES (75 PERCENT OF NORMAL)  
 
THE NCEP CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM (CFS) AND OTHER CLIMATE MODELS RUN AS A PART  
OF THE NORTH AMERICAN MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (NMME) PREDICT ABOVE NORMAL SSTS  
AROUND THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TO CONTINUE FOR DECEMBER 2017. THIS ELEVATES THE  
CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL MONTHLY MEAN AIR TEMPERATURES FOR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS  
IN DECEMBER 2017. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE FAVORED FOR HILO AND EQUAL  
CHANCES (EC) FOR ABOVE, NEAR, OR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE INDICATED FOR  
KAHULUI, HONOLULU AND LIHUE BY DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS DURING DECEMBER 2017.  
 
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION  
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV  
HILO A60 72.5 0.4 A40 6.8 10.2 13.6  
KAHULUI A60 73.5 0.5 EC 1.9 2.7 3.4  
HONOLULU A65 74.9 0.6 EC 0.8 1.3 3.8  
LIHUE A70 73.3 0.5 EC 1.8 3.2 5.5  
 
SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID DJF 2017 - DJF 2018  
 
REFER TO THE PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION ON LONG-LEAD SEASONAL OUTLOOKS FOR THE CONUS  
AND ALASKA, DISCUSSION OF THE FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SSTS, AND FOR THE  
GENERAL BACKGROUND FOR THE SEASONAL FORECAST, INCLUDING DETAILS ON THE CURRENT  
STATE OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND OCEAN. LA NINA CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ARE PRESENT  
ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN. EQUATORIAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS)  
ARE BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NEGATIVE  
SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES HAVE ALSO STRENGTHENED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND  
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. ATMOSPHERIC CONVECTION ANOMALIES WERE SUPPRESSED NEAR  
THE INTERNATIONAL DATE LINE, WHILE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WINDS WERE MAINLY NEAR  
AVERAGE AND THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WERE STRONGLY WESTERLY. THE NCEP CFS AND MOST  
OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FROM THE LATEST RUNS OF THE NMME FAVOR (WITH ABOUT A  
65-75% CHANCE) THE CONTINUATION OF LA NINA AT LEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN  
HEMISPHERE WINTER 2017-18.  
 
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED FOR HAWAII  
FROM DJF 2017-2018 TO MJJ 2018 DUE TO PREDICTED ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE  
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. EQUAL CHANCES (EC) FOR ABOVE, NEAR, OR BELOW  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED AT ALL LOCATIONS FOR JJA 2018 AND BEYOND.  
 
DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL TOOLS FAVOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII  
FROM DJF 2018 TO FMA 2018. THE CONSTRUCTED ANALOG (CA) AND CANONICAL  
CORRELATION ANALYSIS (CCA) TOOLS SHOW BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII IN  
AMJ 2018 AND MJJ 2018. EQUAL CHANCES (EC) FOR ABOVE, NEAR, OR BELOW MEDIAN  
PRECIPITATION ARE INDICATED FOR HAWAII IN MAM 2018, JJA 2018 AND LONGER LEADS.  
 
HILO  
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION  
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV  
DJF 2018 A60 72.8 0.4 A50 19.6 30.2 33.3  
JFM 2018 A55 71.8 0.4 A45 22.0 32.0 44.5  
FMA 2018 A55 71.7 0.4 A40 24.6 34.1 45.5  
MAM 2018 A50 72.0 0.5 EC 22.5 28.4 34.0  
AMJ 2018 A45 72.9 0.5 B40 21.4 23.7 29.0  
MJJ 2018 A40 74.0 0.4 B40 20.2 27.5 29.1  
JJA 2018 EC 75.2 0.4 EC 19.4 27.2 31.4  
JAS 2018 EC 76.1 0.4 EC 25.2 28.6 33.4  
ASO 2018 EC 76.4 0.4 EC 26.1 28.8 33.3  
SON 2018 EC 76.2 0.4 EC 24.3 30.2 40.8  
OND 2018 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 28.3 34.5 42.0  
NDJ 2018 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.4 36.6 43.0  
DJF 2019 EC 72.8 0.4 EC 19.6 30.2 33.3  
\N KAHULUI  
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION  
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV  
DJF 2018 A60 73.8 0.4 A50 4.6 6.9 8.7  
JFM 2018 A55 72.5 0.4 A45 4.2 6.2 8.2  
FMA 2018 A55 72.3 0.4 A40 3.2 4.1 6.4  
MAM 2018 A50 73.0 0.4 EC 2.5 3.5 4.6  
AMJ 2018 A45 74.3 0.5 B40 1.2 1.6 2.2  
MJJ 2018 A40 76.0 0.5 B40 0.7 1.1 1.8  
JJA 2018 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5  
JAS 2018 EC 79.0 0.4 EC 0.8 1.1 1.6  
ASO 2018 EC 79.4 0.4 EC 0.8 1.6 2.5  
SON 2018 EC 79.1 0.4 EC 2.1 3.3 4.8  
OND 2018 EC 77.8 0.4 EC 4.2 5.3 8.1  
NDJ 2018 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 5.2 7.6 9.5  
DJF 2019 EC 73.8 0.4 EC 4.6 6.9 8.7  
\N HONOLULU  
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION  
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV  
DJF 2018 A60 75.3 0.5 A50 3.7 5.6 8.6  
JFM 2018 A60 73.9 0.4 A45 2.1 4.6 7.8  
FMA 2018 A55 73.8 0.4 A40 1.9 3.2 4.7  
MAM 2018 A50 74.8 0.4 EC 1.8 2.6 3.0  
AMJ 2018 A45 76.3 0.4 B40 1.2 1.6 1.8  
MJJ 2018 A40 78.2 0.4 B40 0.8 1.4 1.6  
JJA 2018 EC 79.9 0.4 EC 0.7 0.8 1.3  
JAS 2018 EC 81.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 1.7  
ASO 2018 EC 81.7 0.4 EC 1.6 2.4 3.1  
SON 2018 EC 81.4 0.4 EC 2.5 4.0 5.6  
OND 2018 EC 80.0 0.4 EC 4.4 6.4 8.5  
NDJ 2018 EC 77.7 0.5 EC 3.9 5.6 8.8  
DJF 2019 EC 75.3 0.5 EC 3.7 5.6 8.6  
\N LIHUE  
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION  
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV  
DJF 2018 A65 73.6 0.4 A50 7.5 8.4 14.0  
JFM 2018 A60 72.2 0.4 A45 6.5 8.8 13.8  
FMA 2018 A60 72.1 0.5 A40 5.8 8.4 9.9  
MAM 2018 A55 72.8 0.5 EC 5.3 6.6 8.0  
AMJ 2018 A50 74.2 0.5 B40 4.7 5.5 6.0  
MJJ 2018 A45 76.0 0.5 B40 4.9 5.4 5.9  
JJA 2018 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 4.4 5.3 6.9  
JAS 2018 EC 79.0 0.3 EC 5.3 6.1 7.8  
ASO 2018 EC 79.4 0.3 EC 6.2 7.9 8.4  
SON 2018 EC 79.1 0.3 EC 9.2 10.0 11.2  
OND 2018 EC 77.8 0.3 EC 9.2 11.7 15.6  
NDJ 2018 EC 75.7 0.3 EC 8.6 12.1 16.9  
DJF 2019 EC 73.6 0.4 EC 7.5 8.4 14.0  
\NFORECASTER: LUKE HE  
 
ANOMALIES BASED ON 1981-2010 MEANS  
CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY  
ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE  
TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT  
OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE-NORMAL OR BELOW-NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR  
EXAMPLE A40 MEANS A 40% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE  
ABOVE CLASS, B40 MEANS A 40% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL  
BE IN THE BELOW CLASS, AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR  
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR-NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED, ALL  
CATEGORIES ARE EQUALLY LIKELY.  
NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID  
PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS  
SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE  
ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THU DEC 21, 2017.  
 

 
 
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