061
FXHW40 KWBC 191547
PMDHCO
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
830AM EST THU NOV 19 2009
MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID FOR DECEMBER 2009
SST ANOMALIES NEAR HAWAII ARE NOW AROUND ZERO TO POSITIVE 0.5 DEGREE C.
FOR JANUARY 2009 THROUGH THE END OF OCTOBER - RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS
WERE:
- LIHUE AIRPORT 20.29 INCHES (67 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- HONOLULU AIRPORT 9.25 INCHES (70 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- KAHULUI AIRPORT 9.78 INCHES (71 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- HILO AIRPORT 96.66 INCHES (96 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
NCEP TOOLS PREDICT BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII FOR DECEMBER 2009.
NCEP MODELS PREDICT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR HILO AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURE FOR LIHUE FOR DECEMBER 2009.
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
HILO A40 72.4 0.5 B40 5.8 8.3 12.0
KAHULUI EC 73.6 0.5 B40 1.3 2.3 2.9
HONOLULU EC 74.5 0.7 B40 1.1 1.5 2.9
LIHUE B40 73.2 0.5 B40 2.2 3.6 4.7
SEASONAL OUTLOOK DISCUSSION VALID FOR DJF 2009 TO DJF 2010
REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST AND
DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. EL NINO IS PRESENT ACROSS
THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN. SINCE OCTOBER 2009 - SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ANOMALIES HAVE INCREASED ACROSS MUCH OF THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WERE AT LEAST 1 DEGREE C ABOVE-AVERAGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
AND EAST-CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. SUBSURFACE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT ANOMALIES
ALSO INCREASED DURING THE MONTH. THE MOST RECENT PERIOD OF SUBSURFACE OCEANIC
HEAT CONTENT ANOMALIES SHOW A CONTINUED EASTWARD EXPANSION OF POSITIVE
ANOMALIES IN THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC NEAR 50 -150M DEPTH. LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY AND
UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES STRENGTHENED OVER MUCH OF THE EQUATORIAL
PACIFIC. THE PATTERN OF TROPICAL CONVECTION ALSO REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH EL
NIO - WITH ENHANCED CONVECTION OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL PACIFIC AND SUPPRESSED
CONVECTION OVER INDONESIA. MOST OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS EVENT WILL LAST
THROUGH MARCH-MAY 2010. BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC AND
ON RESULTS FROM HISTORICAL STUDIES ON THE EFFECTS OF WARM EPISODES - DRIER THAN
NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER HAWAII AND SOME U.S.-AFFILATED ISLANDS
DURING THE WINTER.
NCEP MODELS PREDICT A TENDENCY FOR NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR HAWAII
FROM DJF TO MAM 2010. BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII IS EXPECTED FROM
DJF TO MAM 2010 BASED ON THE EL NINO COMPOSITE AND NCEP FORECST TOOLS.
HILO
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
DJF 2009 EC 72.0 0.4 B40 20.1 27.2 35.9
JFM 2010 B40 71.8 0.4 B40 23.9 30.9 39.4
FMA 2010 B40 72.1 0.4 B40 29.5 35.9 43.1
MAM 2010 B40 72.8 0.5 B40 28.3 34.9 42.6
AMJ 2010 EC 73.9 0.4 EC 22.0 26.8 32.2
MJJ 2010 EC 75.0 0.4 EC 19.1 23.1 27.8
JJA 2010 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 19.5 24.2 29.6
JAS 2010 EC 76.3 0.4 EC 22.2 27.1 32.7
ASO 2010 EC 76.2 0.4 EC 23.4 27.0 31.0
SON 2010 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 25.8 31.7 38.4
OND 2010 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.1 33.1 41.3
NDJ 2010 EC 72.8 0.4 EC 25.5 32.9 41.7
DJF 2010 EC 72.0 0.4 EC 20.1 27.2 35.9
KAHULUI
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
DJF 2009 B40 72.5 0.5 B40 6.8 9.0 11.7
JFM 2010 B40 72.4 0.5 B40 6.0 8.1 10.6
FMA 2010 B40 73.2 0.5 B40 4.3 6.0 8.1
MAM 2010 B40 74.4 0.6 B40 2.9 4.2 5.8
AMJ 2010 EC 75.8 0.6 EC 1.0 1.8 3.1
MJJ 2010 EC 77.3 0.6 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5
JJA 2010 EC 78.6 0.5 EC 0.8 1.1 1.3
JAS 2010 EC 79.1 0.5 EC 0.9 1.2 1.5
ASO 2010 EC 78.9 0.5 EC 1.3 1.8 2.5
SON 2010 EC 77.8 0.5 EC 2.2 3.1 4.3
OND 2010 EC 75.9 0.5 EC 4.2 5.7 7.6
NDJ 2010 EC 73.8 0.5 EC 5.7 7.8 10.4
DJF 2010 EC 72.5 0.5 EC 6.8 9.0 11.7
HONOLULU
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
DJF 2009 B40 73.5 0.4 B40 5.0 6.9 9.1
JFM 2010 B40 73.5 0.4 B40 4.1 5.8 8.0
FMA 2010 B40 74.5 0.4 B40 3.4 4.6 6.1
MAM 2010 B40 76.0 0.4 B40 2.4 3.2 4.3
AMJ 2010 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 1.2 1.8 2.6
MJJ 2010 EC 79.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 2.0
JJA 2010 EC 80.7 0.4 EC 0.8 1.2 1.6
JAS 2010 EC 81.2 0.4 EC 1.1 1.5 2.0
ASO 2010 EC 81.0 0.5 EC 1.7 2.6 3.8
SON 2010 EC 79.6 0.5 EC 2.7 4.0 5.9
OND 2010 EC 77.3 0.5 EC 4.5 6.2 8.4
NDJ 2010 EC 73.8 0.5 EC 5.7 7.8 10.4
DJF 2010 EC 73.5 0.4 EC 5.0 6.9 9.1
LIHUE
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
DJF 2009 B40 72.4 0.4 B40 8.6 11.4 14.7
JFM 2010 B40 72.4 0.4 B40 8.0 10.8 14.1
FMA 2010 B40 73.1 0.4 B40 7.5 9.6 12.0
MAM 2010 B40 74.4 0.4 B40 7.3 9.2 11.4
AMJ 2010 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 5.3 7.0 9.0
MJJ 2010 EC 77.5 0.4 EC 4.6 6.2 8.0
JJA 2010 EC 78.8 0.3 EC 4.6 5.6 6.6
JAS 2010 EC 79.3 0.3 EC 5.1 6.2 7.4
ASO 2010 EC 79.0 0.3 EC 6.3 8.0 10.0
SON 2010 EC 77.7 0.3 EC 9.1 10.9 12.9
OND 2010 EC 75.6 0.3 EC 10.7 13.3 16.2
NDJ 2010 EC 73.6 0.3 EC 9.8 12.5 15.8
DJF 2010 EC 72.4 0.4 EC 8.6 11.4 14.7
FORECASTER: LUKE HE
NOTE - ON SEPTEMBER 18 2003...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) MADE A CHANGE
TO PROBABILITIES EXPRESSED FOR THE ABOVE NORMAL...NEAR NORMAL...AND BELOW
NORMAL CATEGORIES IN ONE-MONTH AND THREE-MONTH OUTLOOKS. CPC WILL NO LONGER
EXPRESS PROBABILITIES AS ANOMALIES FROM 33 PERCENT. INSTEAD WE USE THE ACTUAL
PROBABILITES FOR THE CATEGORIES. PLEASE SEE THE FOLLOWING LINK FOR MORE DETAILS:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/90DAY/SERVICE_CHANGE_LL.HTML
NOTE - EC (EQUAL CHANCES) HAS REPLACED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES) AT
THOSE LOCATIONS WHERE THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN.
CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY
ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE
TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT
OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NORMAL - OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK.
FOR EXAMPLE -A37 MEANS A 37% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
IN THE ABOVE CLASS - B36 MEANS A 36% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT
TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS
SPECIFIED THE PROBABILITY OF THE MOST LIKELY CATEGORY CANNOT BE PREDICTED.
NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID
PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS
SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE
ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THU DEC 17, 2009
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