719  
FXUS01 KWBC 231959  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
353 PM EDT THU MAR 23 2017  
 
VALID 00Z FRI MAR 24 2017 - 00Z SUN MAR 26 2017  
 
...SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS  
AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY...  
 
...PRIME CONDITIONS FOR THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRES ACROSS THE  
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...  
 
...INCREASINGLY ACTIVE AND WET PATTERN FOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA UP  
TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND EAST TO THE NORTHERN GREAT  
BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...  
 
A ROBUST SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE  
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS IS RESULTING IN A DEEP PULL OF WARM MOIST  
UNSTABLE AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM, WITH A  
STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE SURFACE LOW  
PROVIDING AMPLE LIFT. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FACTORS IS  
PROVIDING THE NECESSARY FUEL FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS  
MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON EVENING,  
MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY FRIDAY. SOME OF  
THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE, ESPECIALLY DURING THE PEAK  
HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLINED  
A PORTION OF THE HIGH PLAINS IN A SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR SEVERE  
WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE  
MAIN THREATS. THIS SLIGHT RISK AREA SHIFTS EASTWARD, ENCOMPASSING  
MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR  
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER  
WEBSITE FOR MORE INFORMATION.  
 
NORTHEAST OF THE LOW, A WARM FRONT WILL BE THE EPICENTER FOR  
WIDESPREAD RAIN, POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION  
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  
MEANWHILE, ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, SNOW  
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL  
ROCKIES TONIGHT, BEFORE TAPERING OFF AS THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES  
EASTWARD DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN  
IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THESE AREAS. AND ON THE WEST  
AND SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT, STRONG WINDS ARE IN PLACE.  
THIS IS COUPLING WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS, CREATING FAVORABLE  
CONDITIONS FOR WILDFIRES TO RAPIDLY SPREAD -- NUMEROUS COUNTIES  
FROM SOUTHWEST WYOMING SOUTHWARD TO NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS  
HAVE HIGH WIND AND RED FLAG WARNINGS IN EFFECT.  
 
ACROSS THE WEST, A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL SPREAD MODERATE TO  
LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION FROM COASTAL CENTRAL CALIFORNIA  
NORTHWARD TO THE CANADIAN BORDER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS,  
BEFORE MOVING INLAND. AS USUAL, OROGRAPHICS WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE  
IN PLACEMENT OF THE MORE CONCENTRATED ACTIVITY. THE HEAVIEST  
AMOUNTS MAY BE ACROSS THE SISKIYOU AND SHASTA RANGES WHERE THE  
ONSHORE FLOW AND VERTICAL MOTIONS WILL BE STRONGEST. PRECIPITATION  
WILL PRIMARILY FALL AS RAIN, CHANGING OVER TO SNOW IN THE HIGHEST  
ELEVATIONS. LOCATIONS ABOVE 5,000 FEET IN SOUTHERN WASHINGTON AND  
FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COULD SEE SNOW IN EXCESS OF 8 INCHES  
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE  
SIERRA NEVADAS WHERE UP TO 2 FEET OF SNOW COULD FALL ON THE  
HIGHEST PEAKS DURING THIS TIME.  
 
WIX/CAMPBELL  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_WBG.PHP  

 
 
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