059
FXUS04 KWBC 080950
QPFPFD
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
449 AM EST SUN NOV 08 2009
FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID NOV 08/1200 UTC THRU NOV 11/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
THE 06Z MDL RUNS WERE IN VRY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z RUNS..AT
LEAST MASS FIELD-WISE..SO MADE ONLY
VRY MINOR CHGS TO THE PRELIM DAY 1 QPF.
DAY 1...
..PAC NW INTO THE NRN GT BASIN
POST FNTL ONSHORE FLO CONDS INTO THE PAC NW 1ST PART OF THIS PD WL
BE REPLACED BY BACKING LOW LVL FLO LTR IN THE PD AHD OF THE NEXT
MORE SIGNIFICANT H5 TROF MOVG INTO THE NERN PAC/GULF OF AK SUN
NGT/ERY MON MRNG. THE BRIEF PD OF WLY UPSLOPE CONDS ERY SUN SHLD
LEAD TO SOME LGT TO LCLY MDT PCPN WA AND NRN OR CSTL RANGES INTO
THE CASCADES..BFR THE MORE SSWLY STG H85 FLO AND APCHG CDFNT LTR
SUN NGT BRING INCREASED PCPN TO MAINLY PTNS OF NWRN WA. FOR THE
MOST PART..THE LATEST MDL RUNS ARE IN VRY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO..SO HAVE NO PROB WITH THEIR MASS FIELD SOLNS..AND IN FACT
EVEN THE MDL QPFS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT. THUS..MADE ONLY SLGT
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MDL QPFS. HIER ELEV SNOWS STILL LIKELY FM THE
CASCADES INTO THE MTNS OF NRN ID AND NWRN MT..PLS SEE THE QPFHSD
FOR DETAILS ON THE SNOWFALL POTNL.
..WRN GULF CST
FOR THE MOST PART..THE LATEST GFS AND NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
TAKING THE NRN OLD MEXICO H5 SYS EWD INTO TX LTR SUN AND INTO PTNS
OF THE WRN GULF CST/LWR MS VLY SUN NGT. VRY HI MSTR OVR THE WRN
GULF OF MEX WL BE PULLED NWD INTO THE WRN GULF CST STATES REGION
AHD OF THIS H5 TROF..WHILE VRY WK SFC LOW PRES MAY ALSO DVLP OVR
THE WRN GULF AND MOV NNEWD TWDS THE UPR TX/SWRN LA CSTS LTR SUN
AFTN AND NGT. COMBO OF THIS INCREASING MSTR AND IMPROVING LRG
SCALE LIFT REGIME SHLD SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN SHWRS/TSTMS FM ERN
TX INTO SRN LA..ESP LTR SUN AFTN AND NGT. PREFERRED THE GFS QPF
SOLN OVR THE NAM..AS IT HAD MORE SUPPORT FM THE CANADIAN GEM AND
ECMWF HIRES MDLS. SOME 1-2 INCH RNFL AMTS PSBL ALG THE IMMEDIATE
UPR TX AND SRN LA CSTS..WITH EVEN HVIER RNFL JUST BEYOND THIS PD
AS IDA APCHS.
..ELSEWHERE
SOME LGT RAIN IS XPCD IN INITIAL LOW LVL WAA REGIME ACRS THE UPR
MS VLY/NRN GTLKS..AND THEN LTR IN THE PD ALG CDFNT DROPPING THRU
THIS REGION..WITH RNFL AMTS GENLY BLO 0.25 INCHES. STG MOIST ELY
FLO ARND ATLC HIGH WL CONT TO TRIGGER SCTTD SHWRS PRIMARILY ACRS
THE FL KEYS.
DAYS 2/3...
..NORTHWEST
A SERIES OF SHRTWVS EMANATING FROM A DEEPENING ERN PAC TROF WILL
IMPACT THE PAC NW DURING THE PD...WITH A STRONG CDFNT SWEEPING
THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY...AND ANOTHER WEAKER CDFNT ON
TUESDAY. PERSISTENT WLY FLOW AND UNSTABLE AMS WILL FOSTER A LONG
DURATION OF SHWRS AIDED BY OROGRAPHY. WHILE THE DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL BE DIRECTED NEWD INTO VANCOUVER ISL AND THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
MAINLAND...THERE WILL BE A PD OF MDT RAINFALL BEHIND THE MAIN
CDFNT...MAINLY IN THE OR/WA COASTAL RANGES AND CASCADES. HPC
FAVORED A SOLUTION CLOSE TO THE ECMWF HERE...ALTHOUGH MOST MODELS
CONTINUED TO BE AGREEABLE...SAVE THE SLOWER NAM.
..CENTRAL PLAINS/GREAT LAKES
A WEAK SHRTWV TROF MOVING ACROSS THE UPR MIDWEST/CAN BORDER ON
MONDAY WILL DRIVE A SFC LOW ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...AND AN
ATTENDANT CDFNT THROUGH THE PLAINS. INITIALLY...THE SYSTEM WILL
HAVE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE AT ITS DISPOSAL...BUT LIGHT PRECIP
SHOULD DEVELOP/INCREASE ALONG THE CDFNT AS IT SWEEPS ACRS THE MID
MS VLY AND CTRL PLAINS ON DAY 2 ACCOUNTING FOR UP TO A HALF INCH.
BY DAY 3...AN AMPLIFICATION IN THE TROF ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ALONG THE BNDRY AS IT MOVES INTO THE LWR
LAKES/NORTHEAST...COULD RESULT IN SOME 0.50-0.75 AMTS. NAM SHOWS
LESS PHASING HERE BETWEEN THE NRN/SRN STREAMS AND IN TURN IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS. ITS SOLUTION WAS DISCOUNTED
IN FAVOR OF THE ECMWF/GEFS.
..GULF COAST TO THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES
QPF HERE PROVED VERY DIFFICULT AS AN UPR LOW APPROACHES THE WRN
GOMEX...ALONG WITH SCATTERED VORT ENERGY IN THE FLOW. HVY
RAINFALL WILL RESULT FROM THESE FEATURES ALONE...LET ALONE IDA
WHICH WILL UNDERGO COMPLEX INTERACTION WITH THE SRN STREAM. EACH
00Z MODEL HAD WILDLY DIFFERENT QPF...ALTHOUGH OFFICIAL NHC TRACK
WAS USED TO GENERATE CORE QPF PLACEMENT. 00Z HWRF APPROXIMATED
THIS TRACK AND IT WAS USED PRIMARILY FOR IDA QPF ALONG THE GULF
COAST AND ERN CONUS. HPC DID SPREAD QPF WESTWARD DUE TO THE OTHER
MECHANISMS OF RAINFALL MENTIONED ABOVE. HPC INDICATED 6 INCHES OF
24 HR RAINFALL IN THE CNTRL GULF COAST DAY 2...AND SEVERAL INCHES
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST ON DAY 3 AS THE SYSTEM ACCELERATES NEWD.
NAM WAS THE NOTABLE OUTLIER KEEPING THE MSTR IN THE SOUTH...WHILE
THE GFS MARKED THE OTHER EXTREME OF SWEEPING THE SYSTEM INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC BY DAY 3.
TERRY/SOWKO
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
24HR QP VT 09/12Z
0.01 525256 519244 514231 511223 508218 504212 503210 503206
504201 506201 512203 522211 525213 529216 532214 532208
532202 531194 529186 527177 521165 517160 511157 503150
495139 492135 486130 481126 477125 474125 469128 469133
482150 479151 476147 472146 469143 466141 462143 460150
461158 463165 466170 479190 479196 478199 474202 469205
464207 444215 444232 438234 433237 429239 427243 426250
430256 433258 438257 446253 453252 456253 464264 469275
477286 486295 494299 498300 501299 511294
0.01 497878 497827 491802 484795 476794 469801 460817 453837
452841 449846 448852 447861 446865 446870 447877 451880
455880 462875 468872 472872 474876 473881 472885 469896
463916 455929 449939 445949 446959 452967 460968 465968
468976 469987 471995 479991 484956 487926 493897 497878
0.01 396971 397963 396956 391953 388953 385954 382956 380959
375964 368972 363980 361984 362987 363990 366992 372992
381992 386986 391979 395975 396971
0.01 398057 398056 395055 392055 389056 388057 387059 385061
387063 389064 392063 395062 396061 398058 398057
0.01 314917 315913 314909 311902 309898 306895 299888 291878
287869 284864 281860 272854 265851 260844 259841 254828
250818 247807 245800 242794 238794 236797 233801 232807
232816 232828 233834 236840 240844 244845 247850 249856
250868 252881 260905 262913 261916 258917 250923 245930
242935 242939 242947 242954 246965 252975 258981 274991
279993 286993 290993 296995 299995 303993 306988 307984
307977 304965 303957 303953 312936 315924 314917
0.01 285022 284018 281016 277016 273018 270021 268025 265029
264032 266037 269039 273038 277035 279032 282029 284025
285022
0.25 517278 519272 520266 520259 517250 514243 509231 502218
498212 495211 492212 487214 485218 486223 488231 486233
482233 478232 475231 470233 467231 466228 469219 470218
468216 461215 456216 453217 451221 457228 456232 454232
449234 443237 441239 439243 442246 446246 450246 458245
462246 467248 473254 480264 488274 498285 501287 505288
509287 514283 517278
0.25 486165 485160 484160 482158 479157 476157 473156 470158
472163 475164 478166 481167 484167 486165
0.25 307929 308921 307914 306907 302901 296896 291894 286893
282896 280901 278910 275914 272918 265925 259932 254940
253944 253951 255957 257961 264967 272973 279977 289980
293981 295981 297979 297974 294970 292966 291960 292955
296951 302944 306936 307929
0.25 248831 248825 247820 245814 243809 239804 236808 236811
236817 237823 238826 239829 242834 245836 247835 248831
0.50 516267 516260 514252 508238 501224 498219 493221 492228
494235 494240 492240 488238 484241 476237 474238 473243
476251 484262 491272 496278 501282 507282 511277 515271
516267
0.50 459241 460237 458235 455235 452236 449237 447237 445240
444240 445241 448242 451242 454242 457242 459241
0.50 305929 305920 303910 300905 295903 291904 287908 282915
279919 275923 271927 266934 260945 258951 259954 264959
270961 275964 279967 284968 285965 285956 288952 293948
299944 303938 305929
0.50 246823 245820 244817 243815 242812 242811 240810 238810
238814 238817 238820 239823 239825 241828 242828 244830
245831 246829 246826 246823
1.00 500275 503271 502266 500261 497255 494250 492247 489244
486244 483247 480248 482252 485256 487260 492266 494270
499274 500275
1.00 505244 505243 503238 502238 500236 499232 498228 496227
495226 495227 496231 497235 499237 499238 502239 504244
505244 505244
1.00 300937 301932 301927 300922 298918 294916 288918 284922
279927 275933 273939 275943 277945 285945 293943 298940
300937
1.50 497264 496261 495259 493257 491253 491252 491255 491257
493260 494263 495264 497264
1.50 298934 299931 298928 297925 295922 292921 289922 287924
286924 284927 283928 282930 281931 280935 281937 281938
284939 287940 289939 292939 295939 296938 297937 298934
2.00 294935 294932 294929 293926 293925 292926 290928 289930
289933 291935 294935 294935
24HR QP VT 10/12Z
0.01 497716 479680 479675 476669 470668 466671 461676 460682
456703 451723 444741 439750 437758 433767 430775 427781
425783 421793 417801 415812 412829 410837 405845 401853
397861 391878 385894 379908 374917 372925 366943 362952
358956 353962 350970 348979 345987 344994 346998 350001
355002 360004 363012 367014 372013 378009 388994 399981
404973 407966 414952 419942 421933 425925 429913 434899
437889 439880 440873 443870 448869 451867 455862 461855
466848 469846 473841 482826 491806 498786 501775 501766
499751 500738 498723 497716
0.01 526252 522242 518234 510216 507211 506207 508206 511208
515214 518219 523221 529224 531224 535221 538216 538208
537195 530175 527167 517162 510158 505152 497149 493145
492140 489136 486134 482139 480140 480143 484145 485148
490151 492153 487157 480151 472149 468147 463148 461151
459156 452157 447152 444150 441149 438149 437154 438159
440162 444165 446168 448175 444181 441184 440188 441198
445203 449199 461186 467181 468179 471181 479184 483191
482196 477197 471200 466205 462203 459200 455208 453209
449209 442211 437211 434213 429211 423215 419221 418218
416214 411214 408216 401220 401223 397227 389229 387234
386239 385245 387250 389254 396258 403261 420263 424271
427274 429277 436282 446287 451288 456288 464286 476286
484286 494289 511293
0.01 416068 417062 415060 409055 407051 407045 410038 412034
412029 411026 409025 406026 404030 402038 401042 398045
392047 389049 389053 390061 388061 386065 387067 387071
386073 388076 389083 394079 395076 398079 402076 403072
404072 407075 411075 415072 416068
0.01 361817 359810 354802 348801 341800 330790 317792 310790
306788 299785 296785 292787 290793 289801 289804 286803
282799 277796 270794 263795 257796 252799 248802 247805
250810 256811 270807 283811 286813 286816 285821 281824
277824 271824 261827 254832 250838 249844 248853 249865
251872 255879 255897 255903 256914 260926 261931 261936
259941 253953 251960 252969 253973 258978 270982 279981
286978 291974 297968 303958 310947 320936 325930 330925
335920 338915 352890 355882 357874 357865 357859 358852
360847 363838 364832 362823 361817
0.25 532209 533200 532193 527182 524177 519174 513174 507170
504174 501176 499172 490167 487167 484169 484174 486177
489180 493180 498180 501182 508191 516200 521209 527213
532209
0.25 516272 519267 520261 519249 515241 512233 506219 498204
495203 487203 483202 480203 475207 470210 467211 463210
459210 456212 452214 449216 447219 444228 432230 427232
419232 412233 409237 404240 403243 405245 410250 415251
426255 439258 445261 447265 451267 466273 474275 481275
488278 494277 501279 508278 514275 516272
0.25 487758 486754 485753 482752 481752 480756 480758 479763
479765 479768 480772 481773 484772 485769 486766 487763
487760 487758
0.25 428868 427858 426854 423851 419855 417860 406884 401898
397910 394923 395932 392937 389942 384946 380950 378956
374968 373972 374977 376985 378986 381986 386982 393974
397969 399962 402956 404950 408937 411925 415912 420899
424886 427873 428868
0.25 349841 348838 345837 337836 335834 332829 331824 329822
320824 313824 304827 297830 288834 284837 280839 277840
274844 274851 275856 275858 272866 271880 271888 272898
273914 276934 278941 282947 288949 295946 301942 306937
311932 315926 319920 322913 330885 335879 339872 345860
347855 349848 349841
0.50 529204 529199 528196 527193 526191 525188 523186 520186
520187 520191 522197 522198 524202 525203 527207 529204
0.50 514267 516262 516257 515248 510236 505223 503217 500212
497210 494210 490210 487208 484206 480207 476211 473215
468217 461215 458215 453219 455226 455230 453232 449234
443236 438238 434239 428237 416235 415238 415242 418244
430248 434248 440251 450257 462263 472269 485273 495275
506274 511270 514267
0.50 420875 421871 419870 418872 418876 420876 420875
0.50 341854 331852 328849 324843 321839 316836 306833 302833
295836 291840 289845 289850 288856 283865 278888 277901
278913 279921 282928 284933 289935 297934 303930 307927
314917 318907 322898 326887 332878 336873 338867 341859
341854
1.00 512256 507240 503231 502222 500218 496216 493216 490219
489220 491225 494233 497241 499245 498249 489244 485244
481241 479234 475233 473236 471238 469238 467236 465234
463234 461238 465242 469242 475247 482252 487260 492264
496266 500265 505260 510258 512256
1.00 336867 324860 320851 317849 313848 308850 306854 298858
292863 288869 284883 282892 282900 283910 286918 288923
291924 296924 300922 310910 317896 320889 324882 333871
336867
1.50 326873 319859 318856 314855 310856 307858 295867 290871
289878 286889 285899 285905 287912 291919 293920 297919
300914 308903 315892 318886 321882 326873
2.00 322875 319867 316860 311859 305862 295869 292873 292878
288889 287895 287901 289909 293913 297913 300908 306899
310895 312891 318881 322875
3.00 317873 314866 312864 308864 300867 296872 295879 294886
293893 299895 305893 309889 313883 317876 317873
4.00 314874 313871 312869 312868 309867 306867 303868 301870
299872 299873 297876 297879 297882 297885 299888 300889
303889 305887 305886 307884 310883 311882 312880 313877
314874 314874
5.00 311875 311871 310870 309869 307868 304870 303871 303874
304877 306880 309879 311875 311875
24HR QP VT 11/12Z
0.01 479670 476663 473659 470660 467664 463666 463670 456696
454703 451710 446691 443682 437673 432671 425676 419686
415693 412696 402707 391716 360736 353740 346745 337753
320768 303786 298789 291788 279790 271792 267796 258799
252801 249803 246808 248813 252824 255831 260833 267841
272847 273855 273883 273890 274897 275905 277911 282914
285915 289916 292915 299913 317908 324905 329901 337891
344882 357866 363857 366851 368845 373831 375825 377821
380818 394814 400812 407809 408813 407819 405825 402831
397842 395855 393873 392882 392888 392891 389903 384917
373936 370942 368947 371953 376956 384955 388954 389952
393949 395946 398940 410918 418895 421892 422887 423882
424866 430833 432824 434816 435810 436802 438791 442777
448767 454754 455751 458747 461739 466733 471725 478710
479703 479695 480690 479686 480680 479670
0.01 535206 534195 532185 529174 525164 521163 519158 517154
514152 511151 507146 504143 497140 484130 478129 476131
472132 471137 474141 477142 480142 483146 486151 490152
488153 480152 475153 471150 468145 465140 464141 459143
458147 453147 450143 443147 438153 440159 443162 445166
446174 450185 452192 459186 462179 460169 463166 464167
466170 472170 483180 488184 491188 493194 488197 483197
479199 472199 468205 463205 460203 455209 451212 447212
443213 439215 434218 433221 435224 440225 445226 449225
454227 453230 450230 445229 443231 436236 433238 427236
421234 416235 414238 414244 416248 419252 427255 432257
436257 439255 442254 445253 450253 457253 468255 479261
483263 485268 492281 496291 502295 505295 508293 512287
515280 519270 521264 520258 518249 516239 514228 513223
510219 503210 503205 507205 520217 529213 533210 535206
0.01 475920 474916 472912 467907 461905 453909 447913 442920
441923 441930 443935 445937 451942 455941 457938 462932
470926 475920 475920
0.01 414759 412753 408751 405750 399753 395757 393762 390764
389768 386770 385779 386790 389801 393803 398801 403793
407784 411773 413764 414759
0.25 511261 513254 512250 510236 507226 502217 498209 495206
489205 482205 478208 474211 469216 460218 457221 459227
458231 455233 449234 444236 442240 443243 448245 459247
465247 471248 476251 482256 489262 495268 500273 503276
505276 507272 509265 511261
0.25 520191 520187 517181 513175 510170 507168 502166 497167
493171 495176 498181 503185 509187 513190 517193 520191
0.25 441715 437707 435705 430706 426712 424723 423740 423758
421773 420780 420786 422792 424804 430788 435772 440756
441748 442740 443731 442719 441715
0.25 417848 414848 414849 412854 413858 413859 416857 416856
417852 417849 417848
0.25 381761 380756 377751 370749 361749 352751 338763 327778
323784 317790 306797 296801 289802 281805 272811 270812
271814 272817 270819 271827 273830 278830 281829 286831
292835 297843 300851 300856 301862 300871 303882 308887
312888 318888 323886 326884 338873 344867 351858 358845
366826 371812 373807 373801 372790 372782 373777 375774
379766 381761
0.50 506249 507243 505238 504229 502223 500219 498216 494212
486212 481212 479214 480217 483224 485229 484232 482232
479230 474231 471232 467233 464233 461235 454239 448237
449240 454240 468244 482250 489256 495263 499263 499259
498253 501250 506249
0.50 436728 436723 435720 432718 430722 429723 428727 428729
428733 428735 428738 428742 429745 431749 433751 433747
434743 434742 434738 435736 435732 436730 436728
0.50 432761 431757 429758 428762 427764 428767 430769 430766
431764 432761
0.50 373766 372761 370758 364755 356756 352757 350759 339769
329783 322789 311801 300811 291815 286817 284819 281825
287826 294831 301834 305836 307845 310858 311865 313874
317879 320880 325878 331874 340865 346859 351851 357838
363824 367817 369810 366789 366783 368776 372769 373766
1.00 497232 497230 497227 495224 494226 495228 497232 497232
1.00 361772 360769 357766 352767 348768 344771 341775 336779
333783 325794 319802 315813 309822 308825 309829 314833
317836 317842 316856 316861 317867 322871 326870 335864
342854 348845 354835 359825 361819 363813 358807 358792
358781 361772
1.50 354776 353773 350772 347772 342776 338780 333787 327795
323802 325815 322823 321827 321834 320854 319862 321865
326866 331862 333859 338852 348835 352828 355824 355820
353817 350815 345814 349808 352800 353791 353781 354776
2.00 349778 347776 343777 339780 337784 332792 326800 325804
328809 329812 329817 328826 324836 323843 322849 322854
324859 328861 332854 342837 347831 349826 347822 342824
339826 338824 337813 349798 350793 350789 348782 349778
3.00 343792 343789 340788 338791 336795 339798 340798 340797
342795 343792
3.00 331848 330844 329844 327845 326846 327847 330848 331848
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