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FXUS05 KWBC 161231
PMD90D
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD SEASONAL OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
830 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2026
SUMMARY OF THE OUTLOOK FOR NON-TECHNICAL USERS
EL NINO HAS STRENGTHENED OVER THE PAST MONTH AND IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY
THROUGH 2026 AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY 2027. THERE IS AN 81% CHANCE THAT THIS
EVENT WILL BE VERY STRONG DURING OCTOBER-DECEMBER (OND) 2026.
THE AUGUST-SEPTEMBER-OCTOBER (ASO) 2026 TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES (CONUS) AND ALASKA. A
BROAD AREA OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES COVERS THE WEST, SOUTH, AND EAST, WITH
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHWEST,
SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS, AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST. OVER ALASKA, ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER MUCH OF THE STATE, EXCEPT FOR THE WEST AND NORTH
COASTS, WHICH ARE DEPICTED AS HAVING EQUAL-CHANCES OF ABOVE-, NEAR-, AND
BELOW-NORMAL (EC) TEMPERATURES. AN AREA OF EC IS ALSO INDICATED OVER THE
NORTH-CENTRAL US EXTENDING TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE ASO PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK INDICATES ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE
SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS, AND
INTO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO INDICATED
FOR PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI, WESTERN OHIO, AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND
WESTERN ALASKA. PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE GENERALLY LOW AND DO NOT EXCEED
33 TO 40% CHANCES, EXCEPT OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, NEVADA, UTAH, AND
WESTERN ARIZONA WHICH REACH 40 TO 50% CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED FOR PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST,
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND PARTS OF THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES.
BASIS AND SUMMARY OF THE CURRENT LONG-LEAD OUTLOOKS
NOTE: FOR GRAPHICAL DISPLAYS OF THE FORECAST TOOLS DISCUSSED BELOW SEE:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/90DAY/TOOLS/BRIEFING
CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS
THE EL NINO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) ALERT SYSTEM STATUS IS AN EL NINO
ADVISORY, MEANING EL NINO IS PRESENT, EQUATORIAL SSTS ARE ABOVE-AVERAGE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN, AND ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION ANOMALIES
OVER THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN ARE CONSISTENT WITH EL NINO. ABOVE-AVERAGE
SST ANOMALIES EMERGED IN THE FAR EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC IN EARLY FEBRUARY
2026, AND HAVE INCREASED ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
SINCE MID-APRIL 2026. THE LATEST WEEKLY SST DEPARTURES IN THE NINO 1+2 REGION
REACHED +2.6 DEG C ABOVE-AVERAGE. NINO3 SSTS REACHED +1.7 DEG C AND NINO 3.4
+1.3 DEG C ABOVE-AVERAGE. THE ATMOSPHERE IS RESPONDING AS TYPICAL FOR EL NINO,
WITH SUPPRESSED CONVECTION OVER INDONESIA AND ENHANCED CONVECTION OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL PACIFIC.
ABOVE-AVERAGE SST ANOMALIES HAVE PERSISTED NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA, BUT HAVE WEAKENED IN MORE RECENT OBSERVATIONS. THESE ABOVE-AVERAGE
SSTS CONTRAST WITH WEAK BELOW-AVERAGE SSTS OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA, OREGON, AND WASHINGTON. DURING EARLY TO MID-JUNE BELOW-AVERAGE OR
ONLY WEAKLY ABOVE-AVERAGE SSTS WERE FOUND IN THE GULF AND ALONG PARTS OF THE
EAST COAST, BUT ABOVE-AVERAGE SST ANOMALIES BEGAN TO DOMINATE IN EARLY JULY AND
HAVE STRENGTHENED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND AROUND FLORIDA, AND ALONG PARTS
OF THE EAST COAST. PERSISTENT BELOW-AVERAGE SSTS SURROUND MUCH OF ALASKA, WITH
ANOMALOUS SEA-ICE COVERAGE OFF THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE. PERSISTENT
COASTAL SST ANOMALIES AS WELL AS SEA ICE, WHERE APPLICABLE, MAY INFLUENCE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES OF ADJACENT AREAS.
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF SST FORECASTS
THE NORTH AMERICAN MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (NMME) FAVORS INTENSIFICATION OF EL
NINO THROUGH THE END OF 2026, AND THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT EL NINO WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY 2027. MOST MODELS FAVOR A PEAK IN RELATIVE SST ANOMALIES IN
THE NINO3.4 REGION THIS FALL. THE COPERNICUS CLIMATE CHANGE SERVICE (C3S) MME
IS SIMILAR IN ITS PREDICTION OF THE NINO3.4 ANOMALY, ADDING CONFIDENCE TO THIS
FORECAST. THE SST CONSOLIDATION FORECAST FOR THE RELATIVE NINO3.4 REGION
INCREASES UNTIL FALL AND WINTER, WITH THE CONSOLIDATION REACHING JUST UNDER
+2.5 DEG C ABOVE-AVERAGE. THE CHANCES OF A VERY STRONG EVENT ARE 81% IN
OCTOBER-NOVEMBER-DECEMBER (OND) 2026, AND DROP TO 75% IN
NOVEMBER-DECEMBER-JANUARY (NDJ) 2026-2027, AND DECREASE THEREAFTER.
PROGNOSTIC TOOLS USED FOR U.S. TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS
DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS FROM THE NMME, THE CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM VERSION 2
(CFSV2), AND THE C3S MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE SYSTEM ARE USED EXTENSIVELY FOR THE
FIRST SIX LEADS WHEN THEY ARE AVAILABLE. THE OBJECTIVE, HISTORICAL SKILL
WEIGHTED CONSOLIDATION AND CALIBRATION, BRIDGING, AND MERGING (CBAM) GUIDANCE,
THAT COMBINES BOTH DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL FORECAST INFORMATION IS ALSO USED.
A CONSOLIDATION OF DYNAMICAL MODELS AND STATISTICAL TOOLS, INCLUDING THE
ENSO-OCN TOOL, IS USED FOR THE FIRST SIX LEADS. THIS TOOL REPRESENTS THE
COMBINED INFLUENCE OF ENSO (WHEN ACTIVE) AND DECADAL TIMESCALE TRENDS IN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION UTILIZING THE OPTIMUM CLIMATE NORMAL (OCN). WHEN
APPROPRIATE, CANONICAL IMPACTS OF EL NINO BASED ON COMPOSITE AND REGRESSION
ANALYSIS FROM HISTORICAL EL NINO EVENTS ARE CONSIDERED, INCLUDING
STRATIFICATION INTO STRONG OR VERY STRONG EVENTS. LOCAL SST ANOMALIES, SEA ICE,
AND SOIL MOISTURE ARE ALSO CONSIDERED FOR EARLY LEADS WHEN APPROPRIATE.
FOLLOWING LEAD 6, THE ENSO-OCN FORECAST TOOL IS USED MORE EXTENSIVELY. DECADAL
VARIABILITY AND TRENDS ARE DETERMINED FROM THE OCN, REPRESENTING THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE MOST RECENT 15-YEAR PERIOD AVERAGE SEASONAL TEMPERATURE OR
PRECIPITATION AND THE AVERAGE FOR THE CLIMATOLOGY PERIOD, FROM 1991-2020.
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF OUTLOOKS - ASO 2026 TO ASO 2027
TEMPERATURE
THE ASO 2026 TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF
ALASKA, AND THE WESTERN, SOUTHERN, AND EASTERN CONUS. A GRADIENT OF
ABOVE-NORMAL PROBABILITIES COVERS MUCH OF MAINLAND ALASKA, TRANSITIONING FROM
33 TO 40% CHANCES TO 50 TO 60% CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND AND
SOUTHEAST. EC IS INDICATED OVER THE ALEUTIANS, AND THE WEST AND NORTH COASTS.
THE ABOVE-NORMAL PROBABILITIES ARE SUPPORTED BY DYNAMICAL MODELS INCLUDING THE
NMME AND C3S, ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURE TRENDS, AND THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF EL
NINO (THOUGH WE EXPECT THESE IMPACTS TO BE WEAK OVER ALASKA DURING THIS
SEASON). THE AREA OF EC IS DUE TO THE POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE INFLUENCE FROM
PERSISTENT BELOW-AVERAGE LOCAL SSTS AND ANOMALOUSLY HIGH SEA ICE COVERAGE TO
THE NORTH. OVER THE CONUS, STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT SUPPORTS ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEST. THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN MODELS, AND THUS
PROBABILITIES (REACHING 50 TO 60% CHANCES), IS OVER THE NORTHWEST.
PROBABILITIES DIMINISH, BUT REMAIN ABOVE-NORMAL, OVER THE SOUTHWEST WHERE
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION MAY MODERATE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY. ABOVE-AVERAGE
DECADAL TRENDS ARE ALSO HIGH OVER THE WEST, FURTHER SUPPORTING THE TILT TOWARD
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANOMALOUSLY LOW SOIL MOISTURE PARTIALLY ADDS TO THE
TILT TOWARD ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. A SECOND MAXIMA OF ABOVE-NORMAL
PROBABILITIES IS DEPICTED OVER SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS, OWING TO CONSISTENCY AMONGST
DYNAMICAL MODELS INCLUDING NMME, C3S, CBAM, AND PROBABILITY ANOMALY CORRELATION
(PAC) CALIBRATED VERSIONS OF THESE MODELS. SIMILAR REASONING, ALONG WITH
ABOVE-AVERAGE LOCAL SSTS IN THE GULF AND AROUND FLORIDA, SUPPORTS THE INCREASED
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST.
ALTHOUGH THE NMME AND C3S BOTH SHOW STRONGER PROBABILITIES OVER THE CAROLINAS,
STATISTICAL TOOLS INDICATE LOWER PROBABILITIES OVER THAT AREA DUE TO WEAKER
TRENDS AND WEAKER IMPACTS FROM EL NINO. CONSEQUENTLY, PROBABILITIES OVER THE
CAROLINAS UP TO NEW ENGLAND ARE DEPICTED AS 40 TO 50% CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THE AREA OF EC THAT COVERS THE NORTHERN PLAINS, UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, UPPER GREAT LAKES, CENTRAL PLAINS, AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS DUE
TO POTENTIAL FOR MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES FROM EL NINO AND WEAKER
PROBABILITIES IN THIS REGION IN NMME AND C3S.
THIS TEMPERATURE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH SEPTEMBER-OCTOBER-NOVEMBER (SON)
2026 BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A PATTERN THAT IS MORE DOMINATED BY ABOVE-NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OVER THE WEST, NORTH, AND EAST RATHER THAN THE SOUTHERN TIER, BY
WINTER 2026. TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE-NORMAL OVER ALASKA THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD,
THOUGH WITH LOWER PROBABILITIES TO THE NORTH GIVEN THE COLD SSTS AND
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH SEA ICE. OVERALL, THESE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
SUPPORTED BY DYNAMICAL MODELS AND TRENDS, AS WELL INDICATING THE TRANSITION OF
THE TEMPERATURES TO A MORE EL NINO-LIKE TELECONNECTION PATTERN. BEGINNING IN
OND 2026, AN AREA OF EC IS DEPICTED OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS, WHICH INCREASES TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS (EXCEPTING THE WEST)
BY NDJ 2026-2027. THIS SHIFT IN THE PATTERN IS REFLECTIVE OF THE EL NINO, WHICH
IS CHARACTERIZED BY A WARMER NORTHERN TIER AND MILDER TEMPERATURES TO THE
SOUTH. 33 TO 40% CHANCES OF NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED OVER PARTS
OF THE SOUTHWEST IN NDJ 2026-2027 AND DECEMBER-JANUARY-FEBRUARY (DJF)
2026-2027, AND OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN DJF
2026-2027. WHILE EL NINO CAN LEAD TO PERIODS OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER
THE SOUTHERN TIER, THIS IS OFTEN OFFSET BY ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURE TRENDS,
PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE, NEAR-NORMAL IS FAVORED RATHER THAN
AN AREA OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED OVER THE WESTERN AND EASTERN CONUS AND
ALASKA IN FEBRUARY-MARCH-APRIL (FMA), WITH AN AREA OF EC ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS. EL NINO IMPACTS CAN TYPICALLY BE SEEN THROUGH AT LEAST FMA, AND THIS
OUTLOOK MAINLY INCORPORATES THE POTENTIAL INFLUENCE OF EL NINO, WHICH CAN
MODERATE TEMPERATURES OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS, AND ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURE
TRENDS OVER THE WEST AND EAST. SPRING GENERALLY MARKS THE BEGINNING OF A LESS
PREDICTABLE TIME OF YEAR, AND TRENDS BECOME THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF THESE
OUTLOOKS DURING LATE SPRING, SUMMER, AND EARLY FALL 2027. ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY INCREASE IN SPATIAL COVERAGE OVER THE CONUS FROM SPRING
TO EARLY FALL 2027. MEANWHILE, EC IS FAVORED OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN ALASKA,
WITH ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED ELSEWHERE, BEFORE SHIFTING BACK TO FULL
COVERAGE OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY ASO 2027.
PRECIPITATION
THE ASO 2026 PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF MAINLAND ALASKA AND PARTS OF THE ALEUTIANS, AND TRANSITIONS TO
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA. OVER THE CONUS, BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, PARTS OF THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES, AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED
OVER THE SOUTHWEST STRETCHING TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS, AS WELL AS OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI, WESTERN OHIO, AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS. THIS PATTERN IS GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH EL NINO (THOUGH
TELECONNECTIONS ARE WEAKER THAN IN WINTER MONTHS), DECADAL TRENDS IN
PRECIPITATION, AND DYNAMICAL MODELS. THE NMME AND C3S FORECAST GENERALLY
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS. HOWEVER, GIVEN BELOW-AVERAGE
DECADAL TRENDS, WE HAVE MODERATED THESE PROBABILITIES TO EC OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. PROBABILITIES ARE TILTED TOWARD
BELOW-NORMAL OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, REFLECTING
STRONG BELOW-AVERAGE DECADAL TRENDS AND A SUPPORTING BELOW-NORMAL SIGNAL FROM
EL NINO.
EL NINO TELECONNECTIONS RAMP UP THROUGH THE FALL 2026 AND WINTER 2026-2027, AND
THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN OVER THE CONUS BECOMES MORE EL NINO-LIKE AS THE
OUTLOOKS PROGRESS. OVER THE CONUS, BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION STRETCHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL PLAINS BY NDJ 2026-2027, BEFORE SHIFTING TO TWO
CENTERS OF PROBABILITIES OVER THE NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL CONUS AND GREAT LAKES
THROUGH ABOUT MARCH-APRIL-MAY (MAM) 2026-2027. BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER
THESE REGIONS IS JUXTAPOSED WITH ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTHERN
TIER, WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST IN WINTER
2026-2027 WHEN TELECONNECTIONS ARE STRONGEST. TYPICALLY, WE MAY SEE
BELOW-AVERAGE PRECIPITATION DIPPING FURTHER TOWARD THE GULF STATES DURING AN EL
NINO, HOWEVER, THIS IS MORE UNCERTAIN IN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE. IN
ADDITION, DECADAL TRENDS TILT ABOVE-AVERAGE FOR THIS REGION, AND THUS EC IS
FAVORED. THROUGH FALL INTO SPRING, ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER ALASKA
SHIFTS FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST, AND A WEAK PROBABILITY OF BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS DEPICTED OVER THE CENTRAL PARTS OF THE WEST DURING THE WINTER
SEASONS, CONSISTENT WITH EL NINO IMPACTS. FOR SEASONS PAST MAM 2026, THE
INFLUENCE FROM DECADAL TRENDS IS INCREASINGLY RELIED UPON TO CREATE THESE
OUTLOOKS.
FORECASTER: JOHNNA INFANTI
THE CLIMATIC NORMALS ARE BASED ON CONDITIONS BETWEEN 1991 AND 2020, FOLLOWING
THE WORLD METEROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION CONVENTION OF USING THE MOST RECENT 3
COMPLETE DECADES AS THE CLIMATIC REFERENCE PERIOD. THE PROBABILITY ANOMALIES
FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION BASED ON THESE NEW NORMALS BETTER REPRESENT
SHORTER TERM CLIMATIC ANOMALIES THAN THE FORECASTS BASED ON OLDER NORMALS.
FOR A DESCRIPTION OF OF THE STANDARD FORECAST TOOLS - THEIR SKILL- AND THE
FORECAST FORMAT PLEASE SEE OUR WEB PAGE AT
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/LONG_RANGE/TOOLS.HTML
(USE LOWER CASE LETTERS)
INFORMATION ON THE FORMATION OF SKILL OF THE CAS FORECASTS MAY BE FOUND AT:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/SOILMST_MONITORING/US/OUTLOOK/OUTLOOK.SHTM
L
(USE LOWERCASE LETTERS)
NOTES - THESE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR
VALID PERIOD. WITHIN ANY GIVEN VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORT AND MEDIUM
RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED.
THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT
MONTH ON AUG 20 2026
1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS WERE IMPLEMENTED EFFECTIVE WITH THE MAY 20, 2021
FORECAST RELEASE.
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