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FXUS06 KWBC 011930
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT WED APRIL 01 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 07 - 11 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE
AVERAGE LARGE-SCALE CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD, WITH RELATIVELY SMALL DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF
ANOMALIES. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS PREDICT A RIDGE AXIS TO THE
WEST OF MAINLAND ALASKA. ALL MODELS PREDICT POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES
ACROSS ALASKA, WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG AND OVER THE WEST
COAST OF CANADA TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A TROUGH AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED BY ALL ENSEMBLE MEANS OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, A RIDGE
PROGRESSES ACROSS THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES (CONUS) FROM THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL CONUS TO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. MODELS PREDICT A TROUGH AND NEGATIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD TO
QUICKLY DEAMPLIFY AND BE REPLACED BY THE RIDGE AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES. POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD ARE
GREATER OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IN THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN THAN THE GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS WEIGHTED MORE IN THE MANUAL
BLEND OF FORECASTS, DUE TO RECENT MODEL SKILL.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE ALEUTIANS AND MAINLAND
ALASKA, UNDER THE PREDICTED PERSISTENT RIDGE. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED FOR SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH
THE CONSOLIDATION OF CALIBRATED MODEL TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FROM THE PACIFIC COAST TO THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS,
EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF THE GREAT PLAINS, CENTRAL AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, OHIO VALLEY, AND TENNESSEE VALLEY, AS A RIDGE PROGRESSES
ACROSS THESE REGIONS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION, AND NORTHEAST CONSISTENT WITH THE
TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION AND THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LEVEL TROUGHING DURING THE
PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH MOST
DYNAMICAL MODEL TEMPERATURE TOOLS.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR MAINLAND ALASKA, WHILE BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA,
CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED FOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN AREAS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AS
A RIDGE PUSHES INLAND DURING THE PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED
FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS, INCLUDING THE SOUTHWEST, EASTERN GREAT BASIN,
FOUR CORNERS, HIGH PLAINS, GREAT PLAINS, MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION, DUE TO PREDICTED SOUTHERLY MOISTURE FLOW INTO THESE REGIONS AND
CONSISTENT WITH ECMWF CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FORECASTS. ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, CONSISTENT WITH THE
PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION. AS A RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE REGION, BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY FOR ALL OF HAWAII,
AHEAD OF A PREDICTED TROUGH.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MEANS ON THE LONGWAVE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN
FORECAST, OFFSET BY SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG MODEL TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TOOLS, PARTICULARLY FOR THE EASTERN CONUS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 09 - 15 2026
ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD FROM THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND
CANADIAN MODELS PREDICT A SIMILAR PATTERN TO THE 6-10 DAY FORECASTS, WITH SOME
EVOLUTION OF THEIR RESPECTIVE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION PATTERNS. A RIDGE AND
POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER ALASKA AND THE PACIFIC COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA DEAMPLIFY SLIGHTLY IN THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD, WHILE THE PREDICTED RIDGE
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AMPLIFIES AND PROGRESSES SLIGHTLY EASTWARD, RELATIVE TO
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD MODEL FORECASTS. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS
CONTINUE TO PREDICT A SECOND RIDGE AXIS TO THE WEST OF MAINLAND ALASKA. ALL
MODEL 8-14 DAY PERIOD FORECASTS PREDICT INCREASING POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS, WITH A RIDGE AND GREATER MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
ANOMALIES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN
PREDICTS GREATER MAGNITUDE POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE CONUS
THAN THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. A TROUGH AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES
CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN THE 8-14
DAY PERIOD.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE ALEUTIANS AND
NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA, UNDER THE PREDICTED PERSISTENT RIDGE. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND
NORTHERN SOUTHEAST ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH MOST RAW MODEL TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS IN THE
WEEK-2 PERIOD, UNDER PRIMARILY POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND CONSISTENT
WITH ECMWF MODEL TOOLS. PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL EXCEED 60 PERCENT FOR
MUCH OF CALIFORNIA INTO WESTERN NEVADA, CONSISTENT WITH MOST MODEL TEMPERATURE
TOOLS. THE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS CHANGES RAPIDLY FROM THE START OF THE
PERIOD, WITH RISING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS AND AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE REGION
LEADING TO RISING TEMPERATURES. LIKELY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXTEND FROM
THE PACIFIC COAST TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR THE NORTHERN CENTRAL CONUS, PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA, AND
NORTHERN MAINE, CONSISTENT WITH THE TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE LIKELY FOR HAWAII IN THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, CONSISTENT
WITH MOST MODEL TOOLS.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED ACROSS MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST
ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH MOST PRECIPITATION TOOLS AND THE PRECIPITATION
CONSOLIDATION. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR A LARGER AREA OF THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS IN THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD THAN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, AS A RIDGE
IS PREDICTED TO PUSH EASTWARD. SOUTHERLY MOISTURE FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE
LEADS TO ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR A LARGE
SWATH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS, INCLUDING THE SOUTHWEST, FOUR CORNERS, GREAT
PLAINS, MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, GREAT LAKES REGION, AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC
COASTAL STATES, UNDER A PREDICTED RIDGE. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION CONTINUES
TO BE LIKELY FOR HAWAII AHEAD OF THE PREDICTED TROUGH.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, WITH
GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN FORECAST, OFFSET BY UNCERTAINTY
AMONG THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
FORECASTER: D COLLINS
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
APRIL 16.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20150402 - 20030401 - 20040318 - 20210331 - 19890317
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20150402 - 20070317 - 20040318 - 20030401 - 20110413
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR APR 07 - 11 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA N A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA N A
NEBRASKA N A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA B A IOWA N A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN N A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN N A
INDIANA A N OHIO N N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A N NEW YORK B N
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N
MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B
PENN N B NEW JERSEY N B W VIRGINIA N B
MARYLAND N B DELAWARE N B VIRGINIA N B
N CAROLINA N B S CAROLINA N B GEORGIA N B
FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN N A AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL N B
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR APR 09 - 15 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA N N WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA N A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA N A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A N MAINE N A
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B
N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL N A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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