471
FXUS06 KWBC 081954
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
300 PM EDT TUE JUL 08 2008
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR JUL 14 - 18 2008
THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT TODAY ON THE
LARGE-SCALE FEATURES OF THE 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN DURING THE 6-10 DAY
FORECAST PERIOD. TROUGHS ARE DEPICTED OVER WESTERN ALASKA, ALONG THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST, AND OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. A RIDGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S.. IN GENERAL, THE OPERATIONAL RUNS DEPICT THE SAME GENERAL
FEATURES AS THE ENSEMBLE MEANS WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING THE 0Z GFS WHICH HAS
MORE RIDGING IN THE EASTERN U.S. RELATIVE TO THE OTHER SOLUTIONS. DUE TO
GENERALLY SUPERIOR SKILL DURING THE PAST 60 DAYS, THE ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE
ECMWF AND 6Z GFS WERE WEIGHTED MOST HEAVILY IN TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND.
THIS BLEND CHART DEPICTS WEAK ANOMALIES OVER THE CONUS WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
HEIGHTS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. BELOW
NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST FOR MOST OF ALASKA. THE RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. IS EXPECTED TO BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF
THE CENTER PART OF THE COUNTRY WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
FOR BOTH COASTS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF ALASKA
UNDERNEATH THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO BE LOCATED IN THE VICINITY. THIS
TROUGH IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BRING WETTER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS FOR THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE STATE. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST MONSOON REGION, THE NORTHERN PLAINS, AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS.
TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z
GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY
7...40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT
OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S
EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7.
MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN (TIED)
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 ON A SCALE OF 1
TO 5, DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS.
THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS
FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND, ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
SOLUTIONS, THE CDC REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOL, AND THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE
FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS).
THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET
SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND, THE NEW NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE
FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS) RAINFALL TOOL, AND THE CDC REFORECAST PRECIPITATION
TOOL.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 16 - 22 2008:
FOR WEEK 2 THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO DEPICT THE 500-HPA
RIDGE OVER THE CENTER OF THE CONUS WITH TROUGHS ALONG BOTH COASTS AND OVER
WESTERN ALASKA. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE RIDGE OVER
THE CENTER OF THE U.S. RELATIVE TO THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE GFS
SOLUTIONS WERE FAVORED TODAY IN TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND OVER THE CANADIAN
DUE TO SUPERIOR SKILL OVER THE LAST 60 DAYS. THIS BLEND CHART DEPICTS A LARGE
REGION OF NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH NEAR
TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS FORECAST FOR MOST OF ALASKA, THE U.S. WEST COAST, AND
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. IN GENERAL, THE WEEK TWO PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR SOMEWHAT
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. RELATIVE TO THE 6 TO 10
DAY PERIOD DUE TO AN EXPECTED STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS. ELSEWHERE THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FOR WEEK TWO ARE
RELATIVELY SIMILAR TO THAT INDICATED FOR THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD INCLUDING THE
CONTINUATION OF AN ACTIVE SOUTHWEST MONSOON.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 11.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 ON A SCALE OF 1
TO 5, DUE GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS.
THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS
FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND, ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
SOLUTIONS, THE CDC REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOL, AND THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE
FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS).
THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET
SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND, THE NEW NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE
FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS) RAINFALL TOOL, AND THE CDC REFORECAST PRECIPITATION
TOOL.
FORECASTER: HANDEL
NOTES:
OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE
CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE
STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS
ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS
CHANGE.
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE -
FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY
PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON
AWIPS.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JULY 17.
NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004:
THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE
TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE
DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE
CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19680709 - 19760722 - 19970618 - 19820709 - 19750722
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19680707 - 19710721 - 19970617 - 19820628 - 19980719
6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 14 - 18, 2008
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B N OREGON N B NRN CALIF B N
SRN CALIF B N IDAHO N B NEVADA N B
W MONTANA N B E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH N N ARIZONA B A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN N N
INDIANA A N OHIO N N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK N B
VERMONT N B NEW HAMP N B MAINE N B
MASS N B CONN N B RHODE IS N N
PENN N N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA N N
MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N N
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A
FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE B B
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 16 - 22, 2008
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N N OREGON N B NRN CALIF B B
SRN CALIF N B IDAHO A N NEVADA N N
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH N N ARIZONA N A COLORADO N A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA N A NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE N N
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS N N
PENN A N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA N N
MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N N
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A
FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN B N AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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