003
FXUS06 KWBC 272000
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS, MD
300 PM EST FRI NOVEMBER 27 2009
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 03 - 07 2009
TODAYS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED
500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA. THE ENSEMBLE MEANS DEPICT A
TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS WITH RIDGING INDICATED NEAR THE WEST
COAST. ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN. THE
OPERATIONAL 0Z AND 6Z GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER AND GENERALLY
REFLECT THE SAME FEATURES AS THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS. THE 12Z AND 00Z
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS HAVE WEAKER 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER MUCH
OF THE CONUS. THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CHART FEATURES NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
HEIGHTS FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS WHILE ABOVE AVERAGE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST IN PARTS
OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MOST OF THE CONUS IS FORECAST TO HAVE AN ENHANCED
LIKELIHOOD FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BASED PRIMARILY ON BELOW NORMAL
500-HPA HEIGHTS AS INDICATED BY THE MANUAL BLEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED FOR ALASKA UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
THE NORTHEAST AND THE GREAT LAKES ARE INDICATED BY THE NAEFS TEMPERATURE
FORECAST TOOL. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION EXIST FOR
THE EAST COAST BENEATH THE EASTERN CONUS FORECAST TROUGH AND ALSO FOR WESTERN
ALASKA DOWNSTREAM OF THE PACIFIC TROUGH. GREATER PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST FOR THE WEST COAST AND EASTERN ALASKA UNDERNEATH THE
FORECAST RIDGE. THE NAEFS PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOL ALSO SUGGESTS ABOVE
MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z
GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON
DAY 8...35 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...35
PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 10 PERCENT OF
TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8.
MODEL OF THE DAY: 00Z AND 06Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5,
DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLES BUT DIFFERENCES IN SOME
OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS.
THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS
FROM THE MANUAL BLEND AND VARIOUS MODEL HEIGHT FIELDS, AND NAEFS TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS.
THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG FROM THE MANUAL BLEND
AND VARIOUS MODEL HEIGHT FIELDS, NAEFS, THE CPC AUTO BLEND, AND INSPECTION OF
THE DAILY PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FROM THE AVAILABLE MODELS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 05 - 11 2009
THE EXPECTED 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS QUITE SIMILAR TO
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD AND SHOWS A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS, AND
AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE NEAR THE WEST COAST. TODAYS BLEND CHART IS SIMILAR TO THE
6-10 DAY PERIOD INDICATING NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS,
AND NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE HEIGHTS FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. GREATER CHANCES
FOR NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE CONUS
BENEATH THE TROUGH AND THE BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS, WHILE GREATER CHANCES
FOR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR MOST OF ALASKA AND PARTS OF
CALIFORNIA UNDERNEATH THE FORECAST RIDGE. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
NORTHEAST AND THE GREAT LAKES ARE INDICATED BY THE NAEFS TEMPERATURE FORECAST
TOOL. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST FOR
THE GULF COAST STATES, AND MOST OF THE EAST COAST UNDERNEATH THE FORECAST
TROUGH. GREATER PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST FOR
THE WEST COAST UNDERNEATH THE FORECAST RIDGE. THE NAEFS PRECIPITATION FORECAST
TOOL ALSO SUGGESTS ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE ROCKIES.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S
OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z
GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...35 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11...35 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 10
PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: AVERAGE, 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO
5, DUE TO FAIR AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS.
THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM
THE MANUAL BLEND AND VARIOUS MODEL HEIGHT FIELDS, KLEIN PROBABILITIES FROM THE
GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES, THE CPC AUTO BLEND, AND NAEFS TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.
THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE
MANUAL BLEND AND VARIOUS MODEL HEIGHT FIELDS, THE CPC AUTO BLEND, AND NAEFS
PRECIPITATION FORECASTS.
FORECASTER: LUKE HE
NOTES:
OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE
CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE
STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS
ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS
CHANGE.
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE -
FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY
PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON
AWIPS.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
DECEMBER 17
NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004:
THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS
PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE
MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE)
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19931130 - 19871128 - 19521118 - 20021118 - 20041210
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19871128 - 19931130 - 19971106 - 20021119 - 19521118
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR DEC 03 - 07 2009
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N B OREGON N B NRN CALIF N B
SRN CALIF B B IDAHO B B NEVADA B B
W MONTANA B N E MONTANA B A WYOMING B N
UTAH B B ARIZONA B B COLORADO B N
NEW MEXICO B N N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA B N
NEBRASKA B N KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA B N
N TEXAS B N S TEXAS B N W TEXAS B N
MINNESOTA N N IOWA N N MISSOURI B N
ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA N N OHIO N N KENTUCKY B A
TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA B A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A N
MASS A A CONN N A RHODE IS N A
PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA B A
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A
N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A
FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A B
AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL A N
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR DEC 05 - 11 2009
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N B OREGON N B NRN CALIF N B
SRN CALIF N B IDAHO B B NEVADA N B
W MONTANA B N E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A
UTAH N B ARIZONA N B COLORADO B N
NEW MEXICO B N N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA B N
NEBRASKA B N KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA B N
N TEXAS B N S TEXAS B N W TEXAS B N
MINNESOTA N B IOWA B N MISSOURI B N
ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN N N
ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B N
TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA B A NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN N A RHODE IS N A
PENN N N NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA B N
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A
N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A
FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN B N AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A B
AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL A N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page