297  
FXUS06 KWBC 231904  
PMDMRD  
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS  
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD  
300 PM EDT THU MARCH 23 2017  
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 29 - APR 02, 2017  
 
TODAY'S DYNAMICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA  
CIRCULATION PATTERN PREDICTED OVER NORTH AMERICA. TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED OVER  
PARTS OF THE ALEUTIANS AND WESTERN ALASKA, AND THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS, WHILE  
RIDGES ARE FORECAST OVER PARTS OF EASTERN ALASKA AND THE PACIFIC COAST, AND  
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. TODAY'S MANUAL BLEND DEPICTS NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES  
OVER THE ALEUTIANS, WESTERN ALASKA, PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS, AND MAINE  
WITH POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS.  
 
ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS AND 500-HPA SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ENHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR  
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF ALASKA. AN ANOMALOUS RIDGE IN THE EASTERN  
U.S. ENHANCES THE LIKELIHOOD FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MOST OF THE  
EASTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR  
THE WESTERN CONUS, EXCEPT FOR PARTS OF ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO, CONSISTENT WITH  
CALIBRATED REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOLS FROM GFS ENSEMBLE FORECASTS.  
 
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND ENHANCED INFLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INCREASE  
CHANCES OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS, FROM THE ROCKIES  
TO THE EAST COAST. THE HIGHEST ODDS FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST  
FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. WHERE GFS AND ECWMF ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATE 1.5 TO  
2.0 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION DURING THIS 5-DAY PERIOD. BELOW-MEDIAN  
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR CALIFORNIA DUE TO RIDGING UPSTREAM. ONSHORE FLOW  
FAVORS ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR ALASKA AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE.  
 
TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN  
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10%  
OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN  
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN  
CENTERED ON DAY 7, AND 10% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8  
 
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO  
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS AND AMONG THE FORECAST TOOLS.  
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 31 - APR 06, 2017  
 
TODAY'S ENSEMBLE MEAN DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE  
PREDICTED 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR THE WEEK-2 PERIOD.  
TROUGHS ARE FORECAST OVER THE ALEUTIANS, PARTS OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL  
CONUS, WHILE RIDGES ARE FORECAST OVER PARTS OF EASTERN ALASKA AND WESTERN  
CANADA. WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY ZONAL FLOW IS INDICATED OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD.  
ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS INDICATE MODERATE SPREAD ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE  
FORECAST DOMAIN.  
 
ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS AND/OR ANOMALOUS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TILT THE ODDS TO NEAR  
TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. ABOVE  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED FOR ALASKA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS,  
WHILE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS,  
CONSISTENT WITH CALIBRATED REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOLS FROM GFS ENSEMBLE  
FORECASTS.  
 
ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS TILT THE ODDS TO BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEST  
COAST. PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES FROM THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FAVOR ABOVE  
MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS, CONSISTENT WITH A  
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS.  
 
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE  
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY  
11, 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF  
YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10, AND 20% OF TODAY'S  
0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO  
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS AND AMONG THE FORECAST TOOLS, AND  
MODERATE SPREAD AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS  
 
FORECASTER: QIN Z  
 
NOTES:  
 
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL  
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES.  
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT  
ISSUED.  
 
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS  
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW  
 
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER  
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")  
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST  
(DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY  
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS  
ALWAYS < 40%.  
 
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING  
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")  
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST  
(DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY  
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS  
ALWAYS < 40%.  
 
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL  
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY  
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY  
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A  
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.  
 
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR  
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN  
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.  
 
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON  
APRIL 20  
 
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)  
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE  
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:  
19780331 - 19720310 - 20030313 - 19540406 - 20040324  
 
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)  
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE  
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:  
19780330 - 19540405 - 20030312 - 19720310 - 19790314  
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE  
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 29 - APR 02, 2017  
 
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN  
WASHINGTON N A OREGON A N NRN CALIF A B  
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO N A NEVADA A N  
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A  
UTAH N A ARIZONA B A COLORADO N A  
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A  
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A  
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A  
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A  
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A  
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A  
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A  
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK N A  
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A  
MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A  
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A  
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A  
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A  
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE N N  
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A  
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A  
 
 
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE  
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 31 - APR 06, 2017  
 
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN  
WASHINGTON B N OREGON N B NRN CALIF A B  
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO N A NEVADA A B  
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA N A WYOMING B A  
UTAH N A ARIZONA N A COLORADO N A  
NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A  
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A  
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A  
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A  
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A  
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A  
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A  
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A  
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A  
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A  
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A  
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A  
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A  
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A A  
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A  
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL N A  
 
LEGEND  
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN  
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN  
B - BELOW B - BELOW  
 
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL  
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE  
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.  
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS  
PMDMRD.  
 

 
 
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