355
FXUS10 KWNH 161832
PMDHMD
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
231 PM EDT WED MAY 16 2012
VALID MAY 16/1200 UTC THRU MAY 20/0000 UTC
..SEE NOUS42 KWNO ADMNFD FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST
12Z/16 FINAL MODEL PREFERENCES
ANY INITIALIZATION ERRORS WITH THE NAM AND GFS DO NOT APPEAR TO
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THEIR SOLUTIONS.
..COLD FRONT PASSING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST DAY 1
PREFERENCE: NONE
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE
THE RECENT GUIDANCE HANDLES THIS BOUNDARY COMPARABLY.
..OLD SHEAR ZONE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST DAYS 2 AND 3
PREFERENCE: ECMWF
CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO PRESENT THE LARGE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS
TYPICAL OF A NO-MANS LAND PORTION OF THE FLOW. MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE GFS...GFS PARALLEL...GEFS
MEAN...ECMWF...AND JMA...KEEP THIS ZONE SHEARED AND POSITIVELY
TILTED...WITH THE ECMWF THE FARTHEST WEST OF THAT CAMP. THE GEM
GLOBAL AND UKMET ARE ABLE TO CONSOLIDATE THE ENERGY INTO ONE MAIN
LOW CENTER...THOUGHT THE GEM GLOBAL IS CONSIDERABLY FARTHER WEST
THAN THE UKMET WITH THE ULTIMATE CIRCULATION. THE LATEST ECMWF IS
A MIDDLE GROUND OF SORTS IN THIS SEA OF MODEL SPREAD...AS IS
RECOMMENDED FOR ITS NEUTRALITY IF NOTHING ELSE.
..WAVE GRAZING THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS DAY 1
PREFERENCE: ECMWF
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE
THE NAM AND GFS RETAIN THE PRIMACY OF THE LEAD WAVE UNLIKE THE
ECMWF...WHICH LOWERS SURFACE PRESSURES MARKEDLY IN ITS WAKE OVER
SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA BY 12Z/18 FRIDAY. THE GEM GLOBAL AND UKMET
ARE CLOSELY MATCHED WITH THE ECMWF...SO WILL RELY ON THEIR LARGER
CONSENSUS.
..WAVE WASHING INTO CALIFORNIA LATE DAY 1
PREFERENCE: NONE
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE
THE RECENT GUIDANCE HANDLES THIS IMPULSE COMPARABLY.
...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML...
..500 MB FORECASTS AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML
CISCO
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