743
FXUS10 KWNH 090526
PMDHMD
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
125 AM EDT WED JUL 09 2008
VALID JUL 09/0000 UTC THRU JUL 12/1200 UTC
MODEL INITIALIZATION...
..SEE NOUS42 KWNO ADMNFD FOR STATUS OF UPPER AIR INGEST
ANY INITIALIZATION ERRORS WITH THE NAM AND GFS DO NOT APPEAR TO
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THEIR FORECASTS.
MODEL TRENDS...
...BROAD TROUGH CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY...
THE NAM SHOWS REASONABLE CONTINUITY WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS HAS
TRENDED SLOWER AND LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE TRAILING SHORT WAVE
SKIRTING NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE LATE DAY 2.
..TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER WESTERN CANADA DAY 2
THE NAM AND GFS SHOW REASONABLE CONTINUITY WITH THIS WAVE.
..ENERGY LIFTING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES
THE NAM AND GFS SHOW REASONABLE CONTINUITY WITH THIS MONSOONAL
FLOW.
...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML...
MODEL DIFFERENCES AND PREFERENCES...
...BROAD TROUGH CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY...
THE GFS IS CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN THE NAM WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BOTH WITH THE LEAD AND TRAILING SHORT WAVES. THE OTHER
RECENT GUIDANCE SHOWS A GREAT DEAL OF SPREAD WITH THE PROGRESSION
OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE 12Z/08 ECMWF KEEPING THE PACE OF THE
CURRENT GFS...AND THE 00Z GEM REGIONAL AND UKMET CLOSER TO THE
NAM. CONSIDERING THE SPREAD...A COMPROMISE SPEED SEEMS IN
ORDER...SOMEWHERE ALONG THE LINES OF THE 00Z GEM REGIONAL AND
GLOBAL.
..TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER WESTERN CANADA DAY 2
THE GFS SHOWS A BROADER VORTEX THAN THE NAM CROSSING SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA DAY 3...WITH A MID LEVEL CENTER SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH.
WITH THE SUPPORT OF THE 12Z/08 ECMWF AND THE 00Z GEM GLOBAL...WILL
RECOMMEND A SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE GFS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
..ENERGY LIFTING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES
THE GFS PUTS PRIMARY EMPHASIS ON THE IMPULSE OVER NEW MEXICO DAY
2...WITH THE BEST FORCING IN THE NAM ALONG THE MEXICAN BORDER OF
ARIZONA. THE OTHER RECENT GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE 12Z/08 ECMWF
AND THE 00Z GEM GLOBAL AND UKMET...ARE DIVIDED AS TO WHICH SHORT
WAVE GETS PRIMARY EMPHASIS DAY 2...SO WILL RECOMMEND A BROAD BRUSH
APPROACH TO SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING OVER THIS MONSOON REGION.
...500 MB GRAPHIC FORECASTS AT
WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML...
CISCO
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