573  
FXUS10 KWNH 290519  
PMDHMD  
 
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
119 AM EDT MON MAY 29 2017  
 
VALID MAY 29/0000 UTC THRU JUN 01/1200 UTC  
 
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR  
INGEST...  
 
00Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION INCLUDING PRELIMINARY PREFERENCES AND  
FORECAST CONFIDENCE  
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
 
UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST TUESDAY  
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL BLEND  
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE  
 
OVERALL THE LATEST AVAILABLE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE (INCLUDING THE  
00 UTC NAM/GFS/UKMET AND THE 12 UTC ECMWF/CANADIAN GLOBAL) IS IN  
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM.  
 
SURFACE LOW TRACKING OUT OF THE MID ATLANTIC MONDAY  
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL BLEND  
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE  
 
OVERALL THE LATEST AVAILABLE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE (INCLUDING THE  
00 UTC NAM/GFS/UKMET AND THE 12 UTC ECMWF/CANADIAN GLOBAL) IS IN  
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM.  
 
SHORTWAVE TRACKING FROM SOUTH TX ON MON TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST  
LATE TUE  
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL BLEND  
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE  
 
OVERALL THE LATEST AVAILABLE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE (INCLUDING THE  
00 UTC NAM/GFS/UKMET AND THE 12 UTC ECMWF/CANADIAN GLOBAL) IS IN  
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM.  
 
DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE WOBBLING ABOUT ONTARIO  
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
PREFERENCE: NAM/GFS/UKMET AND 12 UTC ECMWF  
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE  
 
GUIDANCE IS STILL SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE  
INTERACTION OF THE PARENT CIRCULATION LIFTING THROUGH NORTHERN  
ONTARIO ON WED ALONG WITH A COMPACT LOW DIGGING SOUTH FROM  
NORTHERN CANADA. OF THE LATEST AVAILABLE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE  
(INCLUDING THE 00 UTC NAM/GFS/UKMET AND THE 12 UTC ECMWF/CANADIAN  
GLOBAL)...THE 12 UTC REMAINS THE LARGEST OUTLIER...AMPLIFYING THE  
WESTERN EDGE OF THE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE  
NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. MORE THAN THE OTHER MODELS ON THU.  
OTHERWISE...THE GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE MOVING INTO BETTER  
AGREEMENT...AT LEAST WITH RESPECT TO THE LARGER SCALE FEATURES.  
LINGERING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE NAM/GFS/UKMET AND 12 UTC ECMWF  
MAY BE ADDRESSED WITH A GENERAL COMPROMISE.  
 
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML... /ALL LOWER CASE/  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML... /ALL LOWER CASE/  
 
PEREIRA  
 

 
 
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