108  
FXUS21 KWNC 261828  
PMDTHR  
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK  
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
300 PM EDT MAY 26 2017  
 
SYNOPSIS: A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE GULF COAST REGION AND THEN  
STALL DURING THE 3-7 DAY PERIOD. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW ON  
ITS HEELS, AND TO REINFORCE THE FIRST FRONT. THIS GENERAL BOUNDARY IS PREDICTED  
TO BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR DURING THE 3-7 DAY  
PERIOD. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY IN  
THE OUTLOOK PERIOD IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS  
REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD, ACCOMPANIED BY RELATIVELY WARM SURFACE  
TEMPERATURES. IN ALASKA, A RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED  
DURING THE 3-7 DAY PERIOD. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF  
ALASKA IS FORECAST TO TRACK TOWARDS THE ALEUTIANS, REACHING THE ARCHIPELAGO BY  
THE MIDDLE OF THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.  
 
HAZARDS  
 
HEAVY RAIN FOR PORTIONS OF TEXAS, MON-TUE, MAY 29-30.  
 
HEAVY RAIN FROM WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS TO SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI, WED-THU, MAY  
31-JUN 1.  
 
MUCH ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE PACIFIC  
NORTHWEST, MON-TUE, MAY 29-30.  
 
FLOODING OCCURRING, IMMINENT, LIKELY OR POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY, THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL INTERMOUNTAIN REGION, AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  
 
SEVERE DROUGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST, TEXAS, AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.  
 
DETAILED SUMMARY  
 
FOR MONDAY MAY 29 - FRIDAY JUNE 02: REINFORCING COLD FRONTS DRAPED ACROSS THE  
GULF COAST STATES ARE EXPECTED TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PORTIONS  
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, TENNESSEE VALLEY,  
AND THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER, ONLY TWO AREAS OF HAZARDOUS, HEAVY RAINFALL ARE  
ANTICIPATED. THE FIRST PREDICTED AREA OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN  
PORTION OF TEXAS, WHERE AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED, BUT  
LOCALLY UP TO 6 INCHES NEAR DEL RIO, ON MAY 29-30. THE SECOND PREDICTED AREA OF  
HEAVY RAINFALL EXTENDS FROM WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS TO SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI (1-3  
INCHES, MAY 31-JUN 1).  
 
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA IS  
EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS PARTS OF THE  
REGION. THE HIGHLIGHTED REGION ON THE MAP DEFINES WHERE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES  
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 12-20 DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL, AND WARM TO 90-95  
DEGREES F, ON MAY 29-30. THESE HOT TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN RAPID  
SNOW MELT, LEADING TO INCREASED RUNOFF AND FLOWS ALONG RIVERS AND STREAMS  
THROUGHOUT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN GREAT BASIN.  
 
RAINFALL, PRIOR TO THIS PERIOD, COUPLED WITH SATURATED SOILS MAY RESULT IN A  
RENEWAL OF FLOODING ACROSS PARTS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE LOWER  
PORTION OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IS FORECAST TO CREST EARLY NEXT WEEK,  
BUT HEAVY RAINFALL FORECAST DURING THE NEXT WEEK COULD PROLONG FLOODING. PLEASE  
NOTE THAT THESE FLOOD SHAPES MAY CHANGE FAIRLY FREQUENTLY; THEREFORE, FOR THE  
VERY LATEST GRAPHICS, WE RECOMMEND CONSULTING THE RIVER FORECAST CENTER (RFC)  
WEBSITE AT: HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/RFC/RFC.PHP  
 
LATE IN THIS PERIOD, A BRIEF DOWNSLOPE EVENT IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS EASTERN  
MONTANA, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AT, OR SLIGHTLY  
ABOVE, 85 DEGREES F ON JUN 1-2.  
 
FOR SATURDAY JUNE 03 - FRIDAY JUNE 09: TODAY'S DYNAMICAL MODELS GENERALLY  
PREDICT A DE-AMPLIFIED RIDGE, WITH MORE WESTERLY FLOW, OVER THE PACIFIC  
NORTHWEST, WHICH WOULD TEND TO REDUCE THE MAGNITUDE OF POSITIVE TEMPERATURE  
ANOMALIES ANTICIPATED OVER THE REGION. THEY ALSO FORECAST A WEAK, UNDERCUTTING  
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL BASIN, AND A FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH  
AMERICA.  
 
UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS PRECLUDES THE DESIGNATION OF A HEAVY  
PRECIPITATION AREA OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER 48 STATES DURING WEEK-2.  
 
THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR RELEASED ON MAY 25TH SHOWS D2-D4 DROUGHT COVERAGE OVER  
THE CONUS NOW AT 1.22%, A SLIGHT DECREASE FROM 1.38% ONE WEEK AGO. THE ONLY  
AREAS OF THE COUNTRY THAT HAVE D2 (OR WORSE) CONDITIONS INCLUDE PARTS OF THE  
SOUTHEAST, THE SOUTHERN TIP OF TEXAS, AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA.  
 
FORECASTER: ANTHONY ARTUSA  
 

 
 
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