862  
FXUS21 KWNC 281832  
PMDTHR  
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK  
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
300 PM EDT MARCH 28 2024  
 
SYNOPSIS: AN AREA OF DEPARTING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN  
CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) MAY BRING PERIODS OF HIGH WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE  
NORTHEAST AT THE START OF THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. MEANWHILE, A DIGGING TROUGH AND  
ASSOCIATED LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS WILL BRING MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR HEAVY SNOW TO  
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND ROCKY MOUNTAINS. MORE BROADLY,  
PERIODS OF HIGH WINDS MAY OCCUR IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ROBUST TROUGH AND A  
SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS ACROSS THE WEST. IN THE SOUTHEAST, RETURN FLOW OFF THE  
GULF OF MEXICO AND FRONTAL SYSTEMS EXTENDING FROM MULTIPLE AREAS OF  
LOW-PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS BRINGS CHANCES FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO  
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE PERIOD.  
 
HAZARDS  
 
SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST, FRI, APR 5.  
 
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND  
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS, FRI-TUE, APR 5-9.  
 
SLIGHT RISK OF EPISODIC HIGH WINDS FOR THE GREAT PLAINS AND INTERIOR WEST,  
FRI-TUE, APR 5-9.  
 
SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND  
LOWER-MISSISSIPPI, TENNESSEE, AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS, SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND  
SOUTHEAST, SUN-THU, APR 7-11.  
 
DETAILED SUMMARY  
 
FOR SUNDAY MARCH 31 - THURSDAY APRIL 04:  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP  
 
FOR FRIDAY APRIL 05 - THURSDAY APRIL 11: MID-LEVEL TROUGHING AND ASSOCIATED  
SURFACE LOW-PRESSURE WILL BE PROGRESSING EAST OFF OF THE NORTHEAST AT THE END  
OF WEEK-1. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM BRINGING CHANCES FOR  
HIGH WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST AT THE VERY BEGINNING OF WEEK-2. THE  
GEFS AND ECENS HAVE MANY MEMBERS FORECASTING THE MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (MSLP)  
TO FALL TOWARDS 990MB. THEREFORE, A SLIGHT RISK OF HIGH WINDS IS POSTED FOR APR  
5. HOWEVER, MUCH OF THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE EAST OF THE US BY THE START  
OF WEEK-2 AND THE ASSOCIATED SNOW HAZARD FORECAST YESTERDAY HAS BEEN  
DISCONTINUED.  
 
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST, AN AREA OF NEGATIVE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALIES IS  
FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. THIS IS LIKELY  
TO BRING GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER TO MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL  
CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) DURING THE PERIOD. AS THE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WEST  
EARLY IN THE PERIOD, THE ECENS PROBABILISTIC EXTREMES TOOL (PET) SHOWS AT LEAST  
A 20% CHANCE OF WIND SPEEDS EXCEEDING THE 85TH PERCENTILE AND 20 MPH (25 MPH,  
LOCALLY) ACROSS THE HIGHLIGHTED RISK AREA. THE GEFS PET INDICATES THESE  
THRESHOLDS FOR THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS IS  
ALSO LIKELY TO SUPPORT INCREASED CHANCES FOR HIGH WINDS FURTHER INTO THE  
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD. FINALLY, THE NATIONAL  
INTERAGENCY FIRE CENTER (NIFC) INDICATES LOW TO MODERATE FIRE POTENTIAL ACROSS  
PARTS OF THE EASTERN FOUR CORNERS REGION AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THE  
END OF WEEK-1. LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION ANTICIPATED DURING WEEK-1 COMBINED  
WITH INCREASED HIGH WIND RISK DURING WEEK-2 MAY SUPPORT ENHANCED WILDFIRE RISK  
IN THESE REGIONS. THEREFORE, A SLIGHT RISK OF EPISODIC HIGH WINDS IS POSTED FOR  
THE GREAT PLAINS, INTERIOR WEST, AND SOUTHWEST, APR 5-9. BY THE END OF THE  
PERIOD THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS LIKELY TO BE MOVING EAST AND WEAKLY ABOVE-NORMAL  
500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST REDUCING THE CHANCES FOR HIGH WINDS ACROSS THE  
REGION.  
 
THE DIGGING MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND CYCLOGENESIS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES  
INCREASES CHANCES FOR HEAVY SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS AND ROCKIES. THE  
GEFS SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT (SWE) PET INDICATES CHANCES FOR SWE TO EXCEED THE  
85TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS. MEANWHILE, THE  
ECENS PET INDICATES PRECIPITATION TO EXCEED THE 85TH PERCENTILE ACROSS A BROAD  
AREA IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS. CORRESPONDINGLY, THE RAW ECENS INDICATES  
30-40% CHANCES FOR SNOW TO EXCEED FOUR INCHES ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE  
EARLY TO MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD. THEREFORE, A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY SNOW IS POSTED  
FOR THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS FOR APRIL 5-9.  
 
RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY DEVELOP BY THE MIDDLE THROUGH THE END OF  
WEEK-2. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEMS FROM THE LEE CYCLOGENESIS DISCUSSED  
ABOVE MAY HELP TO INITIATE CHANCES FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION IN PARTS OF THE  
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THE ECENS AND GEFS PETS DEVELOP OVER 20% CHANCES FOR 3 DAY  
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TO EXCEED THE 85TH PERCENTILE AND 1 INCH ACROSS A WIDE  
AREA IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THERE IS ALSO BROAD SUPPORT FROM THE RAW TOOLS  
AS WELL FOR THIS REGION WITH 3 DAY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THE RAW ECENS  
INDICATING GREATER THAN A 40% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 1 INCH. THEREFORE, A SLIGHT  
RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS POSTED FOR THIS REGION FOR APR 7-11.  
 
FOR ALASKA, THE MEAN MID-LEVEL PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY ZONAL, WITH  
POTENTIALLY POSITIVE 500 HPA HEIGHT DEPARTURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE  
STATE. THERE IS MULTI-MODEL DEPICTION OF A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS FORMING OVER  
THE BERING SEA AND GULF OF ALASKA, ALTHOUGH THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LEAD TO  
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.  
 
FORECASTER: RYAN BOLT  
 

 
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab HPC Page Main Text Page