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FXUS25 KWNC 161230
PMDDRO
US DROUGHT MONITOR DISCUSSION
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
830 AM EST THU 16 MAY 2013
NATIONAL DROUGHT SUMMARY MAY 14, 2013 THE NORTHEAST AND
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS: A POTENT STORM SYSTEM BROUGHT MODERATE
TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO MOST OF THE REGION. BETWEEN 2
AND 5 INCHES FELL ON MANY LOCATIONS IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN
WEST VIRGINIA, THE MARYLAND PANHANDLE, CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA, NEW JERSEY, SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK, AND
CENTRAL MAINE. GENERALLY 0.5 TO 2.0 INCHES FELL ELSEWHERE,
WITH LESSER AMOUNTS REPORTED IN THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AND
NORTHERN VERMONT. THIS PRECIPITATION EASED ABNORMAL DRYNESS
IN MANY AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF NEW YORK CITY. D0
PERSISTED ACROSS INTERIOR EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND IN PARTS
OF THE APPALACHIANS WHERE 30 DAY TOTALS REMAINED TWO THIRDS OF
NORMAL OR LESS, AND A SMALL AREA OF D1 REMAINED NEAR THE WEST
VIRGINIA PANHANDLE. ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND,
ONLY A FEW SPOTS IN EXTANT D0 TO D1 CONDITIONS IMPROVED OUTSIDE
CENTRAL MAINE. MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF CENTRAL MAINE HAS RECORDED 2 TO 5
INCHES LESS PRECIPITATION THAN NORMAL OVER THE LAST 90 DAYS.
SOUTHEAST: IN FLORIDA, BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES OF RAIN FELL
NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE, EASING ABNORMAL DRYNESS IN A SMALL AREA
NORTHWEST OF THE LAKE. FARTHER NORTH, SIMILAR AMOUNTS WERE
RECORDED ALONG THE GULF COAST OF NORTHERN PENINSULA, SHAVING
OFF THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE SMALL D2 AREA. ACROSS OTHER
AREAS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA,
ONLY A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH FELL AT BEST. AS A RESULT,
EXISTING DRYNESS AND DROUGHT PERSISTED, AND ABNORMAL DRYNESS
WAS EXPANDED THROUGH NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND ADJACENT
SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA. THE D0 AND D1 AREAS IN THE SOUTHEAST
GENERALLY RECEIVED 50 TO 75 PERCENT OF NORMAL PRECIPITATION
DURING THE FIRST 4.5 MONTHS OF THE YEAR, AND 90 DAY TOTALS
ARE 3 TO 6 INCHES BELOW NORMAL IN NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PLAINS AND THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY: BENEFICIAL PRECIPITATION GENERALLY
0.5 TO 2.0 INCHES FELL ON PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA,
SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA, WEST CENTRAL IOWA, AND PARTS OF
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NEBRASKA, WITH UP TO 3 INCHES REPORTED
IN A FEW SPOTS FROM CENTRAL IOWA WESTWARD TO THE OMAHA, NE
AREA. AS A RESULT, FORMER D0 TO D2 CONDITIONS IMPROVED BY ONE
CATEGORY WHERE THE LARGER AMOUNTS WERE MEASURED. ELSEWHERE,
ONLY ISOLATED LOCATIONS REPORTED MORE THAN A FEW TENTHS OF
AN INCH. D0 EXPANDED TO COVER SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA, AND
DRYNESS AND DROUGHT REMAINED ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED ELSEWHERE.
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE GREAT PLAINS: PRECIPITATION TOTALS
VARIED WIDELY THIS WEEK, EVEN WITHIN SMALL DISTANCES IN SOME
CASES. AT LEAST A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH FELL ON MOST SITES IN
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS, WEST CENTRAL KANSAS, CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA EAST OF THE PANHANDLE, THE EASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE, AND MOST OF TEXAS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LONGVIEW
TO DALLAS TO EAST OF SAN ANGELO. WITHIN THESE AREAS, SOME
LOCATIONS RECEIVED MODERATE TO HEAVY AMOUNTS. MORE THAN
2 INCHES SOAKED MANY LOCATIONS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS, WITH SOME REPORTS TOPPING 5 INCHES IN AREAS FROM NORTH
OF HOUSTON TO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. MORE THAN 2 INCHES ALSO
FELL ON MANY LOCATIONS IN SOUTHERN TEXAS AND IN SMALL AREAS
ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE, NORTHEASTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA, AND NORTH CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS. IN CONTRAST, ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION, IF ANY,
FELL ON NORTHWESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS, THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE, THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE, THE BIG BEND REGION
OF TEXAS, AND MOST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. PREDICTABLY,
THIS PRECIPITATION PATTERN RESULTED IN AN ARRAY OF SMALL
SCALE DROUGHT MONITOR ADJUSTMENTS, BUT SOME BROADER CHANGES
CAN BE GENERALIZED. DRYNESS AND DROUGHT EASED SIGNIFICANTLY IN
THE WETTER AREAS OF SOUTHEASTERN AND /TO A LESSER EXTENT/ FAR
SOUTHERN TEXAS. MANY OF THE FORMER D1 TO D3 AREAS IN NORTHERN
KANSAS ALSO IMPROVED. ON THE OTHER HAND, D3 AND D4 AREAS
INCREASED A BIT ALONG THE RED RIVER, AND D0 TO D1 CONDITIONS
EXPANDED FROM NORTHEASTERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS
AND NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA. SINCE MID FEBRUARY, PRECIPITATION
DEFICITS OF 4 TO LOCALLY OVER 8 INCHES HAVE ACCUMULATED IN
NORTHEASTERN TEXAS, THE ADJACENT RED RIVER VALLEY IN OKLAHOMA,
NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA, AND SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS. THE ROCKIES
WESTWARD TO THE PACIFIC COAST: MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION
FELL ON CENTRAL, EAST CENTRAL, AND NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF
COLORADO, WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES REPORTED NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE
STATE. AS A RESULT, THE D2 TO D4 AREAS IN EASTERN COLORADO
RETREATED SOUTHWARD SOMEWHAT, AND IMPROVEMENTS TO D0 AND D1
WERE MADE IN CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE.
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AT LEAST A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH WAS
REPORTED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING, WESTERN COLORADO,
EASTERN UTAH, SOUTHEASTERN IDAHO, THE SIERRA NEVADA, AND THE
SOUTHERN CASCADES WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION EXPERIENCED
A DRY WEEK. THE DECLINING SNOWPACK AND SUBSTANTIALLY BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE PAST 2 TO 6 MONTHS LED TO SOME
SIGNIFICANT DETERIORATION ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER OF
MONTANA AND ADJACENT SECTIONS OF IDAHO. MOST NOTABLY, A BROAD
AREA OF D3 WAS INTRODUCED IN SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA WHERE 20 TO
50 PERCENT OF NORMAL PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN MEASURED OVER THE
PAST 3 MONTHS. SOME AREAS IN THIS REGION HAVE RECEIVED ONLY
40 TO 65 PERCENT OF NORMAL AMOUNTS SINCE THE START OF THE
WATER YEAR IN OCTOBER 2012. MEANWHILE, D2 CONDITIONS IN PART
OF NORTHEASTERN UTAH WERE IMPROVED TO D1 WHERE DEFICITS HAVE
DECLINED DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF MONTHS. OTHER AREAS WERE
UNCHANGED. HAWAII, ALASKA, AND PUERTO RICO: RECENT WETNESS
ON THE EASTWARD FACING SLOPES OF MAUI HAS BOOSTED STREAMFLOWS
AND EASED ABNORMAL DRYNESS. DRYNESS AND DROUGHT CONTINUE ON
LEEWARD PARTS OF MAUI, WITH SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT COVERING
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE ISLAND. ON THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII,
RECENT RAINFALL HAS IMPROVED PASTURE CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER
SOUTH KOHALA DISTRICT, WHERE D3 WAS IMPROVED TO D2. PASTURE
IMPROVEMENTS WERE ALSO REPORTED IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
THE KONA SLOPES, RESULTING IN CONDITIONS EASING TO D0. DRYNESS
AND DROUGHT REMAINED UNCHANGED IN OTHER PARTS OF THE STATE. IN
ALASKA, ABNORMAL DRYNESS AND MODERATE DROUGHT REMAINED UNCHANGED
AS LESS THAN 0.3 INCH OF PRECIPITATION FELL ON CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE. LOOKING AHEAD: DURING MAY 16
20, 2013, HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST OVER A BROAD AREA
COVERING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PLAINS,
AND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. GENERALLY 1.5 TO LOCALLY 3.5
INCHES ARE ANTICIPATED IN PARTS OF MONTANA, ACROSS ALL OF NORTH
DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA, IN ALL BUT SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA,
AND THROUGH ADJACENT SECTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND IOWA. MODERATE
AMOUNTS OF AT LEAST 0.5 INCH ARE EXPECTED FROM THE EASTERN
REACHES OF KANSAS, OKLAHOMA, AND NORTHEASTERN TEXAS EASTWARD
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC AND THE CAROLINAS. ONE TO TWO INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA, WESTERN ARKANSAS, AND MUCH OF
NORTH CAROLINA AND ADJACENT SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA. IN CONTRAST,
LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
QUARTER OF THE COUNTRY AND ACROSS SOUTHERN, WESTERN, AND MOST
OF COASTAL TEXAS. LIGHT AMOUNTS, LOCALLY APPROACHING AN INCH,
ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. FOR THE ENSUING 5 DAYS /MAY 21 25,
2013/, THE ODDS FAVOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ACROSS
NORTHERN AND WESTERN ALASKA, THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS,
AND THE EASTERN STATES NORTH OF FLORIDA. IN CONTRAST, BELOW
MEDIAN PRECIPITATION APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES NORTHWARD THROUGH
SOUTHERN MONTANA AND SOUTHEASTERN IDAHO. AUTHOR: RICH TINKER,
NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
DROUGHT INTENSITY CATEGORIES...
D0 ABNORMALLY DRY...
D1 MODERATE DROUGHT...
D2 SEVERE DROUGHT...
D3 EXTREME DROUGHT...
D4 EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT
DROUGHT TYPES...
USED ONLY WHEN IMPACTS DIFFER...
S SHORT TERM...
L LONG TERM.
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