117
AGAK78 PACR 232305 AAA
HMDACR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NWS ALASKA PACIFIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER ANCHORAGE AK
300 PM AKDT THU MAY 23 2013
..FLOOD POTENTIAL
WATER LEVELS HAVE FALLEN BELOW BANKFULL AT FORT YUKON.
SEE THE BREAKUP MAP AND THE BREAKUP SUMMARY FOR CURRENT BREAKUP
ACTIVITY... INCLUDING FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS.
INCREASED SNOWMELT DUE TO WARMING TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RISES ON STREAMS IN THE EASTERN
INTERIOR... SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AND COPPER RIVER BASIN. THE
POTENTIAL FOR NON-BREAKUP RELATED FLOODING IS CURRENTLY LOW FOR THE
STATE OF ALASKA.
..HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA IS BRINGING SOME CLOUDS
AND A FEW SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THIS TROUGH
WILL WEAKEN INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE STATE
FROM WESTERN CANADA. THIS WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES AND
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER TO THE MAINLAND INTO THE WEEKEND.
FREEZING LEVELS ARE GENERALLY BETWEEN 3400 AND 5600 FEET OVER THE
MAINLAND... CLIMBING TO 8700 FEET AT ANNETTE.
SELECTION OF PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR 24 HOURS ENDING AT 4AM:
LOCATION NAME PE TS 24 HR
======== ==== == ==
CKLA2 CAPE KIAVAK RAWS PC RG : 0.79
PAOM NOME PP RZ : 0.30
PACM SCAMMON BAY PP RZ : 0.18
PADQ KODIAK PP RZ : 0.17
..FORECAST PRECIPITATION
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE AKPEN AND BRISTOL BAY
COASTAL REGIONS... AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA...
TODAY. FOR SATURDAY... LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK
INTO SOUTHEAST ALASKA.
..QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECASTS (QPF) GRIDS
DAY 1-3 QPF GRIDS WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS... WITH
SOME MANUAL EDITS. DAY 4-7 QPF GRIDS WERE BASED ON THE GFS... WITH
OCCASIONAL MANUAL EDITS.
..LONG RANGE
THE 6 TO 10 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK HAS INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER ALL OF THE MAINLAND AND THE PANHANDLE.
THE 6 TO 10 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK HAS INCREASED CHANCES OF BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER ALL OF THE MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA.
................................................................
THE HYDROMET DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED EVERY DAY UNTIL FREEZE UP
BEGINS IN THE FALL. A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THE HYDROMET DISCUSSION
IS AVAILABLE AT HTTP://APRFC.ARH.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/GHMD.PHP
ACL
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