169  
AGAK78 PACR 212343  
HMDACR  
 
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION  
NWS ALASKA PACIFIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER ANCHORAGE AK  
300 PM AKDT FRI NOV 21 2014  
   
..FLOOD POTENTIAL
 
 
 
FLOOD POTENTIAL IS LOW FOR THE STATE OF ALASKA.  
 
A FALL BREAKUP IS AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE KUSKOKWIM RIVER...  
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.  
   
..HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
 
 
OVER THE PAST WEEK THE UPPER-LEVEL WEATHER PATTERN HAS BEEN  
DOMINATED BY A RIDGE IN WESTERN CANADA AND EASTERN ALASKA... WITH  
GENERALLY SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND. THIS HAS  
BROUGHT SIGNIFICANT RAIN TO KODIAK ISLAND AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST  
ALASKA... AND BROUGHT WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF THE  
CENTRAL AND WESTERN MAINLAND. THESE CONDITIONS HAVE ALLOWED THE  
FALL BREAKUP ON MUCH OF THE KUSKOKWIM RIVER... WHICH BEGAN LAST  
WEEK... TO CONTINUE. EVEN THOUGH SOME ICE JAMS ARE FORMING ON THE  
RIVER... SIGNIFICANT FLOODING FROM THE ICE JAMS IS NOT EXPECTED AS  
THE ICE IS RELATIVELY THIN. TEMPERATURES OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN  
ALASKA ARE FORECAST TO COOL THIS WEEKEND.  
   
..SNOW DEPTH
 
 
SNOW DEPTHS HAVE NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE LAST WEEK, THE  
DEEPEST REPORTED SNOWPACK IS CURRENTLY NORTHEAST OF FAIRBANKS...  
WITH 10 TO 15 INCHES REPORTED... WHILE 2-6 INCHES HAVE BEEN REPORTED  
AROUND FAIRBANKS ITSELF.  
   
..ICE THICKNESS
 
 
ICE THICKNESS ARE MEASURED NEAR THE 1ST OF THE MONTH... AND SOME  
LOCATIONS WERE NOT THICK ENOUGH ON NOVEMBER 1 FOR A MEASUREMENT TO  
BE MADE SAFELY. THE MEASUREMENTS THAT WERE REPORTED RANGE FROM 1 TO  
10 INCHES IN THE TANANA BASIN... 5 INCHES AT LAKE MINCHUMINA... 4  
INCHES AT AMBER LAKE IN THE SUSITNA VALLEY... AND 10 INCHES AT  
COLVILLE VILLAGE ON THE COLVILLE RIVER.  
   
..LONG RANGE
 
 
THE 6 TO 10 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK HAS INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MOST OF THE STATE.  
 
THE 6 TO 10 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK HAS INCREASED CHANCES FOR  
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE AKPEN... WITH NORMAL  
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LIKELY OVER THE MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA.  
 
PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HOME PAGE FOR FURTHER  
INFORMATION.  
   
................................................................
 
 
THIS HYDROMET DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED EVERY FRIDAY UNTIL BREAKUP  
BEGINS IN THE SPRING.  
 
A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THE HYDROMET DISCUSSION IS AVAILABLE AT  
HTTP://APRFC.ARH.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/GHMD.PHP  
 
A GRAPHICAL SLIDE SHOW PRESENTATION OF HYDROMET ISSUES IS AVAILABLE  
AT HTTP://APRFC.ARH.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PRESENT  

 
 
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