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AGUS71 KTAR 081629
HMDTAR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER...TAUNTON...MA
1127 AM EST SUN NOV 08 2009
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:
:
15Z ( 10 AM EST ) MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS NORTH INTO NEW
YORK STATE. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
ACROSS THE SEVEN STATE REGION OF NEW ENGLAND AND NEW YORK STATE
RIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH MOST AREAS ACROSS INTERIOR NEW YORK
STATE AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND REACHING NEAR OR ABOVE 60F
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS.
:
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION BY THAT TIME. A
RETURN TO COLDER TEMPERATURES IS ALSO EXPECTED BY MID-WEEK.
:
PRECIPITATION SUMMARY:
:
DURING THE PAST 24-HOUR PERIOD ENDING AT 7 AM EST THIS SUNDAY
MORNING...THE ONLY PRECIPITATION OCCURRED ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE
WHERE ISOLATED RAINSHOWERS PUSHED THROUGH JUST BEFORE DAWN THIS
MORNING. THE RAINFALL WAS HYDROLOGICALLY INSIGNIFICANT WITH JUST A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN REPORTED AT SELECTED NORTHERN
MAINE OBSERVATION SITES.
:
HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS:
:
RIVER FLOWS ARE GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL EARLY NOVEMBER VALUES
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND NEW YORK STATE. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS RULE
IS FOUND ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BOTH NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
VERMONT WHERE FLOWS ARE STARTING TO DROP A BIT BELOW NORMAL NOW.
:
WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO...WE THINK
THAT RIVER FLOWS WILL CONTINUE THEIR TREND OF SLOWLY FALLING. A
FEW BASINS ACROSS CENTRAL MAINE COULD SEE SOME VERY MINOR RISES...
GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.5 FEET...DUE TO SNOWMELT AS THE LAST OF THE
SNOW FROM A SYSTEM EARLIER IN THE WEEK MELTS OFF IN THE
UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
:
ADDITIONAL WATER AND WEATHER RELATED INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON
THE NWS/NERFC HOME PAGE AT HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/ER/NERFC
:
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE FOR THE NORTHEAST -- 3 HOUR GUIDANCE BY STATE
AND COUNTIES WITH LOWEST GUIDANCE VALUES:
NEW YORK 1.3 - 4.5 INCH OSWEGO
VERMONT 2.1 - 3.5 INCH ORLEANS LAMOILLE
. ERN CHITTENDEN
NEW HAMPSHIRE 2.4 - 4.1 INCH CHESHIRE
MAINE 2.0 - 4.0 INCH CTR SOMERSET
CONNECTICUT 2.0 - 4.0 INCH SRN FAIRFIELD SRN NEW HAVEN
MASSACHUSETTS 2.2 - 4.5 INCH WRN FRANKLIN
RHODE ISLAND 2.9 - 4.1 INCH SERN PROVIDENCE
:
NERFC/HORWOOD
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