161
AGUS71 KTAR 061632
HMDTAR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER...TAUNTON...MA
1232 PM EDT SAT SEP 06 2008
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:
:
TROPICAL STORM HANNA CONTINUES NNE THIS MORNING AND WILL QUICKLY
PASS THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. A PATH OF HEAVY RAIN,
ALONG AND JUST TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER IS EXPECTED WITH 3 TO 5
INCHES POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MUCH OF
THIS PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO FALL IN A 6 HR TIMEFRAME.
:
QPF WAS EXTENDED TO 36 HOURS TO CAPTURE THE ENTIRE EVENT ON THE
NERFC SERVICE AREA.
:
A QUICK 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN OCCURRED EARLIER TODAY IN PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN A "PRE-HANNA" BAND OF PRECIPITATION.
:
RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE GENERALLY RECEDING AT MID-DAY EXCEPT WHERE
THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION OCCURRED EARLIER TODAY. SMALL RISES HAVE
BEEN SEEN ON AREA RIVERS IN THE HEAVY RAIN BAND.
:
THE INTENSITY AND DURATION OF THIS RAINFALL WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY, AS WELL AS THE LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE THAT WILL DETERMINE
WATERSHED RESPONSE IN THE SOUTHERN-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE NERFC
SERVICE AREA. ANY SHIFT IN THE TRACK NORTH AND WEST OF THE CURRENT
THINKING, WILL HAVE A SHIFT IN THE ALIGNMENT OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION, THUS AFFECTING BASINS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CURRENT
PROJECTIONS.
:
PRECIPITATION SUMMARY:
:
PRECIPITATION IN THE PAST 24 HOURS ENDING AT 12Z THIS SATURDAY
MORNING COVERED MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW
YORK. A HEAVY BAND OF RAIN EXTENDED FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL
CONNECTIICUT EASTWARD TO NEAR PLYMOUTH, MA. SEVERAL REPORTS OVER
3 INCHES WERE REPORTED IN THIS AREA. FURTHER NORTH, AMOUNTS OF 0.
5 TO 1.5 INCHES WERE COMMON.
:
HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS:
:
DUE TO THE DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ON THE NERFC AREA RIVERS IN
SOUTHERN NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND, ONLY MINOR
FLOODING IS INDICATED AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS AT THIS TIME. RIVERS
IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK INTO WESTERN AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND,
INCLUDING THE HOUSATONIC, YANTIC, PAWTUXET, BLACKSTONE, NEPONSET,
CHARLES, THE LOWER CONNECTICUT AND MERRIMACK RIVERS AND THEIR
TRIBUTARIES WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
:
NERFC RIVER LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ARE STEADY OR FALLING THIS
SATURDAY MORNING EXCEPT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK WHERE MINOR RISES ARE OCCURRING.
FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO POWER GENERATION AND/OR TIDAL VARIATIONS ARE
BEING OBSERVED.
:
THE NERFC WILL CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF "HANNA" AS IT
APPROACHES THE NERFC SERVICE AREA. ANY MOVEMENT TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CURRENT TRACK WILL SHIFT HEAVY RAINFALL INTO THE
HOOSIC RIVER, SCHOHARIE CREEK AND INTO THE CENTRAL CONNECTICUT AND
MERRIMACK RIVER WATERSHEDS.
:
ADDITIONAL WATER AND WEATHER RELATED INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON
THE NWS/NERFC HOME PAGE AT HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/ER/NERFC
:
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE FOR THE NORTHEAST -- 3 HOUR GUIDANCE BY STATE
AND COUNTIES WITH LOWEST GUIDANCE VALUES:
NEW YORK 2.0 - 4.5 INCH NEW YORK BRONX
. RICHMOND KINGS
. QUEENS NASSAU
. NWRN SUFFOLK NERN SUFFOLK
. SWRN SUFFOLK SERN SUFFOLK
VERMONT 3.2 - 4.5 INCH ORLEANS LAMOILLE
. BENNINGTON ERN FRANKLIN
NEW HAMPSHIRE 3.2 - 4.5 INCH INTR ROCKINGHAM
MAINE 3.6 - 4.5 INCH NRN SOMERSET
CONNECTICUT 2.0 - 4.5 INCH SRN FAIRFIELD SRN NEW HAVEN
MASSACHUSETTS 2.8 - 4.5 INCH ERN PLYMOUTH
RHODE ISLAND 2.6 - 4.5 INCH SERN PROVIDENCE ERN KENT
:
NERFC/CAPONE
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