900
AGUS74 KFWR 071532
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1032 AM CDT SUN SEP 7 2008
VALID SEPTEMBER 7 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 12
...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
..HURRICANE IKE NEARING CUBA
..UNSETTLED WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE WGRFC THIS WEEK
THE WEATHER ACROSS THE WGRFC REGION WILL TAKE AN UNSETTLED TURN THIS
WEEK WITH SEVERAL SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE REGION.
CURRENTLY, A PERSISTENT WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LINGERS OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO, BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
WESTERN TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO
TRACK NORTHWARD ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TODAY AND TONIGHT AND BE
ABSORBED INTO A LARGER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS LARGER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PUSH A COLD FRONT
INTO NORTHERN TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS TUEDAY INTO THURSDAY.
FURTHER WEST, A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST THE DEEPEN OVER
THE U.S. WEST COAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE POSITION OF THE
WESTERN TROUGH WILL CREATE A SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN OVER
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE WGRFC REGION. IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC,
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWARD
TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM LOWELL WILL BE CARRIED OVER THE MEXICAN INTERIOR ON
THE SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW PATTERN FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE
REGION. DISTURBANCES IN THIS FLOW, COMBINED WITH THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE, DAYTIME HEATING, AND OROGRAPHIC LIFTING, WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO MUCH OF WESTERN
TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY BY THE END OF THE WEEK, DUE TO
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVING OVER THE REGION.
HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR GREAT INAGUA ISLAND IN THE SOUTHERN
BAHAMAS LATE THIS MORNING. THE CURRENT FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER HAS IKE MOVING OVER CUBA AND INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BY FRIDAY MORNING, IKE IS FORECAST
TO BE IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO HEADING IN A WEST NORTHWEST
DIRECTION. IF IKE DOES MOVE ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF CUBA AS
INDICATED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST, SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS LIKELY
TO OCCUR. HOWEVER, CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF WILL ALLOW FOR
RESTRENGTHENING, AND IKE WILL LIKELY BE A STRONG HURRICANE AS IT
APPROACHES THE GULF COAST. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE AS TO THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF
HURRICANE IKE. WGRFC CONTINUES TO MONITOR CLOSELY THIS EVENT FOR
IMPACTS TO THE TEXAS COAST.
...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
FOR TODAY INTO MONDAY MORNING, MEAN AREAL PRECIPITATION (MAP)
AMOUNTS OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH ARE FORECAST OVER FAR WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.
FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING, MAP AMOUNTS OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH
ARE FORECAST OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN TEXAS, WITH AMOUNTS
UP TO 1.00 INCH FORECAST OVER A SMALL PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS.
FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, MAP AMOUNTS OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH
ARE FORECAST FROM EAST CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH THE NORTHERN TEXAS HILL
COUNTRY INTO WESTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. MAP AMOUNTS OF
0.25 TO 0.50 INCH ARE ALSO FORECAST OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO AND OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING, MAP AMOUNTS OF 1.00 TO 2.00
INCHES ARE FORECAST FROM THE BIG BEND REGION ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS.
MAP AMOUNTS OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH ARE FORECAST OVER FAR WEST TEXAS
AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO, AND FROM THE WESTERN TEXAS HILL COUNTRY INTO
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
RAINFALL FORECAST THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK WESTERN TEXAS WILL
LIKELY GENERATE RUNOFF IN THE RIO GRANDE BASIN. RUNOFF SUFFICIENT
TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES IS POSSBILE AS SIGNIFICANT RIVER
RISES ARE ALREADY OCCURRING THROUGH THE BIG BEND REGION OF THE RIO
GRANDE DUE TO RESERVOIR DISCHARGES FROM MEXICO. ELSEWHERE, ONLY
LIMITED RUNOFF IS EXPECTED FROM RAINFALL FORECAST THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.
...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
..RIO GRANDE BASIN
..MODERATE FLOODING
REPORTED RELEASES FROM LUIS LEON RESERVOIR IN MEXICO ON THE RIO
CONCHOS WILL PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING AT PRESIDIO INTERNATIONAL BRIDGE
(PRST2), MODERATE FLOODING AT PRESIDIO 5SE (PRDT2), AND MINOR
FLOODING AT LAJITAS (TGAT2, CASTALON (CSTT2), AND JOHNSON RANCH
(TELT2). FLOODING/HIGHER FLOWS ARE EXPECTED DOWNSTREAM OF THESE
POINTS, ALONG THE RIO GRANDE TO AMISTAD.
..REMAINDER OF WGRFC BASINS
ALL RIVERS THROUGHOUT THE WGRFC AREA, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE RIO
GRANDE, ARE EXPERIENCING BASEFLOW CONDITIONS. FORECAST RAINFALL
OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS DOES NOT POSE SIGNIFICANT RIVER THREATS FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE WGRFC REGION, THE EXCEPTION BEING THE RIO GRANDE.
...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
THE FOLLOWING URLS (ALL LOWER CASE) PROVIDE ADDITIONAL GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION ON CURRENT AND FORECAST HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS, PAST AND
FUTURE PRECIPITATION, AND DROUGHT AND CLIMATE FORECASTS. THIS
INFORMATION IS PROVIDED BY A VARIETY OF NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE,
NOAA, AND PRIVATE SECTOR ENTITIES.
FOR SPECIFIC INFORMATION ON RIVER CONDITIONS, REFER TO THE AHPS
PAGES FROM THE LOCAL NWS OFFICES AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/RIVERS_TAB.PHP
THE FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK CAN BE VIEWED ON OUR WEBPAGE AT:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/WGRFC/FOP/WGRFCFOP.HTML
MPE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/WGRFC/PRECIP/HTML/MPE_ESTIMATES.SHTML
NATIONAL PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/RFCSHARE/PRECIP_ANALYSIS_NEW.PHP
THE FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS (QPF) CAN BE VIEWED ON OUR WEBPAGE AT:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/WGRFC/HYDROMET/QPF/QPFPAGE.HTML
THE US DROUGHT ASSESSMENT:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/EXPERT_ASSESSMENT/DROUGHT_ASSESSMENT.SHTML
SHELTON
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