012
AGUS74 KFWR 281658
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1054 AM CST WED FEB 28 2018
VALID FEBRUARY 28 THROUGH MARCH 5
..THIS PRODUCT WILL NO LONGER BE GENERATED AFTER TODAY
...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER DAY OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR
LOCATIONS OF NORTH AND EAST TEXAS THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW. MOST
AREAS OF THE WGRFC ARE ALREADY BEING IMPACTED THIS MORNING FROM
NUMEROUS SHOWERS CONTINUING TO MOVE OFF TOWARDS THE NORTH EAST. THIS
ACTIVITY IS PRODUCING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.50 INCH OR LESS PER HOUR.
INCREASES IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW SOME STRONG
STORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS,
AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE AND DRYLINE APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTH AND
EAST TEXAS, WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME ADDITIONAL MINOR RISES ON SOME
SMALLER BASINS OF THE SABINE, NECHES AND TRINITY RIVERS. AMOUNTS OF
OVER 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS AREAS OF EXTREME NORTHEAST TEXAS,
MAINLY WHERE THE GREATEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE.
EXPECT A BRIEF BREAK TOMORROW. RAINFALL CHANCES INCREASE NEXT WEEK.
...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
FOR TODAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING, MEAN AREAL PRECIPITATION (MAP)
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 2.00 INCH ARE FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND
EAST TEXAS.
FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING, NO SIGNIFICANT MAP AMOUNTS ARE
FORECAST FOR THE WGRFC AREA.
FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING, NO SIGNIFICANT MAP AMOUNTS ARE
FORECAST FOR THE WGRFC AREA.
FOR SATURDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING, MAP AMOUNTS OF UP TO 0.25 INCH
ARE FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
..TRINITY BASIN
..MODERATE FLOODING
SOILS ARE SATURATED AND ANY FUTURE RAINFALL TODAY WILL GENERATE
RUNOFF. WITH CURRENT FORECAST RAINFALL SOME OF THE UPPER TRINITY
SITES MAY RAISE BACK INTO ACTION AND MINOR FLOODING.
A FLOOD WAVE IS MOVING DOWN THE TRINITY AND HAS CRESTED AT TRINIDAD,
AND WILL MOVE TO LONG LAKE AREA NEXT WHICH IS ON THE RISE TOWARDS
MINOR FLOOD.
DOWNSTREAM, MODERATE FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR LIBERTY, WITH HIGHER
FLOWS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEK AND PROBABLY
INTO NEXT WEEK AS LAKE LIVINGSTON KEEPS PASSING THE WAVE MOVING
THROUGH.
THE RAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL SLOW THE RECESSIONS BY ABOUT
A DAY OR SO KEEPING FLOOD LEVELS LONGER INTO THE WEEK.
..NECHES BASIN
..MODERATE FLOODING
WIDESPREAD MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES TO OCCUR OVER THE ENTIRE NECHES
RIVER BASIN WITH MODERATE FLOODING FORECAST AT SOME LOCATIONS IN
THE LOWER BASIN.
..SABINE BASIN
..MODERATE FLOODING
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FLOODING, WITH WIDESPREAD MODERATE FLOODING
IS OCCURRING OR FORECAST ON THE MAINSTEM SABINE AND TRIBUTARIES
DOWNSTREAM OF TOLEDO BEND RESERVOIR. BAYOU ANACOCO (RPIL1) AND THE
SABINE RIVER AT BON WEIR (BWRT2) AND DEWEYVILLE (DWYT2) ARE
FORECAST TO REACH MODERATE FLOOD STAGE DURING THIS WEEK. SPILLWAY
GATES ARE OPEN AT TOLEDO BEND, RESULTING IN A RELEASE NEAR 35,425
CFS. UPSTREAM OF THE LAKE, ONLY ACTION STAGE IS EXPECTED ON THE
SABINE RIVER AT LOGANSPORT (LPTL1), BUT THE REST OF THE SABINE IS
IN MINOR OR MODERATE FLOOD UP AS FAR AS MINEOLA (MLAT2). ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE HEADWATERS PUSHING STREAMS BACK INTO
MINOR FLOOD LEVELS.
..SAN JACINTO BASIN
..MINOR FLOODING
RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL HAS PUSHED PORTIONS OF THE WEST FORK
AND EAST FORK OF THE SAN JACINTO RIVER BASIN INTO ACTION STAGE
AND MINOR FLOOD. THE EAST FORK SAN JACINTO RIVER NEAR NEW CANEY
(NCET2) IS THE ONLY SITE CURRENTLY IN FLOOD. ALL OTHERS ARE BELOW
FLOOD STAGE AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
..SAN BERNARD BASIN
..HIGHER FLOW NON-FLOOD FORECASTS
RAINFALL PUSHED THE SAN BERNARD NEAR EAST BERNARD (EBBT2) INTO
ACTION STAGE CRITERIA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
..REMAINDER OF WGRFC BASINS
ADDITIONAL RAIN IS FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN TEXAS WHICH
MAY SEE RENEWED RISES DUE TO SATURATED SOILS. RIVERS IN THE WEST
WILL REMAIN IN BASEFLOW.
...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
THE FOLLOWING URLS (ALL LOWER CASE) PROVIDE ADDITIONAL GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION ON CURRENT AND FORECAST HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS, PAST AND
FUTURE PRECIPITATION, AND DROUGHT AND CLIMATE FORECASTS. THIS
INFORMATION IS PROVIDED BY A VARIETY OF NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE,
NOAA, AND PRIVATE SECTOR ENTITIES.
NOTE - THIS PRODUCT WILL NO LONGER BE GENERATED AFTER TODAY.
ALL INFORMATION IN THIS PRODUCT CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/WGRFC/QUICK_BRIEFING
FOR SPECIFIC INFORMATION ON RIVER CONDITIONS, REFER TO THE AHPS
PAGES FROM THE LOCAL NWS OFFICES AT:
HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/
THE FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK CAN BE VIEWED ON OUR WEBPAGE AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/WGRFC/WGRFCFOP
THE WEST GULF RIVER FORECAST CENTER IS NOW ON FACEBOOK:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSWESTGULF
NATIONAL PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS:
HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/PRECIP/
THE FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS (QPF) CAN BE VIEWED ON OUR WEBPAGE AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/WGRFC/WGRFCQPFPAGE
THE US DROUGHT ASSESSMENT:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/DROUGHT
THE LATEST ON RESERVOIR INFORMATION FOR TEXAS:
HTTP://WWW.WATERDATAFORTEXAS.ORG/RESERVOIRS/STATEWIDE
MCCANTS
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