725  
AGUS74 KFWR 241603  
HMDFWR  
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX  
1051 AM CDT MON APR 24 2017  
 
VALID APRIL 24 THROUGH APRIL 29  
 
...DRIER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF WGRFC AREA TODAY,  
THEN A COUPLE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION...  
 
...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...  
 
AN UPPER AIR CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OVER EASTERN  
ALABAMA THIS MORNING. BEHIND THIS DEPARTING LOW, A RIDGE OF HIGH  
PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED AND IS MOVING OVER TEXAS. WITH THE EXCEPTION  
OF SOME SHOWERS OVER MEXICO AND RESIDUAL SHOWERS BEHIND THE OLD  
COLD FRONT OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS, DRY WEATHER OCCURRED THE PAST 24  
HOURS. AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD THE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE  
OVER OUR REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.  
 
BY TUESDAY A MORE ZONAL UPPER AIR FLOW WILL DEVELOP. AS UPPER  
DISTURBANCES RIPPLE THROUGH THIS FLOW THEY MAY GENERATE SOME LIGHT  
PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO TUESDAY INTO  
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THEN ON TUESDAY NIGHT ONE OF THE UPPER  
DISTURBANCES WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. THIS  
STORM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY. WHILE MOST  
OF THE RAIN FROM THIS DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST FROM COLORADO AND THE  
TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO OKLAHOMA, A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY  
DEVELOP AS FAR SOUTH AS EXTREME NORTHERN AND ALL OF NORTHEAST TEXAS  
INTO LOUISIANA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE STORM WILL EXIT THE  
REGION BEFORE THURSDAY MORNING.  
 
AFTER A MOSTLY DRY DAY THURSDAY, A STRONGER UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE IS  
FORECAST TO MOVE OVER UTAH ON FRIDAY. ALONG WITH SOME PRECIPITATION  
OVER THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE WGRFC AREA, THERE MAY BE A BETTER  
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER TEXAS BY SATURDAY MORNING  
AS THIS STORM MOVES SLOWLY EAST.  
 
...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...  
FOR TODAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING, NO SIGNIFICANT MEAN AREAL  
PRECIPITATION (MAP) AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST FOR THE WGRFC AREA. MAP  
AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN 0.25 OF AN INCH ARE FORECAST OVER SOUTHERN  
COLORADO AND EXTREME NORTHERN NEW MEXICO.  
 
FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, MAP AMOUNTS OF 0.25 TO 0.50 OF AN  
INCH ARE FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME NORTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO  
MUCH OF COLORADO AND THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE HEAVIEST  
RAINFALL IS FORECAST NORTH OF THE WGRFC AREA. MAP AMOUNTS OF LESS  
THAN 0.25 OF AN INCH ARE FORECAST OVER PARTS OF EAST AND NORTHEAST  
TEXAS, THE NORTHERN HALF OF NEW MEXICO, THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND THE  
REMAINDER OF COLORADO.  
 
FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING, MAP AMOUNTS OF 0.25 TO 0.50 OF  
AN INCH ARE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF TEXAS AND THE  
NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF LOUISIANA. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS FORECAST  
NORTHEAST OF THE WGRFC AREA NORTH OF THE ARKLATEX. MAP AMOUNTS OF  
LESS THAN 0.25 OF AN INCH ARE FORECAST OVER ROUGHLY THE NORTHEAST  
THIRD OF TEXAS, LOUISIANA, THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTHERN  
THIRD OF NEW MEXICO AND MOST OF COLORADO.  
 
FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING, MAP AMOUNTS OF 0.25 TO 0.50 OF AN  
INCH ARE FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME NORTH AND NORTHEAST TEXAS,  
AS WELL AS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO.  
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS FORECAST NORTH OF THE WGRFC AREA OVER  
OKLAHOMA. MAP AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN 0.25 OF AN INCH ARE FORECAST  
OVER ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF TEXAS, MOST OF LOUISIANA, AND THE  
NORTHWESTERN TWO THIRDS OF NEW MEXICO.  
 
SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW IMPROVEMENT DUE TO RECENT  
RAINFALL EVENTS. THE LATEST U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR FOR TEXAS SHOWS THE  
AREA CONSIDERED TO BE ABNORMALLY DRY AT 10%. ALSO, 2% OF TEXAS WAS  
EXPERIENCING MODERATE DROUGHT, WITH NOTHING IN SEVERE DROUGHT. IN  
NEW MEXICO THE DROUGHT MONITOR SHOWS 46% OF THE STATE EXPERIENCING  
ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS, WITH NOTHING IN THE MODERATE DROUGHT  
CATEGORY OR WORSE CATEGORIES. THE RAINFALL FORECAST WILL NOT BE  
HEAVY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF IN THE WGRFC AREA THE NEXT  
5 DAYS.  
 
...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...   
..WGRFC BASINS
 
 
HIGHER THAN NORMAL FLOWS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE BRAZOS AND  
RIO GRANDE RIVER SYSTEMS INTO THIS WEEK. PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST  
ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO AND NORTHEAST TEXAS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.  
WGRFC WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION.  
 
...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...  
THE FOLLOWING URLS (ALL LOWER CASE) PROVIDE ADDITIONAL GRAPHICAL  
INFORMATION ON CURRENT AND FORECAST HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS, PAST AND  
FUTURE PRECIPITATION, AND DROUGHT AND CLIMATE FORECASTS. THIS  
INFORMATION IS PROVIDED BY A VARIETY OF NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE,  
NOAA, AND PRIVATE SECTOR ENTITIES.  
 
FOR SPECIFIC INFORMATION ON RIVER CONDITIONS, REFER TO THE AHPS  
PAGES FROM THE LOCAL NWS OFFICES AT:  
HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/  
 
THE FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK CAN BE VIEWED ON OUR WEBPAGE AT:  
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/WGRFC/WGRFCFOP  
 
THE WEST GULF RIVER FORECAST CENTER IS NOW ON FACEBOOK:  
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSWESTGULF  
 
NATIONAL PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS:  
HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/PRECIP/  
 
THE FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS (QPF) CAN BE VIEWED ON OUR WEBPAGE AT:  
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/WGRFC/WGRFCQPFPAGE  
 
THE US DROUGHT ASSESSMENT:  
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/DROUGHT  
 
THE LATEST ON RESERVOIR INFORMATION FOR TEXAS:  
HTTP://WWW.WATERDATAFORTEXAS.ORG/RESERVOIRS/STATEWIDE  
 
STORY  
 

 
 
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