835  
AGUS74 KFWR 181532  
HMDFWR  
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX  
1032 AM CDT MON SEP 18 2017  
 
VALID SEPTEMBER 18 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 23  
   
..HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK
 
 
...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...  
 
A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED ACROSS  
PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING, HAS  
WEAKENED AND MOVED EASTWARD. ADDITIONALLY, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS THE  
UPPER TEXAS COAST. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE  
AFTERNOON HOURS, BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE ANY RIVER ISSUES.  
OVERALL, RAINFALL CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT  
FIVE DAYS.  
 
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE  
WGRFC REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, MEANING VERY DRY AND HOT  
CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART. LATER ON IN THE WEEK, MOISTURE  
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM NORMA, IS EXPECTED  
TO INTERACT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT. THIS  
WILL LIKELY BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION TO THE WESTERN PORTIONS  
OF THE WGRFC REGION THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  
 
THE TROPICS CONTINUE TO REMAIN VERY ACTIVE, WITH 3 NAMED STORMS  
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. HURRICANE MARIA IS NOW A  
CATEGORY 3 STORM ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE AND  
CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH. AT THIS  
TIME, THESE SYSTEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT ANY PORTION OF  
THE WGRFC REGION.  
 
...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...  
FOR TODAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING, MEAN AREAL PRECIPITATION (MAP)  
AMOUNTS OF 0.25 INCH OR LESS ARE FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF  
SOUTHEAST TEXAS.  
 
FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, MAP AMOUNTS OF 0.25 INCH  
OR LESS ARE FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.  
 
FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING, NO SIGNIFICANT MAP AMOUNTS ARE  
FORECAST FOR THE WGRFC AREA.  
 
FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING, MAP AMOUNTS OF UP TO 1.00 INCH  
ARE FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF COLORADO, NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS.  
 
THE LATEST U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR FOR TEXAS SHOWS THE AREA CONSIDERED  
TO BE ABNORMALLY DRY IS AROUND 8%, AND ONLY 1% OF TEXAS IS  
EXPERIENCING MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS. IN NEW MEXICO, NONE OF  
THE STATE IS EXPERIENCING ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS. THE RAINFALL  
WHICH IS FORECAST THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WILL NOT BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO  
CREATE RUNOFF.  
 
...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...   
..SABINE BASIN
 
   
..MINOR FLOODING
 
 
TOLEDO BEND RESERVOIR IS CURRENTLY GENERATING POWER, THEREBY  
RELEASING WATER INTO THE LOWER SABINE RIVER. THIS IS EXPECTED TO  
CONTINUE INTO THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. THIS HAS BROUGHT THE LOWER  
SABINE RIVER AT DEWEYVILLE (DWYT2) RIGHT TO FLOOD STAGE, WITH ONLY  
MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING.  
   
..RIO GRANDE BASIN
 
   
..HIGHER FLOW NON-FLOOD FORECASTS
 
 
THE REACH AT CANDELARIA (CDET2) REMAINS ABOVE SEASONAL  
NORMALS DUE TO UPSTREAM RELEASES AND IS EXPECTED TO  
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE MONTH. THERE  
MAY BE SOME FLASH FLOOD EVENTS THIS WEEK DOWNSTREAM OF  
EL PASO DOWN TO BOQUILLAS DUE TO TROPICAL MOISTURE. IN  
ADDITION, THE RESERVOIRS ON THE RIO CONCHOS ARE FULL FOR  
THIS TIME OF YEAR, SO THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED  
INCREASES IN FLOW IF THERE IS WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN ON THE  
RIO CONCHOS BASIN.  
   
..REMAINDER OF WGRFC BASINS
 
 
OTHER THAN PORTIONS OF WESTERN TEXAS AND ESPECIALLY WESTERN  
PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS, RIVERS ARE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR  
THIS TIME OF YEAR. NO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS EXPECTED OVER  
THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.  
 
...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...  
THE FOLLOWING URLS (ALL LOWER CASE) PROVIDE ADDITIONAL GRAPHICAL  
INFORMATION ON CURRENT AND FORECAST HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS, PAST AND  
FUTURE PRECIPITATION, AND DROUGHT AND CLIMATE FORECASTS. THIS  
INFORMATION IS PROVIDED BY A VARIETY OF NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE,  
NOAA, AND PRIVATE SECTOR ENTITIES.  
 
FOR SPECIFIC INFORMATION ON RIVER CONDITIONS, REFER TO THE AHPS  
PAGES FROM THE LOCAL NWS OFFICES AT:  
HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/  
 
THE FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK CAN BE VIEWED ON OUR WEBPAGE AT:  
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/WGRFC/WGRFCFOP  
 
THE WEST GULF RIVER FORECAST CENTER IS NOW ON FACEBOOK:  
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSWESTGULF  
 
NATIONAL PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS:  
HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/PRECIP/  
 
THE FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS (QPF) CAN BE VIEWED ON OUR WEBPAGE AT:  
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/WGRFC/WGRFCQPFPAGE  
 
THE US DROUGHT ASSESSMENT:  
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/DROUGHT  
 
THE LATEST ON RESERVOIR INFORMATION FOR TEXAS:  
HTTP://WWW.WATERDATAFORTEXAS.ORG/RESERVOIRS/STATEWIDE  
 
MCCANTS  
 

 
 
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