398  
AGUS74 KFWR 271611  
HMDFWR  
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX  
1111 AM CDT MON MAR 27 2017  
 
VALID MARCH 27 THROUGH APRIL 1  
 
...ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL EXPECTED MID-WEEK AND AGAIN LATE THIS  
WEEKEND FOR MOST OF THE WGRFC AREA...  
 
...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...  
 
A STORM SYSTEM IS MOVING ACROSS KANSAS THIS MORNING. AS THIS SYSTEM  
APPROACHED A DRYLINE BECAME ACTIVE AND BROUGHT SHOWERS AND SOME  
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. RAIN AND SNOW ALSO  
FELL OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN NEW  
MEXICO AND COLORADO. UP TO 2.00 INCHES OF RAIN OCCURRED OVER EXTREME  
NORTH TEXAS NEAR SANGER AND GORDONVILLE.  
 
NOW THAT THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST, DRIER WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE  
FOR OUR REGION TODAY. BUT BY TUESDAY MORNING WE WILL SEE THE RETURN  
OF GULF MOISTURE AND THE APPROACH OF A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM. A  
CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO FORM NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS  
REGION AND WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE WGRFC AREA.  
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECAST OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AND  
SOUTHERN COLORADO TUESDAY. FURTHER EAST, WEST TEXAS MAY SEE  
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE STORM ACTIVITY FROM THIS SYSTEM BY TUESDAY  
AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN 1 TO 1.50 INCHES OF RAINFALL BY WEDNESDAY  
MORNING. AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWLY SLIDES EASTWARD, WIDESPREAD  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY  
ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS, AND EVENTUALLY INTO EAST TEXAS AND  
WESTERN LOUISIANA WEDNESDAY EVENING. THESE AREAS COULD SEE 2 TO 3  
INCHES OF RAIN BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY.  
THEN AS THIS LOW PASSES ACROSS KANSAS THURSDAY THERE MAY BE SOME  
WRAP-AROUND RAIN OVER EXTREME NORTH TEXAS, BUT OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER  
WILL RETURN TO THE WGRFC AREA.  
 
A QUICK BREAK FROM THE PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE FOR LATE THURSDAY  
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. BUT ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP  
WEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BEGIN  
TO SPREAD RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOWS TO SOUTHERN COLORADO BY  
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THEN THIS STORM SYSTEM IS  
FORECAST TO MOVE OVER NEW MEXICO AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO TEXAS BEYOND THIS FIVE-DAY FORECAST PERIOD LATE  
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.  
 
...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...  
FOR TODAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING, NO SIGNIFICANT MEAN AREAL  
PRECIPITATION (MAP) AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST FOR THE WGRFC AREA. MAP  
AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN 0.25 OF AN INCH ARE FORECAST FROM NORTHWEST  
NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO, AS WELL AS OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST  
TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA.  
 
FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, MAP AMOUNTS OF 0.25 OF AN INCH  
OR MORE ARE FORECAST OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN TEXAS INTO NORTHEAST  
NEW MEXICO AND MOST OF COLORADO. THE HEAVIEST RAIN, WITH MAP  
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 1.50 INCHES, ARE FORECAST OVER CENTRAL TEXAS NEAR  
SAN ANGELO. EVEN HEAVIER RAIN IS FORECAST OVER OKLAHOMA NORTH OF OUR  
REGION. MAP AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN 0.25 OF AN INCH ARE FORECAST  
OVER MOST OF THE WGRFC AREA EXCEPT FOR EAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA AND  
PARTS OF FAR WEST TEXAS.  
 
FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING, MAP AMOUNTS OF 0.25 OF AN INCH  
OR MORE ARE FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA,  
AND FROM NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO THE  
NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE HEAVIEST RAIN, WITH MAP AMOUNTS OF UP  
TO 2 INCHES, ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EAST TEXAS NEAR LUFKIN. EVEN  
HEAVIER RAIN IS FORECAST OVER LOUISIANA EAST OF OUR REGION. MAP  
AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN 0.25 OF AN INCH ARE FORECAST OVER MOST OF THE  
WGRFC AREA EXCEPT FOR SOUTHWEST TEXAS.  
 
FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING, MAP AMOUNTS OF 0.25 OF AN INCH  
OR MORE ARE FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO. MAP AMOUNTS OF LESS  
THAN 0.25 OF AN INCH ARE FORECAST FROM NORTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO  
COLORADO, AS WELL AS OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA.  
 
UNSEASONABLY WARM, DRY CONDITIONS SO FAR THIS MARCH HAVE CAUSED  
CONTINUED SOIL MOISTURE LOSS. THIS IS INDICATED IN THE CURRENT  
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR FOR TEXAS WHICH SHOWED THE AREA CONSIDERED  
TO BE ABNORMALLY DRY AT 47%. ALSO, 9% OF TEXAS WAS EXPERIENCING  
MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND 1% WAS IN SEVERE DROUGHT. IN NEW  
MEXICO THE DROUGHT MONITOR SHOWS 56% OF THE STATE EXPERIENCING  
ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS, WITH AROUND 7% IN THE MODERATE DROUGHT  
CATEGORY. THE RAINFALL FORECAST THE NEXT FIVE DAYS MAY GENERATE  
SOME MINOR RUNOFF OVER EAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA, BUT DUE TO  
THE DRY TOPSOILS NO SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.  
 
...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...   
..WGRFC BASINS
 
 
HEAVY RAINFALL IS FORECAST ACROSS PARTS OF TEXAS LATE  
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AND AT THE END OF THE 5 DAY FORECAST PERIOD. WGRFC  
IS MONITORING THIS SITUATION. BUT FOR NOW RIVERS ARE AT OR NEAR  
BASEFLOW CONDITIONS.  
 
...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...  
THE FOLLOWING URLS (ALL LOWER CASE) PROVIDE ADDITIONAL GRAPHICAL  
INFORMATION ON CURRENT AND FORECAST HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS, PAST AND  
FUTURE PRECIPITATION, AND DROUGHT AND CLIMATE FORECASTS. THIS  
INFORMATION IS PROVIDED BY A VARIETY OF NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE,  
NOAA, AND PRIVATE SECTOR ENTITIES.  
 
FOR SPECIFIC INFORMATION ON RIVER CONDITIONS, REFER TO THE AHPS  
PAGES FROM THE LOCAL NWS OFFICES AT:  
HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/  
 
THE FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK CAN BE VIEWED ON OUR WEBPAGE AT:  
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/WGRFC/WGRFCFOP  
 
THE WEST GULF RIVER FORECAST CENTER IS NOW ON FACEBOOK:  
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSWESTGULF  
 
NATIONAL PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS:  
HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/PRECIP/  
 
THE FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS (QPF) CAN BE VIEWED ON OUR WEBPAGE AT:  
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/WGRFC/WGRFCQPFPAGE  
 
THE US DROUGHT ASSESSMENT:  
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/DROUGHT  
 
THE LATEST ON RESERVOIR INFORMATION FOR TEXAS:  
HTTP://WWW.WATERDATAFORTEXAS.ORG/RESERVOIRS/STATEWIDE  
 
STORY  
 

 
 
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