386
AGUS74 KFWR 281619
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1019 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2009
VALID NOVEMBER 28 THROUGH DECEMBER 3
...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED THROUGH THE WGRFC AREA AND
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA. THIS
WEAK DISTURBANCE IS PRODUCED SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE RIO
GRANDE BASIN BUT THE PRECIPITATION HAS SINCE MOVED THROUGH TEXAS AND
NO MORE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
A MORE ORGANIZED STORM SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY SLIDING DOWN SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA THAT MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER PORTIONS OF
NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS
STORM WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EASTWARD AS THE LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE BORDER OF MEXICO AND ARIZONA.
ON SUNDAY, DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM, ALONG WITH THE LARGE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE
WILL PRODUCE SOME PRECIPITATION OVER MOST OF NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHERN
COLORADO. ADDITIONALLY, PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER
EASTERN TEXAS AS THE GULF ONSHORE FLOW INTERACTS WITH THE COLD FRONT
PUSHING INTO THE AREA.
MOVING INTO MONDAY, AS THE FRONT PUSHES MORE TOWARDS THE GULF COAST,
THE PRECIPITATION ALONG EASTERN TEXAS WILL INCREASE EXTENDING ALL
THE WAY DOWN THROUGH MEXICO WITH MOIST AIR BEING BROUGHT IN FROM THE
PACIFIC. THIS WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION THROUGH SOUTHERN
TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ALONG THE BORDER TOWARDS
WEST TEXAS.
TUESDAY WILL SEE THE CONTINUED PROGRESSION OF THIS PATTERN, WITH THE
MAXIMUM LEVELS OF PRECIPITATION PUSHING ONTO OR JUST OFF THE COAST
WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE NORTHEAST OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL STILL CREATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND NORTHERN TEXAS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. THIS LOW PICKS UP SOME MOMENTUM AND PUSHES INTO
SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS BY TUESDAY EVENING.
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS SEE THE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE TEXAS AREA
LATER WEDNESDAY, NOT PRODUCING MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
BACKSIDE AS MUCH COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. BY THURSDAY
MORNING, PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE COMPLETELY PUSHED THROUGH WITH A
LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DOMINATING THE WEATHER FOR MOST OF
THE WGRFC REGION.
...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
FOR TODAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING, AMOUNTS OF LIGHT MEAN AREAL
PRECIPITATION (MAP) AROUND 0.25 OF AN INCH ARE FORECASTED FOR
NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHERN COLORADO IN THE WGRFC AREA. THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME PEAK MAP OF 0.50 INCHES IN SOME OF THESE
AREAS. ALL OF NEW MEXICO CAN EXPECT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
THROUGHOUT THE EVENING INTO SUNDAY.
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING, MAP AMOUNTS ARE FORECASTED FOR THE
ENTIRE WGRFC DOMAIN, WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OF 1.00 INCH
EXPECTED FOR FAR EASTERN TEXAS. THE PRIMARY MAP CONCERN WITH 0.50
INCHES FORECASTED FROM CORPUS CRISTI WEST TO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE,
NORTH THROUGH THE DALLAS AREA EXTENDING EAST INTO LOUISIANA. THE
ENTIRE RIO GRANDE BASIN OF TEXAS CAN EXPECT UP TO 0.25 INCHES OF MAP
WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR THE REST OF THE WGRFC FORECAST AREA.
FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING, MAP AMOUNTS OF 2.00 INCHES ARE
FORECASTED FOR THE COAST BETWEEN CORPUS CRISTI AND HOUSTON,
DECREASING AS YOU MOVE AWAY FROM THE GULF. THE 1.00 INCH MAP IS
FORECASTED AS FAR WEST AS SAN ANTONIO FOLLOWING THE COAST NORTHEAST
INTO SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. MAP IS SHOWING 0.50 INCHES OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LOWER RIO GRANDE IN WEST TEXAS,
HOWEVER DOES NOT EXTEND AS FAR NORTH ON THE EASTERN PORTION OF TEXAS
WHERE THE PRECIPITATION INTENSITY DECREASES QUICKLY AWAY FROM THE
COAST. LIGHT PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE
DALLAS AREA EXTENDING WEST THROUGH THE WGRFC REGION.
FOR TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING, MAP AMOUNTS OF 1.00 INCH ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PORTION OF TEXAS, WITH THE
MAJORITY OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AROUND 0.25 INCHES EXPECTED
FOR THE ENTIRE EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE. LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS
FORECASTED FOR THE ENTIRE STATE AS WELL AS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD MAY GENERATE MODERATE
AMOUNTS OF RUNOFF INTO THE RIVERS OVER EAST AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
WESTERN LOUISIANA. THIS RUNOFF MAY GENERATE SOME MINOR TO MODERATE
FLOODING IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS IN AREAS THAT HAVE RECENTLY HAD FLOODING
INCIDENTS.
...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
..SABINE BASIN
..MINOR FLOODING
MINOR FLOODING WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AT THE
SABINE RIVER NEAR DEWEYVILLE (DWYT2), PRIMARILY DUE TO CONTROLLED
RELEASE FROM TOLEDO BEND. MODERATE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE
BASIN EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT ONLY ISOLATED OUT OF BANK TO MINOR
FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO RESULT AT THIS TIME.
..GUADALUPE BASIN
BASEFLOW CONDITIONS FOR THE RIVER ARE RELATIVELY HIGH FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR DUE TO THE RECENT HEAVY RAINS. WITH ANOTHER RAIN EVENT
FORECASTED FOR THIS WEEKEND, EXPECT ADDITIONAL RISES IN BASINS THAT
SEE HEAVY RAIN.
..REMAINDER OF WGRFC BASINS
ALL OTHER RIVERS IN THE WGRFC AREA ARE AT OR NEAR BASE FLOW; HOWEVER,
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND
MOVE INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF TEXAS THROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
AREAS THAT SEE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL RESPOND AND GENERATE
MINOR FLOOD WAVES ALONG THE RIVER SYSTEMS. NO MAJOR FLOODING IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME, BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
SITUATION.
...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
THE FOLLOWING URLS (ALL LOWER CASE) PROVIDE ADDITIONAL GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION ON CURRENT AND FORECAST HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS, PAST AND
FUTURE PRECIPITATION, AND DROUGHT AND CLIMATE FORECASTS. THIS
INFORMATION IS PROVIDED BY A VARIETY OF NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE,
NOAA, AND PRIVATE SECTOR ENTITIES.
FOR SPECIFIC INFORMATION ON RIVER CONDITIONS, REFER TO THE AHPS
PAGES FROM THE LOCAL NWS OFFICES AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/RIVERS_TAB.PHP
THE FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK CAN BE VIEWED ON OUR WEBPAGE AT:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/?N=WGRFCFOP
NATIONAL PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/RFCSHARE/PRECIP_ANALYSIS_NEW.PHP
THE FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS (QPF) CAN BE VIEWED ON OUR WEBPAGE AT:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/?N=WGRFCQPFPAGE
THE US DROUGHT ASSESSMENT:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/EXPERT_ASSESSMENT/DROUGHT_ASSESSMENT.SHTML
GIARDINO
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