773  
AGUS74 KFWR 281613  
HMDFWR  
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX  
1113 AM CDT SUN MAY 28 2017  
 
VALID MAY 28 THROUGH JUNE 2  
   
..WET WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS
 
 
 
...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...  
AS OF LATE THIS SUNDAY MORNING AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED  
OVER WESTERN KANSAS, AND A COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED THE NORTHWESTERN  
HALF OF TEXAS. IN ADVANCE OF THIS COLD FRONT, RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.5  
TO 1.5 INCHES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN  
TEXAS. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING TOWARDS THE  
COAST, AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN  
ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT FROM EAST TEXAS WHERE STORMS ARE ALREADY  
UNDERWAY TO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN  
AT SOME TIME TODAY AND STALL SOMEWHERE NORTH OF THE TEXAS COAST  
OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED TO  
PRODUCE A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THREAT FROM THE HILL COUNTRY AND  
SOUTH TEXAS ALL THE WAY TO EASTERN TEXAS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.  
 
THERE WILL BE CONTINUED RAINY WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE COMING WEEK  
ACROSS PORTIONS OF TEXAS, NEW MEXICO, AND COLORADO AS ADDITIONAL  
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE OVER THE REGION. WGRFC  
FORECASTERS WILL BE MONITORING RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND POTENTIAL  
FLOODING THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AND THE COMING WEEK.  
 
...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...  
FOR TODAY INTO MONDAY MORNING, MEAN AREAL PRECIPITATION (MAP)  
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND  
EASTERN TEXAS. MAP AMOUNTS OF 0.25 TO 1 INCH ARE FORECAST FOR THE  
REST OF SOUTHERN, CENTRAL, AND EASTERN TEXAS.  
 
FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING, MAP AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE  
FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND COASTAL TEXAS. MAP AMOUNTS OF  
0.25 TO 1 INCH ARE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE REST OF SOUTHERN,  
SOUTHWESTERN, AND EASTERN TEXAS. LESSER MAP AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST FOR  
PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHERN COLORADO.  
 
FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, MAP AMOUNTS OF 0.25 TO 1 INCH  
ARE FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN, SOUTHWESTERN, AND COASTAL  
TEXAS. LESSER MAP AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN  
TWO THIRDS OF TEXAS AND FOR NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHERN COLORADO.  
 
FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING, MAP AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE  
FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS. MAP AMOUNTS OF  
0.25 TO 1 INCH ARE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE REST OF TEXAS. LESSER  
MAP AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST FOR NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHERN COLORADO.  
 
SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS HAVE REBOUNDED DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD  
RAINFALL WHICH FELL LAST WEEKEND. THE LAST U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR FOR  
TEXAS SHOWS THE AREA CONSIDERED TO BE ABNORMALLY DRY IS DOWN TO 22%.  
AND, ONLY 2% OF TEXAS WAS EXPERIENCING MODERATE DROUGHT WITH LESS  
THAN 1% OF THE STATE IN SEVERE DROUGHT. IN NEW MEXICO, 24% OF THE  
STATE IS EXPERIENCING ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH 7% OF THE STATE  
IN THE MODERATE DROUGHT CATEGORY. THE RAINFALL THE NEXT FIVE DAYS  
MAY BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF OVER THE SOUTHWEST  
TEXAS AND THE HILL COUNTRY RIVERS, AND POSSIBLY COASTAL AND  
NORTHEASTERN TEXAS RIVER BASINS.  
 
...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...   
..WGRFC BASINS
 
 
ACTION STAGE TO MINOR FLOODING ON THE NECHES RIVER SYSTEM IS SLOWLY  
ENDING WILL ALL LOCATIONS EITHER CRESTING OR FALLING. MORE RAINFALL  
IS EXPECTED IN THE WGRFC REGION THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH POTENTIALLY  
HIGHER AMOUNTS THAT WILL LIKELY TAKE MANY LOCATIONS OVER FLOOD STAGE  
AND A FEW POSSIBLY INTO MODERATE FLOOD LEVEL. LATEST AREA WITH GREATEST  
LIKELIHOOD OF SEEING HIGHER THAN NORMAL FLOWS ARE SOUTHERN COASTAL  
PLAIN, LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND EAST TEXAS, ESPECIALLY THE NECHES  
RIVER.  
 
...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...  
THE FOLLOWING URLS (ALL LOWER CASE) PROVIDE ADDITIONAL GRAPHICAL  
INFORMATION ON CURRENT AND FORECAST HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS, PAST AND  
FUTURE PRECIPITATION, AND DROUGHT AND CLIMATE FORECASTS. THIS  
INFORMATION IS PROVIDED BY A VARIETY OF NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE,  
NOAA, AND PRIVATE SECTOR ENTITIES.  
 
FOR SPECIFIC INFORMATION ON RIVER CONDITIONS, REFER TO THE AHPS  
PAGES FROM THE LOCAL NWS OFFICES AT:  
HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/  
 
THE FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK CAN BE VIEWED ON OUR WEBPAGE AT:  
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/WGRFC/WGRFCFOP  
 
THE WEST GULF RIVER FORECAST CENTER IS NOW ON FACEBOOK:  
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSWESTGULF  
 
NATIONAL PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS:  
HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/PRECIP/  
 
THE FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS (QPF) CAN BE VIEWED ON OUR WEBPAGE AT:  
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/WGRFC/WGRFCQPFPAGE  
 
THE US DROUGHT ASSESSMENT:  
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/DROUGHT  
 
THE LATEST ON RESERVOIR INFORMATION FOR TEXAS:  
HTTP://WWW.WATERDATAFORTEXAS.ORG/RESERVOIRS/STATEWIDE  
 
PHILPOTT  
 

 
 
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