785  
FGUS64 KTUA 141641  
ESGSGF  
 
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE  
ARKANSAS-RED BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER, TULSA, OK  
1139 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2018  
 
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL  
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES  
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.  
 
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY  
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.  
 
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY  
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.  
 
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF  
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS  
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER  
THAN NORMAL.  
   
..TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING
 
 
VALID 06/14/2018 - 09/12/2018  
 
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES  
: OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES  
: AS A PERCENTAGE(%)  
CATEGORICAL :  
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR  
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS  
-------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----  
 
:SPRING RIVER  
CHTM7 10.0 14.0 20.0 <5 15 <5 <5 <5 <5  
WCOM7 19.0 30.0 33.0 8 15 <5 <5 <5 <5  
BXTK1 14.0 22.0 30.0 5 9 <5 <5 <5 <5  
 
:SHOAL CREEK  
JOPM7 11.5 16.0 18.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
 
:ELK RIVER  
TIFM7 15.0 20.0 25.0 <5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5  
 
LEGEND  
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)  
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION  
FT = FEET  
 
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE  
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID  
TIME PERIOD.  
   
..TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
 
 
.B TUA 0614 Z DH12 /DC201806141639/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZXT  
.B1 /HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH/HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF  
 
: CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
: VALID 06/14/2018 - 09/12/2018  
:  
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%  
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---  
:SPRING RIVER  
CHTM7 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.2/ 3.6/ 4.6/ 8.0/ 8.8  
WCOM7 1.7/ 2.1/ 3.5/ 5.9/ 8.8/ 17.6/ 22.7  
BXTK1 3.2/ 3.4/ 4.4/ 4.9/ 6.6/ 11.2/ 14.4  
 
:SHOAL CREEK  
JOPM7 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.3/ 3.2/ 5.0/ 7.2  
 
:ELK RIVER  
TIFM7 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.1/ 4.3/ 5.8/ 9.5/ 13.3  
 
:LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED MONTHLY  
:THROUGHOUT THE YEAR.  
 
.END  
 

 
 
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