705  
FGUS64 KTUA 141613  
ESGSHV  
 
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE  
ARKANSAS-RED BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER, TULSA, OK  
1112 AM CDT THU SEP 14 2017  
 
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL  
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES  
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.  
 
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY  
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.  
 
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY  
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.  
 
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF  
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS  
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER  
THAN NORMAL.  
   
..TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING
 
 
VALID 09/14/2017 - 12/13/2017  
 
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES  
: OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES  
: AS A PERCENTAGE(%)  
CATEGORICAL :  
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR  
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS  
-------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----  
 
:RED RIVER  
DEKT2 24.0 27.0 30.0 28 18 19 9 11 <5  
INGA4 25.0 26.0 28.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
FLTA4 27.0 30.0 32.5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
 
:GLOVER RIVER  
GLOO2 16.0 19.0 22.0 23 22 15 14 8 6  
 
:LITTLE RIVER  
IDBO2 30.0 32.0 34.0 36 21 13 9 <5 <5  
HRGA4 27.0 28.5 30.0 21 12 16 9 12 6  
 
LEGEND  
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)  
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION  
FT = FEET  
 
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE  
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID  
TIME PERIOD.  
   
..TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
 
 
.B TUA 0914 Z DH12 /DC201709141612/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZXT  
.B1 /HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH/HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF  
 
: CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
: VALID 09/14/2017 - 12/13/2017  
:  
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%  
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---  
:RED RIVER  
DEKT2 11.2/ 11.7/ 15.7/ 18.6/ 24.9/ 30.4/ 32.6  
INGA4 2.2/ 2.6/ 5.7/ 8.2/ 15.0/ 20.9/ 23.0  
FLTA4 3.3/ 3.3/ 4.7/ 7.6/ 14.1/ 19.5/ 20.8  
 
:GLOVER RIVER  
GLOO2 5.3/ 5.7/ 6.7/ 12.9/ 15.5/ 21.0/ 23.5  
 
:LITTLE RIVER  
IDBO2 13.0/ 13.0/ 18.0/ 28.7/ 31.1/ 32.3/ 33.0  
HRGA4 10.7/ 10.7/ 14.4/ 19.9/ 25.9/ 30.8/ 32.6  
 
:LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED MONTHLY  
:THROUGHOUT THE YEAR.  
 
.END  
 

 
 
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