606
NGUS81 KTAR 070135
HCMTAR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL COORDINATION MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER...TAUNTON...MA
835 PM EST TUE JAN 06 2009
PRECIPITATION IS STEADILY MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION THIS
EVENING. THE DISORGANIZED INITIAL RADAR RETURNS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
AND MUCH OF NEW YORK AT 01Z...AS VERIFIED BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...
ARE INDICATING MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION IS ALOFT. LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL WORK NORTH
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE WEDNESDAY AND A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL LIKELY RIPPLE ALONG IT...PASSING NEAR CAPE COD BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING.
:
WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE...MUCH OF THE NERFC SERVICE AREA WILL SEE SNOW
OR A MIX OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF NEW YORK STATE...ANY SNOW
WILL QUICKLY CHANGE TO SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND EVENTUALLY RAIN BY
TOMORROW MORNING. WE EXPECT THE FREEZING LINE TO HAVE A BIT OF TROUBLE
MOVING VERY FAR INLAND OVER THE COLD SNOWPACK SINCE WINDS ACROSS
INTERIOR SECTIONS SHOULD HAVE MORE OF A NORTHERLY COMPONENT.
:
WE RAN QPF OUT 48 HOURS THIS EVENING TO CAPTURE THE ENTIRE
PRECIPITATION EVENT. A WIDESPREAD 0.50 TO 1.00 INCHES OF BASIN AVERAGE
MELTED EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY
ACROSS THE NERFC SERVICE AREA...WITH 1.00 TO 1.50 INCHES POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND CLOSEST TO THE
WARM FRONT.
:
SINCE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FROZEN/FREEZING.
..VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RIVER RISES ARE FORECAST EXCEPT ACROSS
COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THERE...WE EXPECT SOME RISES
ACROSS THE FOLLOWING RIVERS: CHARLES...BLACKSTONE...TAUNTON...PAWTUXET
AND YANTIC RIVERS. THE HIGHEST RISES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE PAWTUXET
RIVER IN RHODE ISLAND WHERE THE RIVER COULD RISE SEVERAL FEET. RIGHT
NOW...NO FLOODING IS BEING FORECAST.
REGIONAL Z/R COEFFICIENTS
RADAR LATEST TIME A B
BUF 2009/01/07 01:00 130 2
BGM 2009/01/07 01:00 130 2
TYX 2009/01/07 01:00 130 2
ENX 2009/01/07 01:00 130 2
CXX 2009/01/07 01:00 130 2
OKX 2009/01/07 01:00 130 2
BOX 2009/01/07 01:00 130 2
GYX 2009/01/07 01:00 130 2
CBW 2009/01/07 01:00 130 2
NERFC FORECAST OPERATIONS TEAM:
:
EVENING FORECASTER: ED CAPONE
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