954  
NGUS86 KRSA 221945  
HCMRSA  
 
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL COORDINATION MESSAGE  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CALIFORNIA NEVADA RFC / SACRAMENTO CA  
130 PM PST WED NOV 22 2017  
   
..PRECIP NW CA/SRN OR THROUGH EARLY FRI
 
   
..MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP EXPECTED SAT INTO MONDAY
 
 
   
METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (SHORT TERM: WED AM - SAT AM)
 
 
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON ISSUANCE.  
LIGHT PRECIP CONTINUES IN NW CA THIS AFTERNOON TO THE EAST OF A WEAK  
COLD FRONT. WE DID INCREASE AMOUNTS A SLIGHT BIT IN THE SMITH BASIN  
FOR TONIGHT WITH ECMWF/GEM/HRRR HINTING AT HEAVIER AMOUNTS BUT  
NAM/SREF/GFS ON THE DRIER SIDE. EXPECT OVERALL AMOUNTS THROUGH  
EARLY FRI TO REMAIN LIGHT WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER TOTALS TOWARD THE  
SMITH BASIN. ECMWF/NAM LINGER LIGHT AMOUNTS IN NW CA LONGER THAN  
OTHER MODELS, AND FOR NOW OUR FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE. CONSISTENCY  
WAS A BIT BETTER FOR LATE FRI NIGHT, AND NO CHANGES WERE WARRANTED.  
   
METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (LONG TERM: SAT AM - TUE AM)
 
 
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST WITH CONFIDENCE STILL FAIRLY  
LOW IN EXACT TIMING AND AMOUNTS DUE TO MODEL VARIABILITY. THE 12Z EC  
IS EVEN FARTHER NORTH AND SLOWER ON SATURDAY DELAYING THE PRECIP IN  
NW CA UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GFS AND GEM STILL  
SIMILAR IN THE QUICKER TIMING BUT HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE GFS.  
INCREASED AMOUNTS A LITTLE AROUND CAPE MENDOCINO AND NORTH SAT  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 12Z EC IS SLOWER AND DEEPER THAN 00Z RUN AND  
12Z GFS AND GEM WITH THE TROUGH AND MOVING IT TO THE EAST. THE EC  
LINGERS PRECIP OVER FAR NRN CA AND NEVADA MONDAY NIGHT.  
 
QPF GRAPHICS ARE AVAILABLE AT HTTP://WWW.CNRFC.NOAA.GOV/QPF.PHP  
 
*********************** CONTACT INFORMATION ************************  
 
CNRFC OFFICE HOURS PHONE: 1 (916) 979-3056 EXTENSION 330  
AFTER-HOURS CALLING SERVICE: 1 (800) 218-0858  
LEAVE NAME...OFFICE...AND PHONE NUMBER  
 
LERMAN/OSBORNE  
 

 
 
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