219  
ACUS03 KWNS 300729  
SWODY3  
SPC AC 300728  
 
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0228 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016  
 
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z  
 
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN AND  
CNTRL PLAINS...  
 
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS  
AND FAR SE VA...  
 
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN MT AND FAR  
NW ND...  
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE  
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE  
SOUTHERN PLAINS...CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A FEW  
MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE CAROLINAS  
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ON SATURDAY.  
   
..SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS
 
 
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES ON  
SATURDAY AS A SLOW MOVING FRONT REMAINS IN PLACE FROM THE TX  
PANHANDLE EXTENDING ENEWD ACROSS NW OK INTO SE KS. A MOIST AIRMASS  
IS FORECAST ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN  
THE 60S F FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO NRN OK AND SE KS. THIS SHOULD  
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG THIS  
CORRIDOR WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TAKING PLACE IN THE  
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z/SAT FROM  
AMARILLO TX ENEWD TO NEAR WICHITA KS SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY...0-6  
KM SHEAR IN THE 25 TO 35 KT RANGE WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES  
SUGGESTING MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.  
   
..CAROLINAS
 
 
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE ERN SEABOARD ON  
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES SSEWD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC  
REGION AND INTO THE CAROLINAS. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...A MOIST AIRMASS  
SHOULD BE IN PLACE WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F  
WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY BY  
AFTERNOON. AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG THE  
FRONT...CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS FORECAST TO TAKE PLACE IN THE LATE  
AFTERNOON AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BECOME STEEP. THIS COMBINED WITH  
VEERED LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND 25 TO 30 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MAY BE  
ENOUGH FOR A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGER  
MULTICELLS.  
   
..NRN HIGH PLAINS
 
 
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS ON  
SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES. AT THE  
SFC...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE EWD ACROSS CNTRL MT WITH A  
DEEPENING SFC LOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN ERN MT. THUNDERSTORMS MAY  
DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE SFC LOW  
ACROSS NERN MT WHERE MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST AND  
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR HAIL AND  
STRONG WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THIS SCENARIO IS  
SUBSTANTIAL DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW MUCH  
INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP. FOR THIS REASON...WILL KEEP THE THREAT  
LEVEL AT A MARGINAL RISK IN NE MT AND FAR NW ND FOR LATE AFTERNOON  
AND EARLY EVENING.  
 
..BROYLES.. 06/30/2016  
 

 
 
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