430  
ACUS03 KWNS 240544  
SWODY3  
SPC AC 240542  
 
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1242 AM CDT SAT JUN 24 2017  
 
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z  
 
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL  
OREGON INTO NORTHWEST IDAHO...  
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
ISOLATED HAIL OR WIND IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER  
OREGON, AND A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT MONDAY  
AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.  
   
..SYNOPSIS
 
 
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WILL FLATTEN THE NORTHERN  
ROCKIES UPPER RIDGE AND SHUNT IT EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS, WITH A  
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS OREGON. TO THE EAST, A LARGER UPPER TROUGH  
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD, WITH RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE  
PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE  
PLAINS INTO THE EAST, RESULTING IN RELATIVELY STABLE CONDITIONS. THE  
EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, WHERE  
A MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL DEVELOP WITH HEATING AND 50S TO  
60S DEWPOINTS SLOWLY SPREADING NORTHWEST. ELSEWHERE, WEAK  
INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP OVER OREGON AND IDAHO, IN ASSOCIATION WITH  
THE WEAK UPPER WAVE, AND MAY SUPPORT SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.  
   
..OREGON INTO IDAHO
 
 
STEEP LAPSES RATES WILL DEVELOP WITH HEATING, AND UNDER THE  
INFLUENCE OF COOLING ALOFT. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED,  
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST, WITH  
DEVELOPMENT ALONG A WEAK FRONT. COOL PROFILES ALOFT WILL FAVOR  
MARGINAL HAIL, WITH AREAS OF STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS ALSO LIKELY.  
   
..CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
 
 
AREAS OF RAIN AND STORMS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN  
PLAINS MONDAY MORNING, WHICH MAY HAVE AN EFFECT ON DESTABILIZATION  
LATER IN THE DAY. THIS ACTIVITY IS UNLIKELY TO BE SEVERE AS SHEAR  
WILL BE VERY WEAK. REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE DAY ACROSS  
SOUTH CENTRAL CO INTO NM, BUT SHEAR LOOKS TO BE WEAKER THAN ON  
PREVIOUS DAYS AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST. DURING THE EVENING, A  
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE, AND THIS MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED  
STORMS FROM EASTERN CO INTO WESTERN KS WHERE MARGINAL HAIL CANNOT BE  
RULED OUT. HOWEVER, PREDICTABILITY APPEARS TOO LOW FOR A MARGINAL  
RISK AT THIS TIME.  
 
..JEWELL.. 06/24/2017  
 

 
 
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