528  
ACUS03 KWNS 270726  
SWODY3  
SPC AC 270725  
 
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0225 AM CDT SUN MAY 27 2018  
 
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z  
 
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF  
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AREA...  
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE PROGGED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE  
PLAINS ON TUESDAY. A COUPLE OF BRIEF TORNADOES MAY ALSO OCCUR IN  
CONJUNCTION WITH ALBERTO.  
   
..SYNOPSIS
 
 
SHORT-WAVE TROUGHING EJECTING FROM THE ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO  
CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS DAY  
3/TUESDAY, AS A SECOND TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE  
NORTHEAST PACIFIC TOWARD THE WEST COAST.  
 
AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING WESTERN  
UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS  
OF THE COUNTRY, WHILE A COMBINATION OF ILL-DEFINED TROUGHING AND  
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW CROSSES THE PLAINS. FARTHER EAST, REMNANTS OF  
ALBERTO ARE FORECAST TO BE CROSSING THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AREA, PER  
LATEST NHC FORECASTS.  
   
..NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AREA
 
 
A COMPLEX/UNCERTAIN SEVERE-WEATHER FORECAST IS EVIDENT ACROSS THE  
PLAINS, WITH SEVERAL EPISODES OF INTERVENING STORMS TO HAVE OCCURRED  
OVER THE REGION ON PRIOR DAYS -- INCLUDING LIKELIHOOD FOR  
WIDESPREAD/ONGOING CONVECTION TUESDAY MORNING.  
 
WITH FLOW SURROUNDING THE EJECTING TROUGH LIKELY TO BE SOMEWHAT  
WEAKER TUESDAY AS COMPARED TO MONDAY, AND WITH SUBSTANTIAL CONCERNS  
REGARDING RECOVERY OF THE AIRMASS AFTER EXPECTED/SUBSTANTIAL  
OVERTURNING, IDENTIFYING CORRIDORS OF POTENTIALLY GREATER SEVERE  
RISK WILL BE LARGELY DELAYED UNTIL FUTURE OUTLOOKS.  
 
WITH THAT SAID, GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR AIRMASS RECOVERY/AFTERNOON  
DESTABILIZATION APPEARS TO EXIST OVER THE KANSAS VICINITY, ON THE  
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE EXPECTED ZONE OF THE MOST ACTIVE/WIDESPREAD  
DAY 2 CONVECTION. WITH SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS  
ANTICIPATED TO EXIST, WILL HIGHLIGHT A SMALL 15% RISK AREA CENTERED  
OVER CENTRAL KANSAS, WITHIN A BROAD MRGL RISK AREA EXTENDING FROM  
THE NORTH-CENTRAL STATES TO OKLAHOMA.  
   
..MID-SOUTH/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS REGION AND VICINITY
 
 
REMNANTS OF ALBERTO ARE FORECAST TO BE SHIFTING NORTHWARD  
INTO/ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TUESDAY. WHILE THE CIRCULATION  
SHOULD WEAKEN WITH TIME, AMPLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL LIKELY PERSIST  
WITHIN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM TO SUPPORT A CONTINUED  
RISK FOR A COUPLE BRIEF TORNADOES.  
 
..GOSS.. 05/27/2018  
 

 
 
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