605  
ACUS03 KWNS 160659  
SWODY3  
SPC AC 160659  
 
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0159 AM CDT MON JUL 16 2018  
 
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z  
 
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF  
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...  
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY IN PARTS OF  
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY.  
   
..CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS/MID MISSOURI VALLEY
 
 
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND  
NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A MOIST AIRMASS SHOULD  
BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS WHERE SURFACE  
DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F. IN RESPONSE  
TO SURFACE HEATING, A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY APPEARS  
LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  
THE MODELS INCLUDING THE ECMWF, NAM AND GFS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT  
CONCERNING WHERE THE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP. THE ECMWF  
MODEL WAS THE COMPROMISE SOLUTION WITH A GRADIENT OF MODERATE  
INSTABILITY LOCATED FROM NORTHWEST MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN SOUTH  
DAKOTA WHICH SEEMS TO BE THE MOST FAVORABLE SCENARIO. UNDER THIS  
SETUP, THUNDERSTORMS WOULD DEVELOP IN SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND MOVE  
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA DURING THE  
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND AND HAIL  
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.  
 
..BROYLES.. 07/16/2018  
 

 
 
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