029  
ACUS03 KWNS 240732  
SWODY3  
SPC AC 240731  
 
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0231 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016  
 
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z  
 
...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN AND  
CNTRL PLAINS...  
 
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT  
PLAINS AND LOWER TO MID MO VALLEY OUTSIDE OF THE ENHANCED RISK  
AREA...  
 
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT  
PLAINS...MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY AND SWRN GREAT LAKES OUTSIDE OF THE  
SLIGHT RISK AREA...  
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...WIND DAMAGE AND A FEW  
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS  
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE  
LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY. OTHER MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH  
HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID TO  
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.  
   
..SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS
 
 
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS  
REGION ON THURSDAY AS SOUTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE  
ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A LOW IS FORECAST TO  
DEEPEN OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WITH A WELL-DEVELOPED DRYLINE  
EXTENDING SWD ACROSS THE ERN TX PANHANDLE INTO WEST TX. SFC  
DEWPOINTS TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 70S F  
WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING BY MID AFTERNOON. LARGE-SCALE  
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL AIDE  
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE LATE  
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE WRN PORTION OF THE  
WARM SECTOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
 
THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT...SHOWING A MOIST  
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL  
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL JET APPROACHING THE DRYLINE FROM THE  
WEST LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GFS AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT  
00Z/FRI ACROSS WRN OK AND NW TX ARE IMPRESSIVE WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF  
2000 TO 3000 J/KG...0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KT AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE  
RATES APPROACHING 8.0 C/KM. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR  
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. HAILSTONES OF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN  
DIAMETER MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER SUPERCELLS. SUPERCELLS MAY ALSO  
PRODUCE TORNADOES AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR INCREASES DURING THE LATE  
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL ALSO BE  
POSSIBLE AS DOWNDRAFTS MATURE.  
   
..CNTRL HIGH PLAINS/MID MO VALLEY/SWRN GREAT LAKES
 
 
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS  
REGION ON THURSDAY AS SOUTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE  
ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE MID MO  
VALLEY. AT THE SFC...A LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE CNTRL HIGH  
PLAINS AS A FRONT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY FROM NRN KS ENEWD INTO IA  
AND SRN WI. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY  
WITH SEVERAL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS MOVING ENEWD ACROSS THE REGION  
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHER STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE  
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN CO WITH THIS ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE CNTRL  
HIGH PLAINS.  
 
CONCERNING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL ALONG THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY  
AFTERNOON...A MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN  
THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S F FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS ENEWD INTO THE  
UPPER MS VALLEY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG  
INSTABILITY BY LATE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS  
FROM SALINA KS ENEWD TO DES MOINES IA SHOW 35 TO 40 KT OF 0-6 KM  
SHEAR WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 8.0 C/KM. THIS SHOULD  
BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR  
INCREASES DURING THE EARLY EVENING...A TORNADO OR TWO MAY OCCUR WITH  
THE STRONGER SUPERCELLS. WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE  
MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS. ALTHOUGH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS  
MAY OCCUR AS FAR NORTHEAST AS ERN IA AND WI...THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE  
OVER THE NCNTRL STATES MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR CONCERNING SEVERE  
THREAT COVERAGE.  
 
..BROYLES.. 05/24/2016  
 

 
 
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