659  
ACUS03 KWNS 290724  
SWODY3  
SPC AC 290723  
 
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0223 AM CDT SAT APR 29 2017  
 
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z  
 
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF  
THE GULF COAST REGION TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...  
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM PARTS OF THE LOWER GREAT  
LAKES TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON MONDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD  
FROM WEST VIRGINIA TO PARTS OF PENNSYLVANIA.  
   
..SYNOPSIS
 
 
AN EXPANSIVE CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE  
UPPER GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY, WITH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ENVELOPING A  
MAJORITY OF THE CONTIGUOUS US. WITHIN THIS FLOW, EMBEDDED IMPULSES  
WILL LIKELY TRANSLATE NORTHEAST ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST,  
MID-ATLANTIC, AND NORTHEAST.  
   
..GULF COAST TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
 
 
ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST, AN EXPANSIVE CORRIDOR OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING FROM THE GULF COAST  
NORTHWARD TO THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY. NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS  
CORRIDOR, A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY BE ONGOING IN  
THE MORNING, AIDED BY RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK/MODERATE  
BUOYANCY. HOWEVER, THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY WEAKEN THROUGH THE FIRST  
HALF OF THE DAY, AS STRONGER ASCENT BECOMES INCREASINGLY DISPLACED  
FARTHER NORTH.  
 
ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND NORTHWARD, STORMS WILL LIKELY  
FORM/RE-INTENSIFY ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT AND/OR A PRE-FRONTAL  
TROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW AND MODEST  
VEERING WITH HEIGHT WILL OFFER FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL/DEEP-LAYER SHEAR  
FOR UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION. IN TERMS OF FORECAST BUOYANCY, CLOUD COVER  
MAY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF HEATING/DESTABILIZATION OVER THE REGION, AND  
MOST FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT RELATIVELY NARROW MIXED-LAYER CAPE  
PROFILES. NONETHELESS, SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY FOR AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE  
STORMS, CAPABLE OF STRONG WINDS, SEVERE HAIL, AND PERHAPS A TORNADO  
OR TWO, APPEARS PROBABLE. ADDITIONALLY, PORTIONS OF THE MARGINAL  
(MOST LIKELY WEST VIRGINIA, NORTHWEST VIRGINIA, AND POINTS  
NORTHWARD) MAY REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT IF CONFIDENCE IN  
SUFFICIENT SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY CONTINUES TO INCREASE.  
 
..PICCA.. 04/29/2017  
 

 
 
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