619  
ACUS03 KWNS 260729  
SWODY3  
SPC AC 260728  
 
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0228 AM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016  
 
VALID 281200Z - 291200Z  
 
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE CNTRL/SRN  
PLAINS...  
 
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE CNTRL  
APPALACHIANS AND THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...  
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...AND ACROSS  
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION.  
   
..SYNOPSIS
 
 
AN UPPER IMPULSE ORIGINATING OVER THE CNTRL GULF COAST WILL MOVE NWD  
AND PHASE WITH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE ERN CONUS.  
THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND  
REACH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY LATE EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL  
GRADUALLY PROGRESS SWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT  
LAKES. A STRONG MIDLEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY  
OVER THE WRN GREAT BASIN...MAINTAINING A BELT OF MODERATE NWLY FLOW  
FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE SRN PLAINS.  
   
..CNTRL HIGH PLAINS SEWD INTO OK AND THE WRN OZARK PLATEAU
 
 
A BELT OF MODERATELY STRONG NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS MOST  
OF THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE SRN PLAINS...AND FEATURE A SERIES OF  
WEAK EMBEDDED IMPULSES OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ACROSS THE HIGH  
PLAINS. A CORRIDOR OF UPPER 50S TO MID 60S F DEWPOINTS WILL BE  
POSITIONED ACROSS KS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF ERN WY...N OF A W-E  
BOUNDARY ACROSS NRN OK OR SRN KS. STRONG CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP BOTH  
NEAR/E OF THE FRONT RANGE AND INTO PARTS OF KS DURING THE AFTERNOON  
AND EARLY EVENING...AND ATTEMPT TO SPREAD INTO NRN OK AND WRN  
PORTIONS OF MO/AR OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE SEASONABLY STRONG FLOW ALOFT  
AND ADEQUATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...A SLIGHT RISK WILL  
PROBABLY BE WARRANTED IN FUTURE OUTLOOKS ACROSS PARTS OF THIS  
REGION...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE CURRENTLY EXISTS IN MESOSCALE DETAILS  
AND TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES.  
   
..CNTRL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION
 
 
A BOUNDARY INITIALLY OVER SRN VA EARLY THU MORNING IS FORECAST TO  
LIFT NWD THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH 70S F DEWPOINTS SPREADING ACROSS  
VA...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX MOVING OUT OF THE  
CNTRL APPALACHIANS. MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES IN DEPICTING THE MAGNITUDE  
OF THE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE /GENERALLY BETWEEN 30-50 KT  
AT 500 MB/. RICH PW ENVIRONMENT /NEAR 2 INCHES/ COMBINED WITH THE  
MODERATE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ENCOURAGE STRONG CONVECTION TO DEVELOP  
ACROSS NRN NC INTO VA LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH BOTH  
TIMING OF THE SPEED MAX AND STRENGTH OF FLOW ALOFT  
UNCERTAIN...SLIGHT RISK DELINEATION WILL BE DEFERRED UNTIL  
CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN SPATIOTEMPORAL DETAILS OF STRONG CONVECTION.  
 
..ROGERS.. 07/26/2016  
 

 
 
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