549  
ACUS48 KWNS 250852  
SWOD48  
SPC AC 250851  
 
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0351 AM CDT THU MAY 25 2017  
 
VALID 281200Z - 021200Z  
   
..DISCUSSION
 
   
..DAY 4/SUNDAY
 
 
THE COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST INTO  
TEXAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE  
MID-ATLANTIC STATES. UPPER-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE MORE  
PRONOUNCED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC, THOUGH LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY  
WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER. MODERATE/LOCALLY STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD  
DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT. PRIMARY FORECAST  
UNCERTAINTY RELATES TO THE INFLUENCES OF WIDESPREAD/INTENSE  
CONVECTION ON DAY 3 ON THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT AND RESIDUAL CLOUD  
COVER. A SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY EXIST FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC  
REGION SOUTH/WEST THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO  
CENTRAL TEXAS, BUT CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A 15  
PERCENT LINE IS LOW WITH THIS OUTLOOK.  
   
..DAY 5/MONDAY AND DAY 6/TUESDAY
 
 
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND FROM NEW ENGLAND SOUTH THROUGH THE  
CAROLINAS AND INTO SOUTH TEXAS, WITH WEAK/POCKETS OF MODERATE  
INSTABILITY NEAR THE FRONT. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR DECREASES TUESDAY FROM  
THE SOUTHEAST STATES WEST INTO TEXAS AS THIS AREA WILL BE SOUTH OF  
STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW, BUT SOME SEVERE THREAT WILL AGAIN EXIST  
NEAR THE FRONT.  
   
..WEDNESDAY/DAY 7 AND THURSDAY/DAY 8
 
 
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL U.S. AND  
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY INCREASE WITHIN A MODEST WEST/NORTHWEST  
MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN.  
 
..BUNTING.. 05/25/2017  
 
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