612  
ACUS48 KWNS 280804  
SWOD48  
SPC AC 280802  
 
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0302 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016  
 
VALID 311200Z - 051200Z  
   
..DISCUSSION
 
   
..NRN PLAINS
 
 
NWD ADVECTION OF RICH MOISTURE WILL OCCUR LATE SAT/D3 INTO THE  
SUN/D4 PERIOD OVER THE NRN PLAINS. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A  
SEASONABLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA WILL  
ENTER THE REGION...AND MAY PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR STRONG CONVECTION  
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. DETERMINISTIC MODELS VARY IN  
LONGITUDINAL POSITION OF THE COLD FRONT DURING PEAK  
HEATING...LIMITING CONFIDENCE IN A 15 PERCENT PROBABILISTIC  
DELINEATION ON SUN/D4. MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A MORE  
AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ENTER THE PAC NW EARLY NEXT  
WEEK...BUT PREDICTABILITY IN TIMING/MAGNITUDE DETERIORATES AS THE  
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES EWD TOWARDS THE NRN ROCKIES AND NRN  
PLAINS MID-WEEK. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC STRONG  
CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD  
ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS.  
 
..ROGERS.. 07/28/2016  
 
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