760  
ACUS48 KWNS 250859  
SWOD48  
SPC AC 250858  
 
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0358 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016  
 
VALID 281200Z - 031200Z  
   
..DISCUSSION
 
 
THE ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL  
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IN THE  
WRN STATES. ON TUESDAY/DAY 4 AND WEDNESDAY/DAY 5...NORTHWEST  
MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST ACROSS THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS WITH AN  
AXIS OF INSTABILITY EXTENDING NWWD INTO THE CNTRL AND NRN HIGH  
PLAINS. AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF THE  
CNTRL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON  
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY/DAY 6...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS  
MAINTAIN NORTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW FROM THE NRN PLAINS SEWD INTO THE  
MID MS VALLEY WITH BUT HAVE THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY IN THE SRN AND  
CNTRL PLAINS. ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY INCREASES BY THIS TIME IN THE DAY  
4 TO 8 PERIOD...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS  
PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON  
FRIDAY/DAY 7 AND SATURDAY/DAY 8...BOTH MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW  
NORTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW FROM THE NRN PLAINS SEWD INTO THE MID MS  
VALLEY BUT ARE SUBSTANTIALLY DIFFERENT CONCERNING MOISTURE AND  
INSTABILITY. FOR THIS REASON...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW CONCERNING A  
SEVERE THREAT LATE IN THE WEEK.  
 
..BROYLES.. 06/25/2016  
 
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