905  
ACUS48 KWNS 290758  
SWOD48  
SPC AC 290756  
 
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0256 AM CDT WED MAR 29 2017  
 
VALID 011200Z - 061200Z  
   
..DISCUSSION
 
   
..DAY4/SAT - OK/TX
 
 
CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH  
ROUGHLY 1000NM OFF OF THE COAST OF NORTHERN CA. THIS FEATURE IS  
FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE WESTERN STATES LATER THIS WEEK AND  
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINNING SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL  
WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH OVER TX/OK, WITH THE SURFACE  
DRYLINE DEVELOPING FROM WESTERN OK INTO CENTRAL TX. THIS WILL BE  
THE FOCUS OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT  
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT IN THIS CORRIDOR ON  
SATURDAY FOR A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS.  
   
..DAY5/SUN - TX INTO THE ARKLAMISS REGION
 
 
MODELS BECOME A LITTLE MORE DIVERGENT IN SOLUTIONS ON SUNDAY, BUT  
GENERALLY DEPICT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW OVER EAST TX. AN  
ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL JET WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS LA, HELPING TO  
SPREAD RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE INLAND ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. STRONG  
WINDS ALOFT AND FAVORABLE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY PROFILES SUGGEST A  
RISK OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS OVER SOUTHEAST TX, MUCH OF LA,  
WESTERN MS, AND SOUTHERN AR ON SUNDAY.  
   
..DAY6/MON THRU DAY8/WED - SOUTHEAST STATES
 
 
BEYOND DAY5, MODEL DISAGREEMENT BECOMES TOO LARGE TO CONFIDENTLY  
FORECAST DAILY AREAS OF SEVERE STORM RISK. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE  
STRONG UPPER SYSTEM AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY THAT  
WILL LIKELY BE PRESENT, SEVERE RISK AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE  
DELINEATED IN LATER UPDATES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER PARTS OF THE  
SOUTHEAST STATES.  
 
..HART.. 03/29/2017  
 
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