301  
ACUS48 KWNS 020919  
SWOD48  
SPC AC 020917  
 
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0317 AM CST FRI DEC 02 2016  
 
VALID 051200Z - 101200Z  
   
..DISCUSSION
 
 
MONDAY (DAY 4) THOUGH SOME MINOR TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES  
EXIST...MODELS INDICATE THE SOUTHERN-STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL  
FINALLY EJECT THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY. AT LEAST WEAK CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE PERIOD  
OVER THE WESTERN GULF...AND THE CYCLONE WILL SUBSEQUENTLY DEVELOP  
NEWD THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND  
EWD FROM THE LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST...BUT AN UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR  
WILL STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP INLAND DUE TO A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE  
CENTERED OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND ONGOING WIDESPREAD  
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL TEND TO REINFORCE THE  
NEAR-SURFACE STABLE LAYER. NEVERTHELESS...AT LEAST A WEAKLY UNSTABLE  
WARM SECTOR MIGHT MOVE ONSHORE AS THE SURFACE CYCLONE DEVELOPS  
NORTHWARD AND DEEP-LAYER WINDS AND VERTICAL SHEAR STRENGTHENS WITH  
THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...SUPPORTING A CONDITIONAL  
THREAT FOR A FEW ROTATING STORMS AND BOWING SEGMENTS.  
 
TUESDAY (DAY 5) AT LEAST A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK MIGHT PERSIST FROM  
SOUTHERN GEORGIA THROUGH SOUTH CAROLINA AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH  
CONTINUES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...  
TENDENCY WILL BE FOR THIS WAVE TO DEAMPLIFY...AND ONGOING WIDESPREAD  
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CONVEYOR BELT SUGGEST  
DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN LIMITED.  
 
WEDNESDAY (DAY 6) PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WILL RETURN THROUGH  
THE TEXAS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR  
DOWNSTREAM OF AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. WHILE  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT WITHIN A STRONGLY  
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN WHETHER MOISTURE RETURN  
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT.  
 
..DIAL.. 12/02/2016  
 
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