551  
ACUS48 KWNS 230839  
SWOD48  
SPC AC 230837  
 
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0237 AM CST THU NOV 23 2017  
 
VALID 261200Z - 011200Z  
   
..DISCUSSION
 
 
AN AMPLIFIED BUT PROGRESSIVE UPPER-AIR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH  
THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. OFFSHORE FLOW INTO THE GULF  
OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY HALF OF MONDAY AND LOW-LEVEL  
MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER MARGINAL AND SLOW TO RETURN NORTHWARD BY  
TUESDAY INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS.  
 
MODEL VARIABILITY IS SUBSTANTIAL BY TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY (DAYS 6-7) IN  
THE EASTWARD MIGRATION AND EVOLUTION OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE  
ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. WHILE IT SEEMS LIKE  
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED, NEVERTHELESS IT IS  
POSSIBLE A NARROW MOISTURE/INSTABILITY CORRIDOR DEVELOPS FROM THE  
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MS VALLEY.  
THEREFORE WILL MAINTAIN A PREDICTABILITY-TOO-LOW HIGHLIGHT FOR A  
POTENTIAL SCENARIO THAT WOULD SEEMINGLY BE ON THE LOWER TIER OF THE  
SEVERE-POTENTIAL SPECTRUM. BY NEXT THURSDAY (DAY 8), LARGE  
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS BUT THE PATTERN APPEARS LESS FAVORABLE FOR  
ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
..SMITH.. 11/23/2017  
 
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