318  
ACUS48 KWNS 290835  
SWOD48  
SPC AC 290834  
 
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0334 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016  
 
VALID 011200Z - 061200Z  
   
..DISCUSSION
 
 
MEDIUM-RANGE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING  
THE UPPER PATTERN FEATURE A RIDGE IN THE WRN U.S. AND PROGRESSIVE  
TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY4-5  
/WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY/ PERIOD. POTENTIAL APPEARS RELATIVELY LOW  
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME FOR A 15-PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE.  
STRENGTHENING MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL FLOW MOVES INTO THE N-CNTRL U.S. BY  
DAY6-7 /FRIDAY-SATURDAY/. MODELS DIVERGE REGARDING THE POTENTIAL  
COVERAGE OF STORMS AND THE QUALITY OF BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS  
THE ERN DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST LENDING PREDICTABILITY CONCERNS.  
BY DAY8 /SUNDAY/...MODELS GENERALLY CONVERGE TOWARDS MAINTAINING A  
RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EASTERN U.S.  
 
..SMITH.. 05/29/2016  
 
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