903  
ACUS48 KWNS 260835  
SWOD48  
SPC AC 260834  
 
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0334 AM CDT WED JUL 26 2017  
 
VALID 291200Z - 031200Z  
   
..DISCUSSION
 
 
DESPITE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES, MEDIUM-RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS IS  
THAT AN EXPANSIVE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST DURING  
THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY/DAY 4, FOLLOWED SHORTLY THEREAFTER BY THE  
UPPER TROUGH AXIS. WHILE SOME SEVERE THREAT COULD EXIST ACROSS THE  
ATLANTIC COAST AREA EARLY IN THE DAY AHEAD OF FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND  
INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES IN A  
RELATIVELY LOW-SHEAR BUT UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT NEAR THE TRAILING  
FRONT, RISK DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT AN AREAL HIGHLIGHT AT THIS  
TIME.  
 
AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AND THE UPPER PATTERN -- FEATURING A  
TROUGH IN THE EAST AND A RIDGE IN THE WEST -- STAGNATES THROUGH MUCH  
OF THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, MAIN POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE RISK  
WOULD APPEAR TO EXIST FROM THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND  
INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER, WITH ANY RISK IN  
THESE AREAS TIED TO LOW PREDICTABILITY SMALLER-SCALE FEATURES ALOFT  
CRESTING THE UPPER RIDGE, COMBINATION OF UNCERTAINTY AND THE  
LIKELIHOOD OF RELATIVELY ISOLATED/SPARSE RISK PRECLUDES ISSUANCE OF  
ANY RISK AREAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 
..GOSS.. 07/26/2017  
 
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