173  
ABNT20 KNHC 270533  
TWOAT  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
200 AM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016  
 
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO:  
 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW  
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD  
ISLANDS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION, AND A TROPICAL  
CYCLONE COULD BE FORMING. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES, THEN A TROPICAL  
DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM WOULD LIKELY FORM LATER TODAY WHILE  
THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.  
INTERESTS IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA, INCLUDING THE  
NORTHERN COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA, SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS  
SYSTEM, AND WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED AT ANY TIME.  
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS,  
POSSIBLY TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE, ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE  
WINDWARD ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN LESSER ANTILLES  
BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY. AN AIR FORCE  
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE  
DISTURBANCE THIS AFTERNOON.  
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...HIGH...90 PERCENT  
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 5 DAYS...HIGH...90 PERCENT  
 
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMNANTS OF  
LISA, LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES. THIS SYSTEM  
IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A COLD FRONT LATER TODAY BEFORE  
REGENERATION INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE CAN OCCUR.  
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT  
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 5 DAYS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT  
 
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF  
OF MEXICO ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS  
DRIFTING WESTWARD. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE  
CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT BEFORE THIS SYSTEM MOVES  
INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT  
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 5 DAYS...LOW...10 PERCENT  
 

 
FORECASTER STEWART  
 
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