516  
ABNT20 KNHC 130531  
TWOAT  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
200 AM EDT WED AUG 13 2025  
 
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF AMERICA:  
 
ACTIVE SYSTEMS:  
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL  
STORM ERIN, LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC.  
 
SOUTHWESTERN GULF:  
A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING  
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. THIS  
DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND CROSS THE  
YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TODAY WITH NO SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN  
ORGANIZATION. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AFTER IT  
EMERGES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF BEGINNING ON THURSDAY WHILE THE  
SYSTEM MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.  
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.  
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 7 DAYS...LOW...20 PERCENT.  
 
NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC:  
A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES  
SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA, CANADA, IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. LIMITED  
TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE TODAY AS THE  
LOW LINGERS NEAR THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF THE GULF STREAM.  
HOWEVER, BY TONIGHT, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER  
COOLER WATERS, WHICH WILL DIMINISH ITS CHANCES FOR ANY TROPICAL  
DEVELOPMENT.  
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.  
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 7 DAYS...LOW...10 PERCENT.  
 
 
FORECASTER KELLY  
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