032  
AGXX40 KNHC 230722  
MIMATS  
 
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
322 AM EDT SUN APR 23 2017  
 
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA,  
AND TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W  
AND THE SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.  
   
..GULF OF MEXICO
 
 
 
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING AN AREA OF SHOWERS  
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THAT IS AFFECTING MOST OF THE FLORIDA  
KEYS, THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. WINDS  
AND SEAS COULD BE HIGHER NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. AT 23/0300 UTC, A  
SURFACE LOW OF 1010 MB IS ANALYZED OVER WESTERN CUBA WITH A  
TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SE GULF. THE LOW IS  
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN END OVER THE  
SOUTHEAST GULF LATE TODAY AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE GULF  
REGION. ELSEWHERE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL EXCEPT BEHIND  
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE NW GULF.  
 
THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM MOBILE ALABAMA TO NEAR BROWNSVILLE  
TEXAS. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS FOLLOW THE FRONT WITH SEAS OF 4-6  
FT BASED ON BUOY OBSERVATIONS. SEAS WILL FURTHER BUILD TO 6-8 FT  
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL WATERS EARLY  
THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE  
TO NEAR TAMPICO, MEXICO THIS MORNING, AND FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TO  
THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE MONDAY MORNING, PUSHING SE OF  
THE GULF BY LATE MONDAY. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL  
DOMINATE MOST OF THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT WITH SEAS GENERALLY IN  
THE 4-6 FT RANGE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT WITH  
DECREASING WINDS AND SEAS BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. BY MID  
WEEK, FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS FORECAST TO  
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF BETWEEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND  
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN TEXAS.  
 
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN  
55W AND 64W...  
 
THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE MAINLY LIGHT AND  
VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WHILE MODERATE TO  
FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT ACROSS THE WATERS  
SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA TO ABOUT 16N WHERE FRESH LO LOCALLY STRONG  
WINDS ARE BLOWING. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE  
MONDAY, THEN WILL REACH FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO NORTHERN HONDURAS  
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING. MODERATE TO FRESH  
NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY. THEN, EXPECT LIGHT  
TO GENTLE WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN TUESDAY  
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL  
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL NORTH  
ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHEAST SWELL  
IS CURRENTLY REACHING THE ATLANTIC PASSAGES IN THE NE CARIBBEAN,  
INCLUDING THE ANEGADA AND MONA PASSAGES, AND ALSO THE TROPICAL N  
ATLANTIC WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7 FT ACROSS THOSE AREAS  
THROUGH TONIGHT.  
   
..SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN WATERS WILL RETREAT EASTWARD  
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY, AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE TRACKS  
NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY, THEN INTENSIFIES AS IT  
MERGES WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHWESTERN WATERS ON  
MONDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE  
BAHAMAS THROUGH TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS  
THE NORTHERN ZONES AHEAD OF THE LOW MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT  
BETWEEN THIS LOW AND THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL RESULT  
IN STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING NORTHEAST  
OF THE BAHAMAS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING  
TO 8 TO 12 FT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT FREQUENT  
GUSTS TO GALE FORCE OR MINIMAL GALE-FORCE WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS  
FORECAST ZONE AMZ113, EAST OF THE DEEPENING LOW ON MONDAY BEFORE  
THE LOW MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. THEN, THE DECISION WAS MADE AND  
A GALE WARNING WILL BE ISSUED WITH THE 0600 UTC FORECAST  
PACKAGE. AS THE LOW MERGES WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM LATER ON MONDAY,  
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE NORTHWESTERN WATERS. THE FRONT WILL  
THEN REACH FROM 31N75W TO CENTRAL CUBA ON TUESDAY MORNING, WITH  
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS PERSISTING EAST OF THE FRONT. WINDS AND  
SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST  
REGION AS THE LOW LIFTS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE ASSOCIATED  
COLD FRONT DISSIPATES OVER THE SW N ATLANTIC WATERS. BY THAT  
TIME, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS WILL  
DOMINATE THE FORECAST REGION.  
 

 
   
WARNINGS
 
ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE  
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT, OR BY  
TELEPHONE:  
   
GULF OF MEXICO
 
 
NONE.  
 
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN  
55W AND 64W...  
NONE.  
   
SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS
 
   
AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W
 
 
GALE WARNING MON.  
 

 
 
*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS, PLEASE VISIT:  
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF  
 
NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL  
DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:  
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP  
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION, PLEASE VISIT:  
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE  
 

 
 
.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.  
 
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