658  
AXPZ20 KNHC 240408  
TWDEP  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
0405 UTC SAT FEB 24 2018  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N, EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS  
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR, AND  
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
0345 UTC.  
   
..SPECIAL FEATURE
 
THE FUEGO VOLCANO INLAND OVER SOUTHERN  
GUATEMALA NEAR AT 14.5N 90.9W IS ERUPTING. A PLUME OF VOLCANIC  
ASH MAY REACH TO THE SURFACE ACROSS THE PACIFIC WATERS N OF 14N  
AND E OF 93W. LOW LEVEL VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED TO 6 NM OR  
LESS. MARINERS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION. IF MARINERS ENCOUNTER  
VOLCANIC ASH, THEY ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT THE OBSERVATION TO  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING 305-229-4425. PLEASE  
REFER TO THE EAST PACIFIC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO  
HEADERS HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE ASHFALL  
ADVISORY.  
   
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
 
 
 
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 04N90W TO 01N103W TO 03N109W WHERE  
SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ, WHICH  
CONTINUES NW TO 06N120W TO 05N130W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED  
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN AREA  
BOUNDED BY A LINE FROM 15N135W TO 14N105W TO 02N126W TO 15N135W.  
   
..DISCUSSION
 
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...  
 
PACIFIC WATERS W OF THE BAJA PENINSULA: A W TO E RIDGE EXTENDS  
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS FROM 22N116W TO 14N100W. FRESH TO  
STRONG NW WINDS, WITH 7 TO 10 FT SEAS, ARE OBSERVED N OF 27.5N W  
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD  
SOUTHWARD TO ALONG 24.5N AND SPREAD SEAWARD TO 180 NM EARLY SAT  
BEFORE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH. ASSOCIATED SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO  
LESS THAN 8 FT BY LATE SUN NIGHT, WITH ANOTHER BATCH OF STRONG  
NW WINDS, ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE NW SWELL, ARRIVING AT 30N120W  
LATE MON NIGHT. EXPECT FRESH NW WINDS AND 8 TO 15 FT SEAS N OF  
24N ON TUE EVENING, AND MODERATE N WINDS AND 7 TO 10 FT SEAS W  
OF THE ENTIRE BAJA PENINSULA LATE WED.  
 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC: GENTLE ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED DURING THE  
DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH GENTLE OFFSHORE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS  
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  
 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA: FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS CURRENTLY ACROSS  
THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS  
N OF 26N LATE SAT. STRONG NW WINDS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE  
WATERS S OF 28.5N ON SAT EVENING, WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT  
ACROSS THE LONGEST FETCH WATERS. EXCEPT FRESH NW FLOW ACROSS THE  
ENTIRE GULF WATERS ON SUN. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL QUICKLY  
RELAX ON SUN MON, WITH GENTLE WINDS GRADUALLY CLOCKING TO S,  
EXCEPT INCREASING TO STRONG ALONG 30N ON MON NIGHT AHEAD OF THE  
NEXT COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS ON TUE  
WITH BRIEF STRONG NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUE NIGHT.  
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND  
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...  
 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO: FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE  
TO PULSE THROUGH AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH  
THU, WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 7 FT.  
 
GULF OF PANAMA: FRESH NOCTURNAL N WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE  
WESTERN GULF OF PANAMA OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY MODERATE NOCTURNAL  
DRAINAGE FLOW IS THEN FORECAST ON SAT AND SUN NIGHTS WITH FRESH  
WINDS EXPECTED TO RESUME ON MON AND TUE NIGHTS.  
 
ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL N OF  
08N WHILE LIGHT TO GENTLE SW WINDS ARE FORECAST S OF 08N.  
 
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...  
 
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WELL NW OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO  
SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE TRADES, AND 7 TO 11 FT SEAS,  
ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS N OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE AND W OF  
115W THROUGH SUN WHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO  
FURTHER TIGHTEN. EXPECT A STRONG NE BREEZE, WITH 8 TO 12 FT  
SEAS, ACROSS THE PACIFIC WATERS FROM 08N TO 24N W OF 129W BY  
EARLY TUE.  
 
NORTHERLY SWELL, IN THE FORM OF 7 TO 10 FT SEAS, WILL CONTINUE  
TO PROPAGATE S ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 25N TO 32N BETWEEN 117W  
AND 130W THROUGH SAT NIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE.  
 
AROUND ROUND OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REACH ALONG 32N  
BETWEEN 120W AND 130W ON MON NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE WINDS WILL  
DIMINISH TO A FRESH N BREEZE ON TUE, EXPECT 8 TO 16 FT SEAS  
ACROSS THE PACIFIC WATERS FROM 22N TO 32N BETWEEN 117W AND 132W  
ON TUE NIGHT.  
 

 
NELSON  
 
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