876  
AXPZ20 KNHC 170930  
TWDEP  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
1005 UTC FRI AUG 17 2018  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N, EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS  
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR, AND  
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
0900 UTC.  
   
..SPECIAL FEATURE
 
 
HURRICANE LANE CENTERED NEAR 11.4N 131.4W AT 0900 UTC, OR 1450  
NM ESE OF HILO HAWAII, MOVING W AT 14 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM  
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 70 KT  
WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS  
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER. LANE IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY, AND  
MOVE W OF 140W INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC SAT NIGHT. SEE LATEST  
NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP4/WTPZ34  
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  
   
..TROPICAL WAVES
 
 
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS NORTH OF 10N ALONG 92W, MOVING W AT 10  
TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WEST OF THE WAVE  
IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTPEC.  
 
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 08N TO 20N ALONG 113W, MOVING W AT  
10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS  
FROM 09N TO 12.5N BETWEEN 111W AND 115W.  
   
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
 
 
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM 08N78W TO 08N97W  
TO 10N122W. NO ITCZ AXIS IS NOTED E OF 140W. SCATTERED MODERATE  
CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 11N BETWEEN 93W AND 106W.  
   
..DISCUSSION
 
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...  
 
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IS WEST OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS AREA. NW  
WINDS WILL REMAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN  
FRESHEN SLIGHTLY THIS WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS.  
 
NO MAJOR GAP WIND EVENTS EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC,  
ALTHOUGH NOCTURNAL NORTHERLY DRAINAGE FLOW AROUND 15-20 KT IS  
EXPECTED THERE EACH NIGHT. THESE FRESH WINDS COMBINED WITH LONG  
PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL SUPPORT SEAS TO 6-7 FT THROUGH SAT.  
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND  
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...  
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH SHOULD MEANDER NEAR 09N DURING THE NEXT FEW  
DAYS. WINDS ON BOTH SIDES OF THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE MODERATE OR  
WEAKER, WITH THE ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION BEING NEAR THE GULF OF  
PAPAGAYO, WHERE WINDS CAN PULSE TO MODERATE TO FRESH EACH NIGHT.  
 
LONG-PERIOD SW CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL IMPACTING CENTRAL AMERICA  
AND OFFSHORE ZONES IS PRODUCING SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT. SWELL WILL  
GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  
 
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...  
 
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON  
HURRICANE LANE.  
 
A SURFACE TROUGH HAS MOVED W OF 140W WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION. AN  
AREA OF FRESH WINDS AND SEAS TO 7-8 FT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE  
HAVE ALSO MOVED WEST OF THE AREA.  
 
OTHERWISE, RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND FROM NW TO SE ACROSS  
THE WATERS N OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  
MODERATE TRADES AND 4-7 FT SEAS IN MIXED SWELL WILL PREVAIL.  
 

 
MUNDELL  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab TPC Page Main Text Page