443  
AXPZ20 KNHC 222156  
TWDEP  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
2205 UTC FRI JUN 22 2018  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N, EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS  
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR, AND  
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
2100 UTC.  
   
..TROPICAL WAVES
 
 
A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 101W/102W IS MOVING WEST AT 10 KT AND HAS  
SLOWED ITS FORWARD PROGRESS TODAY. THE WAVE IS PRESENTLY MOVING  
THROUGH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO  
STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS LOCATED FROM 06N  
TO 16N BETWEEN 97W AND 105W. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW AN AREA OF LOW  
PRESSURE DEVELOP FROM THIS WAVE ALONG 106W THIS WEEKEND. THIS  
AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE  
DEVELOPMENT SW OF MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
   
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
 
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N71W TO 07.5N79W TO 13.5N101W  
TO 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR 13N116W TO 09N121W. THE ITCZ  
CONTINUES FROM 09N121W TO 07N127W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE  
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05.5N TO 15.5N BETWEEN 84W  
AND 102W, FROM 09N TO 14N BETWEEN 102W AND 119W, AND FROM 06N TO  
13N TO THE WEST OF 133W.  
   
..DISCUSSION
 
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...  
 
MODERATE NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS WEST  
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH EARLY SAT BEFORE BEGINNING TO  
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AS A BROAD SURFACE  
TROUGH EXTENDING THE FULL LENGTH OF THE PENINSULA SHIFTS SLOWLY  
WESTWARD ACROSS THE PACIFIC WATERS. WINDS WEST OF THE PENINSULA  
WILL BECOME VARIABLE LESS THAN 15 KT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
MEANWHILE, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS  
INSIDE THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND, BECOMING FRESH TO  
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY N OF 27N SAT AFTERNOON, CONTINUING INTO  
EARLY SUN MORNING. SEAS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL  
BUILD TO 6-9 FT BY SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THEN SUBSIDE SUN  
ALONG WITH A DECREASE IN SURFACE WINDS.  
 
FURTHER SOUTH, LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WILL BEGIN  
TO REACH THE WATERS OFF SOUTHERN MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON, AND  
BUILD SEAS TO 5-6 FT TONIGHT, AND REACH 7-8 FT BY SUN MORNING.  
SEA WILL THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE MON.  
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND  
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...  
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL MEANDER BETWEEN 09N AND 11N THE NEXT  
SEVERAL DAYS. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL NORTH OF THE  
MONSOON TROUGH, WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO SW WINDS EXPECTED  
SOUTH OF THE TROUGH AXIS. LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL  
WILL SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN FORECAST WATERS TODAY, WITH SEAS  
BUILDING TO 5-6 FT THIS EVENING, AND REACHING 6-8 FT SAT  
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN, BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING MON.  
 
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...  
 
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 36N136W  
EXTENDS A MODEST RIDGE SE TO NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS.  
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS PREVAIL S OF 27N AND WEST OF 125W,  
WHERE SEAS ARE GENERALLY 6 TO 8 FT, WHILE LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS  
DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WESTWARD OF 110W.  
 
TRADEWINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE  
AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT AS A TROUGH ALONG 142W SHIFTS  
WELL WEST OF THE AREA. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY 8 TO 9 FT IN MIXED NE  
AND NW IN THIS AREA, FROM 10N TO 15N TO THE WEST OF 137W AND  
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 6-7 FT THROUGH SAT. A PULSE OF  
NORTHERLY SWELL WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS WITH  
SEAS BUILDING TO 6 TO 9 FT NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W  
EARLY SAT. CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL BUILD SEAS TO 6  
TO 9 FT SOUTH OF 10N AND WEST OF 90W LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE  
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.  
 
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 13N116W IS EMBEDDED ALONG THE MONSOON  
TROUGH WITH AN ESTIMATED PRESSURE OF 1011 MB. MODEL GUIDANCE  
SHOWS THIS LOW EMERGING FROM THE TROUGH AND DRIFTING NORTHWARD  
WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ACTIVE  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THIS  
LOW THROUGH SAT.  
 

 
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