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FONT14 KNHC 302039
PWSAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MELISSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142007
2100 UTC SUN SEP 30 2007
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MELISSA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
...THERE ARE NO LOCATIONS WITH TOTAL ACCUMLATED 5 DAY PROBABILITIES
GREATER THAN 2 PERCENT...
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 167N 359W 34 5 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
12 167N 359W 50 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
12 167N 359W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
24 177N 383W 34 X 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
24 177N 383W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
24 177N 383W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
36 189N 407W 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
36 189N 407W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
36 189N 407W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
48 205N 428W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
48 205N 428W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
48 205N 428W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 25 20 20 20 0 0 0
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
FORECASTER BROWN
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