417  
FONT15 KNHC 051441  
PWSAT5  
 
REMNANTS OF OSCAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152012  
1500 UTC FRI OCT 05 2012  
 
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF REMNANTS OF OSCAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE  
24.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.  
 
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)  
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME  
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME  
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME  
 
 
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE  
 
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF  
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES  
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.  
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS  
THAN 1 PERCENT.  
 
 
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -  
 
VALID TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED  
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  
DISSIPATED NA NA NA NA NA NA NA  
TROP DEPRESSION NA NA NA NA NA NA NA  
TROPICAL STORM NA NA NA NA NA NA NA  
HURRICANE NA NA NA NA NA NA NA  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  
HUR CAT 1 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA  
HUR CAT 2 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA  
HUR CAT 3 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA  
HUR CAT 4 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA  
HUR CAT 5 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  
FCST MAX WIND NA NA NA NA NA NA NA  
 
 
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
 
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST  
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...  
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...  
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS  
 
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE  
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING  
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)  
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN  
12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)  
 
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT  
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN  
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.  
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE  
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.  
 
 
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -  
 
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM  
TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE  
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO  
00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED  
 
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  
LOCATION KT  
 
 
   
..THERE IS NO OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS DATE/TIME  
 
AND THEREFORE NO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES CAN BE CALCULATED...  
 
 
 
FORECASTER AVILA  
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