062  
FOPZ15 KNHC 261449  
PWSEP5  
 
TROPICAL STORM IRWIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102017  
1500 UTC WED JUL 26 2017  
 
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRWIN WAS LOCATED NEAR  
LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED  
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.  
 
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)  
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME  
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME  
 
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
 
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST  
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...  
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...  
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS  
 
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE  
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING  
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)  
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN  
12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)  
 
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT  
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN  
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.  
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY  
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.  
 
 
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -  
 
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM  
TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN  
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO  
00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON  
 
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  
LOCATION KT  
 
15N 120W 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8)  
 
20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6)  
 
10N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5)  
 
15N 125W 34 1 29(30) 29(59) 5(64) 10(74) 2(76) X(76)  
15N 125W 50 X 3( 3) 13(16) 3(19) 9(28) 1(29) 1(30)  
15N 125W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)  
 
20N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 9(11) 7(18)  
20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)  
 
25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)  
 
15N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)  
 
20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)  
 

 
FORECASTER AVILA  
 
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