697
WTNT41 KNHC 180249
TCDAT1
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012026
1000 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED THAT THE CENTER OF ARTHUR RE-FORMED
NEAR GALVESTON AROUND 21-22Z IN RESPONSE TO AN OFFSHORE CONVECTIVE
BURST. SINCE THAT TIME, THERE HAS BEEN NO ORGANIZED CONVECTION NEAR
THE CENTER, AND THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME ELONGATED ALONG THE UPPER
TEXAS COAST. BASED ON THESE DEVELOPMENTS, AND THE EXPECTATION THAT
ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL NOT REFORM NEAR THE CENTER, ARTHUR IS NO
LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND IS BEING DOWNGRADED TO A POST-TROPICAL
LOW WITH 30 KT WINDS.
WHILE THE MOTION IS A BIT UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE CENTER REFORMATION,
IT APPEARS THAT THE SYSTEM IS STARTING TO MOVE A BIT FASTER TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST WITH THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATED AT 040/8 KT. A
GENERAL NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE SURFACE CENTER
DISSIPATES TONIGHT OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS OR SOUTHWESTERN
LOUISIANA. AFTER THAT, THE REMNANTS OF ARTHUR SHOULD MOVE EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND EMERGE INTO
THE ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. A CONTINUED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION OUT TO
SEA IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER.
AS MENTIONED, THE SURFACE CENTER OF ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
LATER TONIGHT. THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SURFACE CENTER
COULD REFORM NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST ON FRIDAY, WITH SOME
INTENSIFICATION POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT TO SEA. IT IS
UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME WHETHER THIS RE-DEVELOPMENT WILL BE DUE TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE PROCESSES OR BAROCLINIC PROCESS. HOWEVER, MARINE
GALE WARNINGS ARE BEING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
IN ANTICIPATION OF THIS DEVELOPMENT.
EVEN THOUGH ARTHUR IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE, HEAVY RAINFALL
AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A MAJOR
HAZARD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
THERE IS ALSO AN INCREASED TORNADO THREAT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THROUGH THURSDAY.
THAT IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON
THIS SYSTEM. RAINFALL FORECASTS FOR THE REMNANTS OF ARTHUR IN THE
UNITED STATES CAN BE FOUND AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML AND OUTLOOKS OF FLASH
FLOOD RISKS CAN BE FOUND AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/EXCESSIVE_RAINFALL_OUTLOOK_ERO.PHP
.
MARINE FORECASTS, INCLUDING GALE WARNINGS, CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE, UNDER AWIPS HEADER
NFDHSFAT1, WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC, AND ONLINE AT
OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/SHTML/NFDHSFAT1.PHP.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. POTENTIALLY LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND URBAN FLOODING
ARE LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA, SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI, SOUTHERN ALABAMA, SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA, AND THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. SCATTERED MINOR RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED MODERATE TO MAJOR RIVER FLOODING. ONGOING
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD PROLONG THE FLOOD THREAT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
2. WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL-STORM FORCE COULD OCCUR ALONG PORTIONS
OF THE LOUISIANA COAST TONIGHT.
3. COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE COASTS OF TEXAS AND LOUISIANA SHOULD
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 18/0300Z 29.7N 94.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BEVEN
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