717  
WTNT41 KNHC 081450  
TCDAT1  
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162017  
1000 AM CDT SUN OCT 08 2017  
 
THE CENTER OF NATE CONTINUES TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD  
OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA. MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR HAS CAUSED MOST OF  
THE DEEP CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAINFALL TO BE DISPLACED TO THE EAST  
AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER, AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT  
NATE HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN. WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL-STORM  
STRENGTH ARE STILL OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF ALABAMA AND THE  
FLORIDA PANHANDLE, BUT THERE ARE NO RECENT REPORTS OF SUSTAINED  
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS. THEREFORE, NATE IS NOW A 30-KT  
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. NATE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON  
MONDAY, AND EXTRATROPICAL BY TUESDAY BEFORE IT IS ABSORBED BY  
FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY FOREAST KEEPS THE WIND SPEED AROUND  
30 KT DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, SINCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE  
ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST ON  
MONDAY WHEN THE POST-TROPICAL LOW APPROACHES THAT AREA.  
 
NATE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO  
NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES DURING THE  
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO TURN  
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD BY TUESDAY BEFORE IT MERGES WITH THE FRONTAL  
SYSTEM.  
 
THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON NATE. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED  
WITH NATE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, THE  
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, AND THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE  
NEXT DAY OR SO. FUTURE INFORMATION ON NATE SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN  
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER BEGINNING  
AT 5 PM EDT, UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT1, WMO HEADER WTNT31 KWNH, AND  
ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV. THESE ADVISORIES WILL  
CONTINUE AS LONG AS NATE POSES A FLOODING THREAT TO THE U.S.  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
1. NATE WILL BRING HEAVY RAINFALL OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED  
TOTALS OF 10 INCHES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM THE CENTRAL  
GULF COAST INTO THE DEEP SOUTH, EASTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY, AND  
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH MONDAY, RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR  
FLASH FLOODING IN THESE AREAS.  
 
2. MOISTURE FROM NATE INTERACTING WITH A FRONTAL ZONE WILL ALSO  
BRING 2 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 7 INCHES ACROSS  
THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WHICH  
WILL INCREASE THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS.  
 
3. WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF  
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE, ALABAMA, AND GEORGIA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.  
 
4. PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP WATER LEVELS ELEVATED ALONG  
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH TODAY. SEE PRODUCTS  
ISSUES BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE FOR  
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS  
 
INIT 08/1500Z 33.1N 87.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND  
12H 09/0000Z 36.2N 85.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND  
24H 09/1200Z 40.1N 79.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND  
36H 10/0000Z 43.1N 72.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW  
48H 10/1200Z 45.0N 65.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP  
72H 11/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT  
 

 
FORECASTER BROWN  
 
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