830  
WTNT41 KNHC 290843  
TCDAT1  
 
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 17  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012018  
400 AM CDT TUE MAY 29 2018  
 
RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT ALBERTO IS MOVING  
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA, AND THE  
ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE PATTERN REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED IN THE RADAR  
DATA. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS, MONTGOMERY HAS REPORTED SUSTAINED  
WINDS NEAR 25 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 KT, SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY  
IS SET TO 25 KT. ALBERTO WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER  
LAND DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD DEGENERATE INTO  
A REMNANT LOW IN 24 H OR LESS. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE  
COMPLETELY BY 96 H, AND SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS  
THIS COULD OCCUR EARLIER.  
 
ALBERTO OR ITS REMNANTS SHOULD ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO  
NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE  
EAST AND SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT, THE  
SYSTEM SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AS IT RECURVES INTO  
THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO  
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS AGAIN CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL  
CONSENSUS TVCN NEAR THE CENTER OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GUIDANCE.  
 
THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON  
ALBERTO. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC  
ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER BEGINNING AT  
10 AM CDT, UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT1, WMO HEADER WTNT31 KWNH, AND ON  
THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV.  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
1. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF FLASH FLOODING  
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE, MUCH OF ALABAMA, AND WESTERN GEORGIA  
OVERNIGHT, SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN GEORGIA, THE  
WESTERN CAROLINAS, AND TENNESSEE TODAY.  
 
2. DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO  
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH  
TODAY.  
 
3. FUTURE ADVISORIES ON ALBERTO WILL BE ISSUED BY THE WEATHER  
PREDICTION CENTER.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS  
 
INIT 29/0900Z 32.3N 86.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND  
12H 29/1800Z 34.1N 87.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND  
24H 30/0600Z 36.8N 87.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND  
36H 30/1800Z 39.8N 87.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW  
48H 31/0600Z 43.1N 85.4W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW  
72H 01/0600Z 49.5N 79.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW  
96H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED  
 

 
FORECASTER BEVEN  
 
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