295  
WTNT42 KNHC 160234  
TCDAT2  
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER 22  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022018  
1100 PM AST SUN JUL 15 2018  
 
DRY AIR AND SHEAR HAS PREVENTED THE REDEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION  
FOR MORE THAN 12 HOURS, AND WHAT LITTLE CONVECTION BERYL HAD EARLY  
THIS MORNING WAS NOT VERY ORGANIZED. AS A RESULT, THE SYSTEM HAS  
BECOME POST-TROPICAL AND THIS WILL BE THE FINAL NHC ADVISORY. THE  
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED ON A SATELLITE INTENSITY  
ESTIMATE OF 25-30 KT FROM TAFB. BERYL IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER  
MARGINALLY WARM SSTS IN THE GULF STREAM OVERNIGHT, BUT SHEAR AND DRY  
AIR ARE EXPECTED TO PREVENT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION FROM  
RETURNING. AFTER THAT TIME, THE REMNANT LOW WILL BE MOVING OVER  
MUCH COLDER WATERS AND A GRADUAL SPIN DOWN IS PREDICTED. THE GLOBAL  
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE REMNANT LOW WILL DISSIPATE NEAR  
SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND ON TUESDAY.  
 
BERYL IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT A FASTER PACE THAN BEFORE OR  
065/11. THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE OVER  
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN LOW- TO MID-LEVEL  
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE  
TRACK MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST  
IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  
 
THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL  
INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS  
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE, UNDER AWIPS HEADER  
NFDHSFAT1, WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC, AND AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT  
HTTPS://OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/SHTML/NFDHSFAT1.SHTML.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS  
 
INIT 16/0300Z 38.6N 62.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL  
12H 16/1200Z 39.9N 60.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW  
24H 17/0000Z 42.6N 57.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW  
36H 17/1200Z 45.5N 55.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW  
48H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED  
 

 
FORECASTER BROWN  
 
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