463
WTNT42 KNHC 130233
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172007
1000 PM EST WED DEC 12 2007
ONCE AGAIN...I HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO TERMINATE ANOTHER TROPICAL
CYCLONE THIS SEASON. SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR FROM PILON CUBA
SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS BECOMING LESS DEFINED.
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS STILL ESTABLISHED...BUT THERE HAS NOT
BEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT PERSISTENT CONVECTION FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS OR
SO. THE CYCLONE IS INITIALIZED AS A 25-KNOT TROPICAL DEPRESSION BUT
FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW VERY SOON...PERHAPS AS WE SPEAK.
THERE IS ALWAYS A CHANCE THAT SOME CONVECTION REDEVELOPS
INTERMITTENTLY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AS THE REMNANT LOW
MOVES WESTWARD ABOUT 10 TO 15 KNOTS ACROSS THE WARM WATERS OF THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. HOWEVER...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE
TOO STRONG TO ALLOW REINTENSIFICATION...FAMOUS LAST WORDS. THE
LOW WILL LIKELY BECOME ABSORBED BY AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IN 3
DAYS OR SO OVER THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON OLGA UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO
HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 13/0300Z 18.9N 77.6W 25 KT
12HR VT 13/1200Z 19.0N 80.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 14/0000Z 19.0N 82.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 14/1200Z 19.5N 83.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 15/0000Z 20.0N 85.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 16/0000Z 22.0N 86.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER AVILA
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