876  
WTNT43 KNHC 302049  
TCDAT3  
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 10  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082016  
500 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016  
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION REMAINS DISORGANIZED.  
THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS ARE NOT WELL ALIGNED, WITH  
CONVECTION CONTINUING ONLY SPORADICALLY NEAR THE CENTER. THE  
INITIAL WIND SPEED REMAINS 30 KT. DESPITE THE LACK OF  
STRENGTHENING, THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS CONDUCIVE FOR SOME  
INTENSIFICATION EVENTUALLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE  
DEPRESSION MOVES NEAR THE GULF STREAM IN LIGHT-TO-MODERATE SHEAR.  
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS REDUCED A LITTLE IN THE SHORT TERM TO  
ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT DISORGANIZED STRUCTURE, THEN NO CHANGE WAS  
MADE TO THE REMAINDER OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST. THE SYSTEM SHOULD  
BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW IN 2 OR 3 DAYS BEFORE THE CYCLONE  
DISSIPATES WITHIN A FRONTAL ZONE.  
 
THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN DRIFTING RECENTLY, BUT IT SHOULD START A SLOW  
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION BY TONIGHT AS IT ENTERS THE MID-LATITUDE  
WESTERLIES. THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW THEN INCREASES, WHICH SHOULD  
CAUSE THE DEPRESSION TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE IS  
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED, AND LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS  
FORECAST.  
 
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS NEARING ITS CLOSEST POINT OF  
APPROACH TO THE OUTER BANKS. WE HAVE ELECTED TO CONTINUE THE  
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THIS ADVISORY, BUT THIS COULD BE LOWERED  
TONIGHT IF A MORE CONSISTENT MOTION AWAY FROM THE COAST BECOMES  
ESTABLISHED.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS  
 
INIT 30/2100Z 34.4N 75.1W 30 KT 35 MPH  
12H 31/0600Z 35.0N 74.8W 30 KT 35 MPH  
24H 31/1800Z 36.3N 72.9W 35 KT 40 MPH  
36H 01/0600Z 38.3N 69.4W 40 KT 45 MPH  
48H 01/1800Z 41.0N 63.0W 45 KT 50 MPH  
72H 02/1800Z 45.0N 49.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP  
96H 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED  
 

 
FORECASTER BLAKE  
 
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