835  
WTNT43 KNHC 250240  
TCDAT3  
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132016  
1100 PM AST SAT SEP 24 2016  
 
NO DEEP CONVECTION WAS OBSERVED NEAR THE CENTER OF LISA BETWEEN  
1200 UTC YESTERDAY AND 0200 UTC TODAY. ALTHOUGH ONE SMALL AREAS OF  
CONVECTION HAS TRIED TO DEVELOP SINCE THEN, IT IS INSUFFICIENT TO  
MEET THE ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION REQUIREMENT FOR A TROPICAL  
CYCLONE. YESTERDAY'S OVERNIGHT BURST OF CONVECTION SEEMS TO HAVE  
BEEN SUPPORTED IN PART BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW, HOWEVER LISA HAS NOW  
MOVED FARTHER TO THE WEST OF THAT FEATURE. IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY  
OTHER SYNOPTIC-SCALE FORCING, THE REDEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD DEEP  
CONVECTION IS UNLIKELY. NO NEW SCATTEROMETER DATA IS AVAILABLE  
TONIGHT, SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD AT 30 KT. WITHOUT  
ANY CONVECTION TO MAINTAIN THE CIRCULATION, LISA SHOULD GRADUALLY  
SPIN DOWN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE DISSIPATING AHEAD OF A  
DEEP-LAYER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.  
 
THE LOW-LEVEL REMNANTS OF LISA ARE MOVING AROUND A HIGH PRESSURE  
SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD  
AGREEMENT THAT THIS HIGH WILL MOVE RETREAT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT  
DAY OR SO, WHICH SHOULD CAUSE LISA TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IN  
12-24 HOURS. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE  
APPROACHING FRONT IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CIRCULATION DISSIPATES  
ENTIRELY.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS  
 
INIT 25/0300Z 25.8N 40.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW  
12H 25/1200Z 27.2N 42.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW  
24H 26/0000Z 29.3N 42.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW  
36H 26/1200Z 31.4N 42.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW  
48H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED  
 

 
FORECASTER BEVEN/ZELINSKY  
 
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