920
WTNT44 KNHC 021448
TCDAT4
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IMELDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092025
1100 AM AST THU OCT 02 2025
IMELDA IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND
GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS INDICATE THAT A FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE CENTER OF
THE CYCLONE FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST, WHILE ANOTHER FRONTAL FEATURE
HAS DEVELOPED TO THE SOUTH OF THE CYCLONE. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH
OVERNIGHT MICROWAVE DATA THAT SHOWED IMELDA TAKING THE APPEARANCE OF
AN OCCLUDED CYCLONE, AS WELL AS RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS THAT SHOW
THE REMAINING CONVECTION IS MAINLY FOCUSED ALONG THESE FRONTS.
THEREFORE, IMELDA IS CLASSIFIED AS A 65-KT EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE
THIS MORNING, AND THIS WILL BE THE FINAL NHC ADVISORY ON THE SYSTEM.
POST-TROPICAL IMELDA IS RACING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST (075/25
KT) AWAY FROM BERMUDA. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD
ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN ATLANTIC, THEN TURN BACK TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST BY
SUNDAY WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN
MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THAN YESTERDAY, AND THE NHC FORECAST LIES NEAR
THE CENTER OF THE ENVELOPE BETWEEN THE HCCA AND TVCA AIDS.
BAROCLINIC FORCING FROM THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE
CYCLONE TO REMAIN A LARGE, STORM-FORCE LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EVEN
THOUGH THE PEAK WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH, A LARGE
AREA OF 34- AND 50-KT WINDS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS
AND LARGE SWELL THAT WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AN EXPANSIVE PORTION OF
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE, UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1, WMO
HEADER FZNT01 KWBC, AND ONLINE AT
OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/SHTML/NFDHSFAT1.PHP
KEY MESSAGES:
1. GUSTY WINDS OVER BERMUDA WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY.
2. SWELLS AND HIGH SURF FROM IMELDA ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS ALONG MUCH OF THE EAST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/1500Z 33.2N 59.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 03/0000Z 34.3N 55.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 03/1200Z 36.3N 51.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 04/0000Z 38.9N 49.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 04/1200Z 41.7N 47.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 05/0000Z 44.6N 44.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 05/1200Z 47.1N 40.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 06/1200Z 50.0N 30.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER REINHART
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