586
WTNT44 KNHC 302046
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142007
500 PM EDT SUN SEP 30 2007
AS WAS THE CASE WITH INGRID...AND KAREN...WESTERLY SHEAR HAS CAUSED
ANOTHER TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE ATLANTIC TO WEAKEN.
MELISSA HAS CONTINUED TO PRODUCE FEW VERY SMALL CLUSTERS OF
CONVECTION TODAY...EACH OF WHICH HAS LASTED ONLY A FEW HOURS.
SINCE MELISSA HAS BEEN UNABLE TO PRODUCE ORGANIZED CONVECTION DURING
THE PAST 12-18 HOURS...IT NO LONGER CLASSIFIES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST NHC ADVISORY.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/12. THE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED
TO BE STEERED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC. THE REMNANT LOW...IF IT SURVIVES FOR A COUPLE OF
DAYS...MAY TURN MORE NORTHWESTWARD AS IT APPROACHES THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 30/2100Z 16.3N 34.0W 25 KT
12HR VT 01/0600Z 16.7N 35.9W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 01/1800Z 17.7N 38.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 02/0600Z 18.9N 40.7W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 02/1800Z 20.5N 42.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BROWN
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