044  
WTNT45 KNHC 180856  
TCDAT5  
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 57  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016  
500 AM AST TUE OCT 18 2016  
 
NICOLE IS FINALLY LOSING ITS TROPICAL CYCLONE CHARACTERISTICS AS IT  
MERGES WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE COLD WATERS OF THE NORTH  
ATLANTIC. THE CIRCULATION IS BECOMING ELONGATED WITH THE REMAINING  
DEEP CONVECTION IN A BAND WELL TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THE  
INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 55 KT BASED ON A COMBINATION OF  
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA.  
THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL  
TRANSITION IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, THE IT SHOULD CONTINUE AS A  
VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL STORM THROUGH 36 HOURS BEFORE IT IS ABSORBED  
BY ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOW.  
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 030/27. THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE QUICKLY  
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ON THE EAST SIDE ON A DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER  
THE LABRADOR SEA UNTIL THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES.  
 
THE MAIN HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL  
CONTINUE TO BE THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH SEAS. SWELLS FROM THE SYSTEM  
WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC BASIN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE  
OF DAYS.  
 
THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON NICOLE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL  
HURRICANE CENTER. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE  
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE,  
UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1, WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC, AND AVAILABLE  
ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.OPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/SHTML/NFDHSFAT1.SHTML.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS  
 
INIT 18/0900Z 47.1N 39.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL  
12H 18/1800Z 51.7N 36.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP  
24H 19/0600Z 57.0N 35.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP  
36H 19/1800Z 62.0N 33.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP  
48H 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED  
 

 
FORECASTER BEVEN  
 
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