787  
WTNT45 KNHC 302035  
TCDAT5  
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 59  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017  
500 PM AST SAT SEP 30 2017  
 
ACTIVE DEEP CONVECTION AT THE CENTER OF MARIA APPEARS TO HAVE CEASED  
THIS MORNING AFTER THE CYCLONE CROSSED A SHARP SST GRADIENT, AND  
SSTS BELOW 23 DEG C ARE UNLIKELY TO ALLOW PERSISTENT CONVECTION TO  
REDEVELOP. RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM A LATE  
ARRIVING ASCAT PASS AT 1348 UTC INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A SHARP  
WIND SHIFT EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE CENTER OF MARIA WELL TO THE  
NORTHEAST, SUGGESTING THAT THE CYCLONE HAS ACQUIRED FRONTAL  
CHARACTERISTICS. BASED ON THIS, MARIA IS NOW CLASSIFIED AS  
EXTRATROPICAL, AND THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY.  
 
THE EARLIER ASCAT DATA WAS USED AS THE BASIS FOR THE INITIAL  
INTENSITY OF 45 KT. MARIA HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE QUICKLY TOWARD THE  
EAST-NORTHEAST, AND ALL OF THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE  
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE ON THIS TRACK FOR THE NEXT DAY  
OR TWO. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED UNTIL DISSIPATION OCCURS  
WITHIN A LARGER FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IN ABOUT 48  
HOURS. THE NHC FORECAST INCORPORATES GUIDANCE FROM NOAA'S OCEAN  
PREDICTION CENTER.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS  
 
INIT 30/2100Z 42.0N 43.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL  
12H 01/0600Z 43.8N 39.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP  
24H 01/1800Z 46.4N 31.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP  
36H 02/0600Z 48.9N 23.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP  
48H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED  
 

 
FORECASTER ZELINSKY  
 
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