267  
WTNT45 KNHC 240256  
TCDAT5  
 
HURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 32  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017  
1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 23 2017  
 
ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT, THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME MORE IMPRESSIVE  
WITH A DISTINCT EYE OF 30 N MI IN DIAMETER SURROUNDED BY A RING OF  
VERY DEEP CONVECTION. WIND DATA SAMPLED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE  
THIS EVENING PERHAPS DO NOT JUSTIFY WINDS AS HIGH AS 100 KT.  
HOWEVER, SINCE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DROPPED TO 942 MB, AND BOTH  
OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY DUE  
TO THE IMPROVEMENT OF THE CLOUD PATTERN, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS  
KEPT AT 100 KT IN THIS ADVISORY. DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE  
MARIA IS MOVING THROUGH A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER WARM  
WATERS, SLIGHT STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR. HOWEVER, THIS WILL NOT BE  
A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE, AND I HAVE OPTED TO SHOW MARIA WITH THE SAME  
INTENSITY FOR ABOUT A DAY OR SO. FROM 36 HOURS AND BEYOND, THE  
HURRICANE WILL FIND COOLER WATERS AND GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD THEN  
BEGIN.  
 
SATELLITE AND RECON FIXES INDICATE THAT THE HURRICANE IS MOVING  
TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 KT, STEERED BY THE FLOW BETWEEN  
THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND A CUT-OFF LOW/TROUGH DIGGING  
SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS  
FORECAST TO AMPLIFY, AND THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP MARIA MOVING  
SLOWLY NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS. AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE  
SLIDES EASTWARD, MARIA WILL ENCOUNTER THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES  
AND SHOULD RECURVE AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES COAST. THE TRACK  
GUIDANCE UNANIMOUSLY BRINGS THE HURRICANE NORTHWARD TO NEAR LATITUDE  
34N WHERE RECURVATURE SHOULD OCCUR. THE UNCERTAINTY IS HOW CLOSE TO  
THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST MARIA'S TURN WILL OCCUR. AT THIS TIME AND  
WITH THE CURRENT GUIDANCE, THE CORE OF MARIA SHOULD TURN NORTHEAST  
WELL EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS. HOWEVER, MARIA IS A LARGE CYCLONE AND  
THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD A GREAT DISTANCE.  
THESE WINDS COULD EVENTUALLY REACH A PORTION OF THE NORTH CAROLINA  
COAST. THE NHC FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND  
FOLLOWS VERY CLOSELY THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE CORRECTED  
CONSENSUS HCCA.  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
1. MARIA'S FORECAST TRACK CONTINUES TO BE NORTHWARD, PARALLELING THE  
U.S. EAST COAST, AND IT IS LIKELY THAT SOME DIRECT IMPACTS WILL  
OCCUR ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST NEXT WEEK. INTERESTS ALONG THE  
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND THE MID-ATLANTIC SHOULD MONITOR THE  
PROGRESS OF MARIA, AS TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCHES MAY BE  
NEEDED FOR PART OF THIS AREA ON SUNDAY.  
 
2. SWELLS FROM MARIA ARE INCREASING ALONG THE COAST OF THE  
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE  
MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE  
DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS AT THE BEACH THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT  
WEEK. FOR MORE INFORMATION, PLEASE MONITOR INFORMATION FROM YOUR  
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS  
 
INIT 24/0300Z 27.0N 72.5W 100 KT 115 MPH  
12H 24/1200Z 28.2N 72.7W 100 KT 115 MPH  
24H 25/0000Z 29.5N 73.0W 100 KT 115 MPH  
36H 25/1200Z 30.5N 73.1W 95 KT 110 MPH  
48H 26/0000Z 31.5N 73.2W 90 KT 105 MPH  
72H 27/0000Z 33.2N 73.3W 80 KT 90 MPH  
96H 28/0000Z 34.5N 72.7W 70 KT 80 MPH  
120H 29/0000Z 35.5N 69.0W 65 KT 75 MPH  
 

 
FORECASTER AVILA  
 
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