017  
WTPZ43 KNHC 152035  
TCDEP3  
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 25  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032018  
300 PM MDT FRI JUN 15 2018  
 
BUD HAS BEEN WITHOUT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION SINCE AROUND 0600  
UTC, AND IS NOW A REMNANT LOW. AN EARLIER ASCAT-B PASS AROUND 1640  
UTC SHOWED AN AREA OF 30-35 KT WINDS WELL EAST OF THE CENTER OFF THE  
COAST BETWEEN ALTATA AND TOPOLOBAMPO, BUT SOME OF THESE WINDS COULD  
HAVE BEEN TOPOGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30  
KT FOR THIS FINAL ADVISORY. THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN  
AND THEN DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER LANDFALL.  
 
ASCAT DATA AND VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE INITIAL MOTION IS A  
BIT TO THE LEFT OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES, WITH THE CURRENT ESTIMATE  
355/09. THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH  
DISSIPATION BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND AN APPROACHING  
LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST.  
 
ALTHOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF BUD IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE  
ON SATURDAY, THE ASSOCIATED REMNANT MOISTURE PLUME IS EXPECTED TO  
SPREAD NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE  
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THROUGH SATURDAY, RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT  
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THOSE AREAS. FOR FURTHER  
INFORMATION ON THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT, PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED  
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS  
 
INIT 15/2100Z 25.9N 110.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL  
12H 16/0600Z 27.3N 110.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND  
24H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED  
 

 
FORECASTER BRENNAN  
 
 
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