163
WTPZ43 KNHC 092033
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032026
300 PM CST TUE JUN 09 2026
CONVECTION HAS INCREASED TODAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH CRISTINA, AND
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NOW CONCEALED UNDER THE EDGE OF THE
CONVECTIVE OVERCAST. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO A DECREASE IN THE
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE CYCLONE. HOWEVER,
THE CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY POORLY ORGANIZED, AND MOST OF THE
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE IN THE 30-40 KT RANGE. BASED
ON THESE ESTIMATES, THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT.
THE CENTER CONTINUES TO DRIFT ERRATICALLY NEAR THE NORTHWEST
COAST OF NICARAGUA. WHILE THE FUTURE TRACK REMAINS UNCERTAIN, THE
LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THE
CYCLONE WILL STAY OFFSHORE FOR AT LEAST 24 H AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. A
SUBSEQUENT MORE NORTHWESTERLY MOTION WOULD BRING THE CENTER INLAND
IN ABOUT 36 H. AFTER LANDFALL, A NORTHWESTERLY MOTION IS EXPECTED
UNTIL THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. THE NEW FORECAST
TRACK IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 24 H, AND
AFTER THAT IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK.
DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF DECREASED SHEAR AND SPENDING MORE TIME
OVER WATER, THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGESTS SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR DURING THE NEXT DAY OR DO. THE NEW
INTENSITY FORECAST NOW SHOWS A 40-KT INTENSITY IN 24 H, WHICH IS
NEAR THE HIGH END OF THE GUIDANCE. AFTER THAT, CRISTINA IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN DUE TO LAND INTERACTION, WITH THE CYCLONE FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY 60 H.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WILL
IMPACT COASTAL PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
2. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS, ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA, EL SALVADOR, AND HONDURAS
TODAY AND TONIGHT.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/2100Z 12.7N 87.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 12.8N 88.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 13.0N 88.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 13.5N 89.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 11/1800Z 14.3N 89.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
60H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BEVEN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page