578  
WTPZ44 KNHC 291456  
TCDEP4  
 
TROPICAL STORM ULIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192016  
800 AM PDT THU SEP 29 2016  
 
ULIKA'S CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES TO HAVE A SHEARED APPEARANCE THIS  
MORNING, WITH ONLY A SMALL AREA OF BURSTING DEEP CONVECTION TO THE  
EAST OF THE ESTIMATED LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATION. THE INITIAL  
INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KT, WHICH IS A BLEND OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM  
SAB AND TAFB. A VERY HOSTILE DYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT LIES AHEAD OF  
ULIKA, WITH WESTERLY SHEAR FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 40-50 KT IN 36  
HOURS. GIVEN SUCH UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD  
DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY THE WEEKEND, OR SOONER.  
 
THE CYCLONE HAS TURNED TOWARD THE NORTHWEST, AND THE INITIAL MOTION  
IS ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 320/6 KT. THE FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE  
OF A WEAK LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD CAUSE ULIKA TO TURN TOWARD  
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND THEN WEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE  
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS BETWEEN THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF TRACKS  
AND ONLY A LITTLE BIT NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.  
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY ON ULIKA WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC  
HURRICANE CENTER.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS  
 
INIT 29/1500Z 16.7N 139.7W 40 KT 45 MPH  
12H 30/0000Z 17.3N 140.4W 35 KT 40 MPH  
24H 30/1200Z 17.8N 141.8W 30 KT 35 MPH  
36H 01/0000Z 18.0N 143.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW  
48H 01/1200Z 18.0N 145.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW  
72H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED  
 

 
FORECASTER PASCH  
 
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