844  
WTPZ44 KNHC 150840  
TCDEP4  
 
TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 35  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042016  
200 AM PDT FRI JUL 15 2016  
 
ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A RECENT SSMIS MICROWAVE OVERPASS  
SHOW ALL THAT REMAINS OF CELIA'S DEEP CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN IS A  
FRAGMENTED CURVED BAND DISPLACED ABOUT 60 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE  
EXPOSED CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40  
KT, BUT IS QUITE A BIT HIGHER THAN THE SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE  
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE 45-50 KT WINDS THAT WERE  
DEPICTED IN THE EARLIER 14/1912 UTC ASCAT PASS. CELIA SHOULD  
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN, DUE TO THE SUB-24C SSTS AND THE  
SURROUNDING STABLE AIR MASS, AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY  
TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE LATEST REMOTE SENSING SYSTEM'S LATEST SST  
ANALYSIS INDICATES SLIGHTLY WARMER SSTS OF 25-26C AHEAD OF CELIA,  
THE GLOBAL MODELS STILL SHOW INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR IN 36 HOURS,  
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO HAMPER ANY REGENERATION POTENTIAL. THE  
INTENSITY FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS  
HEDGED TOWARD THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE GFS/ECMWF  
LARGE-SCALE MODELS.  
 
CELIA HAS BEEN MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 285/11 KT. THE  
CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO TURN WESTWARD LATER TODAY AS IT WEAKENS  
FURTHER, BECOMING A SHALLOW SYSTEM, AND IS STEERED BY THE  
LOW-LEVEL TRADES. THE MODEL GUIDANCE REFLECTS THIS SCENARIO WELL  
AND THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST SPLITS BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST  
TRACK AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.  
 
CELIA HAS MOVED INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN. THEREFORE, THIS IS  
THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.  
SUBSEQUENT ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC  
HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU, HAWAII.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS  
 
INIT 15/0900Z 22.0N 140.2W 40 KT 45 MPH  
12H 15/1800Z 22.2N 142.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL  
24H 16/0600Z 22.4N 144.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW  
36H 16/1800Z 22.7N 146.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW  
48H 17/0600Z 23.2N 148.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW  
72H 18/0600Z 24.1N 153.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW  
96H 19/0600Z 25.0N 158.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW  
120H 20/0600Z 26.3N 163.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW  
 

 
FORECASTER ROBERTS  
 
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