679  
WTPZ44 KNHC 032032  
TCDEP4  
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 14  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092016  
200 PM PDT WED AUG 03 2016  
 
HOWARD'S DEEP CONVECTION HAS NOW BEEN GONE LONG ENOUGH TO DESIGNATE  
THE SYSTEM AS POST-TROPICAL, AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY.  
THE WIND SPEED IS SET TO 30 KT, IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE LOW-END  
ESTIMATE FROM ASCAT A FEW HOURS AGO OF 30 TO 35 KT. THE CIRCULATION  
OF HOWARD SHOULD GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE TO  
COLD WATER TEMPERATURES, INCREASING SHEAR AND ENTRAINMENT OF DRY  
MID-LEVEL AIR. A STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC SHOULD  
CAUSE AN ENHANCED GRADIENT, LEADING TO STRONGER WINDS ON THE  
NORTHERN SIDE OF HOWARD THAN NORMALLY WOULD BE EXPECTED. THE  
OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS THIS SOLUTION, WHICH IS A BIT HIGHER THAN  
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  
 
HOWARD IS MOVING 290/14, AND SHOULD TURN WESTWARD BY TOMORROW UNDER  
THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE  
SHOULD TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD IN A COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO THE  
ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE, AND OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH IN 4 OR 5 DAYS  
WHILE THE SYSTEM IS NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. GUIDANCE REMAINS IN  
GOOD AGREEMENT, AND ONLY A SMALL SOUTHWARD TRACK CHANGE WAS MADE  
IN THE NEW NHC TRACK PREDICTION.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS  
 
INIT 03/2100Z 21.3N 135.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW  
12H 04/0600Z 21.7N 137.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW  
24H 04/1800Z 22.1N 140.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW  
36H 05/0600Z 22.3N 143.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW  
48H 05/1800Z 22.3N 146.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW  
72H 06/1800Z 22.0N 151.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW  
96H 07/1800Z 21.5N 156.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW  
120H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED  
 

 
FORECASTER BLAKE  
 
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