016  
WTPZ44 KNHC 190235  
TCDEP4  
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042018  
1000 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2018  
 
A 2239Z SSMI/S MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATED THAT A SMALL MID-LEVEL  
CIRCULATION REMAINED, BUT CARLOTTA'S LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WAS  
EITHER VERY SMALL AND INDISTINCT, OR IT WAS LOCATED ALONG THE COAST  
OF MEXICO. FOR THIS, THE FINAL ADVISORY, IT IS ASSUMED THAT THE  
LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS BENEATH THE REMNANT MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE  
UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION NOTED IN HI-RES GOES-16 VISIBLE IMAGERY HAS  
CONTINUED TO MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD AND DECOUPLE FROM THE REST OF THE  
CIRCULATION, AND WHAT LITTLE CONVECTION THAT DOES EXIST IS RATHER  
AMORPHOUS-LOOKING AND DISORGANIZED. BASED ON THE DISHEVELED  
APPEARANCE OF THE SYSTEM, CARLOTTA IS CONSIDERED TO BE A REMNANT LOW  
PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH 20-KT WINDS.  
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/03 KT. STEERING CURRENTS ARE  
WEAK AND THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE TINY CYCLONE SHOULD PREVENT  
CARLOTTA'S REMNANT CIRCULATION FROM MOVING INLAND OVER THE HIGH  
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. AS A RESULT, THE SYSTEM  
IS FORECAST TO DRIFT NORTHWESTWARD AND SKIRT THE COAST OF MEXICO  
FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS UNTIL DISSIPATION OR ABSORPTION INTO THE  
MONSOON TROUGH OCCURS SOME TIME ON TUESDAY.  
 
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME INTERMITTENT SHORT-LIVED BURSTS OF  
CONVECTION, PROXIMITY TO LAND, MODEST NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND  
SHEAR, AND DRY MID-LEVEL AIR SHOULD PREVENT THE REMNANT LOW FROM  
REGENERATING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  
 
ALTHOUGH CARLOTTA IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE, AN ABUNDANCE OF  
TROPICAL MOISTURE FLOWING INLAND FROM THE PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO  
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS, ALONG WITH LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND  
MUDSLIDES OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATES OF GUERRERO,  
MICHOACAN, AND COLIMA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. CONSULT PRODUCTS  
ISSUED BY THE MEXICAN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.  
 
THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON CARLOTTA ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL  
HURRICANE CENTER. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW...  
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS  
 
INIT 19/0300Z 18.2N 103.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL  
12H 19/1200Z 18.4N 104.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW  
24H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED  
 

 
FORECASTER STEWART  
 
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