449  
WTPZ44 KNHC 080242  
TCDEP4  
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SIMON DISCUSSION NUMBER 26  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014  
800 PM PDT TUE OCT 07 2014  
 
SIMON HAS BEEN DEVOID OF ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION FOR MORE THAN 12  
HOURS. STRONG SHEAR AND AN UNFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT  
SHOULD PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION, AND THE  
SYSTEM IS BEING DECLARED A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW AT THIS TIME.  
BASED ON EARLIER ASCAT DATA, THE INITIAL WIND SPEED REMAINS 30  
KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE LOW SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR  
SO, AND THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BECOME  
AN OPEN TROUGH WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS AS IT INTERACTS WITH LAND.  
 
THE LOW HAS TURNED NORTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING WITH AN INITIAL MOTION  
ESTIMATE OF 040/6 KT. A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN  
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED UNTIL DISSIPATION OCCURS. THIS WILL TAKE  
THE CYCLONE, OR ITS REMNANT, ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA  
AND INTO MAINLAND MEXICO.  
 
EVEN IF SIMON OR ITS REMNANT SURFACE CIRCULATION DOES NOT MAKE IT  
ACROSS THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA, MOISTURE  
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE  
NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA, NORTHWESTERN MEXICO, AND INTO  
THE U.S. DESERT SOUTHWEST, WHICH COULD TRIGGER HEAVY RAINS IN THOSE  
REGIONS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE REFER TO STATEMENTS  
FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR INFORMATION ON HAZARDS SPECIFIC  
TO YOUR AREA.  
 
THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER  
ON SIMON. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE  
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER  
AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS  
 
INIT 08/0300Z 28.1N 115.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW  
12H 08/1200Z 28.9N 114.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW  
24H 09/0000Z 30.5N 113.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW  
36H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED  
 

 
FORECASTER BROWN  
 
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