651  
WTPZ44 KNHC 080851  
TCDEP4  
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 24  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014  
200 AM PDT MON SEP 08 2014  
 
THERE HAS BEEN NO ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN NORBERT'S  
CIRCULATION FOR MORE THAN 12 HOURS NOW, SO THE SYSTEM IS BEING  
DECLARED A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED  
TO 35 KT IN BASIC AGREEMENT WITH A 0524 UTC ASCAT-B OVERPASS THAT  
INDICATED WIND VECTORS OF AROUND 32 KT IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT.  
SINCE NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER EVEN COOLER WATERS, IT IS  
PRESUMED THAT A FASTER RATE OF DECAY SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE NEXT  
COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH DISSIPATION FORECAST IN 2-3 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL  
WIND SPEED FORECAST SHOWS SLIGHTLY FASTER WEAKENING THAN THE  
PREVIOUS ONE, WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT THE REMNANT LOW OF NORBERT  
WILL BE VERY WEAK WHEN IT APPROACHES THE NORTH-CENTRAL BAJA  
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.  
 
NORBERT HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OR 320/5 KT. THE POST-  
TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST DURING  
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AHEAD OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH ADVANCING  
EASTWARD OFFSHORE OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. IN 2-3 DAYS, THE SHALLOW  
REMNANT CIRCULATION SHOULD BE PUSHED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OR EASTWARD  
BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TOWARD THE COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA  
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA PRIOR TO DISSIPATION. THE OFFICIAL TRACK  
FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IN BEST  
AGREEMENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE.  
 
ALTHOUGH NORBERT IS WEAKENING, TROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO  
SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED  
STATES. THIS COULD RESULT IN HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH  
FLOODING IN THESE AREA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. PLEASE SEE  
INFORMATION FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.  
 
THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER  
ON NORBERT. FOR FUTURE INFORMATION ON THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE,  
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEP1 AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS  
 
INIT 08/0900Z 27.4N 118.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL  
12H 08/1800Z 27.7N 118.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW  
24H 09/0600Z 28.5N 118.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW  
36H 09/1800Z 29.0N 117.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW  
48H 10/0600Z 29.3N 116.9W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW  
72H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED  
 

 
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN  
 
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