702  
WTPZ44 KNHC 271435  
TCDEP4  
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER 51  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015  
800 AM PDT TUE OCT 27 2015  
 
GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS DEVOID  
OF DEEP CONVECTION, SO OLAF IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND  
ADVISORIES ARE BEING DISCONTINUED AT THIS TIME. DATA FROM A RECENT  
SCATTEROMETER OVERPASS SHOWED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION  
IS BECOMING ELONGATED, BUT THE SYSTEM IS STILL PRODUCING WINDS TO  
GALE FORCE. WITH THE LACK OF CONVECTION OR STRONG BAROCLINIC  
FORCING, THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN AND DISSIPATE  
IN A FEW DAYS.  
 
THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS BEEN MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD, OR  
060/9 KT. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE  
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SHOULD  
CAUSE A TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST-SOUTHWEST BY TOMORROW.  
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ALSO SHOWS THIS TURN, ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT  
QUITE AS FAST AS THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.  
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON OLAF, PLEASE SEE HIGH SEASFORECASTS  
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE, UNDER AWIPS HEADER  
NFDHSFEPI, WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC, AND ON THE WEB AT  
HTTP://WWW.OPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/SHTML/NFDHSFEP1.SHTML.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS  
 
INIT 27/1500Z 26.7N 135.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL  
12H 28/0000Z 26.9N 134.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW  
24H 28/1200Z 26.2N 134.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW  
36H 29/0000Z 25.4N 136.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW  
48H 29/1200Z 25.0N 138.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW  
72H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED  
 

 
FORECASTER PASCH  
 
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