339  
WTPZ44 KNHC 232037  
TCDEP4  
 
TROPICAL STORM HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 10  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092017  
400 PM CDT SUN JUL 23 2017  
 
HILARY CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE  
IMAGES, WITH A SMALL CENTRAL CORE AND A HINT OF AN EYE DIMPLE TRYING  
TO FORM IN THE VISIBLE CHANNEL. A BLEND OF SATELLITE ESTIMATES  
SUPPORTED AROUND 45 KT AT 18Z, BUT SINCE THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION  
HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE, THE ADVISORY WIND SPEED IS SET TO 50 KT.  
 
THE STORM IS FORECAST TO BE WITHIN A LOW SHEAR, WARM WATER, AND HIGH  
MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE  
SHIPS GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THESE CONDITIONS BY SHOWING A 55-PERCENT  
CHANCE OF A 55-KT INCREASE IN WINDS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE  
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ABOVE, INCLUDING THE SMALL INNER CORE, STRONGLY  
POINTS TO HILARY RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING DURING THAT TIME. THUS, THE  
LATEST NHC FORECAST IS INCREASED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE, SHOWING  
RAPID INTENSIFICATION, AND ENDS UP ABOVE THE MODEL CONSENSUS, BUT  
NOT AS HIGH AS THE HFIP CORRECTED CONSENSUS OR HWRF MODELS. LATE IN  
THE PERIOD, AN INCREASE IN NORTHERLY SHEAR, POSSIBLY ENHANCED BY  
OUTFLOW FROM TS IRWIN, ALONG WITH MORE MARGINAL SSTS SHOULD CAUSE  
SOME WEAKENING LATE IN THE PERIOD.  
 
HILARY IS MOVING SLOWER NOW TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KT.  
A RIDGE OVER MEXICO SHOULD STEER HILARY IN THAT GENERAL DIRECTION  
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH SOME INCREASE IN SPEED BY 48 HOURS  
AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY. LATE IN THE PERIOD, THERE IS A  
POSSIBILITY OF SOME BINARY INTERACTION WITH IRWIN, WHICH ADDS SOME  
UNCERTAINTY TO THE TRACK FORECAST. WHILE SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE  
HAS JUMPED AROUND DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE CONSENSUS AIDS ARE  
VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST, SO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE  
HAS BEEN MADE TO THE LATEST NHC PREDICTION.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS  
 
INIT 23/2100Z 13.2N 102.9W 50 KT 60 MPH  
12H 24/0600Z 13.6N 103.9W 60 KT 70 MPH  
24H 24/1800Z 14.3N 105.2W 75 KT 85 MPH  
36H 25/0600Z 15.0N 106.7W 90 KT 105 MPH  
48H 25/1800Z 15.8N 108.5W 105 KT 120 MPH  
72H 26/1800Z 17.0N 112.5W 105 KT 120 MPH  
96H 27/1800Z 18.0N 116.5W 90 KT 105 MPH  
120H 28/1800Z 19.0N 120.0W 80 KT 90 MPH  
 

 
FORECASTER BLAKE  
 
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