225  
WTPZ45 KNHC 060233  
TCDEP5  
 
HURRICANE HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 23  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102018  
800 PM PDT SUN AUG 05 2018  
 
HECTOR HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE THE PREVIOUS SPECIAL  
ADVISORY, AND THE VARIOUS SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE IN THE  
115-125 KT RANGE. BASED ON THESE DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY  
REMAINS 120 KT. THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE CYCLONE OVER AN AREA  
OF COOLER WATER BETWEEN 24-60 H AND INTO A DRIER AIR MASS AFTER 60  
H, AND BASED ON THIS THE INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES THE TREND OF  
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN SHOWING A GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH THE  
FORECAST PERIOD. THERE ARE TWO CAVEATS TO THIS FORECAST, HOWEVER.  
THE FIRST IS THAT HECTOR WILL MOVE OVER WARMER WATER AFTER 60 H, AND  
THE HWRF AMD LGEM MODELS ARE SUGGESTING RE-INTENSIFICATION COULD  
OCCUR FROM 96-120 H. SECOND, THE ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT EASTERLY  
SHEAR AND MODERATE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES COULD ALLOW HECTOR TO  
EVOLVE INTO AN ANNULAR HURRICANE, WHICH WOULD CAUSE IT TO STAY MORE  
INTENSE THAN THE GUIDANCE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ARE INDICATING.  
 
THE HURRICANE IS STARTING A NORTHWARD NUDGE THAT THE TRACK MODELS  
HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING, AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 280/12. THE  
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF HECTOR SHOULD STEER IT  
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED FOR THE NEXT  
24-36 H, FOLLOWED BY A MORE WESTERLY MOTION TO THE SOUTH OF THE  
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TRACK  
GUIDANCE HAS BECOME LESS DIVERGENT SINCE YESTERDAY, AND THE NEW  
FORECAST TRACK LIES NEAR THE CENTER OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  
 
WHILE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK CONTINUES TO LIE SOUTH OF THE  
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, ONLY A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE  
FORECAST TRACK WOULD SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON THE  
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. NOW IS A GOOD TIME FOR EVERYONE IN THE HAWAIIAN  
ISLANDS TO ENSURE THAT THEY HAVE THEIR HURRICANE PLAN IN PLACE. FOR  
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON ANY POTENTIAL LOCAL IMPACTS FROM HECTOR IN  
HAWAII, PLEASE REFER TO PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER FORECAST  
OFFICE IN HONOLULU AT: HTTP://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/HNL .  
 
THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON  
HECTOR. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC  
ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER BEGINNING  
AT 11 PM HST, UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCPCP1, WMO HEADER WTPA31 PHFO,  
AND ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/CPHC .  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS  
 
INIT 06/0300Z 14.7N 139.2W 120 KT 140 MPH  
12H 06/1200Z 15.1N 141.1W 120 KT 140 MPH  
24H 07/0000Z 15.8N 144.1W 115 KT 130 MPH  
36H 07/1200Z 16.2N 147.0W 105 KT 120 MPH  
48H 08/0000Z 16.6N 150.3W 95 KT 110 MPH  
72H 09/0000Z 17.0N 156.5W 90 KT 105 MPH  
96H 10/0000Z 17.0N 162.5W 85 KT 100 MPH  
120H 11/0000Z 17.5N 168.0W 85 KT 100 MPH  
 

 
FORECASTER BEVEN  
 
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