857
FEUS25 KRNO 022337
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
330 PM PST THU MAR 2 2006
SHORT TERM
SNOW DIMINISHING TEMPORARILY ACROSS RENO AND TAHOE THIS AFTN AS
COLD FRONT LOSES SOME UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT. LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW
SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THEN INCREASE MIDDAY FRIDAY
MORNING AS NEG TILT UPPER TROUGH AND COLD POOL TRACK ACROSS AREA.
STILL LOOKING FOR HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN SIERRA WITH AN
ADDITIONAL 6-12 INCHES AT LAKE LEVEL AND 12 TO 18 INCHES ALONG
THE SIERRA CREST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. BANDS OF HEAVIER
SNOW WILL BE PUSHING INTO RENO AND CARSON CITY ON FRIDAY WITH
AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES ON THE VALLEY FLOORS WITH 3 TO 6
INCHES ABOVE 5000 FEET BY FRIDAY EVENING. WS WARNINGS EXTENDED
TROUGH 10 PM FRIDAY EVENING BASED ON LATEST RH/QPF TRENDS. A
BRIEF BREAK ON SATURDAY TO PREPARE FOR A STRONGER AND WETTER
SYSTEM SPREADING PCPN INTO AREA LATE SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NRN GULF OF ALASKA HAS A GOOD TAP
OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IN ADDITIONS TO COLD AIR AND JET
SUPPORT. HPC SHOWING NEARLY 4 INCHES OF QPF IN NRN SIERRA
FROM 12Z SUN TIL 12Z TUESDAY. MOST OF QPF SHOULD BE SNOW
EXCEPT FOR WARM SECTOR PCPN ON SUNDAY AFTN AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WHEN SNOW LEVELS START OUT AROUND 6000 FEET BEFORE LOWERING
TO NEAR 5000 FEET OR MOST VALLEY FLOORS MONDAY MORNING.
CYLKE
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MODELS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS
CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AND REMAINS NEAR THE WEST COAST UNTIL ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
DROPS SOUTH AND BRINGS ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR AND A KICKER THAT
EVENTUALLY PUSHES THE TROUGH SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY AND INTO THE SWRN
U.S. ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING MORE WET WEATHER TO THE AREA.
SNOW LEVELS NEAR 5000 FEET ON MONDAY WILL LOWER TO ALL VALLEY FLOORS
BY TUESDAY AS COLDER AIR DROPS DOWN. SNOW ACCUMULATION IS UNCERTAIN
RIGHT NOW AS IT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON SNOW LEVELS AND TIME OF
DAY OF HEAVIEST PRECIP. THE GFS QPF AMOUNTS ARE OVER 2-3 INCHES
LIQUID FOR THIS STORM...THEREFORE WINTER WEATHER WATCH STATEMENTS
MAY BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AT LEAST FOR
THE SIERRA. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS TAKE A LOOK AT THIS AS THE SYSTEM
THIS WEEK WRAPS UP ON FRIDAY. THIS STORM LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH BY
WEDNESDAY WITH A BRIEF BREAK BEFORE YET ANOTHER SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH
FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA BY THURSDAY. MODELS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF
DISAGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH RESPECT TO LOW POSITION AND
STRENGTH...THEREFORE WILL NOT ALTER FORECAST AND CONTINUE WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL NEXT WEEK AS STORM SYSTEMS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
MORNING LOWS WILL BE MODERATE UNDER CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.
BENINATO
AVIATION
WIDESPREAD IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY IN THE SIERRA
AND NWRN NV THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW.
SCATTERED IFR AND LIFR EXPECTED IN THE KRNO AREA AS SNOW SHOWERS
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. ALL CONDITIONS WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT AND
IMPROVE LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS STORM EXITS. OCCASIONAL SURFACE
WIND GUSTS 30-40 MPH CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER
TWEB ROUTE 402 KRNO-KBIH. BENINATO
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST FRIDAY EVENING FOR NVZ002.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST FRIDAY EVENING FOR NVZ003.
CA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST FRIDAY EVENING FOR CAZ071.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST FRIDAY EVENING FOR
CAZ072-CAZ073.
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