832
FXUS62 KKEY 130245
AFDKEY
FLORIDA KEYS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1045 PM EDT MON JUN 12 2006
DISCUSSION
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...TOWARD THE NATURE COAST OF FLORIDA.
THE FLORIDA KEYS LIE IN STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO AND A SPRAWLING SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC
ANTICYCLONE.
THE KEY WEST EVENING SOUNDING REVEALED A MOIST AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION DUE TO
A LOW-ALTITUDE STABLE LAYER BETWEEN 700-1400FT AGL. CONSIDERABLE DRY
AIR WAS PRESENT IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE ABOVE 1000FT AGL AS WELL.
LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC WINDS WERE FAIRLY STRONG...AVERAGING 26KT IN THE
1000-850MB LAYER. HOWEVER...WINDS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE
850MB. RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING HAVE SHOWN A
PERSISTENT SWATH OF RAIN...HEAVY SHOWERS...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
EXTENDING IN A CONFLUENT ZONE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE RIGHT
FLANK OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO...ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. MOST
OF THE KEYS AND ADJOINING WATERS EAST OF THE MARQUESAS KEYS HAVE
REMAINED RAIN-FREE ALL EVENING.
FORECASTS WILL BE UPDATED TO DECREASE PROBABILITIES OF RAIN
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE PRIMARY JUSTIFICATIONS OF A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
CAP AND THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS. IN
ADDITION...AFTERNOON SEA-BREEZE CONVECTION WAS NOT AS ACTIVE AS
EXPECTED OVER CUBA AND THEREFORE THERE ARE NOT AS MANY OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES MOVING NORTH. FINALLY...NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT
THE LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENT ZONE JUST EAST OF THE KEYS WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. PERSISTENCE ALSO SUPPORTS
THIS SCENARIO.
MARINE
MAINLY SOUTH BREEZES HAVE DECREASED DURING THE EVENING HOURS BY
ABOUT 4-7KT...BUT WERE STILL BLOWING IN THE 15-20KT RANGE OVER
WATERS WEST OF KEY WEST AND 20-60NM WEST OF MAINLAND MONROE. WINDS
WERE GENERALLY NEAR 15KT ELSEWHERE. WE WILL LEAVE CURRENT ADVISORIES
AND HEADLINES AS IS BECAUSE ANALYSES SUGGEST THAT THE CURRENTLY
OBSERVED LULL IS TEMPORARY. ALSO...WE HAVE RECEIVED NO SHIP REPORTS
OR SCATTEROMETER OBSERVATIONS DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS TO
PROVIDE GREATER CERTAINTY TO THE LARGER-SCALE OBSERVED WIND FIELD
ACROSS THE SERVICE AREA.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE KMIA-KEYW FLIGHT ROUTE...AS
WELL AS AT THE KEYW AND KMTH TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE ROUTE AND ISLAND LOCATIONS. THE STRONGER ACTIVITY WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS...PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR
VISIBILITY...AND CLOUD TO SURFACE LIGHTNING STRIKES. SURFACE WINDS
AT THE KEYS ISLAND TERMINALS WILL AVERAGE 160/10-15KTS...RESULTING
IN A 10-12KT CROSSWIND.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR MARINE
ZONES GMZ032-033-053-054-073-074-075.
K. KASPER
L. KASPER
H. MCCALL
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