895  
FNAK71 PAFC 240005  
FWSAER  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR HILCORP GAS LINE LEAK ICE FORECAST...ALASKA DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONSERVATION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK  
405 PM AKDT THU MAR 23 2017  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON INCIDENT TIME OF 1500 AKDT ON MARCH 23.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
BASED ON THE MOST RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AVAILABLE...THE LOCATION  
PROVIDED IN THE SPOT REQUEST IS LOCATED RIGHT BETWEEN AN AREA  
AVERAGING 8 TO 10 TENTHS SEA ICE COVERAGE WITH SEA ICE GREATER  
THAN 1 FOOT THICK...AND AN AREA OF 4 TO 6 TENTHS VERY THIN GREASE  
ICE THAT STRETCHES FROM THE EAST COAST NEAR NIKISKI OUT TO THE  
LOCATION. THIS ICE MAY MELT OUT DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS AND THEN  
REFREEZE WITH A PAPER THIN LAYER OF ICE DURING THE OVERNIGHT  
HOURS.  
 
PLEASE NOTE THAT THE TIDES VARY AND CAN CAUSE A DRAMATIC AND  
SOMEWHAT UNPREDICTABLE CHANGE TO ICE CONDITIONS...EVEN ON THE  
HOURLY TIME SCALE. WHILE THE FORECAST BELOW IS FAVORABLE FOR THE  
THICKEST SEA ICE TO REMAIN A SMALL DISTANCE TO THE WEST OF THE  
SPOT FORECAST LOCATION...THE ICE CONDITIONS THIS TIME OF YEAR IN  
COOK INLET CAN BE UNPREDICTABLE AND CAN RAPIDLY CHANGE.  
 
LOOKING OUT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WINDS THIS EVENING WILL START  
OUT OF THE N/NW...BECOMING N/NE OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. WINDS  
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OUT OF THE N TO NE THROUGH SUNDAY FOR THE  
SPOT FORECAST LOCATION. THESE WINDS ARE FAVORABLE TO KEEP THE  
THICKER AND HIGHER CONCENTRATION SEA ICE TO THE WEST. IN  
ADDITION...DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S COUPLED WITH  
MAINLY CLOUD FREE SKIES SHOULD AID IN MELTING VERY THIN ICE THAT  
WILL CONTINUE TO FORM EACH NIGHT AS LOWS DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS  
TO TEENS.  
 
   
TONIGHT
 
 
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 8 ABOVE.  
MAX HUMIDITY........91 PERCENT.  
SURFACE WINDS.......NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH.  
 
TIME (AKDT) 6 PM 9 PM MIDNGT 3 AM  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0  
TEMP............25 20 16 14  
RH..............76 89 90 80  
SURFACE WIND....NW 3G5 NW 6G10 N 9G15 N 9G20  
   
FRIDAY
 
 
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 25.  
MIN HUMIDITY........67 PERCENT.  
SURFACE WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.  
 
TIME (AKDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0  
TEMP............12 8 19 23  
RH..............75 76 70 68  
SURFACE WIND....N 8G25 NE 9G20 NE 9G25 NE 6G15  
 

 
FORECASTER...HEIM/NIEBUHR  
REQUESTED BY...MIKE EVANS  
TYPE OF REQUEST...OTHER  
.TAG 1705088.0/AER  
.EMAIL MIKE.EVANS@ALASKA.GOV  
 
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