740  
FXAK67 PAJK 261327  
AFDAJK  
 
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK  
527 AM AKDT FRI MAY 26 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE EASTERN  
GULF THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEATHER FRONT MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE  
CENTRAL GULF SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
/FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/ WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL  
IMPROVE EARLY TODAY LEADING INTO A FAVORABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS  
LATER TODAY AND TOMORROW. CURRENTLY A FEW SHOWERS ARE AFFECTING  
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE FROM YAKUTAT TO JUNEAU, HOWEVER,  
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING. ANOTHER CONCERN  
EARLY THIS MORNING IS FOG WHICH IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST THE  
PANHANDLE DUE TO THE HIGH AMOUNTS OF SURFACE MOISTURE PRESENT FROM  
THE RECENT RAINS. AS TIME PROGRESSES THIS MORNING CONDITIONS  
IMPROVE WITH THE AFTERNOON BRINGING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO THE  
PANHANDLE AS A WHOLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SUNNIEST AREAS EXPECTED  
ALONG THE INNER SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.  
 
A PLEASANT DAY IS IN THE FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA SATURDAY.  
NOT MUCH SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEYOND A CHANCE OF FOG  
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. TEMPERATURES MAKE A RETURN TO THE  
MID TO UPPER 60S. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS YAKUTAT WHICH COULD SEE  
SOME RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF LATE  
TOMORROW NIGHT.  
 
MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE SHORT TERM WERE MADE OVER THE  
CENTRAL GULF TOMORROW INCREASING WINDS AND POPS ASSOCIATED WITH  
THE FRONT. USED THE NAM AND GFS FOR PRIMARY FORECAST GUIDANCE.  
   
LONG TERM
 
/SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/ AS OF 10 PM  
THURSDAY. GENERALLY ONLY A FEW SMALL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST IN  
THE MID TO LATER TIME FRAMES. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE OVER  
THE WEEKEND WAS THE THE IDEA THAT THE RIDGE AXIS HAS BEEN MOVED  
ABOUT 150 MILES EASTWARD TO LIE MORE OVER THE PANHANDLE THAN  
RATHER OFF SHORE. THE RESULT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY FOR THE  
COASTAL WATERS IS THAT NORTHWEST WINDS ALONG THE OUTER COAST IS  
NOW A SOUTHERLY OR BECOMING A LIGHTER WEST FOR THE MARINE AREA  
WEST OF PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND.  
 
FORECAST SOLUTION FROM WPC, WHICH IS WHAT WAS BEING USED FOR  
MINOR CHANGES INTO MIDWEEK WAS FOR THE RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE TO  
PERSIST ALONG THE PANHANDLE/COASTAL MOUNTAIN RANGE WHILE A BROAD  
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF  
OF ALASKA. THE FLOW ABOUT THIS WILL BE TRYING TO SPREAD SOME  
MOISTURE AND RAIN INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF ALASKA  
THOUGH IT MAY TAKE UNTIL WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION DOES  
SO WITH A FRONTAL BAND ABOUT THE WESTERN GULF LOW.  
 
THE WEEKEND RIDGE/AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS NOT AS SUBSTANTIAL AS  
SOME OF THE THOUGHTS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, AND IT IS BEING  
MOVED NORTHWARD OR BEING WEAKENED. AS A RESULT THE THREAT OF A  
WIDESPREAD MARINE DECK WITH THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BANK ARE  
LESSENED AT LEAST FOR THE MAIN GULF WATERS. HOWEVER THE HIGH  
PRESSURE WILL TAKE THE MARINE DECK THAT IS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC  
WATERS THAT IS BEING MANEUVERED TO THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST  
LATE SATURDAY AND START MOVING THAT NORTH TO BE APPROACHING THE  
DIXON ENTRANCE AREA LATER SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY. THIS MAY END  
UP BEING PUSHED NORTHWARD EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AND COULD LOWER  
THE TEMPERATURES THERE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.  
 
FOR NOW LEFT THE HIGHS IN 60S TO NEAR 70 FOR PANHANDLE WHICH ARE  
BEING SUPPORTED BY A WARM LAYER OF AIR THAT IS BEING ADVECTED  
NORTH. EXPECT TO SEE THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO RISE 5 TO 10  
DEGREES C BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SUNDAY WITH 850 TEMPERATURES FROM 4  
TO 10 C BY SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
PUBLIC...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022.  
 

 
 

 
 
BYRD/BEZENEK  
 
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU  
 
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