400  
FXAK69 PAFG 221416  
AFDAFG  
 
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK  
616 AM AKDT SAT JUL 22 2017  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
THE 988 MB LOW ABOUT 400 MILES NORTH OF WAINWRIGHT WILL CONTINUE  
EAST OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA. THE WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS  
LOW LIES FROM THE LOW SOUTHEAST TO PRUDHOE BAY AND FROM THERE IS  
DIFFUSE SOUTHWESTWARD. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD OVER THE  
ALASKAN ARCTIC COAST, PASSING DEMARCATION POINT AROUND NOON TODAY.  
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT ANOTHER  
WEATHER FRONT IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST, THE FRONT ASSOCIATED  
WITH THE 996 MB LOW OVER MAINLAND RUSSIA NORTH OF KAMCHATKA. THAT  
LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST TO BE 990 MB BETWEEN WRANGEL  
ISLAND AND THE RUSSIAN MAINLAND AT 4 AM SUNDAY. ITS WEATHER FRONT  
IS MOVING RAPIDLY OVER THE BERING SEA, AND WILL LIE FROM THE GULF  
OF ANADYR SOUTHWARD LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE  
NORTHEAST TO LIE FROM POINT HOPE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE BERING  
STRAIT AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, AND ON OVER MAINLAND ALASKA SUNDAY  
THROUGH MONDAY.  
 
THE LOW NEAR WRANGEL ISLAND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WILL TRACK  
EASTWARD, PASSING JUST NORTH OF OUR EASTERN ARCTIC COAST MONDAY  
NIGHT. EARLIER MODEL RUNS INDICATED FAIRLY STRONG ONSHORE WINDS  
IN ZONE 201 AND IN ZONE 202 FROM POINT BARROW WEST ALONG WITH  
A MODEST STORM SURGE. MORE RECENT RUNS ARE MOSTLY LESS VIGOROUS,  
BUT THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL.  
 
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
NO CONCERNS.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
UP TO ANOTHER HALF INCH IN THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE (ZONE 206)  
FROM THE WEATHER FRONT PRESENTLY MOVING INTO THE AREA, AND MAYBE  
AS MUCH AGAIN ON MONDAY FROM THE NEXT ONE. THAT ON TOP OF THE  
HALF INCH TO AN INCH THAT'S ALREADY FALLEN. EXPECT SUBSTANTIAL  
RISES ON AREA RIVERS. MAYBE AN INCH IN ZONE 217 SUNDAY THROUGH  
MONDAY AS WELL. MOST AREAS OF NORTHERN ALASKA CAN EXPECT  
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SUNDAY AND/OR MONDAY, EXCEPT ZONE 220.  
 

 
   
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
HIGH WIND WATCH FOR AKZ205.  
 
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ202.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-  
PKZ240-PKZ245.  

 
 

 
 
DJH JUL 17  
 
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