053
FXAK69 PAFG 091427
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
527 AM AKST MON NOV 9 2009
DISCUSSION
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
ALTHOUGH THE GFS STILL SHOWS A MUCH DEEPER LOW MOVING OVER THE
SEWARD PENINSULA TODAY. THIS IS ALSO THE CASE WITH THE NEXT STORM
ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE GFS IS MUCH STRONGER AS WELL AS
SLOWER THAN THE ECMF AND NAM MODELS.
WEST COAST...A 991 MB LOW IN THE NORTHERN BERING SEA WILL ARRIVE
THIS AFTERNOON AS A 989 MB LOW OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA. THE
STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING SNOW FALL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF ALASKA AS WELL AS STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW THAT
COULD BRING LOCALLY BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES. WINTER STORM
WARNINGS ARE OUT FOR ZONES 211-212 AND 214 FOR TODAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE ALSO OUT FOR ZONES 213-215 AND 216.
HIGH SURF ADVISORIES ARE OUT FOR ZONES 212 AND 214 AS STRONG WINDS
BATTER THE COAST THERE. THIS STORM WILL EXIT THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
BUT A SECOND STORM WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY BEHIND ON NEARLY THE SAME
PATH. THIS STORM WILL ALSO HAVE HEAVY SNOW...STRONG WINDS...AND
BLOWING SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND APPEARS TO BE MUCH STRONGER.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING FROM THE
BERING STRAIT TO THE YUKON DELTA ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...THIS SITUATION WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED AND RESIDENTS
OF COMMUNITIES ALONG THE WEST COAST ARE URGED TO BE PREPARED
SHOULD THIS STORM DEVELOP AS THE MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE.
ARCTIC COAST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THE ARCTIC
COAST WITH A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH RUNNING EAST TO WEST JUST INLAND
ALONG THE SHORE. EXPECT FLURRIES AND PATCHY FOG THROUGH TUESDAY
AND EAST WINDS THAT BECOME QUITE STRONG TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
AS THE SECOND STORM PLOWS INTO THE SEWARD PENINSULA.
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...THE EASTERN INTERIOR IS EXPECTED TO
HAVE A CHANCE OF SNOW THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO A TROUGH IN
THE AREA. THE CENTRAL INTERIOR WILL HAVE FLURRIES TODAY WITH LIGHT
SNOW DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW FALL WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 2
INCH RANGE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW FALL
IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER FLOW TURNS
SOUTHWEST BRINGING IN MOISTURE TO THE AREA. A FLOOD ADVISORY
CONTINUES IN THE SALCHA AREA UNTIL NOON DUE TO AN ICE JAM ON THE
TANANA RIVER. WATER LEVELS IN FLOODED AREAS ARE DROPPING BUT COULD
CHANGE QUICKLY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED TODAY.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
HYDRO...AN ICE JAM ON THE TANANA RIVER AT SALCHA IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO CAUSE MINOR FLOODING THROUGH NOON TODAY. A FLOOD
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SALCHA INCLUDING THE PILEDRIVER
SLOUGH AREA.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ212-AKZ214.
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ214.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ213-AKZ215-AKZ216.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-
PKZ230-PKZ235.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ220-PKZ230-PKZ235.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ215-PKZ245.
RL NOV 09
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