715  
FXAK69 PAFG 272106  
AFDAFG  
 
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK  
106 PM AKDT MON MAR 27 2017  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
THE 12Z MODELS SUITE INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 12Z SURFACE  
ANALYSIS AND VERIFIED WELL AGAINST THE 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. MODEL  
SPREAD IN BOTH THE SHORT RANGE AND THE MID RANGE REMAINS VERY  
REASONABLE. MODEL SPREAD INCREASES RAPIDLY IN THE LONG RANGE.  
 
ALOFT AT 500 HPA, A LONG WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER  
CENTRAL ALASKA WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE WEST TO BE CENTERED OVER  
WESTERN ALASKA WEDNESDAY. A RIDGE BUILDS OVER WESTERN CANADA TODAY  
AND TUESDAY AND WILL PUSH FURTHER WEST OVER THE YUKON BY  
WEDNESDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS AT 500 HPA OVER A LARGE  
PORTION OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALASKA WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW AT 700  
HPA INCREASING IN STRENGTH OVER THE SAME AREAS. STRONG EASTERLY  
WINDS CONTINUE BELOW 850 HPA DOWN TO THE SURFACE OVER THE SAME  
AREAS AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. WINTER WEATHER  
ADVISORIES FOR BLOWING SNOW OVER HIGHWAY SUMMITS CONTINUE FOR  
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR NORTH OF FAIRBANKS FOR  
TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO  
INCREASE. WIND GUSTS IN THE 20S AND 30S ARE NOTED OVER HIGHWAY  
SUMMITS OVER THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40  
MPH EXPECTED TONIGHT BEFORE THE GRADIENT RELAXES TUESDAY  
AFTERNOON.  
 
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH AND NORTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN  
AND CENTRAL INTERIOR AND WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE  
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA  
MOVES OVER THE AREA. LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED OVER A  
LARGE AREA OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR BEGINNING TONIGHT  
AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE INCH IS  
EXPECTED. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW EXPECTED  
OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS  
POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM.  
 
LOW CEILINGS, FOG AND FLURRIES ARE NOTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE  
NORTH SLOPE WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT  
AND TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ218-AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ223.  
 
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ245.  

 
 

 
 
CCC MAR 17  
 
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