920  
FXAK69 PAFG 261338  
AFDAFG  
 
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK  
538 AM AKDT FRI MAY 26 2017  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
THE ACTIVE PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN SEEN OVER NORTHERN ALASKA THE  
PAST FEW DAYS IS CURRENTLY ON A DOWNWARD TREND. THE MODELS ARE IN  
GOOD AGREEMENT OUT THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
ALOFT, AT 500 HPA, A 524 DAM LOW CURRENTLY SITS JUST NORTH OF THE  
BERING STRAIT WITH A 529 DAM LOW JUST SOUTH OF BARROW. THE LOW  
CURRENTLY SOUTH OF BARROW WILL MOVE TO JUST NORTH OF WRANGEL  
ISLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING AND WILL THEN CONTINUE MOVING TO THE  
NORTH AND WEST. THE LOW CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE BERING STRAIT WILL DIVE  
SOUTH TO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, AND TO  
BRISTOL BAY BY EARLY SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN  
PUSHING NORTHWARD ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER SUNDAY. THE MODELS  
PAINT THE PICTURE THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD WEST ACROSS  
THE STATE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ORIENTED EAST TO  
WEST JUST NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE; HOWEVER, THERE ARE SOME  
DIFFERENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THIS AT THIS TIME.  
 
AT THE SURFACE, A 999MB LOW CURRENTLY 100 NM N OF BARROW WILL  
MOVE TO 375 NM NW OF WAINWRIGHT BY SATURDAY MORNING AND WILL  
CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST. A 1002 MB LOW 100 NM W OF POINT  
HOPE WILL WEAKEN IN PLACE TODAY. A 1004 MB LOW JUST SOUTH OF ST.  
LAWRENCE ISLAND WILL MOVE TO JUST SOUTH OF TIN CITY BY THIS  
EVENING AND WILL THEN WEAKEN IN PLACE. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL  
DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF THE ALAKSA RANGE ON SUNDAY.  
 
NORTH SLOPE: SNOW IN THE BARROW AREA WILL TAPER OFF THIS MORNING  
AS A LOW NORTH OF BARROW RAPIDLY MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST. SKIES TO  
THE EAST OF BARROW ARE RELATIVELY CLEAR. WITH THE LOW MOVING  
NORTHWARD, EXPECT DECREASING CLOUD COVER FROM BARROW WEST TODAY.  
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST THROUGH SATURDAY  
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW VISIBILITY DUE  
TO FOG. WINDS WILL TURN WESTERLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE  
NORTH SLOPE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ON SUNDAY ALONG  
THE BEAUFORT SEA COAST AS A SFC TROUGH DEVELOPS NORTH OF THE  
BROOKS RANGE, THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN GUSTY WIND NEAR  
KAKTOVIK, WHERE GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.  
 
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR: A LOOK AT WEBCAMS IN DENALI NATIONAL  
PARK THIS MORNING SHOWS THAT SNOW HAS REDEVELOPED. SINCE THE SNOW  
IS STILL ONGOING, I MADE THE DECISION TO PUSH THE END TIME OF THE  
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY BACK BY 4 HOURS. SOME PATCHY FOG HAS  
DEVELOPED ALONG THE TANANA RIVER NEAR FAIRBANKS EARLY THIS MORNING;  
HOWEVER, ANY FOG THAT IS OUT THERE WILL DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING.  
ELSEWHERE, SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AROUND THE  
INTERIOR. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING AN AREA OF NEGATIVE LIFTED  
INDICES COMBINED WITH ENOUGH CAPE TO RESULT IN A FEW ISOLATED  
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER KOYUKUK VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON,  
ESPECIALLY NEAR BETTLES. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BECOME MORE ISOLATED  
ON SATURDAY. WITH A THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPING ON SUNDAY NORTH OF  
THE ALASKA RANGE EXPECT GUSTY GAP WINDS TO DEVELOP SUNDAY  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED SATURDAY  
THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. BY WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK HIGH  
TEMPERATURES IN THE FAIRBANKS AREA WILL BE IN THE LOW 70S.  
 
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR: SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS  
TODAY. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE MOSTLY SNOW IN THE MORNING;  
HOWEVER EXPECT IT TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN IN MOST LOCATIONS BY THE  
AFTERNOON AS THE SNOW LEVEL RISES. TOMORROW NUMEROUS TO SCATTERED  
SHOWERS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME  
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST. THINGS LOOK TO DRY OUT  
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS WEST, PARTICULARLY FOR  
THE WESTERN INTERIOR.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
A GENERAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON  
SATURDAY FOR THE INTERIOR. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY IN  
THE UPPER KOYUKUK VALLEY. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF  
THE ALASKA RANGE SUNDAY. AS THE THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS, SOUTHERLY  
GAP WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH ALASKA RANGE PASSES SUNDAY  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
AS TEMPERATURES WARM THIS WEEKEND THE RECENT HEAVY SNOWFALL IN THE  
ALASKA RANGE WILL BEGIN TO MELT. THIS WILL CAUSE INCREASED FLOW IN  
RIVERS AND STREAMS THAT DRAIN THE ALASKA RANGE LATE THIS WEEKEND  
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BREAKUP CONTINUES FOR THE RIVERS NORTH OF  
THE BROOKS RANGE WITH NO KNOWN ISSUES AT THIS TIME.  
 

 
   
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ225.  

 
 

 
 
MAY 17  
 
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