543
FZAK80 PAFC 070218
ICEAFC
SEA ICE ADVISORY FOR WESTERN AND ARCTIC ALASKAN COASTAL WATERS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
520 PM AKST FRIDAY NOVEMBER 6 2009
FORECAST VALID...WEDNESDAY NOVEMBER 11 2009
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...MODERATE.
SYNOPSIS...STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE ON
SHORE MONDAY. A STRONG LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN BERING SEA
AND OVER MAINLAND ALASKA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
-ARCTIC OCEAN-
-BEAUFORT SEA-
PKZ510-EASTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
PKZ505-CENTRAL US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
ICE COVERED.
-CHUKCHI SEA-
PKZ500-WESTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
PKZ245-FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
PKZ240-CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
PKZ235-POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
PKZ230-CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
PKZ225-CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
PKZ220-WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
PKZ215-KOTZEBUE SOUND-
THE MAIN ICE EDGE LIES FROM KOTZEBUE SOUND TO POINT HOPE TO 69.7N
165.7W TO 70.2N 167.3W TO 70.4N 169.8W TO 70N 171.4W TO 69.7N 176.5W
69.1N 177.7W TO 68.2N 174.8W TO 67.1N 171.1W TO 66.2N 170W ALONG THE
RUSSIAN COAST. THE ICE EDGE IS MAINLY 1 TO 3 TENTHS NEW ICE.
4 TO 10 TENTHS NEW ICE LIES KOTZEBUE SOUND.
FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FREEZE UP WILL CONTINUE WITH ICE
INCREASING QUICKLY ALONG THE COASTS.
-BERING SEA-
PKZ210-DALL POINT TO WALES-
PKZ200-NORTON SOUND-
PKZ180-SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT-
PKZ160-BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN-
4 TO 10 TENTHS NEW ICE LIES IN NORTON SOUND AND PORT CLARENCE. NORTON
BAY IS ICE COVERED.
4 TO 9 TENTHS NEW ICE LIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF NORTON SOUND
AND EXTENDS DOWN THE WEST COAST TO KUSKOKWIM BAY.
4 TO 7 TENTHS NEW ICE LIES ALONG THE COAST OF KUSKOKWIM BAY AND
EXTENDS UP THE ALASKA WEST COAST TO TOKSOOK BAY.
1 TO 8 TENTHS NEW ICE LIES IN NORTHERN NUSHAGAK BAY.
1 TO 7 TENTHS NEW ICE LIES IN UPPER KVICHAK BAY.
FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ICE WILL INCREASE ALONG THE COASTS FROM
BRISTOL BAY NORTH AND AROUND SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND.
PKZ140-COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY-
ICE IS FORMING AT NIGHT ALONG THE SHORES OF UPPER COOK INLET AND
MELTING DURING THE WARMER HOURS.
FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ICE WILL PERSIST IN UPPER KNIK AND UPPER
TURNAGAIN ARMS BY TUESDAY. ICE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST NEAR THE
PORT OF ANCHORAGE BY WEDNESDAY.
KCOLE 2009
..NOVEMBER 2009 YEAR GROUP ANALYSIS AND WINTER OUTLOOK UPDATE
THE YEAR GROUP FOR NOVEMBER 2009 IS 1990. THE ICE IS ALSO SIMILAR
2008. THE OUTLOOK BELOW WAS UPDATED USING A COMBINATION OF DATA FROM
1990 AND 2008 AND REFERENCING THE 2008-2009 ICE YEAR.
EVENT 2009-2010 OUTLOOK
NORTON SOUND ICE COVERED 13 NOVEMBER
MAIN ICE PACK TO BERING STRAIT 27 NOVEMBER
ICE EDGE TO SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND 29 NOVEMBER
ICE EDGE TO SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND 1 JANUARY
ICE EDGE TO SAINT PAUL ISLAND 18 JANUARY
ICE EDGE TO SAINT GEORGE ISLAND 25 JANUARY
BERING SEA SOUTHERN ICE EXTENT AT 170W 56.5N ON 3 MARCH
COOK INLET FIRST ICE AT PORT OF ANCHORAGE 11 NOVEMBER
COOK INLET FIRST ICE AT NIKISKI 16 NOVEMBER
UPPER COOK INLET EAST OF 151W 15 DECEMBER
ICE GREATER THAN 6/10
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND 24 DECEMBER
ICE GREATER THAN 6/10
KCOLE 2009
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