124
FZAK80 PAFC 082136 AAA
ICEAFC
SEA ICE ADVISORY FOR WESTERN AND ARCTIC ALASKAN COASTAL WATERS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
145 PM AKDT TUESDAY JULY 8 2008
FORECAST VALID...SATURDAY JULY 12 2008
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
UPDATED TO ADD JULY YEAR GROUP ANALYSIS AND OUTLOOK.
SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE ARCTIC OCEAN ACROSS THE
BERING STRAIT WILL WEAKEN AS A HIGH BUILDS NORTH OF ALASKA BY FRIDAY.
-ARCTIC OCEAN-
-BEAUFORT SEA-
-CHUKCHI SEA-
PKZ215-KOTZEBUE SOUND-
PKZ220-WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
PKZ225-CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
PKZ230-CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
PKZ235-POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
PKZ240-CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
PKZ245-FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
THE MAIN ICE EDGE LIES FROM NEAR POINT LAY TO 70.6N 166.7W TO 69.5N
168.2W TO 68.3N 172.2W TO 66.9N 171.7W ALONG THE NORTHERN CHUKCHI
PENINSULA COAST. THE EDGE IS MAINLY 1 TO 5 TENTHS NEW...YOUNG AND
FIRST YEAR THIN ICE.
3 TO 5 TENTHS NEW...YOUNG AND FIRST YEAR THIN ICE LIES AT THE
ENTRANCE TO KOTZEBUE SOUND. 4 TO 6 TENTHS YOUNG...NEW AND FIRST YEAR
THIN ICE LIES WITHIN 15 NM OF THE COAST FROM 15 NM SOUTHEAST OF
KIVALINA TO POINT HOPE.
FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY...EAST OF POINT BARROW EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL OPEN THE COAST FROM DEMARCATION POINT TO NEAR PRUDHOE BAY
BY SATURDAY.
ALONG THE ALASKA NORTHWEST COAST PERIODS OF WEAKER EASTERLY WINDS
WILL OPEN THE COAST TO POINT LAY THIS WEEK. ICE CONCENTRATIONS ALONG
THE SHORE FROM WAINWRIGHT TO BARROW WILL DIMINISH.
ICE AT THE ENTRANCE TO KOTZEBUE SOUND WILL MELT BY SATURDAY. ICE WILL
REMAIN ALONG THE KIVALINA COAST BUT DIMINISH IN CONCENTRATION AND
THICKNESS.
..JULY YEAR GROUP ANALYSIS AND OUTLOOK
THE YEAR GROUP FOR 2008 IS 1998 FOLLOWED BY 2006. ICE RECORDS FOR
1998 INDICATE MUCH LESS ICE IN THE BEAUFORT SEA BY THIS TIME AND
RECORDS FOR 2006 HAVE SOMEWHAT MORE ICE ALONG THE ALASKA NORTH COAST
THAN THIS YEAR. 1998 IS A BETTER MATCH FOR THE CHUKCHI AREA AND AS
ICE IS DECREASING QUICKLY IN THE BEAUFORT THIS SEASON 1998 WAS CHOSEN
FOR THE YEAR GROUP. FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO HAVE LONG MEMORIES OR
RECORDS THAT GO BACK THAT FAR 1973 ICE RECORDS ARE AN EXCELLENT
MATCH. THE DEVELOPMENT OF NEW ICE ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES AND LACK OF
DATA FROM THAT ERA MAKE COMPARISONS DIFFICULT.
..SUMMER OUTLOOK JULY 2008
EVENT 2008 OUTLOOK
KIVALINA COAST ICE FREE JULY 14
POINT HOPE TO BARROW NEAR COAST JULY 19
LESS THAN 3 TENTHS ICE
POINT HOPE TO BARROW OPEN AUGUST 1
PRUDHOE BAY FROM CANADA ICE FREE JULY 12
NORTH COAST POINT BARROW TO CANADA JULY 20
LESS THAN 3 TENTHS ICE NEAR COAST
ALASKA COAST TO CANADA OPEN NEAR COAST AUGUST 1
THE LAST ICE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE ALASKA COAST WILL BE IN THE POINT
BARROW AREA. THIS ICE SHOULD MOVE A SIGNIFICANT DISTANCE FROM THE
COAST IN MID AUGUST.
KCOLE JULY 2008
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