175
FGUS74 KBMX 051408
ESFBMX
ALC001-005>011-015>021-027-029-037-047-051-055-057-
063-065-073-075-081-085>093-101-105>127-111200-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
910 AM CDT THU JUNE 5 2008
..DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA
SYNOPSIS...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THE PAST WEEK WERE QUITE VARIABLE ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA...WITH THE HEAVIER TOTALS GENERALLY FROM AROUND THE
BIRMINGHAM AREA SOUTH TO AROUND CLANTON. DESPITE THE VARIED NATURE
OF OUR RECENT RAINFALL...DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA CONTINUE
TO EASE VERY GRADUALLY. THE LATEST U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR NOW
INDICATES THAT NO PART OF CENTRAL ALABAMA IS IN EXTREME
DROUGHT...ALTHOUGH SEVERE DROUGHT STILL PLAGUES MUCH OF THE AREA.
THE LATEST U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR NOW INDICATES MODERATE TO SEVERE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM NEAR ARLEY TO
CENTREVILLE TO MARION JUNCTION TO HAYNEVILLE TO UNION SPRINGS TO
OPELIKA TO ROANOKE. REMAINING AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST ARE
EXPERIENCING NEAR NORMAL TO ABNORMALLY CONDITIONS. THE DROUGHT
MONITOR CLASSIFIES DROUGHT WITHIN ONE OF THESE FIVE CATEGORIES:
1) ABNORMALLY DRY
2) MODERATE
3) SEVERE
4) EXTREME
5) EXCEPTIONAL
RAINFALL AVERAGED ONE TO TWO INCHES FROM AROUND BIRMINGHAM TO
CLANTON DURING THE PAST WEEK. HOWEVER...MOST OTHER AREAS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA RECEIVED LESS THAN ONE INCH OF RAINFALL...WITH SOME AREAS
RECEIVING NONE AT ALL. SO FAR IN JUNE...RAINFALL HAS AVERAGED FROM
NONE AT ALL TO NEAR TWO INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. FOR THE
YEAR... RAINFALL HAS GENERALLY RANGED FROM NINETEEN TO TWENTY NINE
INCHES...WITH THE LOWEST AMOUNTS IN SOUTHEAST SECTIONS FROM AROUND
MONTGOMERY TO TROY. FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE...AVERAGE RAINFALL IN
CENTRAL ALABAMA IS FROM THREE AND ONE QUARTER TO FOUR AND ONE
QUARTER INCHES.
SOME PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA JANUARY 1ST THROUGH
JUNE 4TH:
BIRMINGHAM 28.79
MONTGOMERY 18.72
ANNISTON 22.79
TUSCALOOSA 23.08
CALERA 28.52
TROY 20.11
AVERAGE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AND DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL FROM
JANUARY 1ST THROUGH JUNE 4TH:
BIRMINGHAM 25.78 UP 3.01
MONTGOMERY 25.92 DOWN 7.20
ANNISTON 25.97 DOWN 3.18
TUSCALOOSA 27.33 DOWN 4.25
AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...
TOP SOIL MOISTURE PROFILES REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
MOST AREAS...BUT HAVE DECLINED SOME DURING THE PAST WEEK. ALTHOUGH
SUBSOIL MOISTURES HAVE SHOWN SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT THE PAST FEW
WEEKS THEY STILL HAVE NOT RECOVERED FROM THE EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT OF
LAST FALL AND SUMMER.
THE USDA REPORTS THAT THE WINTER WHEAT HARVEST IS NOW UNDERWAY WITH
86 PERCENT OF THE CROP REPORTED TO BE IN GOOD TO EXCELLENT CONDITION.
MOST OF THE CORN CROP IS ALSO IN GOOD TO EXCELLENT CONDITION...BUT
IS SHOWING SOME NEED FOR RAIN. PASTURE CONDITIONS HAVE DETERIORATED
SLIGHTLY DURING THE PAST WEEK. LIVESTOCK CONTINUE TO BE MOSTLY IN
GOOD TO EXCELLENT CONDITION.
FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...
GENERALLY SPEAKING...THE FIRE DANGER RISK ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA HAS
INCREASED DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS...WITH THE DRIEST
CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHEAST SECTIONS. KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDICES
(KBDI) ARE CURRENTLY BETWEEN 100 AND 400 ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA...BUT INCREASE TO 500 TO 600 FROM AROUND MONTGOMERY
SOUTHEASTWARD. VALUES ABOVE 500 INDICATE A SEVERE FIRE DANGER.
THE ALABAMA FORESTRY COMMISSION REPORTS THAT NO COUNTIES ARE
CURRENTLY UNDER A FIRE ALERT.
HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS...
STREAM FLOWS HAVE IMPROVED SOMEWHAT DURING THE PAST FEW WEEKS...BUT
STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. GENERALLY SPEAKING...MOST STREAM FLOWS NORTH OF
A LINE FROM DEMOPOLIS TO CLANTON TO PIEDMONT ARE CURRENTLY NEAR OR
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH BELOW NORMAL FLOWS TO THE SOUTH OF THIS LINE.
FREQUENT RAINS ARE NEEDED TO HELP STREAM FLOWS RETURN TO OR REMAIN
IN THE NORMAL RANGE AS WE HEAD INTO THE SUMMER SEASON.
RESERVOIR LEVELS ARE REMAINING FAIRLY STEADY. MOST MAJOR RESERVOIRS
HAVE NOW RETURNED TO NEAR NORMAL SUMMER POOL LEVELS. PERIODIC
SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL WILL NEED TO OCCUR IN ORDER FOR THE MAJOR
RESERVOIRS TO SUSTAIN THEIR CURRENT LEVELS THROUGH SUMMER.
LISTED BELOW ARE TODAY'S LEVELS FOR SOME OF THE MAJOR RESERVOIRS
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AND LAST WEEK'S LEVELS:
RESERVOIR LEVEL FOR 06/05/2008 LEVEL FOR 05/29/2008
WEISS 563.7 564.0
NEELY HENRY 507.5 507.9
LOGAN MARTIN 464.6 464.9
LAY 395.9 395.9
MITCHELL 311.5 311.4
JORDAN 251.2 251.2
R.L. HARRIS 792.8 793.0
MARTIN 489.5 489.5
SMITH 509.8 510.7
BANKHEAD 254.5 254.9
HOLT 186.9 186.9
SOCIAL IMPACTS...
SOME OF THE WATER RESTRICTIONS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA HAVE BEEN
LIFTED OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS. RAINFALL FROM LATE WINTER THROUGH
THE SPRING HAS ALLOWED MANY OF THE MAJOR CITY RESERVOIRS TO FILL TO
CAPACITY. HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF WATER SHORTAGES FOR MUNICIPAL
WATER SYSTEMS WILL INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO THE SUMMER
SEASON...ESPECIALLY IF BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL OCCURS OVER THE AREA.
THE AMOUNT OF BENEFICIAL RAINFALL THAT OCCURS AS WE HEAD INTO THE
SUMMER WILL BE CRITICAL IN DETERMINING IF ADEQUATE WATER SUPPLIES
ARE AVAILABLE FOR THE UPCOMING SUMMER IN AREA RESERVOIRS.
OUTLOOK...
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PREVAILS OVER THE AREA. BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO
RETURN TO THE AREA TO BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST...FOR JUNE 10TH THROUGH JUNE 18TH...CALLS
FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
THE LONG RANGE OUTLOOK...FOR THE REMAINDER OF JUNE THROUGH
AUGUST...CALLS FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR NORMAL TO
ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL.
..UPDATE STATEMENT
THE NEXT DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND JUNE
12TH...OR EARLIER IF SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE CURRENT DROUGHT
SITUATION OCCUR.
IMPORTANT PRODUCT NOTE...
ON JUNE 10TH 2008...THIS PRODUCT WILL MOVE TO A NEW PRODUCT
IDENTIFIER AND BE NAMED THE "DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT." THE NEW
PRODUCT IDENTIFIER IS BHMDGTBMX AND THE WMO HEADER IS AXUS74 KBMX.
AFTER JUNE 10TH...THE "HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK" PRODUCT WILL BE RESERVED
FOR FLOODING POTENTIAL.
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