029  
FNUS74 KMOB 241213  
FWSMOB  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR GARNER CREEK...FLORIDA FOREST SERVICE  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL  
713 AM CDT FRI MAR 24 2017  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0800 CDT ON MARCH 24.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS  
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION AND LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS  
OVER THE PLAINS STATES. DISPERSIONS WILL BE IN THE GOOD CATEGORY  
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL  
INCREASE IN COVERAGE SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM  
SYSTEM. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE SATURDAY  
WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS, HAIL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND  
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.  
   
REST OF TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.  
LAL.................NO TSTMS.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 78.  
MIN HUMIDITY........50 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH BECOMING SOUTHEAST AND  
INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 25  
MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1700-3500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3900-4400 FT AGL  
IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT (M)...518-1067 METERS AGL INCREASING TO 1189-1341  
METERS AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 16 TO 24 MPH.  
TRANSPORT WINDS M/S.SOUTHEAST 7 TO 11 METERS/SECOND.  
DISPERSION INDEX....INCREASING TO 64.  
LVORI...............3.  
STABILITY CLASS.....3.  
 
TIME (CDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........56 56 55 55 55 55 55 55 56 56  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TSTM COV........  
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10  
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1  
TEMP............63 64 68 71 74 76 78 78 76 74  
RH..............78 78 68 61 57 54 50 50 54 55  
20 FT WIND DIR..E SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE  
20 FT WIND SPD. 9 12 14 14 15 15 15 15 14 13  
20 FT WIND GUST.15 20 20 20 22 22 22 23 20 20  
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.7 2.3 3.0 3.5 3.9 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.2  
MIX HGT (KM)....0.5 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3  
TRANSP WIND DIR.SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE  
TRANSP WIND SPD.16 20 23 24 24 24 23 22 21 20  
TRANS WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE  
TRANS SPD (M/S).7 9 10 11 11 11 10 10 9 9  
DISPERSION IDX..36 47 56 59 62 64 62 61 60 60  
LVORI...........4 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.  
LAL.................NO TSTMS.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 60.  
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 7 TO 9 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......DECREASING TO 500-1600 FT AGL.  
MIXING HEIGHT (M)...DECREASING TO 152-488 METERS AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 10 TO 18 MPH DECREASING TO 8 TO 14  
MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  
TRANSPORT WINDS M/S.SOUTHEAST 4 TO 8 METERS/SECOND DECREASING TO 4  
TO 6 METERS/SECOND IN THE LATE EVENING AND  
OVERNIGHT.  
DISPERSION INDEX....DECREASING TO 14.  
LVORI...............4.  
STABILITY CLASS.....4.  
 
TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%).........57 57 57 56 55 55 54 54 56 61 66 71  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TSTM COV........  
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10  
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1  
TEMP............71 68 65 63 62 61 60 60 60 61 60 60  
RH..............61 68 75 81 84 87 90 90 93 90 96 100  
20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE  
20 FT WIND SPD..12 10 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8  
20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10  
MIX HGT (KFT)...4.2 1.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.9  
MIX HGT (KM)....1.3 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3  
TRANSP WIND DIR.SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE  
TRANSP WIND SPD.18 16 13 10 8 8 8 9 9 10 13 14  
TRANS WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE  
TRANS SPD (M/S).8 7 6 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 6 6  
DISPERSION IDX..58 18 13 11 10 10 10 11 12 13 14 15  
LVORI...........2 3 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5  
   
SATURDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING.  
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.  
LAL.................NO TSTMS UNTIL 0700, THEN 1-8 STRIKES UNTIL  
1300, THEN 9-15 STRIKES.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 78.  
MIN HUMIDITY........60 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 8 TO 13 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC  
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-2800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3000-3400 FT AGL  
IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT (M)...305-853 METERS AGL INCREASING TO 914-1036  
METERS AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 16 TO 24 MPH.  
TRANSPORT WINDS M/S.SOUTH 7 TO 11 METERS/SECOND.  
DISPERSION INDEX....INCREASING TO AROUND 57.  
LVORI...............3.  
STABILITY CLASS.....3.  
 
TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........76 79 78 78 79 79 79 79 80 81 82 83  
WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC  
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........ SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC  
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 20 20 20 20 20 20 50 50 50 50 50  
LAL.............1 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3  
TEMP............60 61 63 67 71 75 77 78 78 77 75 73  
RH..............100 100 97 84 76 66 62 60 60 62 69 73  
20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE SE S S S S S S  
20 FT WIND SPD..8 9 9 10 11 12 13 13 13 13 12 11  
20 FT WIND GUST.10 15 15 15 15 20 20 20 20 20 15 15  
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.0 1.2 1.7 2.1 2.5 2.8 3.1 3.4 3.3 3.1 3.0 3.0  
MIX HGT (KM)....0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9  
TRANSP WIND DIR.SE SE SE S S S S S S S S S  
TRANSP WIND SPD.16 18 20 22 23 23 24 24 24 24 23 21  
TRANS WIND DIR..SE SE SE S S S S S S S S S  
TRANS SPD (M/S).7 8 9 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 10 9  
DISPERSION IDX..16 25 31 38 46 50 54 57 56 54 51 47  
LVORI...........5 5 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 2 2  
 

 
FORECASTER...21  
REQUESTED BY...SHANNON BOWMAN  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1705121.0/MOB  
.EMAIL SHANNON.BOWMAN@FRESHFROMFLORIDA.COM  
 
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