862  
FXUS62 KTAE 210525  
AFDTAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL  
1225 AM EST WED FEB 21 2018  
   
AVIATION [THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY]
 
 
CONDITIONS BECOMING MOSTLY MVFR TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG EXPECTED.  
VIS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE 2 SM IN MOST LOCATIONS. LOW CIGS  
WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT IN THE MORNING. VFR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN IN  
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION [747 PM EST]
 
 
   
NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]
 
 
AS EXPECTED, LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS  
OF THE WIREGRASS AND EVEN INTO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AT THIS HOUR.  
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE NORTHWARD, YIELDING VERY LIGHT RAINFALL  
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THESE AREAS. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL  
REMAIN STAGNANT THROUGH THE PERIOD, AS THE REGION WILL REMAIN  
SITUATED ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE. THIS  
WILL KEEP MUGGY CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH THE EVENING AND  
OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY AREAS OF FOG -  
PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT SEE ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON.  
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S  
TONIGHT.  
 
   
SHORT TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]
 
 
DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH LITTLE  
TO NO CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN. THOUGH RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED,  
CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY AND AT LEAST PART OF  
THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL ABOVE  
AVERAGE, WITH RECORDS BEING THREATENED EACH DAY THIS WEEK.  
 
   
LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]
 
 
DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND  
POSSIBLY INTO SATURDAY. THEN, A PATTERN SHIFT WILL OCCUR AS A  
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MIDWEST. A COLD  
FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE TRI-STATE REGION BY THE END OF THE  
WEEKEND, BRINGING OUR BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IN QUITE SOME TIME.  
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK AS THE TAIL END OF THE  
FRONT STALLS OUT ACROSS THE GULF COAST. WHILE STILL EXPECTED TO BE  
ABOVE AVERAGE, HIGHS WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES CLOSER TO NORMAL ONCE  
THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN.  
 
   
MARINE
 
 
EASTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST BELOW CAUTIONARY  
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCE  
FOR RAIN.  
 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
RHS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND,  
PRECLUDING ANY HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER RISK THROUGH THIS PERIOD.  
 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
ALL AREA RIVERS ARE BELOW FLOOD STAGE WITH FALLING OR STEADY  
WATER LEVELS. MEASURABLE RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE THIS  
WEEKEND, AND EVEN THEN, CURRENT ESTIMATES THROUGH 7 DAYS ARE FOR A  
HALF INCH OR LESS.  
 
   
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
 
 
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS  
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY  
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
TALLAHASSEE 83 63 84 62 82 / 10 10 0 0 10  
PANAMA CITY 77 65 77 64 77 / 10 0 0 0 10  
DOTHAN 83 64 84 62 81 / 20 10 0 0 10  
ALBANY 82 64 83 62 81 / 10 10 0 0 10  
VALDOSTA 83 64 83 62 82 / 10 10 0 0 20  
CROSS CITY 86 64 83 64 82 / 10 0 10 10 10  
APALACHICOLA 76 65 75 64 76 / 10 10 10 0 10  
 

 
   
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ EARLY THIS  
MORNING FOR COASTAL BAY-SOUTH WALTON.  
 
GA...NONE.  
AL...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...DVD  
SHORT TERM...PULLIN  
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN  
AVIATION...HUMPHREYS  
MARINE...MCD  
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN  
HYDROLOGY...PULLIN  
 
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