059  
FXUS62 KTAE 221048  
AFDTAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL  
648 AM EDT THU JUN 22 2017  
   
AVIATION [THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY]
 
 
A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN IS GRADUALLY DRIFTING EAST ACROSS THE FL  
PANHANDLE AND SE ALABAMA THIS MORNING, AND COULD IMPACT ECP AND  
DHN WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY (MVFR/IFR) BEFORE  
WEAKENING AND/OR MOVING OUT OF OUR AREA LATER THIS MORNING.  
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD  
AT ALL TERMINALS. SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS  
OUR AREA LATER THIS MORNING, WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 15-20 KTS  
POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION [401 AM EDT]
 
 
   
NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]
 
 
WEDNESDAY EVENING'S SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED TROPICAL STORM CINDY  
APPROACHING THE CENTRAL GULF COAST, WITH A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE  
EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM THE STORM CENTER THROUGH PANAMA CITY. THIS  
BOUNDARY MAY HAVE HELPED A FEW OF THE WEAKLY-ROTATING CONVECTIVE  
CELLS TO ACQUIRE TIGHTER LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS OVER OUR WESTERN  
ZONES, BUT RECENT TRENDS AND THE RAP HAS THIS FEATURE WEAKENING  
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, WHICH SHOULD REDUCE THE THREAT OF  
TORNADOES.  
 
THE NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE (AND  
DRIER MID TROPOSPHERIC AIR) DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA  
TODAY. OUR RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TO 20% ACROSS MUCH OF OUR  
FORECAST AREA. THERE WILL BE MORE SUN THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS SO HIGH  
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S.  
 
   
SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]
 
 
A DEEP-LAYER AND DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR FORECAST  
AREA THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. POPS WILL BE 30% OR LESS, WITH THE  
GREATEST RAIN CHANCES DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. BY LATE SATURDAY A  
DEEP-LAYER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.  
INCREASING MOISTURE AND Q-G FORCING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL LEAD  
TO HIGHER POPS AROUND DOTHAN AND ALBANY (50%) SATURDAY AFTERNOON,  
WITH 20-30% POPS ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE, WITH  
LOWS IN THE 70S AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.  
 
   
LONG TERM [SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY]
 
 
RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO NEAR CLIMO LEVELS FOR MOST OF OUR REGION  
BY SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IN THE  
VICINITY. THE GLOBAL ARE SPLIT AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THE ACCOMPANYING  
SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA TO  
BRING DRIER, SINKING AIR (AND LOW POPS) TO SOME OR ALL OF OUR  
REGION, SO WE WILL BLEND THE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS AND CALL FOR  
SOMEWHAT BELOW-AVERAGE POPS AND TEMPERATURES TEMPERATURES BEYOND  
MONDAY, ESPECIALLY FROM TALLAHASSEE NORTH AND WESTWARD WHERE THERE  
IS A GREATER CHANCE OF DRYING.  
 
   
MARINE
 
 
WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM EAST TO WEST TODAY, AS  
TROPICAL STORM CINDY MOVES ASHORE AND WEAKENS. HOWEVER, HIGH SURF  
AND FREQUENT RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. A RETURN TO LOW  
WINDS AND SEAS IS EXPECTED BY THIS WEEKEND AS A SURFACE RIDGE  
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MARINE AREA.  
 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
NO CONCERNS.  
 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
HEAVY RAIN REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING, MAINLY WEST OF PANAMA CITY  
AND DOTHAN. HOWEVER THE THREAT OF FLOODING IS TOO LOW FOR A FLOOD  
WATCH. FORTUNATELY ORGANIZED HEAVY RAIN IS UNLIKELY THROUGH EARLY  
NEXT WEEK, SO WIDESPREAD RIVER FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING IS NOT  
ANTICIPATED.  
 
DESPITE THE RECENT RAINS, SOME OF WHICH WAS LOCALLY HEAVY ON TUESDAY  
AND WEDNESDAY, THE LATEST RIVER MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT HAVE ANY OF  
OUR RIVERS GOING TO FLOOD STAGE. HOWEVER, A FEW SITES MAY GET CLOSE  
ALONG SOME OF THE SMALLER RIVERS , MAINLY THE SHOAL RIVER AT MOSSY  
HEAD, AND BRUCE CREEK NEAR RED BAY.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
TALLAHASSEE 90 75 91 73 92 / 20 10 30 10 30  
PANAMA CITY 86 77 87 77 87 / 30 10 20 10 20  
DOTHAN 87 74 91 74 90 / 40 10 20 10 50  
ALBANY 90 74 92 75 91 / 30 10 30 10 40  
VALDOSTA 92 75 93 74 94 / 20 10 30 10 30  
CROSS CITY 92 74 91 73 91 / 20 30 20 10 20  
APALACHICOLA 87 79 87 78 88 / 10 10 20 10 10  
 

 
   
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL BAY-  
COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL GULF-SOUTH WALTON.  
 
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ FRIDAY FOR  
COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-SOUTH WALTON.  
 
GA...NONE.  
AL...NONE.  
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR APALACHEE  
BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE  
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER  
TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM  
SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM  
SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS  
FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM  
APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.  
 

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...FOURNIER  
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER  
LONG TERM...FOURNIER  
AVIATION...LAHR  
MARINE...FOURNIER  
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER  
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER  
 
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