489
FXUS62 KTAE 191730
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
130 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2024
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1043 AM EDT FRI APR 19 2024
KNOCKED DOWN TEMPERATURES A TAD FOR THE COUNTIES ALONG THE FLINT
AND APALACHICOLA RIVER BASINS DUE TO PERSISTENT STRATUS CLOUD
COVER OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL POSSIBLY LEAD TO LOWER MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THIS AREA TODAY. FOR AREAS OUTSIDE OF THESE
ZONES, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT FRI APR 19 2024
MORNING SATELLITE DEPICTS AN AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE CLEARING LINE BEHIND THE CLOUDS WORKING
INTO OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES. ALSO, FOG AND STRATUS CLOUDS ARE
DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND WORKING IN BEHIND THE HIGH
CLOUD DEPARTURE. A VARIETY OF SHORT RANGE MODELS DEPICT THIS TO
CONTINUE WITH FOG DEVELOPMENT CONTINUING EASTWARD TOWARDS
TALLAHASSEE AND WEST OF ALBANY. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN THIS
MORNING AND HOW DENSE THE FOG BECOMES AND IF A ADVISORY WILL BE
NEEDED. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO
BE IN OUR FLORIDA COUNTIES. FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING.
AFTERWARDS, EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS IN
PLACE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE POSITIONED ROUGHLY
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ROW COUNTIES BY DAWN SATURDAY MORNING. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT AS LOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN DRY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WHAT CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT
IS ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG DEVELOPMENT, ROUGHLY IN THE SAME AREAS AS
THIS MORNING.
INLAND TEMPERATURES TODAY AWAY FROM THE COAST WILL BE WELL INTO
THE 80S INTO THE LOWER 90S WITH WEST WINDS. THE SEABREEZE DEVELOPS
AND MOVES INLAND LATER TODAY, SWITCHING WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I10 BEFORE IT BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE
TOWARDS SUNSET. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 60S.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT FRI APR 19 2024
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (ABOUT 30%) WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH OUR ALABAMA AND GEORGIA
COUNTIES. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-10 FOR SATURDAY. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY BECOME
STRONG OR SEVERE WITH POSSIBLE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE MAIN
CONCERN. A SIMILAR SET-UP IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY, BUT WILL BE MORE
WIDESPREAD AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES BEHIND A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. POPS INCREASE TO ABOUT 70% FOR OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES
WITH ABOUT 40-60% FOR THE TRI-STATE REGION ON SUNDAY. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS, HOWEVER, EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MAKES ITS WAY
THROUGH THE REGION, ALONG WITH LOWER INSTABILITY. THE AMOUNT OF
RAINFALL ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 1.0 INCHES.
THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO WORTH NOTING. TEMPERATURES
ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOW 90S FOR OUR
INLAND AREAS FOR THE AFTERNOON HIGHS, WHICH RANGES ALONG 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL FOR APRIL 20TH. ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST, LOW TO MID 80S ARE EXPECTED. SUNDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR THE BIG BEND REGION, AS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ON SUNDAY DUE TO THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PASSING THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY, BUT NOT MAKING
IT ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE CWA BY THE END OF THE DAY.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT FRI APR 19 2024
THE FRONT WILL COMPLETE ITS PASSAGE THROUGH THE CWA SUNDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS, CLEARING OUT THE RAIN AND BRINGING IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. A SURFACE
HIGH WILL BUILD FOLLOWING THE FRONT BRINGING US CLEARING SKIES AND
GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES FOR THE LONG TERM. MONDAY WILL BE
SEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID-70S, AND A GRADUAL
CLIMB BACK TO THE MID 80S BY MIDWEEK. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL START IN THE LOW 50S MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING, AND WILL
GRADUALLY WARM TO THE UPPER 50S BY THE END OF THE TERM. PRECIP
CHANCES AFTER MONDAY ARE MINIMAL.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2024
VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY,
AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE REGION.
ANOTHER LOW CLOUD DECK, AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES LOOK TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE, BIG BEND, AND SE ALABAMA DURING THE
LATE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MVFR TO LIFR RESTRICTIONS AT ECP, TLH, AND DHN. ABY AND VLD LOOK
TO REMAIN AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD; HOWEVER, SOME
REDUCED CIGS COULD DEVELOP AT ABY IN THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD
BEFORE QUICKLY LIFTING. THE RESTRICTIONS AT ECP, TLH, AND DHN LOOK
TO LINGER THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS BEFORE LIFTING JUST PRIOR
TO THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD ON SATURDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT FRI APR 19 2024
BOATING CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH, A COLD FRONT WILL BE AFFECTING OUR MARINE ZONES BY
SUNDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS, YET SHOULD BE
BRIEF. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF
CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING
HOURS ON MONDAY. AFTER THE FRONT, FAVORABLE CONDITIONS RETURN WITH
SEAS OF 1-2 FEET WITH WINDS AVERAGING AROUND 5-10 KNOTS BY
MIDWEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT FRI APR 19 2024
PATCHY FOG IS THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL MORNINGS,
ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND OUR FLORIDA ZONES. PATCHY
DENSE FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE. WARMING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO
THE UPPER 80S AND SOME LOWER 90S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES CAN BE
EXPECTED TODAY INTO SATURDAY. AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE LOOKS TO MOVE
INLAND EACH DAY TURNING WEST WINDS TO SOUTHWESTERLY BEHIND IT
THROUGH THE FLORIDA ZONES SOUTH OF I10. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
TONIGHT AND IS DRAPED NORTH OF THE FLORIDA COUNTIES SATURDAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THESE
LOCATIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT FRI APR 19 2024
RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE SYSTEMS WILL BE MOVING SOMEWHAT QUICKLY WITH RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 1.0 INCHES, ALTHOUGH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY BE POSSIBLE.
THE AREAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS FOR LEON COUNTY FOR THE AREAS OF
CAPITOLA, CHAIRES, AND BAUM OF NORTHEAST TALLAHASSEE. COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTS HAZARDOUS STANDING WATER AND SEVERAL
ROADWAYS REMAIN CLOSED.
IN ADDITION TO THE APALACHICOLA, ST MARKS, WITHLACOOCHEE,
AUCILLA, AND OCHLOCKONEE RIVERS REMAINING IN FLOOD, THE SUWANEE
HAS NOW RISEN INTO FLOOD AT ROCK CREEK, LURAVILLE, AND BRANFORD.
EXPECT POSSIBLE RISES TO CONTINUE DOWN THE SUWANNEE WITH
ADDITIONAL POINTS POSSIBLY REACHING FLOOD IN THE DAYS AHEAD.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 65 89 65 83 / 0 20 10 50
PANAMA CITY 66 82 66 78 / 0 10 10 60
DOTHAN 65 85 63 73 / 0 40 20 70
ALBANY 65 87 63 75 / 0 30 20 70
VALDOSTA 65 89 66 83 / 0 30 10 50
CROSS CITY 62 87 63 83 / 0 0 0 20
APALACHICOLA 66 78 67 77 / 0 10 0 40
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ108-112-114.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM...SCHOLL
SHORT TERM...MONTGOMERY
LONG TERM....MONTGOMERY
AVIATION...BUNKER
MARINE...MONTGOMERY
FIRE WEATHER...SCHOLL
HYDROLOGY...MONTGOMERY
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