465  
FXUS62 KTAE 241807  
AFDTAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL  
207 PM EDT SUN SEP 24 2017  
   
AVIATION [THROUGH 18Z MONDAY]
 
 
SCATTERED OFFSHORE AND NEARSHORE STORMS MAY IMPACT ECP THIS  
AFTERNOON AND GUSTY WINDS (15-20 KTS) WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE NEAR  
ECP, AS WELL AS NEAR DHN AND ABY. OTHERWISE, EXPECT VFR VSBYS AND  
CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WITH FROM THE EAST.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION [1153 AM EDT]
 
 
   
NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]
 
 
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER WESTWARD TODAY TOWARD  
MISSISSIPPI, MEANWHILE LOW LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER  
THE EASTERN CONUS, WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE  
COASTAL WATERS. THE BEST COMBINATION OF MOISTURE, FORCING, AND  
INSTABILITY TODAY IS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS AND ALONG THE  
PANHANDLE COASTLINE. WITH MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM,  
THERE'S ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN PLACE FOR A FEW STORMS TO BE ABLE TO  
PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL OR DOWNBURSTS OF WINDS, DESPITE  
LOW SHEAR. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.  
 
   
SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]
 
 
A SEMI-CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WILL STALL OVER ALABAMA AND  
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, AND THEN  
GRADUALLY DRIFT EASTWARD OVER OUR AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. HURRICANE  
MARIA WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE OF THE ATLANTIC COAST AS IT MOVES  
NORTHWARD EAST OF THIS FEATURE, AND WILL BRING NO IMPACTS TO OUR  
AREA. ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, FORCING FROM THE  
UPPER LOW/TROUGH COMBINED WITH DECENT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS  
OUR WESTERN AREAS (PWAT VALUES OVER 1.5") AND SBCAPE UP TO  
1000-1500 J/KG DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE AND PARTS OF SE  
ALABAMA. ELSEWHERE, MID- LEVEL DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT  
INTO OUR AREA UNDER LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY/NORTHERLY FLOW, WHICH WILL  
LIKELY LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. EXPECT HIGH  
TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 INLAND EACH DAY, WITH MID-UPPER 80S ALONG  
THE GULF COAST.  
 
   
LONG TERM [TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY]
 
 
THE UPPER LOW MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION WILL  
GRADUALLY DRIFT SOUTH OF OUR AREA OVER THE FL PENINSULA ON  
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, AND DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL VERIFIES IT  
SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER THE FL PENINSULA OR EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  
EITHER WAY, DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO OUR AREA UNDER  
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND AS A RESULT DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.  
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, THIS UPPER LOW SHOULD GRADUALLY BE  
ABSORBED INTO A LARGER SCALE TROUGH AS IT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN  
CONUS. AS THIS OCCURS, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO  
OUR AREA, ALTHOUGH LATEST MODELS SUGGEST THIS FEATURE COULD STALL  
OUT NEAR OR JUST SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA DURING THE WEEKEND.  
THEREFORE, SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS WERE MAINTAINED FROM  
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA, AS MODELS ARE  
SUGGESTING THAT ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY COULD REMAIN  
PRESENT THROUGHOUT THIS TIME FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS. LEFT OUR NORTHERN AREAS DRY ON SATURDAY AS DRIEST  
AIR SHOULD MOVE INTO SE ALABAMA AND PARTS OF SW GEORGIA.  
 
HOT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH  
INLAND HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S, WITH A SLIGHT COOLDOWN IN  
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT DURING THE WEEKEND WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN  
THE MID 80S. LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S AHEAD  
OF THE FRONT, POSSIBLY DROPPING TO LOWER-MID 60S DURING THE  
WEEKEND AS A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS MOVES INTO OUR AREA.  
 
   
MARINE
 
 
EASTERLY WINDS FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT,  
WITH SEAS FROM 2 TO 3 FEET TODAY DROPPING TO 2 FEET OR LESS DURING  
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGHOUT  
THE WEEK, GENERALLY AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS OR LESS.  
 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  
 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND MONDAY  
FROM NORTH FLORIDA INTO SE ALABAMA, BUT ANY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE  
ISOLATED AND VERY BRIEF. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED  
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THEREFORE, NO FLOODING IS  
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  
 
   
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
 
 
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS  
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY  
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
TALLAHASSEE 70 88 69 91 71 / 10 10 0 0 0  
PANAMA CITY 73 87 73 88 74 / 10 30 10 10 0  
DOTHAN 68 88 67 91 69 / 0 20 0 0 0  
ALBANY 69 90 67 91 70 / 0 10 0 0 0  
VALDOSTA 68 88 67 89 70 / 0 10 0 0 0  
CROSS CITY 70 89 70 89 71 / 10 10 0 0 0  
APALACHICOLA 73 86 73 88 74 / 20 20 10 10 0  
 

 
   
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...NONE.  
GA...NONE.  
AL...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...MOORE  
SHORT TERM...LAHR  
LONG TERM...LAHR  
AVIATION...MOORE  
MARINE...LAHR  
FIRE WEATHER...SCHOLL  
HYDROLOGY...LAHR  
 
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