600  
FXUS62 KTAE 262353  
AFDTAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL  
753 PM EDT THU APR 26 2018  
   
AVIATION [THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY]
 
 
MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS LATER THIS EVENING AND  
OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY AT DHN AND VLD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN  
AT ALL TERMINALS SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE  
NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION [244 PM EDT]
 
 
   
NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]
 
 
IN THE UPPER LEVELS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE  
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT  
WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RAIN  
AND RAIN SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVING INTO SE  
ALABAMA AND PANHANDLE FLORIDA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AS INSTABILITY  
INCREASES WITH DAYTIME HEATING THIS AFTERNOON, ISOLATED  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A FEW  
STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE. CAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG IS POSSIBLE  
ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS. SPC HAS A MARGINAL  
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IN SE ALABAMA AND PARTS OF SW GEORGIA. IF  
STORMS MANAGE TO GET ORGANIZED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE  
POSSIBLE.  
 
TONIGHT SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF SW AND  
SC GEORGIA. SOME SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP NEAR EASTERN BIG BEND FLORIDA  
LATE TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S.  
 
   
SHORT TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]
 
 
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STRETCH ACROSS MUCH OF THE  
EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, KEEPING THE FLOW  
ALOFT OF THE AREA WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY. AT THE LOWER LEVELS, A  
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND  
TENNESSEE VALLEYS, WITH MOSTLY NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. THIS  
PATTERN WILL KEEP US WARM AND DRY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO  
LOW 80S AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S.  
 
   
LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]
 
 
DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE  
PERIOD. A RETURN FLOW OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL START EARLY NEXT  
WEEK, BUT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LOW. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL  
BE BELOW 20% NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS  
TIME OF YEAR, WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WARMING TO THE LOW-MID 80S  
AND MORNING LOWS DIPPING INTO THE LOW 60S TO MID-UPPER 50S.  
 
   
MARINE
 
 
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT, BUT WILL EXIT THE AREA  
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MODERATE WINDS FROM THE WEST WILL BECOME  
NORTHERLY ON SUNDAY AND THEN EASTERLY ON MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH  
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. EARLY NEXT WEEK, EASTERLY  
WIND SURGES TO CAUTIONARY OR ADVISORY LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE.  
 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
HIGH DISPERSION VALUES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND  
COUNTIES BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, NO FIRE  
WEATHER CONCERNS.  
 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN SOUTHEAST AL  
AND SOUTHWEST GA WILL REMAIN BELOW 0.5". AFTER THAT, NO ADDITIONAL  
RAINFALL IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE, FLOODING IS NOT A  
CONCERN.  
 
   
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
 
 
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS  
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY  
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
TALLAHASSEE 58 79 54 81 57 / 10 0 0 0 0  
PANAMA CITY 60 75 60 74 61 / 10 0 0 0 0  
DOTHAN 54 77 54 80 56 / 10 0 0 0 0  
ALBANY 55 76 54 79 56 / 30 0 0 0 0  
VALDOSTA 59 78 54 80 56 / 10 0 0 0 0  
CROSS CITY 63 79 56 81 59 / 30 10 0 0 0  
APALACHICOLA 61 76 59 75 61 / 10 0 0 0 0  
 

 
   
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ FRIDAY FOR  
COASTAL BAY-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL GULF-SOUTH WALTON.  
 
GA...NONE.  
AL...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...MCD  
SHORT TERM...NGUYEN  
LONG TERM...NGUYEN  
AVIATION...BARRY  
MARINE...NGUYEN  
FIRE WEATHER...SCHOLL  
HYDROLOGY...NGUYEN  
 
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