117  
FXUS62 KTAE 251045  
AFDTAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL  
645 AM EDT SAT MAR 25 2017  
   
AVIATION [THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY]
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA  
PANHANDLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LIGHT RAIN WILL  
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FOR DHN, ECP, AND ABY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE  
GUSTY TODAY ESPECIALLY NEAR DHN AND ECP.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION [333 AM EDT]
 
 
   
NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]
 
 
IN THE UPPER LEVELS A CUT-OFF LOW WILL BE OVER MO TODAY. THE  
ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AT THE  
SURFACE A LOW OVER MO WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST. THE ASSOCIATED  
COLD FRONT WILL STAY WELL TO OUR NORTH. AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS  
MS AND AL A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY  
DEVELOP. THIS LINE WILL LIKELY WEAKEN BEFORE IT GETS TO THIS REGION  
AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WEAKENS AND DAYTIME HEATING ENDS. SHOWERS  
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING  
HOURS MAINLY IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA (WHERE  
CAPE UP TO 900 J/KG IS EXPECTED). SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK OUTLINED  
WEST OF A LINE FROM DOTHAN TO PANAMA CITY.  
 
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT GUSTY TODAY PARTICULARLY IN THE  
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER  
70S IN AREAS WITH MORE CLOUD COVER (SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND FLORIDA  
PANHANDLE). HIGHS WILL BE NEAR 80 ELSEWHERE.  
 
   
SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY]
 
 
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE  
CWA IN THE EVENING HOURS. INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY AROUND  
SUNSET AND THEREAFTER WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30-40 KNOTS.  
WITH THE MARGINAL RISK OUTLINED ABOVE, THERE IS A SLIGHT  
POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS SE ALABAMA  
AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE EARLY IN THE EVENING. THE LINE  
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITH TIME BECOMING MORE ISOLATED EARLY SUNDAY  
MORNING. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING BUT  
ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY HANG AROUND FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS INTO SUNDAY  
AFTERNOON. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND IN-BETWEEN SYSTEMS. MONDAY  
WILL BRING A FAST MOVING SYSTEM ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER  
VALLEY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS SE ALABAMA AND SW  
GEORGIA MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS FOR THIS PERIOD WILL MAINLY BE IN  
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.  
 
   
LONG TERM [MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]
 
 
THE EARLY WORK WEEK SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE CWA  
WHICH WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL  
SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP  
WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES BACK NORTH AS A WARM WEDNESDAY  
NIGHT. THURSDAY APPEARS DRY AND IN-BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH THE NEXT  
SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM  
BEARS WATCHING AS IT WILL HAVE BETTER SUPPORT WITH IT AS OPPOSED  
TO THE SYSTEM EARLIER IN THE WEEK.  
 
   
MARINE
 
 
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM  
MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY SO  
WINDS WILL BE SLOWLY DECREASING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BEGINNING SUNDAY WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE  
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND DECREASING SEAS.  
 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
RH VALUES WILL STAY ABOVE RED FLAG CRITERIA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL  
DAYS. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN WESTERN  
PARTS OF THE REGION.  
 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
AREA RIVERS ARE WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE CURRENTLY. STORM TOTAL  
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE AROUND AN INCH OR  
LESS AND THE HEAVIEST OF THESE AMOUNTS WILL FAVOR SE ALABAMA AND  
THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH THIS  
NEXT SYSTEM.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
TALLAHASSEE 79 59 80 58 82 / 10 30 20 0 10  
PANAMA CITY 73 65 75 63 75 / 30 50 20 0 10  
DOTHAN 78 61 80 61 81 / 40 50 30 10 10  
ALBANY 80 61 82 60 83 / 20 40 30 10 20  
VALDOSTA 81 59 82 58 83 / 10 20 30 10 20  
CROSS CITY 81 59 81 57 81 / 10 20 20 0 10  
APALACHICOLA 75 63 76 61 76 / 20 40 20 0 10  
 

 
   
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL BAY-SOUTH  
WALTON.  
 
GA...NONE.  
AL...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT  
SHORT TERM...SCHOLL  
LONG TERM...SCHOLL  
AVIATION...MCDERMOTT  
MARINE...SCHOLL  
FIRE WEATHER...MCDERMOTT  
HYDROLOGY...SCHOLL  
 
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