876  
FXUS62 KTAE 171837  
AFDTAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL  
237 PM EDT SUN JUN 17 2018  
   
NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]
 
 
THE SEABREEZE AND A CONVERGENT AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL AL/GA WILL BE THE  
PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISMS FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. WITH  
RELATIVELY LIGHT STEERING FLOW, THE SEABREEZE WILL MOST LIKELY BE  
CONFINED TO NORTH FL. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS RESULTING IN A WEAK  
SURFACE REFLECTION THROUGH CENTRAL AL AND GA, WITH OUTFLOW FROM  
CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH TRIGGERING NEW STORMS IN OUR REGION. EXPECT  
A GRADUAL DIMINISHING OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AFTER  
SUNSET, WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.  
 
   
SHORT TERM [MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]
 
 
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD  
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US. THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCES THIS MODEL  
CYCLE WITH WHETHER THERE WILL BE AN INFLUX OF DRIER AIR FROM THE  
EAST TO REALLY DIMINISH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. IN ANY EVENT, THE  
OVERALL STEERING FLOW SUGGESTS A LIGHT AND VARIABLE SEA BREEZE  
PATTERN WHICH TENDS TO PRODUCE ABOUT 30-40 PERCENT POPS EACH DAY.  
WITH THE EURO A LITTLE DRIER THAN THE GFS (WHICH WAS DRIER  
YESTERDAY), WILL TREND THE FORECAST SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE LOWER SIDE  
OF CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL  
ALSO BE A LITTLE WARMER, GIVEN LESS CONVECTION, WITH POCKETS OF  
MID 90S POSSIBLE EACH DAY.  
 
   
LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]
 
 
OVERALL, THE WEAK RIDGING LOOKS TO HOLD ON THROUGH THURSDAY, BUT  
THEN A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON  
FRIDAY SHOULD RESULT IN SOME WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE AT LEAST INTO  
SATURDAY, WHICH WILL FAVOR SOME INCREASE IN AFTERNOON/EVENING RAIN  
CHANCES. BY SUNDAY, RIDGING IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD OVER THE GULF  
OF MEXICO, SHIFTING THE BULK OF ANY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS  
TO THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.  
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S  
DURING THE DAY AND IN THE LOWER 70S AT NIGHT.  
 

 
   
AVIATION [THROUGH 18Z MONDAY]
 
 
MVFR WILL PREVAIL FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AT ABY BEFORE SCATTERING TO  
VFR. ELSEWHERE, VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF OUTSIDE OF  
THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY AT ECP, DHN, AND VLD.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SOME  
LOCALIZED ENHANCEMENTS NEAR THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON CAN BE  
EXPECTED WITH THE DAILY SEA BREEZE.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN IS EXPECTED, WHICH WILL KEEP ANY  
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOW. HOWEVER, AS THE STEERING FLOW  
BECOMES WEAKER BY THE FIRST OF THE WEEK, ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL  
IS POSSIBLE FROM STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.  
 

 
   
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
 
 
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS  
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY  
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
TALLAHASSEE 72 94 73 94 74 / 30 30 20 40 20  
PANAMA CITY 76 91 74 91 75 / 10 20 10 20 10  
DOTHAN 72 92 71 94 73 / 20 20 20 30 20  
ALBANY 72 91 72 92 72 / 30 40 20 40 30  
VALDOSTA 71 92 72 93 73 / 50 40 30 40 30  
CROSS CITY 72 93 72 92 73 / 30 30 20 30 10  
APALACHICOLA 75 91 75 91 76 / 10 20 10 20 10  
 

 
   
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ MONDAY FOR  
COASTAL BAY-SOUTH WALTON.  
 
GA...NONE.  
AL...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN  
SHORT TERM...GODSEY  
LONG TERM...GODSEY  
AVIATION...HARRIGAN  
MARINE...GODSEY  
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY  
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY  
 
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