987
FXUS62 KTAE 090727
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
310 AM EDT WED 92008
SYNOPSIS
AT 3 PM EDT..IT WAS CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS LOCAL AREA. RADAR
INDICATED A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NEARSHORE PANHANDLE WATERS. TEMPS
RANGED FROM AROUND 70 INLAND TO NEAR 80 PANHANDLE COAST. WINDS WERE
GENERALLY CALM.
AT UPPER LEVELS...
LOOKING AT THE BIG PIX...MAIN ACTION IN NRN STREAM HIGHLIGHTED BY
LARGE SCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES/PAC
NW/NORTHERN ROCKIES...PERSISTENT AND FAIRLY STRONG SUBTROPICAL
RIDGING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH ACROSS NRN
MIDSECTION...AND A RIDGE THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE
GULF COAST STATES. MODERATE TO STRONG MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL
REMAIN CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN TIER STATES. MAIN MID-CONUS TROUGH
AXIS TO MOVE FROM MS VALLEY THIS MORNING TO LWR GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTN AND TO NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z THURS. SRN STREAM CONTINUES TO BE
DOMINATED BY BROAD SBTRPCL HIGH CENTERED OVER CNTRL GULF COAST.
CLOSER TO HOME...
UPPER/MID LEVEL TROUGH SYSTEM WHICH DOMINATED MUCH OF THE EASTERN
SEA BOARD IS NOW SLOWLY MIGRATING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC AND
BY THURSDAY WILL DRAG THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AWAY FROM THE REGION. IN ITS WAKE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN ESTABLISHING AT THE MID LEVELS OVER THE GULF AND
FLORIDA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALONG
WITH DRIER AND SUBSIDENT AIR REPLACING THE PREVAILING MOIST AIRMASS.
AT LOWER LEVELS...
LOOKING AT THE BIG PIX...MAIN WX FOCUS WILL ABOVE EWD MOVING TROUGH
ACTING ON COLD FRONT. FRONT LOCATED FROM LOW IN ONTARIO SWWD TO LOW
IN SRN GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO OK. BY THIS EVENING...FRONT WILL HAVE
MOVED RAPIDLY SEWD TO A LINE FROM WRN NY INTO OH VALLEY.
CLOSER TO HOME...
TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST OF THE AREA WITH AXIS IN ERN
ALA. E OF THE AXIS...SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST ACROSS
GULF. IN ITS WAKE...HGIH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WWD FROM ATLC WITH
RIDGE AND WEAK GRADIENT DOMINATING REST OF WORK WEEK. STILL...
REGIONAL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE I.E.
00Z TAE...JAX...FFC AND BHM SOUNDINGS ALL WITH BETWEEN 1.7 AND 1.8
INCH PWATS. ALTHOUGH SOME DRYING AT MID-UPPER LEVELS...MODEL
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW SW/WSW FLOW AND HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTENTS THRU REST OF WORKWEEK. I.E. GFS TAE SOUNDING WITH ONLY SLOW
DECREASE FROM 2.07 IN PWAT 18Z WED DOWN TO 1.83 IN PWAT 18Z FRI.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY).
ALTHOUGH GFS AND NAM ARE CLOSE IN TEMPS...GFS CONTINUES WETTER AND
BASED ON RECENT TRENDS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THIS MODEL THUS POP
FORECAST WILL USE LOCAL SEABREEZE CLIMATOLOGY TOOL WITH BLEND OF
GFS.
TODAY...TYPE 5 SEA BREEZE PATTERN (AND ONE OF OUR MOST ACTIVE ONES).
FAVORS WRN PANHANDLE/SE ALA. WITH THE INFLUENCE OF DRIER MID LEVEL
MOVING INTO CWA FROM NE...WILL SHOW LOWEST POPS NE TIER OF GA
COUNTIES. WITH TROPICAL WAVE NOW WELL WEST OF SUWANEE RIVER..WILL
UNDERCUT SOME POPS ACROSS SE BIG BEND. THUS...HAVE PLACED 60 POPS
IN FLA PANHANDLE TAPERING DOWN TO 40 PERCENT IN THE NE GA AND SE BIG
BEND.
THURSDAY...TYPE 4/5 SEABREEZE FLOW. SLIGHTLY LIGHTER SOUTHWEST FLOW
AND A LITTLE MORE DRY MID LEVEL AIR WILL CREATE LOWER POPS.
DISTRIBUTION OF 50 POPS IN FLA BIG BEND AND 40 POPS ELSEWHERE.
FRIDAY...TYPE 4 WITH A MORE WLY AND DRIER COMPONENT. SO 30 PCT POPS
FLA AND 40 PCT GA/ALA.
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR CLIMO
WITH MAX AROUND 90 INLAND AND MINS LOW 70S.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE UPPER RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO BE CENTERED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD AND RETROGRADE INTO TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO OVER THE
WEEKEND AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE...A TROUGH IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DEEPEN OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. WITH THE AXIS SWINGING OFF THE SE U.S. COAST MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONT/TROUGH WILL SAG INTO
THE CWA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE GFS ALSO SHOWS AN EAST TO WEST SWATCH
OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS
MOISTURE AND SURFACE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO GET NUDGED TO OUR SOUTH
AND EAST LATE MONDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS DEEP
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DRIVES A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE AREA ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING TROUGH. IF THE GFS VERIFIES...POPS FOR
TUESDAY WOULD BE SLIGHT TO NIL. THE GFS DOES SHOW A POSSIBLE MCS
DROPPING TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AND WILL JUST SHOW A
SLIGHT DIMINISHING TREND FOR POPS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
MARINE...OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION
A FEW PATCHES OF MVFR VSBY AND/OR CIGS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT PFN. ANY
CIG/VIS RESTRICTIONS WILL CLEAR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH 2-4KFT CU
FIELD DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING. SCT SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP LATE
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR KPFN AND KTLH AND THEN SPREAD
FURTHER INLAND TO IMPACT THE KDHN...KVLD AND KABY TAF SITES IN THE
MIDDLE TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE MOIST TROPICAL
ENVIRONMENT THAT IS PRESENT IN OUR REGION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 90 71 92 71 / 60 20 50 20
PANAMA CITY 88 75 89 75 / 50 20 40 20
DOTHAN 89 72 90 73 / 50 20 50 20
ALBANY 92 72 92 72 / 40 20 40 30
VALDOSTA 90 71 92 71 / 60 20 40 20
CROSS CITY 91 71 92 70 / 40 20 40 20
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
LONG TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WX...BARRY
PUBLIC/MARINE...BLOCK
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