277  
FXUS62 KTAE 270527  
AFDTAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL  
127 AM EDT THU JUL 27 2017  
   
AVIATION [THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY]
 
 
IFR CIGS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL  
GA AND NORTH FL, AND LIFR CIGS WILL AFFECT KVLD UNTIL MID  
MORNING. PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR VIS ARE ALSO LIKELY. THERE IS GOOD  
AGREEMENT AMONG THE LATEST HIGH-RES NWP GUIDANCE IN KEEPING THESE  
LOW CIGS JUST EAST OF KABY AND KTLH, BUT IT WILL BE VERY CLOSE,  
AND WE ARE FORECASTING PERIODS OF LOW-END MVFR CIGS/VIS AT THESE  
SITES OVERNIGHT. WE EXPECT LESS AFTERNOON/EVENING TSRA THAN WHAT  
WE'VE OBSERVED THE PAST FEW DAYS, WITH THE HIGHEST POPS AT KVLD  
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION [948 PM EDT]
 
 
   
NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]
 
 
LOW/MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE RESULTED IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM  
DEVELOPMENT IN CONVERGENT FLOW THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS MOVED INTO  
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST AND DROPPED SOUTHWEST TO THE GULF  
COAST. STORMS ALONG THE BIG BEND COAST SHOULD FIZZLE OUT SHORTLY,  
WITH LIMITED CONVECTION EXPECTED OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL  
ONCE AGAIN FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.  
 
   
SHORT TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]
 
 
THE WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE  
RAIN CHANCES FOR THURSDAY. POPS WILL BE IN THE 30-50% RANGE WITH  
THE HIGHEST IN SOUTH GEORGIA AND THE BIG BEND. BY FRIDAY UPPER  
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH.  
FRIDAY POPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER 20-40%. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE  
LOWER 90S WITH WARMER TEMPS TO THE WEST WHERE RAIN CHANCES ARE  
LOWER.  
 
   
LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]
 
 
THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
IT WILL BRING A WEAK FRONT THAT WILL INCREASE SHOWER AND  
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND. DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE BY LATE  
SUNDAY BEFORE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN MID WEEK. POPS WILL  
GENERALLY BE 30-60% WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE BIG BEND. HIGHS  
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 70S.  
 
   
MARINE
 
 
WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH THURSDAY THEN WILL  
INCREASE TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS WILL BE 3 FEET OR  
LESS.  
 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE  
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  
 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
ALL AREA RIVERS ARE BELOW FLOOD STAGE. A FEW HEAVY SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS COULD LEAD TO BRIEF LOCALIZED FLOODING.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
TALLAHASSEE 91 71 95 71 91 / 40 20 40 10 50  
PANAMA CITY 90 75 91 75 89 / 30 20 20 10 50  
DOTHAN 93 71 94 71 89 / 30 10 20 20 50  
ALBANY 90 71 95 71 90 / 30 10 20 20 50  
VALDOSTA 89 70 96 71 93 / 50 30 30 10 50  
CROSS CITY 90 71 92 72 91 / 30 30 30 10 40  
APALACHICOLA 89 74 92 74 90 / 30 20 20 10 40  
 

 
   
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...NONE.  
GA...NONE.  
AL...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN  
SHORT TERM...WESTON  
LONG TERM...WESTON  
AVIATION...FOURNIER  
MARINE...WESTON  
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN  
HYDROLOGY...WESTON  
 
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