387  
FXUS62 KTAE 190030  
AFDTAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL  
830 PM EDT SAT AUG 18 2018  
   
UPDATE
 
 
FEW CHANGES TO THE INHERITED FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING. LARGE  
COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN AL/MS  
WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS,  
WITH PORTIONS OF THE ALABAMA WIREGRASS SEEING SOME LIGHT SHOWER  
ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE, ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE FLORIDA  
PANHANDLE/BIG BEND WILL CONTINUE THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING  
HOURS. MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID  
70S.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION [721 PM EDT]
 
 
   
NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]
 
 
A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA HAS ACCENTUATED THUNDERSTORM  
ACTIVITY BETWEEN THE CHATTAHOOCHEE AND FLINT RIVERS, WITH ACTIVITY  
CONSOLIDATING INTO A LINE, INCLUDING A DECENT PRESSURE RISE/FALL  
COUPLET. THIS AREA SHOULD STABILIZE THIS EVENING WITH INCREASING  
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION (CIN). MEANWHILE, ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM  
ACTIVITY IS LIKELY FROM THE FL BIG BEND INTO SOUTHWESTERN GA THIS  
EVENING, WHERE MIXED LAYER CAPE AROUND 1.5K J/KG AND MID-LEVEL WINDS  
UP TO 20 KTS ARE COLLOCATED. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS UP 50  
MPH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS REGION. A PLUME OF PRECIPITABLE WATER  
(PW) VALUES UP TO 2.2 INCHES IS ALSO LOCATED FROM THE FL BIG BEND  
AND POINTS NORTHWEST, SO TRAINING OF STORMS ACROSS THIS AREA COULD  
LEAD TO POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS. PRECIPITATION  
WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING,  
BUT SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL THUNDER WILL PERSIST FROM THE WESTERN  
PANHANDLE OF FL SOUTH TO THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS THROUGH THE  
OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE  
NORMAL GIVEN CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER, PARTIAL CLEARING  
WILL ALSO TAKE PLACE, AND MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG.  
 
   
SHORT TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]
 
 
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE EASTERN US  
STARTING ON SUNDAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE LOCAL REGION.  
A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALSO BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WITH AN  
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK NOSING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON THE WEST  
SIDE OF THE RIDGE. THIS FORCES LOW AND MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE RIGHT  
OVER THE FL PANHANDLE. A GRADIENT OF PW VALUES WILL BE IN PLACE  
WITH AROUND 2.2" IN SE AL DOWN TO AROUND 1.5" NEAR THE BIG BEND.  
THIS LENDS TO A GRADIENT OF POPS, WITH HIGHER VALUES IN SE AL.  
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ALONG THE COAST IN THE  
MORNING AND SPREAD NORTH AND EAST. THEY WILL DIMINISH AS THEY MOVE  
EAST AWAY FROM THE MAIN LIFT AND DRIER AIR WHICH WILL SHIFT THE  
MAIN PRECIP TO THE NORTH LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE LOSS OF  
DAYTIME HEATING, THE NIGHT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY.  
 
DEEP LAYER SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS ON MONDAY ALTHOUGH THE SOUNDINGS  
ARE DRIER WITH PW VALUES FALLING BELOW 1.75." ANY STORMS THAT DO  
FORM WILL BE SEA BREEZE FORCED OR FORM OFF OUTFLOW FROM STORMS THAT  
FORM WEST OF THE CWA. MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY OUTSIDE OF OFFSHORE  
SHOWERS STARTING TO DEVELOP BY TUESDAY MORNING.  
 
WITH THE RAIN AND CLOUDS, HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO  
UPPER 80S WITH LOWER 90S FARTHER TO THE EAST. DRIER WEATHER WILL  
HELP TEMPS WARM BACK TO THE LOWER 90S ON MONDAY.  
 
   
LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]
 
 
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST ON TUESDAY  
WITH A COLD FRONT DRAGGING SOUTH BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW. WEAK LIFT  
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND ENHANCED MOISTURE IN SE AL AND THE FL  
PANHANDLE WILL INCREASE COVERAGE OF STORMS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN  
THAT AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AL BY  
00Z WEDNESDAY AND MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH OVERNIGHT. WITH LESS  
INSTABILITY, THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WON'T BE TOO HIGH  
OVERNIGHT BUT AS WE HEAT UP, COVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY WILL INCREASE  
ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WILL MOSTLY BE NEAR TALLAHASSEE AND AREAS  
EAST. MUCH DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW IT WEDNESDAY NIGHT  
WITH THE PRECIP CUTTING OFF RATHER QUICKLY WITH DEW POINTS FALLING  
TO THE UPPER 60S WHERE THEY WILL STAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THURSDAY  
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY DRY OUTSIDE OF SOME LINGERING SHOWERS NEAR  
THE BIG BEND WHERE THE FRONT WILL STALL. FRIDAY WILL SEE THE  
RETURN OF SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGHER POPS EXPECTED ON  
SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LOW MEANDERS SOUTHWARD.  
 
THE DEW POINTS MAY BE THE ONLY RELIEF WE FEEL WITH THIS FRONT  
OUTSIDE OF A DRIER DAY ON THURSDAY. HIGHS THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL  
STILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. LOWS MAY DROP TO THE UPPER  
60S WED NIGHT BUT OTHERWISE BE IN THE LOWER 70S.  
 
   
AVIATION [THROUGH 00Z MONDAY]
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AT  
ALL TAF SITES. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT  
DHN, ABY, AND VLD LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RESUME  
AFTER SUNRISE. SCT SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD INLAND  
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VSBY, AS WELL AS GUSTY AND  
ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER ANY STORMS.  
 
   
MARINE
 
 
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH  
LOW SEAS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL INCREASE TOWARD  
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS.  
 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
OUTSIDE OF MARGINALLY LOW DISPERSIONS ACROSS ISOLATED AREAS OF THE  
FL PANHANDLE, HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED  
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
TOTAL FORECAST RAIN AMOUNTS HAVE DECREASED SINCE PREVIOUS  
FORECASTS WITH AVERAGE AMOUNTS AROUND 1.5" ALONG AND WEST OF THE  
APALACHICOLA AND CHATTAHOOCHEE RIVERS OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.  
ELSEWHERE, AMOUNTS AROUND 1 INCH ARE FORECAST. THEREFORE, LATEST  
RIVER GUIDANCE KEEPS ALL RIVERS JUST BELOW ACTION STAGE. LOCALLY  
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE AND WILL LIKELY OCCUR SO FLASHIER  
RIVERS AND STREAMS MAY STILL RISE AS WELL AS LOW LYING AND FLOOD  
PRONE AREAS.  
 
   
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
 
 
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS  
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY  
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
TALLAHASSEE 74 89 73 91 74 / 30 50 20 40 10  
PANAMA CITY 77 87 76 89 76 / 40 60 40 40 20  
DOTHAN 73 87 73 89 73 / 40 60 30 40 10  
ALBANY 73 88 73 91 73 / 30 60 20 40 10  
VALDOSTA 74 91 72 92 73 / 20 40 10 20 10  
CROSS CITY 74 91 74 91 74 / 10 20 10 20 10  
APALACHICOLA 79 88 76 88 77 / 20 50 20 30 20  
 

 
   
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...NONE.  
GA...NONE.  
AL...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...PULLIN  
NEAR TERM...LF  
SHORT TERM...LN  
LONG TERM...LN  
AVIATION...PULLIN  
MARINE...LN  
FIRE WEATHER...LN  
HYDROLOGY...LN  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab FL Page
The Nexlab GA Page
The Nexlab AL Page Main Text Page