181  
FXUS62 KTAE 290000  
AFDTAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL  
800 PM EDT FRI APR 28 2017  
   
NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]
 
 
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO TONIGHT'S FORECAST, JUST MADE  
MINOR UPDATES TO REFLECT LATEST GUIDANCE ON CLOUD COVER AND  
TONIGHT'S TEMPERATURES. DRY CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO  
PREVAIL WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY MORNING, MAINLY  
FROM THE TALLAHASSEE AREA WESTWARD INTO SE ALABAMA AND THE FL  
PANHANDLE WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE NEARLY SATURATED.  
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS  
OUR AREA.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION [743 PM EDT]
 
 
   
SHORT TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]
 
 
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL  
TRANSLATE SLOWLY EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND. THE CORE OF TROUGH WILL BE  
OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, WHILE THE ATTENDANT  
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST AL AND THE FL  
PANHANDLE. UNTIL THEN LOCAL RAIN CHANCES WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN  
20% (DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS). TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE  
WITH HIGHS 85 TO 90, AND LOWS 65 TO 70.  
 
AS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT, POPS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS  
SOUTHEAST AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE, REACHING AT LEAST 50% AT DOTHAN  
AND PANAMA CITY BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE  
SUFFICIENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND BUOYANCY FOR AT LEAST SOME STORM  
ORGANIZATION, BUT DIMINISHING Q-G FORCING AND CAPE MAY MAKE  
CONDITIONS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL FOR SEVERE STORMS.  
 
   
LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]
 
 
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT/UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR  
FORECAST AREA MONDAY, BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE REGION.  
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY  
NIGHT, BUT THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE COMPLEX MID TO LATE  
WEEK AS A POSITIVE-TILT TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND  
TRANSLATES SLOWLY EASTWARD. THIS LOW WILL CLOSE OFF OVER GA OR AL  
FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT ABOUT QPF AMONG  
THE GLOBAL MODELS TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK. THE MEAN OF THE FORECASTS  
YIELDS A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH NEAR-  
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.  
 
   
AVIATION [THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY]
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS SCATTERED  
CUMULUS CLOUDS GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. LOW CLOUDS AND  
PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING, MAINLY  
FROM TLH WESTWARD ACROSS ECP AND DHN. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS COULD  
DEVELOP AT THESE TERMINALS, MAINLY AFTER 08-09Z UNTIL 12Z. MVFR  
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE MID-LATE MORNING  
HOURS AS CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE, WITH CLOUD BASES  
EXPECTED TO RISE TO VFR LEVELS BY 16-17Z. AFTER THIS OCCURS, VFR  
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE  
PERIOD.  
 
   
MARINE
 
 
A RELATIVELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MARINE  
AREA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY, WITH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS INCREASING  
TO ADVISORY LEVELS AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY WEST OF APALACHICOLA. THIS  
WILL LEAD TO HIGH SEAS AND ABOVE-NORMAL TIDES. EARLY INDICATIONS ARE  
THAT PEAK STORM TIDES OF 2 TO 3 FEET ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE  
APALACHEE BAY COAST, WITH INUNDATION OF ABOUT 1 FOOT ALONG THE  
COASTS OF THE FL PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND MONDAY.  
 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS AND PRECLUDE ANY RED  
FLAG WARNINGS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WINDS WILL BE ELEVATED OVER  
THE WEEKEND. DISPERSION VALUES WILL BE HIGH ACROSS PARTS OF THE BIG  
BEND SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EXPAND TO COVER PARTS OF THE BIG BEND,  
FLORIDA PANHANDLE, SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA ON SUNDAY  
AFTERNOON.  
 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
LOCAL RIVERS WILL REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY  
MORNING. QPF VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 0.50 TO 1 INCH RANGE  
FROM TALLAHASSEE NORTH AND WESTWARD, AND NOT ENOUGH TO CAUSE  
SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES. QPF VALUES IN NORTH FL WILL LIKELY BE  
MUCH LESS.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
TALLAHASSEE 69 88 69 86 69 / 0 10 0 0 10  
PANAMA CITY 72 82 72 81 70 / 0 10 0 0 30  
DOTHAN 70 89 69 87 68 / 0 10 0 0 50  
ALBANY 69 91 69 89 69 / 0 10 0 0 20  
VALDOSTA 67 91 67 89 68 / 10 10 10 10 20  
CROSS CITY 67 91 67 90 68 / 0 10 0 10 20  
APALACHICOLA 71 82 71 81 72 / 0 0 0 0 10  
 

 
   
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ SATURDAY FOR  
COASTAL BAY-SOUTH WALTON.  
 
GA...NONE.  
AL...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...LAHR  
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER  
LONG TERM...FOURNIER  
AVIATION...LAHR  
MARINE...FOURNIER  
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY  
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER  
 
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