757  
FXUS62 KTAE 212358  
AFDTAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL  
658 PM EST TUE NOV 21 2017  
   
AVIATION [THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY]
 
 
MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD, CLEARING WEST  
TO EAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS MAY BE EVEN LOWER IN AREAS  
WHERE FOG DEVELOPS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. IFR CONDITIONS ARE  
LIKELY AT VLD AND TLH, BUT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT ABY.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION [230 PM EST]
 
 
   
NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]
 
 
IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A DEEP TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN  
U.S. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK GULF LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF  
OF MEXICO WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN FLORIDA TONIGHT. POPS ARE  
MOSTLY 30 TO 40 PERCENT THIS EVENING AND 20 TO 30 PERCENT TONIGHT  
MAINLY EAST OF THE CHATTAHOOCHEE AND APALACHICOLA RIVERS. FOG WILL  
LIKELY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT MAINLY EAST OF THE CHATTAHOOCHEE AND  
APALACHICOLA RIVERS. FOG WILL LIKELY BE MORE DENSE IN THE EASTERN  
BIG BEND OF FLORIDA AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. SOME DRIZZLE IS  
ALSO POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER  
TO MID 50S.  
 
   
SHORT TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]
 
 
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN U.S. FOR THE  
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ENERGY OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS  
AFTERNOON WILL DIVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO, AMPLIFYING  
ALL THE WAY TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TOMORROW. THE TROUGH WILL BE  
SLOW TO MOVE EAST AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY ROTATES INTO IT. AN  
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN  
GULF OF MEXICO AS WEAK CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS NORTH OF THE YUCATAN  
PENINSULA IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE. AS THIS LOW  
APPROACHES THE IN SITU INVERTED TROUGH, IT WILL ENHANCE ISENTROPIC  
ASCENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING  
DAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE  
PRE-DAWN HOURS THURSDAY. THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST  
AREA WILL SEE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS DURING THIS TIME WITH  
POPS TAPERING QUICKLY TO HE NORTHWEST. ON THANKSGIVING DAY, POPS  
WILL RANGE FROM JUST 10 WEST OF DOTHAN TO 70 ACROSS THE  
SOUTHEASTERN BIG BEND. TALLAHASSEE WILL BE RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE. IT  
IS POSSIBLE THAT RAIN WILL END BY MIDDAY, BUT IT COULD ALSO  
LINGER LONGER THAN THAT. ONLY AREAS EAST OF TALLAHASSEE WILL SEE  
POPS LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL  
OCCUR IN THE REGIONS OF HIGHEST POP WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE  
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE. OTHERWISE, JUST LOOK FOR RAIN. HIGHS WILL  
BE AROUND 70 ON WEDNESDAY AND IN THE 60S ON THURSDAY WITH LOWS IN  
THE 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE 40S THURSDAY NIGHT.  
 
   
LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]
 
 
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE REINFORCED BY ONE MORE DECENT SHORT WAVE  
OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, THIS PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AS THE  
GULF LOW FINALLY KICK EASTWARD OR REFORMS IN THE ATLANTIC. COOL  
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT. THIS HIGH WILL BE  
OF PACIFIC ORIGIN, SO NO FREEZES ARE EXPECTED. THE COOLEST NIGHTS  
LOOK TO BE SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO  
AROUND 40 INLAND.  
 
   
MARINE
 
 
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNSETTLED OVER THE  
MARINE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AREAS WEST OF  
APALACHICOLA WILL SEE BRIEF SURGES OF WIND TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS  
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE ENTIRE ARE SEEING WINDS AT  
THAT LEVEL ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS A GULF LOW PASSES SOUTH OF THE  
WATERS. LIGHTER WINDS WILL THEN PREVAIL FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO  
SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS FOR SUNDAY.  
 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE HIGH SIDE IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND  
SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH THURSDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE  
EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.  
 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
ANY RAINS RECEIVED WITH THIS WEEK'S GULF SYSTEM WILL BE BENEFICIAL  
WITH HIGHEST 3-DAY TOTALS OF AROUND AN INCH OCCURRING OVER THE  
EASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND. NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED.  
 
   
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
 
 
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS  
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY  
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
TALLAHASSEE 56 72 57 67 49 / 40 40 70 40 10  
PANAMA CITY 55 70 54 67 51 / 20 30 50 20 10  
DOTHAN 51 69 49 65 45 / 10 10 30 20 0  
ALBANY 54 69 53 62 46 / 30 20 60 30 10  
VALDOSTA 56 71 56 63 48 / 30 40 70 60 20  
CROSS CITY 56 74 59 69 51 / 30 50 70 70 40  
APALACHICOLA 58 72 57 69 51 / 40 50 60 40 10  
 

 
   
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...NONE.  
GA...NONE.  
AL...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...MCD  
SHORT TERM...WOOL  
LONG TERM...WOOL  
AVIATION...NGUYEN  
MARINE...WOOL  
FIRE WEATHER...NGUYEN  
HYDROLOGY...WOOL  
 
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