824
FXUS64 KBMX 091142
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
542 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2010
UPDATE
AVIATION DISCUSSION.
SHORT TERM
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE LARGE AREA OF RAIN HAS ALREADY ENTERED WEST ALABAMA EARLY THIS
MORNING AND IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER THAN MODELS HAD SUGGESTED.
ADJUSTED POPS AREAWIDE TODAY TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS...AND NOW
HAVE PRECIP EXITING THE SOUTHEAST A LITTLE QUICKER THAN EARLIER
FORECAST. GENERALLY EXPECT 0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE
CWA WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO STILL DO NOT ANTICIPATE FLASH FLOODING TO
BE OF ANY CONCERN.
THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY AND WILL
EXIT TO THE EAST BY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...AND GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THEREFORE A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE REQUIRED FOR LATER TODAY.
SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND WILL REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 20S AREAWIDE BOTH
NIGHTS WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY GENERALLY IN THE 40S.
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LONG TERM
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
GULF SYSTEM WILL GOING THROUGH ITS INITIAL STAGES OF FORMATION
THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE 30S AND
INTO THE 40S IN THE AFTERNOON. ALL MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS A
SOMEWHAT SLOWER AND MUCH DRIER SOLUTION ACROSS ALABAMA. THE AIR
MASS WILL BE VERY DRY ACROSS AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE
IT HARD FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE SURFACE...SO NO
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED BEFORE SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.
THE BEST CHANGE OF SNOW WILL BE ON FRIDAY AS SURFACE LOW PASSES
PASSES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. SURPRISED TO SEE ALL
MODELS COME IN WITH A DRIER SOLUTION FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA...AS
THERE IS USUALLY ONE OUTLIER. THE NAM MODEL IS STILL SLOWER AND
KEEPS THE 1000-850MB LAYER RELATIVELY DRY...EVEN ON FRIDAY. THE
FORECAST WILL TREND POPS DOWNWARD ON FRIDAY...BUT STILL MAINTAIN
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES...WITH LIKELY POPS
FROM MONTGOMERY SOUTHWARD. THERE IS ALSO SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARD TO THERMAL PROFILES. THE NAM IS SHOWING MUCH WARMER LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS PROFILES FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN
COUNTIES...AND PRECIPITATION MAY NOT BE INTENSE ENOUGH TO CAUSE
COLUMN OF AIR TO COOL BELOW FREEZING...SO A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND
SNOW WAS INCLUDED IN THE AREA OF LIKELY POPS. THE GOOD NEWS ABOUT
LIGHTER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IS THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
RISE INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S BY 18Z FRIDAY...AND KEEP THE
ROADS JUST WET. BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST...SNOWFALL TOTALS LESS
THAN ONE-HALF INCH ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 AND ONE-HALF TO ONE
INCH SOUTH OF I-20. GIVEN THE WIDE RANGE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS THE PAST
FEW DAYS I WOULD NOT BE ALL THAT SURPRISED TO SEE MODELS TREND
BACK TOWARDS A WETTER SOLUTION AGAIN.
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL LIFT OUT QUICKLY FRIDAY EVENING AND LEFT-OVER
SNOW SHOULD END QUICKLY. SOME WRAP AROUND CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY...POSSIBLY SOME SNOW
FLURRIES AT TIMES. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE BRING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA ON SUNDAY. THE SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE
MOISTURE STARVED AND WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION
AT THIS TIME.
58/ROSE
AVIATION
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
THE LARGE AREA OF RAIN OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IS PUSHING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA RATHER QUICKLY THIS MORNING. AT
THIS TIME IT LOOKS AS IF THE PRECIP WILL EXIT THE SOUTHEAST BY
MIDDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL LOWER TO MVFR...AND POSSIBLY IFR...AS THE
RAIN MOVES THROUGH. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE MORNING AS A LOW STRATUS DECK MOVES IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...AND SHOULD RISE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
THE GREATEST CONCERN FOR AIR TRAFFIC WILL BE THE GUSTY WINDS THAT
ARE SET TO MOVE IN AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. SUSTAINED
WEST NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS
ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
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REMINDER NOTE: WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE THE LINE (AMD LTD TO VIS
WIND AND WX) FOR KEET DUE TO CONTINUED CONCERN OVER THE CEILOMETER.
THE CEILOMETER WILL BE IN TESTING PHASE THROUGH FEBRUARY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 45 22 42 23 45 / 70 10 0 0 10
ANNISTON 47 21 44 22 47 / 100 10 0 0 10
BIRMINGHAM 46 22 44 23 46 / 60 10 0 0 10
TUSCALOOSA 46 25 47 25 47 / 50 10 0 0 10
CALERA 47 24 46 24 47 / 70 10 0 0 10
AUBURN 49 22 47 22 48 / 100 10 0 0 10
MONTGOMERY 51 27 50 26 48 / 90 10 0 0 10
TROY 52 25 48 25 50 / 100 10 0 0 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY ALL COUNTIES FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
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