095  
FXUS64 KBMX 271117  
AFDBMX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL  
617 AM CDT TUE JUN 27 2017  
   
UPDATE
 
 
FOR 12Z AVIATION.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
TODAY AND TONIGHT.  
 
GOING TO START OUT WITH SOME ISOLATED VALLEY AND BODIES OF WATER  
FOG THIS MORNING, BUT WILL QUICKLY ERODE, GIVING WAY TO A  
GENERALLY SUNNY DAY. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE  
REGION AND DRY CONDITONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.  
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S  
IN THE NORTHEAST TO 60S ELSEWHERE.  
 
16  
   
LONG TERM
 
 
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.  
 
DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY TO OUR SOUTH AS A  
DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARD THE GULF COAST. ANTECEDENT RELATIVELY  
DRIER AIR SHOULD KEEP MOST OF OUR AREA DRY, BUT ISOLATED  
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES LATE  
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.  
 
MOISTURE QUALITY IS EXPECTED TO SURGE ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY  
WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE  
COMBINATION OF THE GULF DISTURBANCE MOVING INLAND AND WESTERLIES  
ALOFT INDICATIVE OF A TROUGHY PATTERN, WILL LEAD TO ENHANCEMENT OF  
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH 40-60 POPS EACH DAY.  
 
87/GRANTHAM  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.  
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ANALYZED OVER SOUTHEAST IOWA IS HELPING TO  
PROVIDE FAIR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE AREA  
THIS MORNING. SO FAR VISIBILITIES HAVE REMAINED IN VFR RANGE BUT  
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME PATCHY FG DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 2  
HOURS OR SO, WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN LOWER VIS IN SHORT TERM.  
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS EVENING AND INTO WEDNESDAY  
WITH A SHRA CHANCES AT MGM/TOI TOO LOW TO MENTION TOWARD THE END  
OF THIS CYCLE ON WEDNESDAY.  
 
05  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
 
MOSTLY RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  
ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY WILL RETURN ON THURSDAY  
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER  
CONCERNS.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
GADSDEN 85 61 87 68 85 / 0 0 10 10 50  
ANNISTON 86 63 87 69 84 / 0 0 10 10 50  
BIRMINGHAM 86 65 88 71 85 / 0 0 10 10 40  
TUSCALOOSA 88 66 89 71 87 / 0 0 10 10 40  
CALERA 87 66 88 70 85 / 0 0 10 10 50  
AUBURN 85 66 87 69 82 / 0 0 10 20 50  
MONTGOMERY 89 67 89 71 86 / 0 0 10 20 60  
TROY 87 67 87 70 83 / 0 0 20 30 60  
 

 
   
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/
 
 
NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
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