351
FXUS64 KBMX 241120
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
620 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
UPDATE
FOR 12Z AVIATION.
DISCUSSION
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG
THE EASTERN AND WESTERN CONUS WITH A RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS.
TEMPERATURES AT 2 AM RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA. THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE DUE TO A BIT OF MIXING
STILL OCCURRING IN SOME AREAS TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS THE CWA AND STRETCHES NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE
MID-ATLANTIC. THIS FRONT IS POORLY DEFINED BUT SOME WINDS ARE BEING
OBSERVED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S GENERALLY NORTH
OF THE FRONT AND IN THE 60S SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY USHERING IN COOLER
AND DRIER AIR.
PW VALUES WILL BE NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MINIMUMS TODAY WITH VALUES
AS LOW AS 0.25 INCHES. THEREFORE...EXPECT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT
TIMES WITH A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE BEHIND THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL WARM
UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE FRONT CLEARS THE CWA. FURTHER TO THE
NORTH...TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP DOWN
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. THESE FORECAST LOWS SATURDAY MORNING
WILL BE NEAR RECORD LOWS AND FOR FURTHER INFORMATION SEE THE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW. IF YOU ENJOY THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES PLEASE GET OUT
AND ENJOY THEM BEFORE THE HEAT BUILDS IN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE LOW TO MID
80S. LATEST MODELS HAVE COME IN A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE RIDGE
OVER THE WEEKEND. DUE TO THIS...MOST OF THE MCS/QLCS ACTIVITY SHOULD
STAY TO THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND. WE COULD HAVE SOME CLOUD COVER
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SYSTEMS THAT COULD MAKE THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST A BIT TRICKY. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AND
MODERATED TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. FOR MEMORIAL
DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AS
A RATHER SUBSTANTIAL RIDGE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. HAVE NOT
INCLUDED ANY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DUE TO THE OVERALL
SUBSIDENT PATTERN UNDER THE RIDGE.
05/MA
AVIATION
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH ONLY
SCATTERED HIGH CIRRUS EXPECTED. THE ONLY IMPACT WILL BE GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS...WHICH COULD GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES
FOR MOST TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE AFTER
SUNSET THIS EVENING WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
56/GDG
CLIMATE
LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY MAY 25TH.
RECORDSFORECAST
BIRMINGHAM4548
TUSCALOOSA5149
MONTGOMERY5152
ANNISTON4747
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 74 45 78 49 82 / 0 0 0 10 10
ANNISTON 75 48 80 51 83 / 0 0 0 10 10
BIRMINGHAM 76 49 81 54 85 / 0 0 0 10 10
TUSCALOOSA 81 50 82 55 86 / 0 0 0 0 10
CALERA 79 51 81 55 85 / 0 0 0 0 10
AUBURN 79 52 80 56 84 / 0 0 0 0 10
MONTGOMERY 83 52 84 56 88 / 0 0 0 0 10
TROY 83 50 83 54 87 / 0 0 0 0 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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