064
FXUS64 KBMX 070957
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
457 AM CDT SUN SEP 7 2008
DISCUSSION...BIG WEATHER PICTURE STILL FOCUSED ON THE TROPICS
BUT AS HANNA WEAKENS AND RACES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...IKE
CONTINUES TO CHURN AND BURN ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...HEADED
FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO.
A FEW FORMALITIES REGARDING THE NEXT FEW DAYS BEFORE WE GET INTO
DETAILS ON IKE. PATCHY DENSE FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID MORNING
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS
AROUND 90 AND INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR MOST FOLKS. JUST A SLIVER OF
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST...WHERE THE LINGERING
SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY TRIGGER SOME ACTION. MONDAY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE ATLANTIC COAST ON THE HEELS OF HANNA...
EXPECT TO SEE A WEDGE FRONT/EASTERLY FLOW SET UP. MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT HINTING AT PRECIP CHANCES WITH THIS BOUNDARY...AND SEE
NO REASON TO GO AGAINST THIS TREND. THE WEDGE BOUNDARY WORKS INTO
WESTERN PORTIONS LATE MONDAY...THEN STALLS AND EVENTUALLY MORPHS
INTO A A FAIRLY STOUT COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ON
TUESDAY. BIG QUESTION FOR TUESDAY WILL BE WHERE THE SUBSIDENCE
AREA FROM IKE SETS UP...AND HOW FAR SOUTHEAST THE SHOWER/
THUNDERSTORM ACTION WILL MAKE IT. RIGHT NOW I AM BETTING ON THE
SUBSIDENCE AREA WORKING INTO THE SOUTHEAST...PUTTING THE KABASH ON
ACTIVITY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 85.
CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA...IKE IS SLATED TO ENTER THE GULF OF MEXICO SOMETIME
LATE ON TUESDAY AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. WITH A FAIRLY ACTIVE
BAND OF WESTERLIES STRETCHING DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY...BELIEVE THE ULTIMATE FACTOR IN IKES PATH WILL WIND UP
BEING RELATED TO THE STRENGTH/TIMING OF SYSTEMS IN THE NORTHERN
BRANCH. OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS...MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN
THIS ONE THING...THAT IKE WILL CONTINUE MAINLY WESTWARD UNTIL
BEING CAUGHT UP IN THE WESTERLIES. UNFORTUNATELY...THERE STILL
REMAINS A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS BETWEEN THE GFS/EURO/NOGAPS AND
CANADIAN MODELS. RIGHT NOW THE TWO BASIC CAMPS SUGGEST EITHER
BUILDING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE WESTERN GULF...WHICH
EITHER STALL IKE OR TURN HIM TO THE RIGHT TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST...OR TAKE IKE TO THE WESTERN GULF AND INLAND BEFORE
RECURVATURE. CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK AT AND BEYOND DAY 5 IS STILL
NOT THAT HIGH...WITH BOTH SOLUTIONS ABOVE VIABLE.
AS FAR AS AFFECTS ON CENTRAL ALABAMA...RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE WE
WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE NORTHERLY FLOW AND THE OUTER
FRINGES OF IKE FOR THE MOMENT...WITH A BIT OF A WEAK SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD. ON THE CURRENT TRACK...DO NOT BELIEVE OUR
RAIN CHANCES ARE ALL THAT GREAT...BUT THE EFFECTS OF THE OUTER
BANDS AND INTERACTIONS WITH THE SUBSIDENCE ZONE AND CONTINENTAL
AIR MASS MAKE FOR A TRICKY POP FORECAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
JD/81
AVIATION
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
MAJOR AVIATION CONCERN HAS PROMPTED SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE
CURRENT ISSUANCE. THE LOWER CLOUDS AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE
LOOKING EXTREMELY LIKELY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HAVE DROPPED MOST LOCATIONS TO IFR CONDITIONS AFTER THE FIRST
SEVERAL HOURS OF THE PERIOD...WHILE ADDING ADDITIONAL LIFR
CONCERNS IN A TEMPO DURING THE MOST PROBLEMATIC TIMES OF THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. STILL QUESTIONING THE CLOUD COVER ASPECT DUE TO
EROSION OF CURRENT DECK JUST TO THE NORTH...BUT FEEL THAT THERE
MAY BE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN LATER HOURS. FEELING MORE
CONFIDENT ABOUT THE REDUCED VISIBILITIES...ALTHOUGH I DID GO WITH
A MORE WORST CASE SCENARIO. TOMORROW THE CLOUD DECKS ARE LOOKING
TO RAISE TO MVFR BEFORE GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS IN THE LATTER
HALF OF THE MORNING HOURS.
17/KLAWS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 90 61 91 66 87 / 0 10 10 20 40
ANNISTON 90 64 91 69 87 / 0 10 10 20 30
BIRMINGHAM 90 65 91 70 88 / 0 10 10 20 50
TUSCALOOSA 92 64 92 69 89 / 0 10 10 20 40
CALERA 91 66 91 69 88 / 0 10 10 20 40
AUBURN 90 69 90 67 87 / 10 0 20 20 20
MONTGOMERY 93 68 93 69 90 / 0 0 20 20 20
TROY 91 68 92 69 90 / 10 0 20 20 20
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY ALL ZONES THROUGH 9 AM FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG.
81/17
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